Despite Washington’s confidence, US war with Iran would be disastrous

[Morch]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

When we end up alienating the whole world over our unquestioning support of Israel and arrogant vetoes, let's hope that we find a way to be forgiven.

 

The 'whole world' is not against Israel, nor the USA - that's your imagination (or wishful thinking) again.

Both China and Russia use their veto power on issues directly related to themselves, and so far it's not like the 'whole world' is against either.

You're just into hyperbole, that's all.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

The West Bank is not, 'effectively' or otherwise, part of this offensive - that's just you and you habit of stating bogus things as fact.

Every long journey and all that. Some people are never satisfied, obviously.

I guess whether or not it's a part of offensive depends on what you define as the whole.

 

As Israel fights in Gaza, settlers wage war on West Bank Palestinians - opinion

With the world focused on the din and death of the fighting in Gaza, Israeli right-wing extremists are using that war to distract attention away from their violence, vandalism, and harassment to tighten their grip on the West Bank and to drive out Palestinians.

At the same time, Israeli security forces have stepped up their anti-terror raids since the October 7 Hamas pogrom. An estimated 150 Palestinians, including an unknown number of suspected Hamas terrorists, have been killed in the West Bank over the last month and over 2,000 injured as violence has increased on both sides.

But it’s about more than rooting out terrorists.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-772311

 

[Morch]

27 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I guess whether or not it's a part of offensive depends on what you define as the whole.

 

As Israel fights in Gaza, settlers wage war on West Bank Palestinians - opinion

With the world focused on the din and death of the fighting in Gaza, Israeli right-wing extremists are using that war to distract attention away from their violence, vandalism, and harassment to tighten their grip on the West Bank and to drive out Palestinians.

At the same time, Israeli security forces have stepped up their anti-terror raids since the October 7 Hamas pogrom. An estimated 150 Palestinians, including an unknown number of suspected Hamas terrorists, have been killed in the West Bank over the last month and over 2,000 injured as violence has increased on both sides.

But it’s about more than rooting out terrorists.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-772311

 

 

There are no major IDF operations in the West Bank, no battles, no rockets. There's the usual stuff in higher intensity - I think that partially have to do with the situation heated over the Hamas attack and IDF offensive in the Gaza Strip, compounded by IDF units moved to the Gaza Strip and the settlers (plus political allies/backers) using the 'opportunity'. It's wrong and vile, but it ain't no offensive, and certainly not part of the IDF offensive. If anything the issue of settler violence is one topic of contention in government and war cabinet - especially as far as the Minister of Defense and the newly joined Centrist representatives are concerned. To head off expected comments - their focus is more about this being detrimental to Israel's more pressing issues in the Gaza Strip and vs. Hamas.

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

There are no major IDF operations in the West Bank, no battles, no rockets. There's the usual stuff in higher intensity - I think that partially have to do with the situation heated over the Hamas attack and IDF offensive in the Gaza Strip, compounded by IDF units moved to the Gaza Strip and the settlers (plus political allies/backers) using the 'opportunity'. It's wrong and vile, but it ain't no offensive, and certainly not part of the IDF offensive. If anything the issue of settler violence is one topic of contention in government and war cabinet - especially as far as the Minister of Defense and the newly joined Centrist representatives are concerned. To head off expected comments - their focus is more about this being detrimental to Israel's more pressing issues in the Gaza Strip and vs. Hamas.

As I noted, it depends on what you define as the whole. If settlers are being armed by a member of the government with no interference from the government itself,, and it does little to stop the settlers from violently dispossessing the Palestinians and keeping them from one of their most important sources of income, the seasonal olive harvest, it seems rather pedantic to insist that the offensive only encompasses official IDF activities.

[novacova]

On 12/4/2023 at 12:03 PM, Morch said:

While i do not think a war with Iran would be a walk in the park,

Iran has massive deep underground military installations, it would take ~800000 troops to implement a ground invasion. Logistics would be difficult given that the troops would have to cross ~600 miles to Tehran from the beach, much of which is mountainous. Another but difficult option would be to clear out a region close to Tehran using guided missiles and aerial bombardment and fly the troops in. These would be a daunting task. It would be easier to keep hitting there refineries, radar and communication systems, jdam and gbu the underground military entrances over and over.

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As I noted, it depends on what you define as the whole. If settlers are being armed by a member of the government with no interference from the government itself,, and it does little to stop the settlers from violently dispossessing the Palestinians and keeping them from one of their most important sources of income, the seasonal olive harvest, it seems rather pedantic to insist that the offensive only encompasses official IDF activities.

 

No, it is more about you trying to force a definition on the situation.

 

You seem not to grasp how dysfunctional the current Israeli government is. That you assume some coherent plan, some wide collusion of or agreement regarding what you describe - that's not on. The same was happening before 7/10, and the same is happening now - just that with focus being on the Gaza Strip, there's less to hold back things in the West Bank. Netanyahu doesn't dare challenge his coalition partners fearing his own future, that's all there is to it. You implying that there's a wider, calculated move at hand is nonsense. 

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, novacova said:

Iran has massive deep underground military installations, it would take ~800000 troops to implement a ground invasion. Logistics would be difficult given that the troops would have to cross ~600 miles to Tehran from the beach, much of which is mountainous. Another but difficult option would be to clear out a region close to Tehran using guided missiles and aerial bombardment and fly the troops in. These would be a daunting task. It would be easier to keep hitting there refineries, radar and communication systems, jdam and gbu the underground military entrances over and over.

 

While I'm sure that the USA got some draft of a plan to 'conquer' Iran somewhere in the Pentagon, I kinda doubt anyone got half an intention of applying it. Never mind the actual details involved - there's no justification to do it anyway.

[novacova]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

While I'm sure that the USA got some draft of a plan to 'conquer' Iran somewhere in the Pentagon, I kinda doubt anyone got half an intention of applying it. Never mind the actual details involved - there's no justification to do it anyway.

We don’t know what they’re planning, if there is even a decisive plan given the mental capacity of the US president is probably convoluting advisements coming out of the pentagon, staff members and international security officials. But there’s definitely a larger play on this than Iran and Israel, the pentagon definitely sees the broader theater, one miscalculation of the wrong long term strategy can have severe implications. But “Iran” isn’t just a singular subject here, from this perspective, empirically it’s the US that is being played and I’m sure the pentagon is sounding the alarm, though the politicians that are bought and paid for seem to have another objective.

[Hawaiian]

10 hours ago, placnx said:

When we end up alienating the whole world over our unquestioning support of Israel and arrogant vetoes, let's hope that we find a way to be forgiven.

"alienating the whole world"?  Really?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle/east/which-side-countries-that-back-israel-and-those-that-oppose-it-20231011-p5ebiz.html

[Morch]

9 hours ago, novacova said:

We don’t know what they’re planning, if there is even a decisive plan given the mental capacity of the US president is probably convoluting advisements coming out of the pentagon, staff members and international security officials. But there’s definitely a larger play on this than Iran and Israel, the pentagon definitely sees the broader theater, one miscalculation of the wrong long term strategy can have severe implications. But “Iran” isn’t just a singular subject here, from this perspective, empirically it’s the US that is being played and I’m sure the pentagon is sounding the alarm, though the politicians that are bought and paid for seem to have another objective.

 

Allow me to disregard your campaign trail comments - they are irrelevant to what I posted. That there is some plan like this shelved somewhere in the Pentagon, is almost beyond doubt. Much smaller and weaker countries, with lesser reach engaged in such planning, so doubtful the main superpower does not have some as well. This would have little to do with which President seats in the White House, more a military process. POTUS's role is on the decision and policy making, not the planning itself.

 

What you're sure off is not demonstrated, same goes for the USA being 'played', or even that there's a larger play involved.

[placnx]

19 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The West Bank is not, 'effectively' or otherwise, part of this offensive - that's just you and you habit of stating bogus things as fact.

Every long journey and all that. Some people are never satisfied, obviously.

You evidently don't know about the attacks by drones on a refugee camp in the West Bank. Since when was that done before October 7th? This is only a more striking example of the IDF activities on the West Bank that go beyond the raids that have been going on since the far right took power.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

You evidently don't know about the attacks by drones on a refugee camp in the West Bank. Since when was that done before October 7th? This is only a more striking example of the IDF activities on the West Bank that go beyond the raids that have been going on since the far right took power.

 

What I know is that such attacks were carried out more than once earlier this year - and before the 7/10 attack. There is no argument that things in the West Bank heated up since the current government was formed, or that the 7/10 attack and IDF operations in the Gaza Strip contribute to that as well. But lumping Israel's actions there as being 'part of the current offensive' is incorrect.

 

As said earlier (and I think mentioned on past topics) - there are disagreements between the IDF/Minister of Defense/new Centrist adds to the war cabinet and right-wing settler-representative ministers/settlers. The former would like for things not to get out of control, as it would divert IDF attention and resources from the Gaza Strip. The latter are into using every opportunity they get to push their main agenda. Netanyahu is being his usual weak, indecisive self (dependent on the former for general public approval, de but also dependent on the latter for political support) - and here we are.

[placnx]

14 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

"alienating the whole world"?  Really?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle/east/which-side-countries-that-back-israel-and-those-that-oppose-it-20231011-p5ebiz.html

Your link is from October 11th. Opinions taken early on do not reflect what has happened in the two months of Israel's bombing, etc. Opinion in the US, particularly among younger people currently opposes the Israeli attacks on Gaza. Germany & UK still support Israel, for now.

[Morch]

Just now, placnx said:

Your link is from October 11th. Opinions taken early on do not reflect what has happened in the two months of Israel's bombing, etc. Opinion in the US, particularly among younger people currently opposes the Israeli attacks on Gaza. Germany & UK still support Israel, for now.

 

What you demonstrate is that opinions change.

Somehow you seem to feel that the opinions you cite (never mind blowing them out of proportion) will not.

[VillageIdiot]

On 12/6/2023 at 7:54 PM, DaddyWarbucks said:

To imply that the Vietnam War was a "win" for the US in any sense of the word is downright ludicrous.

"You win some, you lose some" might have been a fair assessment of the US Military in the past, but since 1945 it has been all losses in every major conflict they've been involved in.

Spot-on.

Regurgitating a rancid word-salad that every MIC/Zionist shill knows by heart won't alter the simple fact that since WWII - and especially since the Vietnam War - US foreign policy has been an ongoing disaster.

America's military fiascos need to be protested against by everyone who is appalled by the senseless slaughter of non-combatants that they inevitably result in.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:22 PM, Hawaiian said:

Viet Nam is not the only SE Asian country challenging China's claim to the South China Sea.  Just this past June, the nuclear powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan along with two guided missile cruisers visited the port of Da Nang.  I would think that is a tacit sign of cooperation or collaboration.  You tell me what you think that signals.  A formal signed agreement is not always necessary for cooperation. Besides, how do you know what both sides have talked about behind closed doors?

Have you been following stepped up Philippine push back against Chinese territorial claims, now that the U.S. had gotten involved?  Even Canada has voiced their support of the Philippines.

Lately Japan has been more vocal in their dispute over the Senkaku Islands.  China has attempted to sideline U.S. support which so far is not written in stone.

If this is not cooperation or collaboration, then what is it?

I would consider it the precurser to WW3, which IMO is inevitable.

[Hawaiian]

20 hours ago, placnx said:

Your link is from October 11th. Opinions taken early on do not reflect what has happened in the two months of Israel's bombing, etc. Opinion in the US, particularly among younger people currently opposes the Israeli attacks on Gaza. Germany & UK still support Israel, for now.

I agree with you that opinions are changing.  News clips and video showing the destruction in Northern Gaza has gained the sympathy of those dismissing that much of this is inevitable if Hamas continues to resist by using their own people as human shields and continues the fight from hideouts in hospitals, schools and residential structures.  It was Hamas that violated the last ceasefire after refusing to release any more hostages.

There is now talk of flooding the tunnels in Southern Gaza with seawater in an attempt to avoid more civilian casualties.  This idea was rejected in Northern Gaza for fear of killing hostages.  I said this before, war is hell, but is the price paid if you want to defeat the enemy and end the war. 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/8/2023 at 7:12 PM, placnx said:

You evidently don't know about the attacks by drones on a refugee camp in the West Bank. Since when was that done before October 7th? This is only a more striking example of the IDF activities on the West Bank that go beyond the raids that have been going on since the far right took power.

I suppose it's inevitable that israeli apologists choose to overlook the third front ( or is it the 4th given the attacks from Yemen? ) in the West Bank.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Hamas continues to resist by using their own people as human shields and continues the fight from hideouts in hospitals, schools and residential structures.

You need to provide proof of that or its not true. The so called "proof" in the big hospital was just pathetic and no one that actually knows what a command center looks like believed it.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

I said this before, war is hell, but is the price paid if you want to defeat the enemy and end the war. 

Soooo, how many kids is the price? 50,000, 100,000, 1,000,000, all of them? When is enough enough?

[Hawaiian]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I would consider it the precurser to WW3, which IMO is inevitable.

Coming from you, this comment is no surprise.  I think peace through strength applies here.  Xi is not ready to take on most of Southeast Asia plus Japan, Australia, Canada, UK, France and the U.S. in an all out war.  China's adversary, India is also beefing up its military in the event of hostilities.

The push back against China's BRI is just beginning with Italy pulling out and the situation in Pakistan becoming untenable.  Even the Taliban in Afghanistan are having second thoughts. 

Yes things are heating up, but China's troubling economy, unexplained health scare and massive debt may cause China to pull in it's horns.

 

[Hawaiian]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You need to provide proof of that or its not true. The so called "proof" in the big hospital was just pathetic and no one that actually knows what a command center looks like believed it.

Not my fault if you are not informed.  Belief is not proof.  Neither are opinions.

[Hawaiian]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Soooo, how many kids is the price? 50,000, 100,000, 1,000,000, all of them? When is enough enough?

I thought you had all the answers.  Could be I am mistaken.

[Jingthing]

20 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Soooo, how many kids is the price? 50,000, 100,000, 1,000,000, all of them? When is enough enough?

Do you really think that kind of inflammatory bait is helpful in any way? 

[Jingthing]

18 hours ago, VillageIdiot said:

Spot-on.

Regurgitating a rancid word-salad that every MIC/Zionist shill knows by heart won't alter the simple fact that since WWII - and especially since the Vietnam War - US foreign policy has been an ongoing disaster.

America's military fiascos need to be protested against by everyone who is appalled by the senseless slaughter of non-combatants that they inevitably result in.

It's disgusting that you are clearly demonizing the word Zionist. I assume you're for a Palestinian political liberation movement that leads to a state of their own, right? So why would you deride the Zionist movement which is about the same thing for the Jewish people? 

Perhaps you only opposed the extremist right wing faction of Zionism, as do I. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, Hawaiian said:

Coming from you, this comment is no surprise.  I think peace through strength applies here.  Xi is not ready to take on most of Southeast Asia plus Japan, Australia, Canada, UK, France and the U.S. in an all out war.  China's adversary, India is also beefing up its military in the event of hostilities.

The push back against China's BRI is just beginning with Italy pulling out and the situation in Pakistan becoming untenable.  Even the Taliban in Afghanistan are having second thoughts. 

Yes things are heating up, but China's troubling economy, unexplained health scare and massive debt may cause China to pull in it's horns.

 

What strength would that be?

 

Why do you think Canada, Japan, UK, France would join a conflict in SEA? They are already struggling to supply Ukraine, and in the case of Britain, how would they even get to SEA? They no longer have bases there and their navy isn't much any more. Only the US has the naval capacity and I doubt enough spare capacity for Canadians, Brits etc.

Japan is still basically a self defense force, and too close to China to go far. Sth Korea? Unlikely as they have a nuclear armed enemy to the north

 

Worth remembering Canada, France and Britain did not join the war in Vietnam.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Not my fault if you are not informed.  Belief is not proof.  Neither are opinions.

No proof then, so not true.

 

Need I remind you of the forum rules "Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source".

 

That's YOU that needs to support your alleged facts, not up to me to look for it.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

I thought you had all the answers.  Could be I am mistaken.

I have no idea as to how many dead children is enough for you.

Facetious replies are not a substitute for a sensible answer. I thought you were taking this subject seriously, but I must have been mistaken.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/8/2023 at 8:27 AM, Hawaiian said:

"alienating the whole world"?  Really?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle/east/which-side-countries-that-back-israel-and-those-that-oppose-it-20231011-p5ebiz.html

Apparently 100 countries supported a ceasefire in the recent Security council debate, in which the US was the only country against it. Britain abstained, shame on them.

[Morch]

33 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Apparently 100 countries supported a ceasefire in the recent Security council debate, in which the US was the only country against it. Britain abstained, shame on them.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

And you see no shame in raising such a motion without referencing Hamas 7/10 attack? Atrocities committed? Rapes? Hostages taken? Hamas theft of supplies meant for the general population? Hamas accountability as responsible for the safety of Palestinian civilians?