Why Israel’s push into southern Gaza could be a ‘real hell of a fight’

[placnx]

On 12/2/2023 at 10:07 PM, placeholder said:

 

Well, my opinion is one that's shared by some very knowledgeable people. As they have pointed out, Biden has kind of backed himself into a corner with his over-the-top embrace of the Israeli response. After investing all this political capital in support of Israel, is it politically palatable for Biden to break with Netanyahu? 

White House pressed Israel during bombing pause to change its strategy

As fighting starts up again, it is unclear whether White House actions made a difference

Despite this notable change in message and tone, outside advisers and Middle East experts said it remains unclear whether Biden would be willing to distance himself or break with Israel if it does not heed the American exhortations and undertakes another broadly devastating aerial campaign.

“There’s a rhetorical change in how they’re talking about it, but it doesn’t seem substantive,” said Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “If Israel pursues its military operations in a similar fashion, then you know the administration really hasn’t had an effect.”

https://archive.ph/FqD0S

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/02/white-house-pressed-israel-strategy-gaza/

 

As the article goes on to note, experts say they see no indication that Israel has changed its tactics in its prosecution of the war. An Israeli spokesperson quoted in the article says Israel sees no need to change its approach to the war. (Although, I suppose we would expect him to say that even if Israel had changed its tactics.)

 

The quoted comments of Bruce Riedel, a very savvy scholar of US policy in the Mideast, about the paralyzing predicament Biden finds himself in, are also telling.

 

As long as Biden doesn't explicitly draw a specific red line, why should Israel care what the rest of the world thinks? Essentially, as far as Israel's foreign concerns goes, it's down to a constituency of one person.

 

As for the Israeli government's domestic support, is there any politically influential concern among Jewish Israelis, who constitute roughly 80% of the population, about the fate of the Palestinian civilians in Gaza? Apart maybe from those voiced by a few leftists?  I think the order of the day for Jewish Israelis is vengeance and return of the hostages. Palestinian welfare doesn't figure in the political calculus.

 

 

Maybe Netanyahu is quite content to see Biden twist in the wind in the expectation that young US voters will abandon Biden in 2024 and Trump will win, so that the Greater Israel project can forge ahead full speed.

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

, so that the Greater Israel project can forge ahead full speed.

 

   Is that an actual thing or is it something that you made up 

[placnx]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I covered administrative detention as it is in reality, not your version. 

Your alternative reality?

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, placnx said:

Your alternative reality?

I can back my reality up with a credible link, can you with yours?

[placnx]

7 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   Is that an actual thing or is it something that you made up 

Well, the settlers and Ben Gvir are working on it.

[placnx]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

I can back my reality up with a credible link, can you with yours?

If you had looked at the post above, this link was there: https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention

[Nick Carter icp]

6 minutes ago, placnx said:

Well, the settlers and Ben Gvir are working on it.

 

   Is there an actual plan or did you just make it up , that there was a plan ?

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, placnx said:

If you had looked at the post above, this link was there: https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention

That does not relate to the reality of the current conflict and and hostage release, which was my point and what my post was about if you didn't notice

 

Israeli prisoner release shines light on system of detaining Palestinians without charge

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-palestinian-hamas-prisoner-release-gaza-west-bank-rcna127353

[placeholder]

29 minutes ago, placnx said:

Maybe Netanyahu is quite content to see Biden twist in the wind in the expectation that young US voters will abandon Biden in 2024 and Trump will win, so that the Greater Israel project can forge ahead full speed.

As far as it concerns Netanyahu, I would call it a collateral benefit.

Edited December 4, 2023 by placeholder

[Morch]

57 minutes ago, placnx said:

Apparently the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem does not agree with you: https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention

 

A two-state solution for now is the only way to stop this cycle of violence. Maybe in the future, Israel will deal with the apartheid within its borders. Then a one-state solution would be feasible if people wanted that. I believe that Putin did not go to South Africa and sent Lavrov instead.

 

The link you provided details pretty much the same procedures I mentioned.

 

As for a two-state solution, it would require at least two parties willing and able to negotiate and implement things. Do tell if you've seen any around.

 

Putin met with the Thai Prime Minister not too long ago, and was invited for a visit. I don't think they met it Moscow.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, placnx said:

Maybe Netanyahu is quite content to see Biden twist in the wind in the expectation that young US voters will abandon Biden in 2024 and Trump will win, so that the Greater Israel project can forge ahead full speed.

His policies on israel/ Palestine are one of the reasons I didn't want Trump to win again. On his other policies; immigration, border protection, world peace and most importantly NOT STARTING ANY WARS, I support him.

[placeholder]

On 11/29/2023 at 9:57 AM, Morch said:

So if fighting was to be commenced with civilians in place, it would imply way less air support for IDF troops, more opportunists for Hamas to use the population as human shields.

How's that implication working out so far?

[Morch]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

How's that implication working out so far?

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

You've got nothing.

[Morch]

45 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You've got nothing.

 

[placnx]

On 12/4/2023 at 3:40 PM, Bkk Brian said:

That does not relate to the reality of the current conflict and and hostage release, which was my point and what my post was about if you didn't notice

 

Israeli prisoner release shines light on system of detaining Palestinians without charge

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-palestinian-hamas-prisoner-release-gaza-west-bank-rcna127353

 

This war is really on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. If Israel ends up occupying Gaza, then administrative detention will happen there, too.

 

Thanks for the link. It gives real life accounts of the effect of administrative detention on Palestinians. My link was a technical explanation by B'Tselem, which I posted because others were giving a distorted impression on administrative detention.

[placnx]

23 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The link you provided details pretty much the same procedures I mentioned.

 

As for a two-state solution, it would require at least two parties willing and able to negotiate and implement things. Do tell if you've seen any around.

 

Putin met with the Thai Prime Minister not too long ago, and was invited for a visit. I don't think they met it Moscow.

I was not talking about Thailand. It was about Putin avoiding a visit to South Africa, which is technically required to arrest hum.

 

The two sides are not consolidated yet, but US will be the core broker on Israel's side, and Arab League/OIC/BRICS, etc, etc will broker the Palestinian side. The old approach with US dominating didn't work and will never work.

[placnx]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

His policies on israel/ Palestine are one of the reasons I didn't want Trump to win again. On his other policies; immigration, border protection, world peace and most importantly NOT STARTING ANY WARS, I support him.

You might say that Trump's Abraham Accords were a proximate factor behind the current war.

[Morch]

34 minutes ago, placnx said:

 

This war is really on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. If Israel ends up occupying Gaza, then administrative detention will happen there, too.

 

Thanks for the link. It gives real life accounts of the effect of administrative detention on Palestinians. My link was a technical explanation by B'Tselem, which I posted because others were giving a distorted impression on administrative detention.

 

There was no 'distorted impression' given. The details in the link your provided are pretty similar to what was posted earlier. So far 'Israel occupying the Gaza Strip' doesn't seem to be a thing.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Morch

[Morch]

29 minutes ago, placnx said:

I was not talking about Thailand. It was about Putin avoiding a visit to South Africa, which is technically required to arrest hum.

 

The two sides are not consolidated yet, but US will be the core broker on Israel's side, and Arab League/OIC/BRICS, etc, etc will broker the Palestinian side. The old approach with US dominating didn't work and will never work.

 

I wasn't talking on Thailand either. I was pointing out that the Thai Prime Minister met with Putin abroad. Not too complicated.

 

As for you assertions regarding 'core broker' (whatever you think this means), you'll have to support them with something other than your imagination. To date, BRICS was not a major factor in this, and there's little reason to expect this will change. Similarly, the involvement of Pan-Arab organizations was not a hallmark of related negotiations in the past. That you assert this will change, is good and well - just not substantive enough.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/5/2023 at 10:10 PM, placnx said:

 

This war is really on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. If Israel ends up occupying Gaza, then administrative detention will happen there, too.

 

Thanks for the link. It gives real life accounts of the effect of administrative detention on Palestinians. My link was a technical explanation by B'Tselem, which I posted because others were giving a distorted impression on administrative detention.

Yes, so much for the stated aim of America in preventing conflict spreading. You omitted Yemen, which is a 4th front.

IMO it's turning into a disaster for Biden, and looks like ( hopefully ) ruining his chances for a second term.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Yes, so much for the stated aim of America in preventing conflict spreading. You omitted Yemen, which is a 4th front.

IMO it's turning into a disaster for Biden, and looks like ( hopefully ) ruining his chances for a second term.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

If Biden loses the elections, it means Trump won. How does that figure in your anti-Israeli stance? It's not like Trump is going to be hard on Israel or anything.