'Next pandemic is around the corner,' expert warns - but would lockdown ever happen again?

[candide]

53 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

Sure, if the only thing people died of was covid then preventing covid deaths would be a good thing.  Unfortunately during this period the things that kill people in much greater numbers did not go away and were probably exasperated due to lockdowns (people not being screened for cancer/heart conditions whilst still treatable etc).  Also different countries counted covid deaths differently so is not a reliable number for comparison.   

 

What is a reliable number though is excess deaths from any cause.  So my point stands, that Sweden without a lockdown had lower excess deaths than countries that applied lockdowns, so it could easily be argued that lockdowns caused worse outcomes than not locking down.   

 

I know the data does not suit the narrative that 'lockdowns saved lives' (sorry about that), and this is the point I was making earlier.   Even with cold hard facts presented to those who thought lockdowns were a good idea that demonstrates they were palpably not a good idea, people (such as yourself) would willingly accept lockdowns even with knowing this fact.  

The data confirms that restrictions (incl. lockdowns) saved lives.

 

As I mentioned, the death rate decreased in Sweden after it started to implement stricter restrictions from 2021.  It only applied lax restrictions in 2020. Sweden has also one of the highest vaccination rate in Europe.

 

It us also geography bound and culture bound, as low death rates for Sweden neighbours are showing. For example, I doubt that voluntary restrictions would work in Latin European countries in the same way as in a Protestant Nordic country such as Sweden.

 

As to excess deaths measures, the article you cited notes that there are different ways to calculate them, and it affects the results. Ex. Here, Sweden has a higher death rates than Norway or Denmark

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2023-01-01&facet=none&country=DNK~SWE~NOR~DEU~FRA~ITA~ESP~NLD~BEL~CHE~AUT~LUX~GBR~PRT~FIN~IRL~USA~AUS~NZL&hideControls=true&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&Metric=Excess+mortality+(%)

[James105]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Did Sweden beat the pandemic by refusing to lock down? No, its record is disastrous

 

"One fact that tends to be glossed over by anti-lockdown advocates is that Sweden did eventually tighten its social distancing regulations and advisories, though only after the failure of its initial policies became clear."

...

in December 2020, King Carl XVI Gustaf shocked the country by taking a public stand against the government’s approach: “I think we have failed,” he said. “We have a large number who have died and that is terrible.”

 

He was correct. If Sweden had Norway’s death rate, it would have suffered only 4,429 deaths from COVID during the pandemic, instead of more than 18,500."

 

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-03-31/sweden-covid-policy-was-a-disaster

 

 

Another one that seems to think that the only thing that killed people during covid was covid.  The excess deaths are the only reliable figure to use here as some countries counted a death as a covid death if within 30 days of a positive test and some didn't.    But a death is always counted as a death whatever the reason so if you look at excess deaths from all causes then Sweden looks quite good, and importantly they didn't destroy their economy or wreck their kids education either.  I know these cold hard facts can be difficult to take if you have been heavily invested in the lie that lockdowns saved lives, but they are what they are.   

 

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/sweden-during-pandemic#excess-deaths

[James105]

16 minutes ago, candide said:

As to excess deaths measures, the article you cited notes that there are different ways to calculate them

 

Clearly you didn't read the article,  as excess deaths are not counted differently.  The article states that with the covid death count there were many different ways of counting this.  In Norway a covid death was only counted as a covid death if the consulting physician said it was the cause of death, whereas Sweden counted it as a covid death if they had tested positive for covid at some point but died of something unrelated such as a heart attack.   The way every country counts a death is the same.  Are they alive or not.  If not then it is counted as a death.  

[Dolf]

On 3/25/2024 at 12:37 PM, Tug said:

Personally I will trust the science not the random internet conspiracy theory guys……….that being said I hope she is wrong about it happening again soon

What science?

[stats]

An off-topic trolling post has been removed.

 

[candide]

18 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

Clearly you didn't read the article,  as excess deaths are not counted differently.  The article states that with the covid death count there were many different ways of counting this.  In Norway a covid death was only counted as a covid death if the consulting physician said it was the cause of death, whereas Sweden counted it as a covid death if they had tested positive for covid at some point but died of something unrelated such as a heart attack.   The way every country counts a death is the same.  Are they alive or not.  If not then it is counted as a death.  

All deaths are counted, right. However, the way to calculate the "excess" may differ.

From your link:

The numbers can be adjusted for what was to be expected from population predictions, even though such data does not exist for all countries, and the choice of method leads to varying results. When Statistics Sweden compares excess deaths with projected deaths based on population trends and age, at 4.2 percent Sweden still has fewer excess deaths than its neighbors, but the difference with Denmark (4.3) and Norway (4.5) becomes insignificant. Finland’s rate is almost twice as high, at 8.2 percent.31

The result is slightly different when the website Our World in Data uses the Human Mortality Dataset and compares excess deaths with the previous five years rather than the previous three years. Then Denmark has a lower rate than Sweden, with Norway close to Sweden and Finland higher than Sweden.32The Economist has its own method for measuring excess death and comes to a similar conclusion.33

 

And, as a reminder, Sweden had a much higher death rate in 2020, when it implemented only very few restrictions. The death rate started to decrease only after it started to implement extensive restrictions (and extensive vaccination, too). So it's not true that Sweden had no restrictions during the whole time. 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

It's coming... just a matter of how soon, and how bad...

World health leaders warn of pandemic 20 times worse than COVID

Without preparedness, the WHO warned, a pandemic from Disease X could cause much more damage than COVID, which has killed more than 7 million worldwide.

 

Jan. 24, 2024

 

(NewsNation) — At the recent World Economic Forum, the World Health Organization issued a warning to world leaders, saying the world could face a pandemic 20 times worse than COVID-19 in the future.

 

Scientists call it Disease X, a term that recognizes the next global pandemic could come as the result of an unknown pathogen rather than the spread of a currently recognized disease.

...

While Disease X was the focus of the session, it’s not the only illness that concerns epidemiologists. Other viruses that could potentially cause a pandemic include Ebola, Marburg, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Lassa fever, SARS, MERS, Nipah virus, Rift Valley Fever, Zika virus and new evolutions of COVID-19.

 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/4424600-world-health-leaders-warn-of-pandemic-20-times-worse-than-covid/

 

[Sametboy2019]

Pandemics generally happen once every 100 years. If another came so soon then we either had a fake one or the next one is fake

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Pandemics generally happen once every 100 years.

 

Not from the history of the past 20th Century or the current century thus far, as shown below:

 

"A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded..."

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics_and_pandemics

 

Plus another one, with a lower estimated number of deaths:

2009 Swine Flu Pandemic

In 2009, the H1N1 flu virus, known as "swine flu," spread quickly worldwide. Researchers had not previously identified the novel H1N1 flu virus in either animals or humans.6

 

Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, swine flu caused 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and about 12,469 deaths in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.7

...

The pandemic officially ended on August 10, 2010. Still, the H1N1 flu virus circulates seasonally.7

 

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/worst-pandemics-in-history

 

 

Edited March 26 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Dolf]

13 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

It's coming... just a matter of how soon, and how bad...

World health leaders warn of pandemic 20 times worse than COVID

Without preparedness, the WHO warned, a pandemic from Disease X could cause much more damage than COVID, which has killed more than 7 million worldwide.

 

Jan. 24, 2024

 

(NewsNation) — At the recent World Economic Forum, the World Health Organization issued a warning to world leaders, saying the world could face a pandemic 20 times worse than COVID-19 in the future.

 

Scientists call it Disease X, a term that recognizes the next global pandemic could come as the result of an unknown pathogen rather than the spread of a currently recognized disease.

...

While Disease X was the focus of the session, it’s not the only illness that concerns epidemiologists. Other viruses that could potentially cause a pandemic include Ebola, Marburg, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Lassa fever, SARS, MERS, Nipah virus, Rift Valley Fever, Zika virus and new evolutions of COVID-19.

 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/4424600-world-health-leaders-warn-of-pandemic-20-times-worse-than-covid/

 

More lies

[Dolf]

10 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Not from the history of the past 20th Century or the current century thus far, as shown below:

 

"A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded..."

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics_and_pandemics

 

Plus another one, with a lower estimated number of deaths:

2009 Swine Flu Pandemic

In 2009, the H1N1 flu virus, known as "swine flu," spread quickly worldwide. Researchers had not previously identified the novel H1N1 flu virus in either animals or humans.6

 

Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, swine flu caused 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and about 12,469 deaths in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that up to 575,400 people died worldwide.7

...

The pandemic officially ended on August 10, 2010. Still, the H1N1 flu virus circulates seasonally.7

 

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/worst-pandemics-in-history

 

 

Scaremongering crap

 

I had swine flu and covid. Both bad flus.

 

The roads are more dangerous.

[transam]

7 minutes ago, Dolf said:

Scaremongering crap

 

I had swine flu and covid. Both bad flus.

 

The roads are more dangerous.

Does swine flu affect brain cells............?   🤔

[KhunLA]

There were lockdowns before 

 

I read people were required to wear masks, and did so 

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Did Sweden beat the pandemic by refusing to lock down? No, its record is disastrous

 

"One fact that tends to be glossed over by anti-lockdown advocates is that Sweden did eventually tighten its social distancing regulations and advisories, though only after the failure of its initial policies became clear."

...

in December 2020, King Carl XVI Gustaf shocked the country by taking a public stand against the government’s approach: “I think we have failed,” he said. “We have a large number who have died and that is terrible.”

 

He was correct. If Sweden had Norway’s death rate, it would have suffered only 4,429 deaths from COVID during the pandemic, instead of more than 18,500."

 

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-03-31/sweden-covid-policy-was-a-disaster

 

Did they die with covid or because of covid? It makes a difference. If they would have died anyway because of bad health they should not be counted, IMO.

 

Where Sweden went wrong was that they did not isolate the vulnerable, but IMO they had it right otherwise.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

There were lockdowns before 

 

I read people were required to wear masks, and did so 

Never worldwide.

[transam]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Did they die with covid or because of covid? It makes a difference. If they would have died anyway because of bad health they should not be counted, IMO.

 

Where Sweden went wrong was that they did not isolate the vulnerable, but IMO they had it right otherwise.

 

 

Not again..................

[KhunLA]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Never worldwide.

My reference to TH ... as in place, but not enforced, after the few couple weeks in April 2020, I think.   As we were O&A way more than usual.  Never stopped or questioned, even the first week when out of province, when outer province travel was supposedly being frowned upon.

 

Lots of shuttered business, most actually, in the international tourist catering areas.  Pure BLISS for us, as Phuket and Ao Nang was never better, in the 20 years prior.  And we got to travel during high season, on the cheap, 25% or more, discounted what they are now.   Paying 600 baht w/brekkie buffet, at a couple on Phuket, where they want 3k this past Dec & Jan.

 

Rural Thai towns and non-touristy areas were back to normal quite quick.   Locally/PKK, only the surfside restaurants, that catered to the weekender or few intern'l tourist stay shut for shy of 2 yrs, till the sandboxes opened and they trickled back in.

 

One street over, parallel to surfside, and you'd never know there was a pandemic 

[transam]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

There were lockdowns before 

 

I read people were required to wear masks, and did so 

The daft, know it all's didn't wear masks............😉

[rickudon]

The main problem with lockdowns is they were all started too late. The aim of a lockdown should be to stop the disease spreading rapidly, but little point when there are multiple cases everywhere. Having said that, whenever lockdowns started, infection rates soon began to fall. Also, hard to provide adequate health services when bodies are piling up in hospital corridors. Early, targeted lockdowns would have slowed the spread and allowed area with few or no cases to operate normally.

 

I saw what was happening in China and took precautions in January 2020. Air travel was to blame for the spread of Covid world wide in the first couple of months in 2020; countries like the UK carried on as if nothing was happening, then panicked (blame the government). Eventually, nearly everybody caught Covid, but those who caught it later had the advantages of vaccination and less severe strains. In 2020, the death rate was around 1%, without any lockdowns or other restrictions, the global death toll would have probably exceeded 10 million in that year alone.

 

The first step in all outbreaks of serious disease is quarantine, that has been the case for hundreds of years. Prevention before cure.

 

Forcing all businesses to close was perhaps to Draconian, but efforts to decrease human to human direct interactions should have been heavily promoted.

[candide]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

My reference to TH ... as in place, but not enforced, after the few couple weeks in April 2020, I think.   As we were O&A way more than usual.  Never stopped or questioned, even the first week when out of province, when outer province travel was supposedly being frowned upon.

 

Lots of shuttered business, most actually, in the international tourist catering areas.  Pure BLISS for us, as Phuket and Ao Nang was never better, in the 20 years prior.  And we got to travel during high season, on the cheap, 25% or more, discounted what they are now.   Paying 600 baht w/brekkie buffet, at a couple on Phuket, where they want 3k this past Dec & Jan.

 

Rural Thai towns and non-touristy areas were back to normal quite quick.   Locally/PKK, only the surfside restaurants, that catered to the weekender or few intern'l tourist stay shut for shy of 2 yrs, till the sandboxes opened and they trickled back in.

 

One street over, parallel to surfside, and you'd never know there was a pandemic 

What is also particular to Thailand is that It's a coronaviruses' nest!

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-015-0289-1

[stats]

A post with unsourced and unsubstantiated claims has been removed, along with an ensuing reply. And an unsourced conspiracy theory post.