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Fears of regional escalation as Israel warns of ‘multi-front’ war


CharlieH

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1 hour ago, billd766 said:

People, especially politicians, need to look at their countries military as an elastic band.

 

It can be stretched and stretched a fair amount but the band gets thinner at every stretch. Eventually the rubber band will snap and be lost to its purpose.

 

Fighting any war on a single front is not too hard, on 2 fronts you need to split your forces and all the logistics that go to keeping your military supplied. Both the Allied and Axis forces in WW2 found that out.

 

Fighting seven enemies at once is madness.

But if 7 enemies attack you, you don't really have a lot of choice.

 

Israel does not do "expeditionary warfare" They are unlikely to deploy troops beyond their boundaries. 

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3 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

But if 7 enemies attack you, you don't really have a lot of choice.

 

Israel does not do "expeditionary warfare" They are unlikely to deploy troops beyond their boundaries. 

I got that from the Guardian report on page 1 of the thread.

 

quote  Israel is engaged in a “multi-front war”, its defence minister has said, hinting at military operations across the Middle East as the war in Gaza showed new signs of a dangerous regional escalation.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Yoav Gallant said Israel was “coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria [an Israeli term for the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen and Iran”.

 

I may have read more into that than there really is but my take is with Netanyahu's war minded cabinet I wouldn't rule it out.

 

IMHO the IDF is running on past memories of the 1967 war and is relying almost entirely on the USA for funds, weapons, ammunition and logistical support.

 

If that is stopped then, again IMHO, they will have to rely on their not spoken about, nuclear weapons and that, I think would certainly spike of a regional war which may trigger a larger conflict.

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4 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I got that from the Guardian report on page 1 of the thread.

 

quote  Israel is engaged in a “multi-front war”, its defence minister has said, hinting at military operations across the Middle East as the war in Gaza showed new signs of a dangerous regional escalation.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Yoav Gallant said Israel was “coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria [an Israeli term for the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen and Iran”.

 

I may have read more into that than there really is but my take is with Netanyahu's war minded cabinet I wouldn't rule it out.

 

IMHO the IDF is running on past memories of the 1967 war and is relying almost entirely on the USA for funds, weapons, ammunition and logistical support.

 

If that is stopped then, again IMHO, they will have to rely on their not spoken about, nuclear weapons and that, I think would certainly spike of a regional war which may trigger a larger conflict.

 

@billd766

 

You're offering criticism when Israel address attack and threats from other regional players. Citing escalation (nuclear, no less...) as a concern.

You do not offer the same criticism with regard to the attacks themselves, though. Not much of a balanced, or even reasonable take.

 

Some of these 'fronts' (countries) don't even share a border with Israel. Somehow you don't find much fault with their actions, less worries about the situation deteriorating due to their actions.

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1 hour ago, billd766 said:

I got that from the Guardian report on page 1 of the thread.

 

quote  Israel is engaged in a “multi-front war”, its defence minister has said, hinting at military operations across the Middle East as the war in Gaza showed new signs of a dangerous regional escalation.

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Yoav Gallant said Israel was “coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria [an Israeli term for the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen and Iran”.

 

I may have read more into that than there really is but my take is with Netanyahu's war minded cabinet I wouldn't rule it out.

 

IMHO the IDF is running on past memories of the 1967 war and is relying almost entirely on the USA for funds, weapons, ammunition and logistical support.

 

If that is stopped then, again IMHO, they will have to rely on their not spoken about, nuclear weapons and that, I think would certainly spike of a regional war which may trigger a larger conflict.

After the 6 day war and more particular the Yom Kippur War in 1973 Israel, aware of how vulnerable it was to its supply of weapons being interrupted, took steps to develop an indigenous arms industry - to the extent that it is now a major arms supplier in its own right. It manufactures it's own infantry weapons, anti tank weapons, armoured vehicles and ammunition; either under license or to its own designs. 

 

This equipment, some of which is of foreign design, is almost always heavily modified to use Israeli fire control systems and communication systems, and to suit local conditions.

 

They also have large stocks of stored equipment in reserve - hundreds of tanks, several thousand armoured personnel carriers, hundreds of artillery pieces.

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5 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

After the 6 day war and more particular the Yom Kippur War in 1973 Israel, aware of how vulnerable it was to its supply of weapons being interrupted, took steps to develop an indigenous arms industry - to the extent that it is now a major arms supplier in its own right. It manufactures it's own infantry weapons, anti tank weapons, armoured vehicles and ammunition; either under license or to its own designs. 

 

This equipment, some of which is of foreign design, is almost always heavily modified to use Israeli fire control systems and communication systems, and to suit local conditions.

 

They also have large stocks of stored equipment in reserve - hundreds of tanks, several thousand armoured personnel carriers, hundreds of artillery pieces.

 

Some, but not all. Bombs, for example, are not made in Israel. Other stuff as well.

There was an article or two, don't recall if they were linked here, about plans afoot to address this long term, setting up production lines etc. One lesson from this war, I guess. They'll probably try to increase attack helicopter numbers too down the line (so fat the USA refuses to sell/transfer more).

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8 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

After the 6 day war and more particular the Yom Kippur War in 1973 Israel, aware of how vulnerable it was to its supply of weapons being interrupted, took steps to develop an indigenous arms industry - to the extent that it is now a major arms supplier in its own right. It manufactures it's own infantry weapons, anti tank weapons, armoured vehicles and ammunition; either under license or to its own designs. 

 

This equipment, some of which is of foreign design, is almost always heavily modified to use Israeli fire control systems and communication systems, and to suit local conditions.

 

They also have large stocks of stored equipment in reserve - hundreds of tanks, several thousand armoured personnel carriers, hundreds of artillery pieces.

What they may be short on and their enemies will be long on is most probably people. Plus since those 2 wars their Arab opponents will also have learnt their lessons from it as well.

 

All those large stocks of stored equipment in reserve - hundreds of tanks, several thousand armoured personnel carriers, hundreds of artillery pieces will not be of much use against Iran or Yemen and to use up their person power will shut down a lot of their industries.

 

I have no doubt that Russia, China will also be beefing up the weapon stocks in countries who are, or could be against Israel.

 

Iran can shut the Gulf to all vessels which would screw up the oil revenues of all the Gulf states and also screw up all the countries reliant on the Gulf oil states. Yemen could play havoc with the Red Sea shipping routes as indeed they are now.

 

Even the US military cannot be everywhere all of the time to protect everybody. If you take them from Asia, the Chinese can always take the advantages offered by their absence.

 

This takes me back to the elastic band again.

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6 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

But if 7 enemies attack you, you don't really have a lot of choice.

 

Israel does not do "expeditionary warfare" They are unlikely to deploy troops beyond their boundaries. 

Other than on the northern border, no one is attacking israel directly, and the US has managed to convince many other nations to protect israeli linked shipping in the Red Sea.

If it expands to 7 countries ( where did that come from anyway ) that's on israel.

 

BTW, this isn't America's war, so America doesn't need to get involved directly.

IMO if they do, it will be playing directly into Iranian hands, which IMO wants nothing less than a war against the crusader infidels to unite the people of the Middle East against America and it's allies.

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6 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

But if 7 enemies attack you, you don't really have a lot of choice.

 

Israel does not do "expeditionary warfare" They are unlikely to deploy troops beyond their boundaries. 

Other than on the northern border, no one is attacking israel directly, and the US has managed to convince many other nations to protect israeli linked shipping in the Red Sea.

If it expands to 7 countries ( where did that come from anyway ) that's on israel.

 

BTW, this isn't America's war, so America doesn't need to get involved directly.

IMO if they do, it will be playing directly into Iranian hands, which IMO wants nothing less than a war against the crusader infidels to unite the people of the Middle East against America and it's allies.

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6 hours ago, billd766 said:

Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Yoav Gallant said Israel was “coming under attack from seven theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria [an Israeli term for the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen and Iran”.

They are pulling it if they claim they are under attack from the West Bank, but I suppose they can fool some people that a cowed and controlled people are actually capable of a "war" against israel.

So far, Iraq, Yemen and Iran are not attacking israel directly.

 

The very great danger to the people of the world not involved in this catastrophe is that the US gets involved directly ( hopefully no other nation will be so foolish as to join ), which will likely cause economic disaster as the price of oil goes through the roof, airlines will have to go around the entire Middle East, and shipping will be disrupted.

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5 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

They also have large stocks of stored equipment in reserve - hundreds of tanks, several thousand armoured personnel carriers, hundreds of artillery pieces.

What they don't have is enough men. They had to call up hundreds of thousands of reservists to deal with just Gaza, and IMO they don't have enough to fight on several fronts. Netanyahu will ( I hope ) understand this, and is either just making empty threats, or is hoping American men will make up the difference ( I sincerely hope that he doesn't have a guarantee of American support for attacks on several fronts ).

They would also be in trouble if trying to attack Yemen directly as the supply route through the Red Sea is subject to missile attack. I doubt they have any chance of an overland supply route.

They could try invading Lebanon again, but Hezbollah would probably like that.

Invade Syria or Iran- LOL.

That leaves long distance air attack as the likely mode to be used, and possible even the US doesn't have enough bombs left over from Gaza to be supporting such. Also, just an air only offensive never usually works and boots on the ground are necessary as well.

 

BTW, if those armoured personnel carriers are M113, they are not that great.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M113_armored_personnel_carrier

The Israel Defense Forces still operates large numbers of the M113, maintaining a fleet of 6,000 of the vehicles. On numerous occasions since their introduction in the late 1960s, the IDF's M113s have proven vulnerable to modern anti-tank missiles, IEDs, and RPGs, resulting in the deaths of many Israeli soldiers riding inside the vehicles. The IDF has nonetheless been unable to replace the use of them in combat operations, due to budget constraints in equipping its large mechanized infantry regiments.

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5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Other than on the northern border, no one is attacking israel directly, and the US has managed to convince many other nations to protect israeli linked shipping in the Red Sea.

If it expands to 7 countries ( where did that come from anyway ) that's on israel.

 

BTW, this isn't America's war, so America doesn't need to get involved directly.

IMO if they do, it will be playing directly into Iranian hands, which IMO wants nothing less than a war against the crusader infidels to unite the people of the Middle East against America and it's allies.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

Either you're not aware of stuff because it's not on AJ, or you just ignore things.

 

There were missile and drone attacks on Israel from Yemen.

There was a drone attack just last night from Syria.

Cyber attacks from Iran.

Terrorist attacks (or intentions of, curtailed) on India, Europe, South America and Cyprus.

 

Unite the people of the Middle East? Are you for real?

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4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What they don't have is enough men. They had to call up hundreds of thousands of reservists to deal with just Gaza, and IMO they don't have enough to fight on several fronts. Netanyahu will ( I hope ) understand this, and is either just making empty threats, or is hoping American men will make up the difference ( I sincerely hope that he doesn't have a guarantee of American support for attacks on several fronts ).

They would also be in trouble if trying to attack Yemen directly as the supply route through the Red Sea is subject to missile attack. I doubt they have any chance of an overland supply route.

They could try invading Lebanon again, but Hezbollah would probably like that.

Invade Syria or Iran- LOL.

That leaves long distance air attack as the likely mode to be used, and possible even the US doesn't have enough bombs left over from Gaza to be supporting such. Also, just an air only offensive never usually works and boots on the ground are necessary as well.

 

BTW, if those armoured personnel carriers are M113, they are not that great.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M113_armored_personnel_carrier

The Israel Defense Forces still operates large numbers of the M113, maintaining a fleet of 6,000 of the vehicles. On numerous occasions since their introduction in the late 1960s, the IDF's M113s have proven vulnerable to modern anti-tank missiles, IEDs, and RPGs, resulting in the deaths of many Israeli soldiers riding inside the vehicles. The IDF has nonetheless been unable to replace the use of them in combat operations, due to budget constraints in equipping its large mechanized infantry regiments.

 

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

Unhinged. Try reading before posting. There was nothing said about going to war in the way you suggested, it was about Israel facing attacks from multiple fronts.

 

As an aside, your 'Hezbollah would like that' comment is both wrong (which is obvious by Hezbollah keeping attacks pretty much in-line with what's 'acceptable'). And wrong - in the sense that your eagerness for the death and destruction which would follow is wrong. Of course, if that happens, you'll be wringing you hands and criticizing Israel regardless.

 

 

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9 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Other than on the northern border, no one is attacking israel directly, and the US has managed to convince many other nations to protect israeli linked shipping in the Red Sea.

If it expands to 7 countries ( where did that come from anyway ) that's on israel.

 

BTW, this isn't America's war, so America doesn't need to get involved directly.

IMO if they do, it will be playing directly into Iranian hands, which IMO wants nothing less than a war against the crusader infidels to unite the people of the Middle East against America and it's allies.

quote "If it expands to 7 countries ( where did that come from anyway ) that's on Israel."

 

That came from the Guardian report which was the first post on page 1 of this thread.

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17 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The IDF is heavily biased towards using reservists, constantly "refresher trained" since it exists to counter an existential threat to the country and it's inhabitants, one that is capable of being mounted at short notice as recent events have shown. Many, probably as many, of these reservist units are deployed along the Northern borders and Golan Heights as are fighting in Gaza.

 

It doesn't plan, practice for or have any real capacity for "expeditionary warfare".

No dispute from me on that.

However, those "reservists" all have jobs in real life, jobs that are now going begging for workers, jobs that are now not paying taxes etc and all need to be paid out of state financial reserves.

They apparently called up 300,000 for Gaza alone, and if they decided to back up the rhetoric with action and invade Lebanon, how many more reservists will be required?

To cause Israel maximum damage without an actual war against Lebanon, Hezbollah only needs to pose a threat with minor attacks, which disrupt northern Israel life and economy, brings reservists into service, and make Israelis stressed and unhappy.

The longer this conflict goes on, the greater the financial penalty to the Israeli state.

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17 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The M113 are vulnerable if deployed as Infantry Fighting Vehicles, they were never designed for that - our perception of them is perhaps coloured by memories of them being used as such in Vietnam, hatches open and multiple machine guns on improvised mounts on top; but as carriers, communication and control vehicles, armoured ambulances, artillery command posts and observation post vehicles are still effective. They are old but ironically, armoured vehicles although they can come to a sudden violent end in battle are remarkably long lived in peacetime. They are also capable of being rapidly repaired and put back into service - techniques at which the Israel's have proved adept.

No dispute on me with that either. I am familiar with the M113 and it is certainly a versatile and adaptable vehicle.

The person/ people that invented it were genius, IMO. It's not often a piece of military kit lives on as long as that one.

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17 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

It has in recent years developed a range of infantry fighting vehicles based on obsolete Soviet era tanks (captured) and their own Centurion tanks to protect infantry in open surroundings, and to keep up with their own tanks.

The Israelis have always been clever at adapting and improving military vehicles. The end result is usually better than the original. It was one of the reasons I respected the Israeli military in the past. Many tanks were designed to be built quickly in a time of war, but were not very good in practice eg the Sherman, which was easily mass produced, but earned the German nickname of "Tommy Cooker", for unpleasant reasons.

 

The Israelis improved the Sherman as seen in this from Google

Isherman

The Sherman M-50 and the Sherman M-51, both often referred to abroad as the Super Sherman, were modified versions of the American M4 Sherman tank that served with the Israel Defense Forces from the mid-1950s to early 1980s. The M-51 was also referred to as the Isherman (i.e. Israeli Sherman).

 

The Centurion was an impressive beast of war, but very thirsty.

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8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No dispute from me on that.

However, those "reservists" all have jobs in real life, jobs that are now going begging for workers, jobs that are now not paying taxes etc and all need to be paid out of state financial reserves.

They apparently called up 300,000 for Gaza alone, and if they decided to back up the rhetoric with action and invade Lebanon, how many more reservists will be required?

To cause Israel maximum damage without an actual war against Lebanon, Hezbollah only needs to pose a threat with minor attacks, which disrupt northern Israel life and economy, brings reservists into service, and make Israelis stressed and unhappy.

The longer this conflict goes on, the greater the financial penalty to the Israeli state.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

Wars are expensive, this is no news.

 

There's already talk that the next phase of the fighting will see many of the reserve duty soldiers released.Talk of the price and economic implications of the war is very prominent in Israeli media. With the backdrop of the current government's preferential spending for religious and right-wing sectors, much of this is not favorable to the coalition.

 

As usual, your hatred for Israel blinds you. Israel can withstand the economic implications, even it it hurts the country. Have you considered what does this imply for the Palestinians (both in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank)? Lebanon (especially resident of Southern Lebanon who self-evacuated to the North)? Syria (Damscus international airport been shut down for about a month now)?

 

The point is that you don't really care about Palestinians, or any other Arabs much. What you're about is Israel Bad.

 

 

 

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Here is another take about a story that made headlines recently - Iranian commander claiming Iran was in on the attack or something, and Hamas denying it. The analysis suggested here is that it's more to do with power plays within Hamas:

 

Why is Hamas worried about the October 7 narrative of Iran, Hezbollah? - analysis

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/why-is-hamas-worried-about-iran-hezbollahs-october-7-narrative/ar-AA1mahKY

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After this incident yesterday:

 

The US Navy has destroyed Houthi "small boats" whose crew attempted to board a container ship in the Red Sea.

Four vessels from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen fired upon the Maersk Hangzhou and got within metres of the ship, the US military said.

Helicopters from nearby US warships responded to a distress call - and, after being fired upon, sank three boats "in self-defence".

The crews were killed and the fourth boat fled the area.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67851897

 

It looks like the UK is also now going to get involved in dealing with the Houthi

 

UK preparing for attacks on Houthi rebels with US

Britain’s military is preparing to launch a wave of air strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis creating chaos in the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a significant spiralling of tensions in the region.
Under the plans the UK would join with the US and possibly another European country to unleash a salvo of missiles against pre-planned targets, either in the sea or in Yemen itself, where the militants are based.
A Whitehall source said the co-ordinated strikes could involve RAF warplanes for the first time or HMS Diamond, a Type 45 destroyer which successfully destroyed an attack drone with a Sea Viper missile in the Red Sea this month.

https://archive.ph/kjyFR

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/houthi-rebels-boats-yemen-red-sea-attacks-85mxc6gzt

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19 hours ago, peter zwart said:

And im affraid 2024 is going to be a year of escalation. Russia/ukrain, Israel/Palestine, China/Taiwan, North Korea/South Korea. It could be ingredients for a perfect storm. 

You could very well be correct, but lets not ignore the pot boilers going on in Africa, and a few other ignored situations as well ( israeli oppression of the Palestinians was mainly ignored before October 7 ).

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2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You could very well be correct, but lets not ignore the pot boilers going on in Africa, and a few other ignored situations as well ( israeli oppression of the Palestinians was mainly ignored before October 7 ).

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

It was only 'ignored' in your misleading low information posts.

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