Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Yellowtail]

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

From your link: 

How much trust do you have in the Hamas-led government? 

A great deal of faith:  ~12%

Quite a lot:                  ~17%

Not a lot:                    ~23%

                                   ~52%

Not at all:                   ~45%

 

So less than half have no faith in the Hamas-led government. How can you claim that is not significant? Clearly hamas is polling better among Palestinians than President Biden is polling among Americans. 

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If somebody tells you that they have not a lot of trust in you, would you reply "Thanks for your support."?

 

 

You and others seem to be claiming that hamas has no significant support from the Palestinian people. That is clearly not true. Even if you only go with Palestinians that have a great deal or quite a lot of faith, that's still 29% of the Palestinians. You want to claim that's insignificant, but it's about 600,000 people. 

 

It is also worth noting that the only choice offered between "quite a lot", and "not at all", was not a lot. This looks like something of a polling trick to me, but whatever. 

 

In any event, the people that selected "not a lot" clearly have some faith, or they would have selected "not at all", Correct? 

 

You can keep pretending that only a few Palestinians support hamas, but the data you liked to shows otherwise. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

More from your link: 

Which party, if any, do you feel closest to?

Fatah                                     ~30%

Hamas                                   ~27%

Palestinian Islamic jihad        ~7%                

Other,                                     ~14%

No party                                 ~15%

Don't know                              ~7%

 

So combined, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad parties are the lagest voting block in Palestine, and both are terrorist groups, and both want to exterminate all the Jews in Israel, after raping many of them.

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Math challenged much? I guess other parties don't count?  And even if the total comes to  37%, does that come anywhere near a majority? What's your point?

Sorry, I will rephrase it. To be clear, combined, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad parties represent over a third of Palestinians, and both are terrorist groups, and both want to exterminate all the Jews in Israel, after raping many of them. Is that better? 

 

Nitpicking aside, the data you provided does not support your claim that the number of Palestinians that support hamas is not significant. 

 

Did you even look at it before you posted the link? Probably not, I doubt very much you actually read the stuff you link to. I'm pretty sure you just Google-up a headline and post a link. 

 

 

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Sorry, I will rephrase it. To be clear, combined, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad parties represent over a third of Palestinians, and both are terrorist groups, and both want to exterminate all the Jews in Israel, after raping many of them. Is that better? 

 

Nitpicking aside, the data you provided does not support your claim that the number of Palestinians that support hamas is not significant. 

 

Did you even look at it before you posted the link? Probably not, I doubt very much you actually read the stuff you link to. I'm pretty sure you just Google-up a headline and post a link. 

 

 

Your methodology is ridiculous. I guess to you, the glass is 1/4 full, not 3/4 empty.  When someone has "not a lot of trust", those of us who are reasonably familiar with the English language would take that as a negative response. Apparently, to you, it's a good thing.

As for me not looking at it, another of your empty unproveable allegations. You've got nothing.

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Sorry, I will rephrase it. To be clear, combined, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad parties represent over a third of Palestinians, and both are terrorist groups, and both want to exterminate all the Jews in Israel, after raping many of them. Is that better? 

 

Nitpicking aside, the data you provided does not support your claim that the number of Palestinians that support hamas is not significant. 

 

Did you even look at it before you posted the link? Probably not, I doubt very much you actually read the stuff you link to. I'm pretty sure you just Google-up a headline and post a link. 

 

 

Nowhere did I say that it was not significant. What I have pointed out is that significant is a word that can cover a multitude of percentages. It's a weasel word. It can mean pretty much what the user wants it to mean.  I did say that I would call the percentage of support that Hamas commands pitiful rather than significant.

And it's clear that you didn't carefully read the entire article, since, if you had, you would have noted that support for violence was  lower than the total support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad. 

 

[Morch]

50 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Math challenged much? I guess other parties don't count?  And even if the total comes to  37%, does that come anywhere near a majority? What's your point?

 

You're looking at it from the wrong angle. The two large blocs are rallied around either Fatah or Hamas. The Islamic Jihad sort of supports the Hamas, but it's not quite as tight an alliance, really. More indicative of a trend. The main thing to notice is the number of undecided (the 'other' label can be included, considering potential changes and shifts within, splinter factions etc.) - so what this poll shows is a three-way split. A whole lot of people not too happy with either main option, but no viable alternatives on offer.

 

Hamas's advantage over the Fatah is (provided it politically survives this war) constancy. The leadership is there, not too old, replacements in the wings. The Fatah, on the other hand is in shambles, with basically everyone waiting for Abbas to croak, and the succession struggle decided. As far as I can tell, none of the would-be-leaders is very popular. And rivalries run pretty deep, so a splintering or some crippling internal dispute are certainly options. In such a scenario, Hamas (with the caveat mentioned) stands a good chance of gaining the upper hand.

 

All this, of course, relates to popular vote. In effect, Hamas's chances of winning could be greater factoring local representative elections.

 

One of the things that could upset this, or make things more complicated is the appearance of a third party/candidate. There's a lot of talk about Marwan Barghouti as such. But in effect, even if he can stand for election and wins, it's hard to see how the Palestinians will effectively manage their affairs with him behind bars. Another name sometimes touted is Dahlan, more in relation to the Gaza Strip. Not exactly popular, but good connections with Hamas, and some local clans.

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Nowhere did I say that it was not significant. What I have pointed out is that significant is a word that can cover a multitude of percentages. It's a weasel word. It can mean pretty much what the user wants it to mean.  I did say that I would call the percentage of support that Hamas commands pitiful rather than significant.

And it's clear that you didn't carefully read the entire article, since, if you had, you would have noted that support for violence was  lower than the total support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad. 

 

 

So, to be clear, "significant" is a subjective weasel word that can cover a multitude of percentages, but "pitiful", is clear and concise, correct? 

 

If you were honest, you would have checked the data and claimed that only a third of Palestinians support hamas or something similar, but you didn't. You read the headline and made a ridiculous claim.

 

I never pretended to read it carefully, it was your link, you should have read it and represented it honestly. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

40 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Sorry, I will rephrase it. To be clear, combined, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad parties represent over a third of Palestinians, and both are terrorist groups, and both want to exterminate all the Jews in Israel, after raping many of them. Is that better? 

 

Nitpicking aside, the data you provided does not support your claim that the number of Palestinians that support hamas is not significant. 

 

Did you even look at it before you posted the link? Probably not, I doubt very much you actually read the stuff you link to. I'm pretty sure you just Google-up a headline and post a link. 

 

40 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Your methodology is ridiculous. I guess to you, the glass is 1/4 full, not 3/4 empty.  When someone has "not a lot of trust", those of us who are reasonably familiar with the English language would take that as a negative response. Apparently, to you, it's a good thing.

As for me not looking at it, another of your empty unproveable allegations. You've got nothing.

 

What is ridiculous is you attempting to take me to task by nitpicking and bragging about your command of the language (you were an English major if I remember correctly) yet you're not even responding to the correct post. 

 

How funny it that? 

 

Not as funny as your claim that you used "pitiful" for accuracy because "significant" is a subjective weasel word that can cover a multitude of percentages. 

 

Dude cracks me up. 

[thaibeachlovers]

Been watching the first VDO I've seen of israeli troops attacking in Gaza, and of a Hamas fighter on Al Jazeera.

The Hamas fighter had a proper anti tank weapon as compared to a standard RPG. It's not going to be easy for the reservists that make up the majority of the force, given they likely had no experience of fighting an enemy that could fight back.

 

Interesting contribution from an expert that says the Hamas plan is likely to wait till the military is concentrated in the Gaza city before unleashing it's main attack on them.

 

Meanwhile, seems Australia is becoming concerned about settler violence in the West Bank. Could the US be going to lose another supporter?

 

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australia-deeply-concerned-about-violence-against-palestinians-penny-wong-says/trupkeewn

Australia 'deeply concerned' about violence against Palestinians in West Bank, Penny Wong says

The Foreign Minister said those responsible for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank "must be held accountable".

 

Even Biden is becoming concerned about it

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-condemns-retaliatory-attacks-by-israeli-settlers-against-palestinians-in-the-west-bank

President Joe Biden on Wednesday spoke out against retaliatory attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

 

 

[Morch]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Been watching the first VDO I've seen of israeli troops attacking in Gaza, and of a Hamas fighter on Al Jazeera.

The Hamas fighter had a proper anti tank weapon as compared to a standard RPG. It's not going to be easy for the reservists that make up the majority of the force, given they likely had no experience of fighting an enemy that could fight back.

 

Interesting contribution from an expert that says the Hamas plan is likely to wait till the military is concentrated in the Gaza city before unleashing it's main attack on them.

 

Meanwhile, seems Australia is becoming concerned about settler violence in the West Bank. Could the US be going to lose another supporter?

 

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australia-deeply-concerned-about-violence-against-palestinians-penny-wong-says/trupkeewn

Australia 'deeply concerned' about violence against Palestinians in West Bank, Penny Wong says

The Foreign Minister said those responsible for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank "must be held accountable".

 

Even Biden is becoming concerned about it

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-condemns-retaliatory-attacks-by-israeli-settlers-against-palestinians-in-the-west-bank

President Joe Biden on Wednesday spoke out against retaliatory attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

 

 

 

Most of the Israeli troops at the forefront of the fighting would not be reservists, other than those belonging to more elite units and so on (or at least units passing certain readiness standards). The two Israeli soldiers killed yesterday, for example, were 20yo.

 

As for "no experience of fighting an enemy that could fight back." - it's not like Hamas got a whole lot of experience in that either. Unless you count the 7/10 massacre of civilians as such (plus many of the perpetrators dead by now).

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Been watching the first VDO I've seen of israeli troops attacking in Gaza, and of a Hamas fighter on Al Jazeera.

The Hamas fighter had a proper anti tank weapon as compared to a standard RPG. It's not going to be easy for the reservists that make up the majority of the force, given they likely had no experience of fighting an enemy that could fight back.

 

 

Hezbollah would be very offended by your characterization that Israeli reservists had no experience of facing an enemy that could fight back. Lots of those reservists were once frontline soldiers who faced Hezbollah and took a lot of punishment.

[placeholder]

15 hours ago, Morch said:

 

You're looking at it from the wrong angle. The two large blocs are rallied around either Fatah or Hamas. The Islamic Jihad sort of supports the Hamas, but it's not quite as tight an alliance, really. More indicative of a trend. The main thing to notice is the number of undecided (the 'other' label can be included, considering potential changes and shifts within, splinter factions etc.) - so what this poll shows is a three-way split. A whole lot of people not too happy with either main option, but no viable alternatives on offer.

 

Hamas's advantage over the Fatah is (provided it politically survives this war) constancy. The leadership is there, not too old, replacements in the wings. The Fatah, on the other hand is in shambles, with basically everyone waiting for Abbas to croak, and the succession struggle decided. As far as I can tell, none of the would-be-leaders is very popular. And rivalries run pretty deep, so a splintering or some crippling internal dispute are certainly options. In such a scenario, Hamas (with the caveat mentioned) stands a good chance of gaining the upper hand.

 

All this, of course, relates to popular vote. In effect, Hamas's chances of winning could be greater factoring local representative elections.

 

One of the things that could upset this, or make things more complicated is the appearance of a third party/candidate. There's a lot of talk about Marwan Barghouti as such. But in effect, even if he can stand for election and wins, it's hard to see how the Palestinians will effectively manage their affairs with him behind bars. Another name sometimes touted is Dahlan, more in relation to the Gaza Strip. Not exactly popular, but good connections with Hamas, and some local clans.

Well, the one factor you disregard is the trend. And that has been moving away from Hamas. According to that poll, support for Hamas declined by 8 points between the last poll and this one.

 

15 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

So, to be clear, "significant" is a subjective weasel word that can cover a multitude of percentages, but "pitiful", is clear and concise, correct? 

 

If you were honest, you would have checked the data and claimed that only a third of Palestinians support hamas or something similar, but you didn't. You read the headline and made a ridiculous claim.

 

I never pretended to read it carefully, it was your link, you should have read it and represented it honestly. 

 

 

If pitiful was unaccompanied by data, it too would be a weasel word. But it wasn't unaccompanied, was it?

And more of your silly baiting on whether or not I read the article.

 

[placeholder]

15 hours ago, Morch said:

 

You're looking at it from the wrong angle. The two large blocs are rallied around either Fatah or Hamas. The Islamic Jihad sort of supports the Hamas, but it's not quite as tight an alliance, really. More indicative of a trend. The main thing to notice is the number of undecided (the 'other' label can be included, considering potential changes and shifts within, splinter factions etc.) - so what this poll shows is a three-way split. A whole lot of people not too happy with either main option, but no viable alternatives on offer.

 

Hamas's advantage over the Fatah is (provided it politically survives this war) constancy. The leadership is there, not too old, replacements in the wings. The Fatah, on the other hand is in shambles, with basically everyone waiting for Abbas to croak, and the succession struggle decided. As far as I can tell, none of the would-be-leaders is very popular. And rivalries run pretty deep, so a splintering or some crippling internal dispute are certainly options. In such a scenario, Hamas (with the caveat mentioned) stands a good chance of gaining the upper hand.

 

All this, of course, relates to popular vote. In effect, Hamas's chances of winning could be greater factoring local representative elections.

 

One of the things that could upset this, or make things more complicated is the appearance of a third party/candidate. There's a lot of talk about Marwan Barghouti as such. But in effect, even if he can stand for election and wins, it's hard to see how the Palestinians will effectively manage their affairs with him behind bars. Another name sometimes touted is Dahlan, more in relation to the Gaza Strip. Not exactly popular, but good connections with Hamas, and some local clans.

The thing is that support for Hezbollah has been on the decline. According to the latest poll support for Hezbollah dropped by 8 points. Given that, and the low level of support for violence, it doesn't seem likely that the 15% Other, was much of a potential reservoir of support for Hamas and/or Islamic Jihad. It seemed unlikely that Hamas was in a winning position. I put that in the past tense because who knows what the consequences of the Israeli invasion will be? Decreased support for Hamas because no desire for a repeat of the damage inflicted on the locals, or increased support out of a desire for vengeance.

[Morch]

24 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The thing is that support for Hezbollah has been on the decline. According to the latest poll support for Hezbollah dropped by 8 points. Given that, and the low level of support for violence, it doesn't seem likely that the 15% Other, was much of a potential reservoir of support for Hamas and/or Islamic Jihad. It seemed unlikely that Hamas was in a winning position. I put that in the past tense because who knows what the consequences of the Israeli invasion will be? Decreased support for Hamas because no desire for a repeat of the damage inflicted on the locals, or increased support out of a desire for vengeance.

 

Support fluctuates, and in my experience, both Israeli and Palestinian public opinion, support, voting polls are quite susceptible to the effects of current events. There's a quite common observation with regard to Israeli politics, which IMO applies to the Palestinian side as well - namely, that voters might be unsatisfied with and critical of Netanyahu, but still vote the same on elections. Reason being the vote is less rational, and more effected by emotions, group affiliation, election trail rhetoric or simply voting against the other team. I often reference the resemblance between Netanyahu and Trump - in this case, think Republican voters.

 

I'm not exactly sure which 'other' parties/options make up these 15%, but as I understand it the options include specific regional candidates (not so good for Fatah), or anti (government, corruption, economy) parties indicative of public dissatisfaction. So while maybe not directly affiliated or supportive of Hamas, IMO they do take away votes from the Fatah.

 

In addition to all that, what you refer to are general support figures. While you may disregard how elections work, that would be a mistake. If the same election system is applied, Hamas could still come on top - maybe not as decisively, maybe having to form a coalition, but anyway a force in domestic politics. To highlight this - the general vote count on the recent Israeli elections saw the current coalition win by a small margin of several ten thousand votes. Translated to parliament seats, however, it resulted in a 'stronger' majority.

 

As for what may or may not happen, we'll obviously have to wait and see. I think it quite probable that Israel would further curtail Hamas's political activity in the West Bank after the war, so some of the discussion above may prove irrelevant.

 

[placnx]

17 hours ago, Morch said:

 

You're looking at it from the wrong angle. The two large blocs are rallied around either Fatah or Hamas. The Islamic Jihad sort of supports the Hamas, but it's not quite as tight an alliance, really. More indicative of a trend. The main thing to notice is the number of undecided (the 'other' label can be included, considering potential changes and shifts within, splinter factions etc.) - so what this poll shows is a three-way split. A whole lot of people not too happy with either main option, but no viable alternatives on offer.

 

Hamas's advantage over the Fatah is (provided it politically survives this war) constancy. The leadership is there, not too old, replacements in the wings. The Fatah, on the other hand is in shambles, with basically everyone waiting for Abbas to croak, and the succession struggle decided. As far as I can tell, none of the would-be-leaders is very popular. And rivalries run pretty deep, so a splintering or some crippling internal dispute are certainly options. In such a scenario, Hamas (with the caveat mentioned) stands a good chance of gaining the upper hand.

 

All this, of course, relates to popular vote. In effect, Hamas's chances of winning could be greater factoring local representative elections.

 

One of the things that could upset this, or make things more complicated is the appearance of a third party/candidate. There's a lot of talk about Marwan Barghouti as such. But in effect, even if he can stand for election and wins, it's hard to see how the Palestinians will effectively manage their affairs with him behind bars. Another name sometimes touted is Dahlan, more in relation to the Gaza Strip. Not exactly popular, but good connections with Hamas, and some local clans.

Getting Marwan Barghouti out of an Israeli prison is just a small detail compared to what else must be done to have a viable Palestinian state. Barghouti has not yet been in prison as long as Mandela was.

[Morch]

8 minutes ago, placnx said:

Getting Marwan Barghouti out of an Israeli prison is just a small detail compared to what else must be done to have a viable Palestinian state. Barghouti has not yet been in prison as long as Mandela was.

 

Not sure what your point is, or what you were trying to say, even.

[transam]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

The thing is that support for Hezbollah has been on the decline. According to the latest poll support for Hezbollah dropped by 8 points. Given that, and the low level of support for violence, it doesn't seem likely that the 15% Other, was much of a potential reservoir of support for Hamas and/or Islamic Jihad. It seemed unlikely that Hamas was in a winning position. I put that in the past tense because who knows what the consequences of the Israeli invasion will be? Decreased support for Hamas because no desire for a repeat of the damage inflicted on the locals, or increased support out of a desire for vengeance.

You forgot the link for your figures.....😉

[thaibeachlovers]

The israelis are right to not consider the Gaza a pushover to the invasion.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-9-soldiers-killed-battling-hamas-deep-inside-gaza-as-military-toll-mounts/

Fifteen soldiers were killed in fighting deep inside the Gaza Strip in the course of Tuesday, Israeli authorities announced Wednesday, and another was killed by mortar fire on the border on Wednesday, the IDF said, as leaders warned of the “heavy toll” being paid by troops to eliminate the Hamas terror group.

[Yellowtail]

I think as long as Gazan's continue every day to climb out of their tunnels and bomb Israel there should be no ceasefire. 

 

Hamas needs to be made to surrender. 

[Neeranam]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I think as long as Gazan's continue every day to climb out of their tunnels and bomb Israel there should be no ceasefire. 

 

Hamas needs to be made to surrender. 

You are obviously totally biased in this war. I feel sorry for you believing all the Israeli propaganda. 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

You are obviously totally biased in this war. I feel sorry for you believing all the Israeli propaganda. 

Agree with you.

What some don't understand is that Hamas fighters are probably prepared to fight to the death, as they know what will happen to them if captured.

The israeli reservists are probably just wanting to go home. It's different attacking an enemy that fights back, than what they experienced when bullying unarmed Palestinians under occupation.

[Yellowtail]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

You are obviously totally biased in this war. I feel sorry for you believing all the Israeli propaganda. 

Yes, I am biased, you on the other hand pretend that you are not biased, which is a bold-faced lie. 

 

You seem to know nothing about anything, yet every nonsensical post you make, you state as fact. 

[Neeranam]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Yes, I am biased, you on the other hand pretend that you are not biased, which is a bold-faced lie. 

Look at the reasons why you are biased, you can change. I have no reasons to be biased, if anything I might be biased to the Israelis side as I have many Jewish friends. 

[Morch]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Agree with you.

What some don't understand is that Hamas fighters are probably prepared to fight to the death, as they know what will happen to them if captured.

The israeli reservists are probably just wanting to go home. It's different attacking an enemy that fights back, than what they experienced when bullying unarmed Palestinians under occupation.

 

I don't know that 'fighters' is the appropriate term, guess you're just parroting AJ, though - so not surprising.

 

And to counter your 'argument' (again) - what combat experience do these Hamas men have? What war did they fight? Which armies have they faced? Murdering civilians? Conducting limited terrorist attacks? That's about it. They are no veterans, they are not more hardened. The do have the advantage of playing on their turf, but that's about it.

[Neeranam]

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

You seem to know nothing about anything, yet every nonsensical post you make, you state as fact. 

I am not going to read any more of your posts, you are rude and obnoxious. 

[Morch]

Just now, Neeranam said:

Look at the reasons why you are biased, you can change. I have no reasons to be biased, if anything I might be biased to the Israelis side as I have many Jewish friends. 

 

Of course you aren't, and of course you have.

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Agree with you.

Yeah, all you guys that justify hamas' behavior agree. 

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What some don't understand is that Hamas fighters are probably prepared to fight to the death...

I think everyone understands that hamas terrorists are prepared to fight to the death, and see that as a good thing. 

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

...as they know what will happen to them if captured.

All they know is what would happen to capture. They, like you, have been indoctrinated to believe that Israel is evil. 

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The israeli reservists are probably just wanting to go home.

I don't doubt that

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's different attacking an enemy that fights back, than what they experienced when bullying unarmed Palestinians under occupation.

Yes, fighting terrorists takes a lot more courage than hiding in tunnels under hospitals.

 

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Look at the reasons why you are biased, you can change. I have no reasons to be biased, if anything I might be biased to the Israelis side as I have many Jewish friends. 

"I tell lies about Israel, but I'm not biased because I have many Jewish friends."

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I am not going to read any more of your posts, you are rude and obnoxious. 

Go with God brother. 

[placeholder]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:48 PM, Morch said:

 

You're looking at it from the wrong angle. The two large blocs are rallied around either Fatah or Hamas. The Islamic Jihad sort of supports the Hamas, but it's not quite as tight an alliance, really. More indicative of a trend. The main thing to notice is the number of undecided (the 'other' label can be included, considering potential changes and shifts within, splinter factions etc.) - so what this poll shows is a three-way split. A whole lot of people not too happy with either main option, but no viable alternatives on offer.

 

Hamas's advantage over the Fatah is (provided it politically survives this war) constancy. The leadership is there, not too old, replacements in the wings. The Fatah, on the other hand is in shambles, with bNoasically everyone waiting for Abbas to croak, and the succession struggle decided. As far as I can tell, none of the would-be-leaders is very popular. And rivalries run pretty deep, so a splintering or some crippling internal dispute are certainly options. In such a scenario, Hamas (with the caveat mentioned) stands a good chance of gaining the upper hand.

 

All this, of course, relates to popular vote. In effect, Hamas's chances of winning could be greater factoring local representative elections.

 

One of the things that could upset this, or make things more complicated is the appearance of a third party/candidate. There's a lot of talk about Marwan Barghouti as such. But in effect, even if he can stand for election and wins, it's hard to see how the Palestinians will effectively manage their affairs with him behind bars. Another name sometimes touted is Dahlan, more in relation to the Gaza Strip. Not exactly popular, but good connections with Hamas, and some local clans.

No, I'm not looking at it from a wrong angle. I'm just not looking at it from just a political party angle. I'm looking at it from an angle of where popular sentiment lies. And the populace has clearly moved away from supporting the core positions of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It used to be that Hamas was reckoned to excel at providing government services. But it has lost its support even in that. Granted, as a report from that organization shows, there usually is an upsurge of support when Israel attacks. But even at the height of the upsurge, the support isn't what it used to be. The trend is downwards no matter what the fluctuations may be.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

No, I'm not looking at it from a wrong angle. I'm just not looking at it from just a political party angle. I'm looking at it from an angle of where popular sentiment lies. And the populace has clearly moved away from supporting the core positions of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It used to be that Hamas was reckoned to excel at providing government services. But it has lost its support even in that. Granted, as a report from that organization shows, there usually is an upsurge of support when Israel attacks. But even at the height of the upsurge, the support isn't what it used to be. The trend is downwards no matter what the fluctuations may be.

Do you have anything that support this?