How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

[Social Media]

The Gaza Ministry of Health's Handling of Casualty Figures Under Scrutiny

 

The controversy surrounding casualty figures from the Gaza conflict has sparked intense debate and scrutiny, particularly regarding the accuracy and reliability of the data provided by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry. While the numbers presented by the ministry have been used to shape international perceptions of the conflict, questions have arisen about the validity of these figures, with some suggesting that they may have been inflated or manipulated to serve political agendas.

 

At the heart of the issue is the assertion by the Gaza Health Ministry that over 30,000 individuals, predominantly women and children, have been killed since the onset of the conflict. These figures have been cited by prominent figures, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Biden, lending them credibility on the global stage. However, skepticism has been raised regarding the veracity of these numbers, prompting closer examination of the data.

 

The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.

 

One key aspect of concern is the consistency and linearity of the reported casualty figures over time. Analysis of the daily death tolls released by the Gaza Health Ministry reveals a remarkable level of regularity, with minimal variation observed from day to day. This unusual pattern has raised suspicions among observers, who argue that such consistency is unlikely in the context of a dynamic and volatile conflict zone. Instead, it is suggested that these figures may have been artificially inflated or manipulated to create a false impression of the scale of casualties.

 

The daily number of children reported to have been killed is totally unrelated to the number of women reported. The R2 is .017 and the relationship is statistically and substantively insignificant.

 

Furthermore, scrutiny of the gender breakdown of casualties raises additional questions about the integrity of the data. While it would be expected that variations in the number of women casualties would correlate with fluctuations in the overall death toll, analysis reveals a lack of correlation between these variables. This inconsistency suggests that the reported gender breakdown may not accurately reflect the realities of the conflict, further undermining the credibility of the casualty figures.

 

The correlation between the daily men and daily women death count is absurdly strong and negative (p-value < .0001).

 

Anomalies in the data, such as discrepancies between consecutive days' reports and inexplicable fluctuations in the number of male casualties, further compound doubts about the accuracy of the numbers provided by the Gaza Health Ministry. These inconsistencies suggest that the reporting process may be flawed or subject to manipulation, casting doubt on the reliability of the figures.

 

There are three days where the male casualty count is close to 0. These three days correspond to the three highest daily women’s casualty count.

 

Moreover, the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties raises concerns about the accuracy of the gender breakdown. While it is not uncommon for civilian populations to suffer disproportionately in conflict zones, the extent of this gender disparity in the Gaza casualty figures appears unusually high. This discrepancy has led some to question whether the numbers may have been manipulated to exaggerate the impact on vulnerable populations, thereby eliciting greater sympathy and condemnation from the international community.

 

In addition to concerns about the accuracy of the casualty figures themselves, questions have been raised about the motivations behind their dissemination. Critics argue that the Gaza Health Ministry, under the control of Hamas, may have political motives for inflating casualty figures to garner international support and condemnation of Israel's actions. By portraying Palestinians as disproportionately victimized, Hamas may seek to delegitimize Israel's military operations and rally support for its own cause.

 

While efforts to independently verify casualty figures face significant challenges in the context of the Gaza conflict, the inconsistencies and anomalies observed in the data provided by the Gaza Health Ministry raise serious doubts about their accuracy and reliability. As the international community grapples with the complexities of the conflict, it is imperative to critically evaluate the information presented and seek a more nuanced understanding of the realities on the ground. Only through rigorous scrutiny and analysis can we hope to gain a clearer picture of the human cost of the Gaza conflict and work towards meaningful solutions to address its underlying causes.

 

09.03.24

Source

 

 

[Brickleberry]

An obscure journal, written by an Israeli. Lies.

 

Why not take an actual medical journal 'The Lancet": The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal and one of the oldest of its kind. It is also one of the world's highest-impact academic journals. It was founded in England in 1823

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext

 

Quote

No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health

Mortality reporting is a crucial indicator of the severity of a conflict setting, but it can also be inflated or under-reported for political purposes. Amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, some political parties have indicated scepticism about the reporting of fatalities by the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH).

¹

^,  

²

 The Gaza MoH has historically reported accurate mortality data, with discrepancies between MoH reporting and independent United Nations analyses ranging from 1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts. A comparison between the Gaza MoH and Israeli Foreign Ministry mortality figures for the 2014 war yielded an 8·0% discrepancy.

²

 Public scepticism of the current reports by the Gaza MoH might undermine the efforts to reduce civilian harm and provide life-saving assistance.

Using publicly available information,

³

^,  

⁴

 we compared the Gaza MoH's mortality reports with a separate source of mortality reporting and found no evidence of inflated rates. We conducted a temporal analysis of cumulative-reported mortality within Gaza for deaths of Gazans as reported by the MoH and reported staff member deaths from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), from Oct 7 to Nov 10, 2023. These two data sources used independent methods of mortality verification, enabling assessment of reporting consistency.

 

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, Brickleberry said:

An obscure journal, written by an Israeli. Lies.

 

Why not take an actual medical journal 'The Lancet": The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal and one of the oldest of its kind. It is also one of the world's highest-impact academic journals. It was founded in England in 1823

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext

 

 

The Lancet is saying there is no evidence of inflated figures, the OP is also not claiming there are inflated figures. 

 

The OP does look at the anomalies in the data, such as discrepancies between consecutive days and pays particular attention to the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties raises concerns about the accuracy of the gender breakdown.

 

However noted, you call it lies because its written by a Jew, outed yet again.

[Brickleberry]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The Lancet is saying there is no evidence of inflated figures, the OP is also not claiming there are inflated figures. 

 

The OP does look at the anomalies in the data, such as discrepancies between consecutive days and pays particular attention to the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties raises concerns about the accuracy of the gender breakdown.

 

However noted, you call it lies because its written by a Jew, outed yet again.

 

"How the Gaza ministry of health fakes casualty numbers" is the title, and it keeps referring to the figures being inflated and inaccurate. The OP is trying to say that the numbers are lies, and we shouldn't believe them. An independent, globally respected Journal that has been around for almost 200 years disagrees, and says they are accurate.

 

Note that I said it was written by an Israeli. I did not say it was written by a Jew, I said it was written by an Israeli. A biased source. The source is also very questionable, it is not internationally renowned, it is not peer reviewed and seems to have no specific purpose.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Brickleberry said:

 

"How the Gaza ministry of health fakes casualty numbers" is the title, and it keeps referring to the figures being inflated and inaccurate. The OP is trying to say that the numbers are lies, and we shouldn't believe them. An independent, globally respected Journal that has been around for almost 200 years disagrees, and says they are accurate.

 

Note that I said it was written by an Israeli. I did not say it was written by a Jew, I said it was written by an Israeli. A biased source. The source is also very questionable, it is not internationally renowned, it is not peer reviewed and seems to have no specific purpose.

Read my post again, then read the OP. Yes claims are that they are distorting the the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties.

 

Where are they making claims in the OP that they have inflated the overall figures?

 

Yes you said "written by an Israeli. Lies"

[Brickleberry]

53 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Read my post again, then read the OP. Yes claims are that they are distorting the the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties.

 

Where are they making claims in the OP that they have inflated the overall figures?

 

Yes you said "written by an Israeli. Lies"

 

I suggest you read what was written in the OP's post, before erroneously defending the indefensible.

 

Quote

One key aspect of concern is the consistency and linearity of the reported casualty figures over time. Analysis of the daily death tolls released by the Gaza Health Ministry reveals a remarkable level of regularity, with minimal variation observed from day to day. This unusual pattern has raised suspicions among observers, who argue that such consistency is unlikely in the context of a dynamic and volatile conflict zone. Instead, it is suggested that these figures may have been artificially inflated or manipulated to create a false impression of the scale of casualties.

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Brickleberry said:

 

I suggest you read what was written in the OP's post, before erroneously defending the indefensible.

 

 

Yes I read the OP and it is not making those claims, thanks for the confirmation. Suggesting something is not making a factual claim.

[Brickleberry]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I read the OP and it is not making those claims, thanks for the confirmation. Suggesting something is not making a factual claim.

 

I suggest you clean your spectacles, they might be a bit dusty:

 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Read my post again, then read the OP. Yes claims are that they are distorting the the disproportionate representation of women and children among reported casualties.

 

Where are they making claims in the OP that they have inflated the overall figures?

 

Yes you said "written by an Israeli. Lies"

 

I then point you directly to where it says the figures have been inflated in the OP's post:

 

13 hours ago, Social Media said:

One key aspect of concern is the consistency and linearity of the reported casualty figures over time. Analysis of the daily death tolls released by the Gaza Health Ministry reveals a remarkable level of regularity, with minimal variation observed from day to day. This unusual pattern has raised suspicions among observers, who argue that such consistency is unlikely in the context of a dynamic and volatile conflict zone. Instead, it is suggested that these figures may have been artificially inflated or manipulated to create a false impression of the scale of casualties.

 

You are wrong. Admit it, and move on.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Brickleberry said:

 

I suggest you clean your spectacles, they might be a bit dusty:

 

 

I then point you directly to where it says the figures have been inflated in the OP's post:

 

 

You are wrong. Admit it, and move on.

LOL

 

"Where are they making claims in the OP that they have inflated the overall figures?"

 

They have made no claims, suggestions are not claims

 

I don't need glasses but obviously you do

[beautifulthailand99]

If you don't mind, on this occasion I will accept the US SoS and Biden's acceptance of the figures rather than some recently hashed up Israeli propaganda which attempts to deflect away from the utter carnage they have caused with spurious graphs and looks like some intern in the Hasbara Front had a cunning plan late night on the Mountain Dew.

 

 

At the heart of the issue is the assertion by the Gaza Health Ministry that over 30,000 individuals, predominantly women and children, have been killed since the onset of the conflict. These figures have been cited by prominent figures, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Biden, lending them credibility on the global stage. However, skepticism has been raised regarding the veracity of these numbers, prompting closer examination of the data.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If you don't mind, on this occasion I will accept the US SoS and Biden's acceptance of the figures rather than some recently hashed up Israeli propaganda which attempts to deflect away from the utter carnage they have caused with spurious graphs and looks like some intern in the Hasbara Front had a cunning plan late night on the Mountain Dew.

 

 

At the heart of the issue is the assertion by the Gaza Health Ministry that over 30,000 individuals, predominantly women and children, have been killed since the onset of the conflict. These figures have been cited by prominent figures, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Biden, lending them credibility on the global stage. However, skepticism has been raised regarding the veracity of these numbers, prompting closer examination of the data.

Do you really accept Biden acceptance? 

 

And Biden himself questioned those stats. He said he has, quote, "no confidence" in the numbers that are being cited by the health ministry, essentially saying he doesn't know if they're telling the truth about how many Palestinians have been killed

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1208577490/biden-says-hes-worried-about-civilian-deaths-in-gaza-but-questions-death-toll-st

 

Although he privately apologized the next day to Palestinian Americans

[Jeff the Chef]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point. Wikipedia

[Nick Carter icp]

Can we just be honest and straight up here .

No one believes Hamas figures , apart from Hamas supporters .

Its quite clear that they've "cooked the books" and the numbers are just random numbers picked randomly 

[NickyLouie]

The only Palestinian deaths are those of the terrorists, don't buy into the false media propaganda. Israel is doing God's work Allah willing.

 

[Nick Carter icp]

1 minute ago, NickyLouie said:

The only Palestinian deaths are those of the terrorists, don't buy into the false media propaganda. Israel is doing God's work Allah willing.

 

 

   No need to exaggerate . 

Some civilians have indeed been killed , just not the amount stated by Hamas .

If Hamas figures are to be believed , you would think that only woman and children have died

[beautifulthailand99]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Do you really accept Biden acceptance? 

 

And Biden himself questioned those stats. He said he has, quote, "no confidence" in the numbers that are being cited by the health ministry, essentially saying he doesn't know if they're telling the truth about how many Palestinians have been killed

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1208577490/biden-says-hes-worried-about-civilian-deaths-in-gaza-but-questions-death-toll-st

 

Although he privately apologized the next day to Palestinian Americans

When we see the epic level of destruction caused in such a small area and the collapse of health services and sanitation it doesn't take much imagination to say a heck of a lot. To get into a numbers game can only be to deflect from that salient point. Israel should be proud of that, given their logic of this war and besides it's all on Hamas is the overarching narrative. If they were truly the figures given, would you be ashamed ?

[Bkk Brian]

6 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

When we see the epic level of destruction caused in such a small area and the collapse of health services and sanitation it doesn't take much imagination to say a heck of a lot. To get into a numbers game can only be to deflect from that salient point. Israel should be proud of that, given their logic of this war and besides it's all on Hamas is the overarching narrative. If they were truly the figures given, would you be ashamed ?

To get into a numbers game can only be to deflect from that salient point.

 

Why was your original post getting into numbers then? The rest of your post here is the deflection. This topic is about numbers.

[BobBKK]

Of course, Israel would never fake anything. Total disgrace.

[Bkk Brian]

27 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

Of course, Israel would never fake anything. Total disgrace.

Because Hamas figures are unquestionably correct even the Al-Ahli hospital carpark deaths?

[Wobblybob]

1 hour ago, BobBKK said:

Of course, Israel would never fake anything. Total disgrace.

Only a fool would believe anything that comes out of a terrorist mouth, but the Gazan Amateur Dramatic Society is getting much practice in these days and their productions goes out to all the Hamas gullible followers.

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Wobblybob said:

Only a fool would believe anything that comes out of a terrorist mouth, but the Gazan Amateur Dramatic Society is getting much practice in these days and their productions goes out to all the Hamas gullible followers.

If I said that, others would say another fact free rant !

[Wobblybob]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

If I said that, others would say another fact free rant !

Your world of terrorist propaganda is alien to me, so I will not he replying to your nonsense!

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

Your world of terrorist propaganda is alien to me, so I will not he replying to your nonsense!

Seeing the world as it is rather than we would wish it to be is the sign of a realist, not a terrorist. Some here support Russia and probably Hamas, not me I support peace - however messy, as an alternative to death and destruction.

[Wobblybob]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Seeing the world as it is rather than we would wish it to be is the sign of a realist, not a terrorist. Some here support Russia and probably Hamas, not me I support peace - however messy, as an alternative to death and destruction.

Propaganda memes are not the real world! 

[beautifulthailand99]

8 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

Propaganda memes are not the real world! 

I think you may have mistaken me for another poster, I now post carefully argued positions all back up by recent links from approved sources, not memes. I'm not going to out my previous employment, but it involved preparing detailed accurate briefs for very, very senior people whose attention to detail and facts was ferocious.

[Nick Carter icp]

3 hours ago, BobBKK said:

Of course, Israel would never fake anything. Total disgrace.

 

  What are you suggesting that Israel have faked ?

[tuktuktuk]

Sun Tzu said it best - all warfare is based on deception 

[BobBKK]

On 3/10/2024 at 3:55 PM, Nick Carter icp said:

 

  What are you suggesting that Israel have faked ?

 

You need a list? Start with tunnels under hospitals? Casualty figures? Pretending to keep civilians safe? saying land is theirs and stealing it?

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

 

You need a list? Start with tunnels under hospitals? Casualty figures? Pretending to keep civilians safe? saying land is theirs and stealing it?

 

   There were tunnels under the hospital .

It was Hamas who gave false casualty figures .

Israel have tried to get civilians out of war zones , no "pretending" there .

Israel haven't claimed that Gaza is theirs and they haven't stolen it 

[BobBKK]

On 3/10/2024 at 12:22 PM, Bkk Brian said:

Because Hamas figures are unquestionably correct even the Al-Ahli hospital carpark deaths?

 
No, both sides lie