Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Rimmer]

The original topic is now over two years old and contains a lot of useful information but in order to bring daily events to the fore this will now be the go to discussion topic for current events.

 

It is not for historical events leading into the war, we shall be starting a dedicated topic for that in the next few days.

 

The old topic is HERE

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Starting to see a pivot in the info wars positing the line if Ukraine loses then it will cost our economies much more which is turning truth on it's head.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/18/if-putin-wins-in-ukraine-the-british-economy-will-be-in-the-firing-line

[tgw]

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Starting to see a pivot in the info wars positing the line if Ukraine loses then it will cost our economies much more which is turning truth on it's head.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/18/if-putin-wins-in-ukraine-the-british-economy-will-be-in-the-firing-line

 

You might be right with that opinion, but you should provide some arguments.

 

If Putin wins in Ukraine, I see an arms race in Europe, which will lead to a boost in economies.

Not sure if that's what the "selfless promoters of peace" have in mind though.

 

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

You might be right with that opinion, but you should provide some arguments.

 

If Putin wins in Ukraine, I see an arms race in Europe, which will lead to a boost in economies.

Not sure if that's what the "selfless promoters of peace" have in mind though.

 

Trump's latest line is that NATO countries will need to go to 3% of GDP  for defence and not include any monies that are allocated to Ukraine if he is to stay in NATO. That alone would be a huge cost to Europeans something that most voters are blissfully unaware of. Defence spending is an incredibly wasteful use of a nation's capital , Russia included unless you go on a total war footing - which Russia has done. I have read somewhere will try and find a link that it is 10x more wasteful than investment in civilian tech - most middle and western Europeans want butter before guns. Here in the Uk - we're bust infrastucture crumbling all over the place.

[transam]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump's latest line is that NATO countries will need to go to 3% of GDP  for defence and not include any monies that are allocated to Ukraine if he is to stay in NATO. That alone would be a huge cost to Europeans something that most voters are blissfully unaware of. Defence spending is an incredibly wasteful use of a nation's capital , Russia included unless you go on a total war footing - which Russia has done. I have read somewhere will try and find a link that it is 10x more wasteful than investment in civilian tech - most middle and western Europeans want butter before guns. Here in the Uk - we're bust infrastucture crumbling all over the place.

Putin is probably, sooooo proud of you............😂

[tgw]

20 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump's latest line is that NATO countries will need to go to 3% of GDP  for defence and not include any monies that are allocated to Ukraine if he is to stay in NATO. That alone would be a huge cost to Europeans something that most voters are blissfully unaware of. Defence spending is an incredibly wasteful use of a nation's capital , Russia included unless you go on a total war footing - which Russia has done. I have read somewhere will try and find a link that it is 10x more wasteful than investment in civilian tech - most middle and western Europeans want butter before guns. Here in the Uk - we're bust infrastucture crumbling all over the place.

 

EU countries will do it, regardless of Trump.

Whether it's wasteful or not is not important. The expenditure will simply be necessary if Putin wins. Several countries are already thinking about re-introducing military service.

Of course EU countries all hope the increased spending in the military will be a waste. That will be the best possible result.

But what needs to be done is re-building production capacity for a full scale ground war in Europe, that supposes the capacity to ramp up artillery shell production to at least one million shells per month within a few months in addition of maintaining a stockpile of at least ten million shells.

Similar upgrades have to be made for other military staples as well, including training troops.

 

Until a regime change happens in Ruzzia, things will never go back to normal in Europe, regardless of Ukraine winning or not. I'm not sure the "benevolent partisans of peace supporting Putin's war of aggression" fully realize that.

 

In this light, if Putin is victorious, it will cause huge defence spendings in Europe. That's an additional motivation for EU countries to support Ukraine. It's cheaper if Ukraine wins.

I guess the carbon emissions will also be lower if Ukraine wins.

Edited May 19 by tgw

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, tgw said:

 

EU countries will do it, regardless of Trump.

Whether it's wasteful or not is not important. The expenditure will simply be necessary if Putin wins. Several countries are already thinking about re-introducing military service.

Of course EU countries all hope the increased spending in the military will be a waste. That will be the best possible result.

But what needs to be done is re-building production capacity for a full scale ground war in Europe, that supposes the capacity to ramp up artillery shell production to at least one million shells per month within a few months in addition of maintaining a stockpile of at least ten million shells.

Similar upgrades have to be made for other military staples as well, including training troops.

 

Until a regime change happens in Ruzzia, things will never go back to normal in Europe, regardless of Ukraine winning or not. I'm not sure the "benevolent partisans of peace supporting Putin's war of aggression" fully realize that.

 

As an aside where do you live , I'm curious ?

[tgw]

4 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

As an aside where do you live , I'm curious ?

I live in Thailand

[beautifulthailand99]

12 minutes ago, tgw said:

I live in Thailand

I'm in the UK who in your scenario will have to pay for an accept a lot of the risk for the solutioin you propose. We've had 2 world wars start in Europe already let's not have a third. Most Asian countries shrug and go not our gig folks , it's our old colonsiers having a fraticidal war again. And whilst we're at it we will have a piece of those cheap assets diverted away from western markets. We are sanctioning ourselves and fuelling the further growth of China.Which I'm sure our friend Transam doesn't want.

Edited May 19 by beautifulthailand99

[tgw]

12 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm in the UK who in your scenario will have to pay for an accept a lot of the risk for the solutioin you propose. We've had 2 world wars start in Europe already let's not have a third. Most Asian countries shrug and go not our gig folks , it's our old colonsiers having a fraticidal war again. And whilst we're at it we will have a piece of those cheap assets diverted away from western markets. We are sanctioning ourselves and fuelling the futher growth of China.Which I'm sure our friend Transam doesn't want.

 

We already know Chamberlain's politics didn't work.

Your way of thinking is flawed.

Bowing to Ruzzian aggression just to avoid a war with Ruzzia weakens Europe even more, China will have a stronger position versus EU weaklings than vs. EU doing the right thing now.
Ruzzia-Iran-China is an axis of evil with currently one aggressive member, one contained member and one for-the-moment-silent partner "without limits".

Ruzzia vs. Europe

China vs. USA

and

Iran as a sh*t-stirrer

 

You say "Asian countries" as if they were homogenous and all on the same economic and societal development level as Europe.

China is a member of the axis of evil and North Korea is an associate member. Many other Asian countries aren't democratic in the first place, such as Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and a couple others I forgot, some have enough trouble at home, such as Taiwan and others aren't significant in terms of military and finances. Others aren't economically developed and busy with themselves such as India, Philippines, Indonesia.

 

Let's look at two developed, democratic major Asian countries : Japan and South Korea - both support Ukraine.

 

Edited May 19 by tgw

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

We already know Chamberlain's politics didn't work.

Your way of thinking is flawed.

Bowing to Ruzzian aggression just to avoid a war with Ruzzia weakens Europe even more, China will have a stronger position versus EU weaklings than vs. EU doing the right thing now.
Ruzzia-Iran-China is an axis of evil with currently one aggressive member, one contained member and one for-the-moment-silent partner "without limits".

Ruzzia vs. Europe

China vs. USA

and

Iran as a sh*t-stirrer

 

You say "Asian countries" as if they were homogenous and all on the same economic and societal development level as Europe.

China is a member of the axis of evil and North Korea is an associate member. Many other Asian countries aren't democratic in the first place, such as Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and a couple others I forgot, some have enough trouble at home, such as Taiwan and others aren't significant in terms of military and finances. Others aren't economically developed and busy with themselves such as India, Philippines, Indonesia.

 

Let's look at two developed, democratic major Asian countries : Japan and South Korea - both support Ukraine.

 

 

6 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

We already know Chamberlain's politics didn't work.

Your way of thinking is flawed.

Bowing to Ruzzian aggression just to avoid a war with Ruzzia weakens Europe even more, China will have a stronger position versus EU weaklings than vs. EU doing the right thing now.
Ruzzia-Iran-China is an axis of evil with currently one aggressive member, one contained member and one for-the-moment-silent partner "without limits".

Ruzzia vs. Europe

China vs. USA

and

Iran as a sh*t-stirrer

 

You say "Asian countries" as if they were homogenous and all on the same economic and societal development level as Europe.

China is a member of the axis of evil and North Korea is an associate member. Many other Asian countries aren't democratic in the first place, such as Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and a couple others I forgot, some have enough trouble at home, such as Taiwan and others aren't significant in terms of military and finances. Others aren't economically developed and busy with themselves such as India, Philippines, Indonesia.

 

Let's look at two developed, democratic major Asian countries : Japan and South Korea - both support Ukraine.

 

And those two have major US military presences on their soil. I could have a more detailed debate re Chamberlain and alternative history - but it would probably be deleted so I'll leave it here

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive

 

Like the US bases, the countries with the most number of US troops include Japan with 53,700, Germany with 33,900 and South Korea with 26,400.

 

 

[Hummin]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump's latest line is that NATO countries will need to go to 3% of GDP  for defence and not include any monies that are allocated to Ukraine if he is to stay in NATO. That alone would be a huge cost to Europeans something that most voters are blissfully unaware of. Defence spending is an incredibly wasteful use of a nation's capital , Russia included unless you go on a total war footing - which Russia has done. I have read somewhere will try and find a link that it is 10x more wasteful than investment in civilian tech - most middle and western Europeans want butter before guns. Here in the Uk - we're bust infrastucture crumbling all over the place.

One thing is what Trump will do, and able to do, and his deleted show to pull voters. Trump say anything and will continue to say anything to win this vote. He is a bigot bluffing lying criminal. 

 

United states leaving Nato, would make them in same vulnerable situation as Russia. Europe will create stronger bonds, more effective war economy, and Usa will feel the pressure from SA, Africa, Middle east, Asia, and loose their economic position. Nato is great for Usa economy, and one of the big drivers. And what Trump do, is the squise a little bit harder to milk members a bit more

Edited May 19 by Hummin

[tgw]

47 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

And those two have major US military presences on their soil. I could have a more detailed debate re Chamberlain and alternative history - but it would probably be deleted so I'll leave it here

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive

 

Like the US bases, the countries with the most number of US troops include Japan with 53,700, Germany with 33,900 and South Korea with 26,400.

 

You might be on to something here - maybe there is a link between democracy, peace and being protected by a powerful military power or alliance ?

[rabas]

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Starting to see a pivot in the info wars positing the line if Ukraine loses then it will cost our economies much more which is turning truth on it's head.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/18/if-putin-wins-in-ukraine-the-british-economy-will-be-in-the-firing-line

 

Truth doesn't change and stand on it's head, that's the whole point about truth.  Not sure of your point so I'll go with the article's byline:

 

"We and the EU must show the Russian leader we mean business and seize $300bn of his country’s [frozen] central bank funds."

 

Yes!, and the time just arrived today as it's being widely reported that Putin just started seizing assets of European banks in Russia!

 

Russian court seizes €700mn of assets from UniCredit, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank

 

What Putin doing?  His 700M theft could well lead to the seizure of Russia's 300B. The answer may be deep desperation. It's simultaneously being reported that Gazprom, Russia's biggest corp (a main source of elite corruption and mil spending) is in deep dodo and forced to make immediate fire sales to survive (as Ukraine continues pounding Russian petroleum infrastructure)

 

  Putin's Crown Jewel GasProm Forced Into Fire Sale Amid Record Losses Newsweek

 

And, Russia's EU bank asset seizures come immediately after Putin returned from China without his long sought agreement for a gas pipeline to China, probably the reason for the trip. Here is the foundational dodo underlying all this, Russia's 10-year government bond is going through the roof.  

  [source]

Edited May 19 by rabas

[Bkk Brian]

Another one to the bottom. Beautiful!

 

https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1792110322028822560

 

[beautifulthailand99]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Another one to the bottom. Beautiful!

 

https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1792110322028822560

 

They are scoring some good hits on Russia's navy and to a degree are highlighting the vulnerability of large slow defence objects in the age of drones and missiles.Whole classes of what seemed to be vital kit may go the way of the dinosaurs.

[beautifulthailand99]

5 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Truth doesn't change and stand on it's head, that's the whole point about truth.  Not sure of your point so I'll go with the article's byline:

 

"We and the EU must show the Russian leader we mean business and seize $300bn of his country’s [frozen] central bank funds."

 

Yes!, and the time just arrived today as it's being widely reported that Putin just started seizing assets of European banks in Russia!

 

Russian court seizes €700mn of assets from UniCredit, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank

 

What Putin doing?  His 700M theft could well lead to the seizure of Russia's 300B. The answer may be deep desperation. It's simultaneously being reported that Gazprom, Russia's biggest corp (a main source of elite corruption and mil spending) is in deep dodo and forced to make immediate fire sales to survive (as Ukraine continues pounding Russian petroleum infrastructure)

 

  Putin's Crown Jewel GasProm Forced Into Fire Sale Amid Record Losses Newsweek

 

And, Russia's EU bank asset seizures come immediately after Putin returned from China without his long sought agreement for a gas pipeline to China, probably the reason for the trip. Here is the foundational dodo underlying all this, Russia's 10-year government bond is going through the roof.  

  [source]

 

This is what people don't get.....money is ultimately "made up".Physical resources are not. Russia has every resource it would ever need. While other countries still lack food and energy independence.

The only thing Russia wants from China is money and some sanctioned tech that the west helped China build at their expense .....on the other hand China needs energy/food/resources.

There is nothing Russia needs from the world, its the other way around the world needs Russia's resources and the more you push Russia into China's vassallage the more powerful their alliance becomes. Democratic,liberal values aren't a given of successfull empires, indeed at their zenith they may even be an agent their downfall.

 

[mistral53]

As long as commentators in the west preface with 'if Putin wins', they disclose how much they still believe in their own delusional propaganda. There are only two possible scenarios - Russia wins and this will come to a 'reasonable' conclusion, or we are are all fokked because nobody will survive WW lll. People that don't understand that simple fact should not participate in this conversation........

[beautifulthailand99]

Looks like Putin shills have infiltrated the BBC. I don't think that lowering the draft age is going to open up some giant fountain of manpower. In reality the number of undrafted military-age males that age who haven't either 1.already volunteered 2. fled the country or aren't 3. working in some essential position that would exclude them from the draft anyway is pretty small. If you're out of men against a much bigger army in an attritional war you have basically lost unless other armies come to your aid and if the do there's your WW3. One that Biden has been studiously and wisely to my mind in some respect being trying to avoid.

 

A new mobilisation law aimed at addressing this came into force on Saturday.

Under the new rules, the age that people can be conscripted into the war has been lowered from 27 to 25 in an effort to boost recruit numbers.

The flood of volunteers Ukraine saw following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 has now dried up. Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgy4gkqkddo

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

They are scoring some good hits on Russia's navy and to a degree are highlighting the vulnerability of large slow defence objects in the age of drones and missiles.Whole classes of what seemed to be vital kit may go the way of the dinosaurs.

I looked that up my hunch is right naval vessels may be facing an extinction level horizon particuarly if it's hypersonic misiles and drone swarms they are facing. The weapons testing lab that is as sadly the current plight of Ukraine is recalibraring the effectivness  of weapons like no other in the modern age. And that's another reason the US loves it - they've never had so much in-theatre intel from a near peer adversary. 

 

https://archive.ph/AcFrV

[Social Media]

As mentioned in the OP. New opinion piece on the historical lead up to the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

 

Understanding Putin’s Motivations Behind the Ukraine Invasion

https://aseannow.com/topic/1327637-understanding-putin’s-motivations-behind-the-ukraine-invasion/

 

[metisdead]

An off topic post with an off topic trolling image contravening our Community Standards has been removed.

[Mavideol]

Russia-Ukraine war – latest: Putin loses more than 1,500 soldiers in Kharkiv as attack on resort kills 11

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-latest-putin-035046932.html

 

[Mavideol]

can't understand why they don't allow them to defend themselves, the best defense it's attacking, but somehow USA doesn't want that, so sure Russian keeps pounding cities all around Ukraine

Ukraine ups pressure on US to allow strikes in Russia: ‘This is insane’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-ups-pressure-us-allow-160000987.html

[Mavideol]

and more and more unnecessary delays for delivery of the much-needed arms & ammunition's, damn politicians

 

‘We need it to be faster,’ says Ukraine’s ambassador about arms shipments

https://au.yahoo.com/news/faster-says-ukraine-ambassador-arms-231759215.html

[Mavideol]

Ukraine launches 'co-ordinated strikes' against glide bomb Russian airbase - military source

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-launches-co-ordinated-strikes-195200508.html

[Seppius]

56 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

Russia-Ukraine war – latest: Putin loses more than 1,500 soldiers in Kharkiv as attack on resort kills 11

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-latest-putin-035046932.html

 

Ukraine doing rather well under the circumstances, the Russian advance to Kharkiv city has all but ceased, and Ukraine started to regain a little ground, this from various TikTok and Telegram groups, the attack on the airfield was a total success

 

"Mr Putin, speaking in Beijing last week, said his troops have “no plans as of today” to try and take control of Kharkiv city"

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, Seppius said:

Ukraine doing rather well under the circumstances, the Russian advance to Kharkiv city has all but ceased, and Ukraine started to regain a little ground, this from various TikTok and Telegram groups, the attack on the airfield was a total success

 

"Mr Putin, speaking in Beijing last week, said his troops have “no plans as of today” to try and take control of Kharkiv city"

since when can we trust anything out of Putin's mouth....he also said, while amassing his troops at the border,  that he had no intentions of invading Ukraine

[Seppius]

29 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

since when can we trust anything out of Putin's mouth....he also said, while amassing his troops at the border,  that he had no intentions of invading Ukraine

My point was he backed tracked because of the hammering his troops are getting in the Kharkiv, he fully intended to take the city

[beautifulthailand99]

The relationship between Xi and Putin is built to last - A shared antagonism towards the US will prevent tensions between China and Russia from coming to the fore - GIDEON RACHMAN FT.

 

As ever a prescient take from Gideon and this time it is different.

 

In Washington, however, the consensus view is that China is the more dangerous long-term adversary. Some American strategists worry about driving Russia into the arms of China and so altering the global balance of power in Beijing’s favour.
Despite his long-standing admiration for China, this seemed to be the view of Kissinger himself. He told me shortly before his death he was concerned that a weakened Russia would in effect become a satellite of China, with the result that Beijing’s sphere of influence could extend to a few hundred miles from Warsaw.

 

Viewed from Beijing, the defeat of Russia would risk leaving China dangerously isolated. As one Chinese diplomat puts it, sardonically, America’s proposition to Beijing could be summarised as: “Please help us to defeat your closest ally, so that we can turn on you next.”

 

https://archive.ph/W2xxg

Edited May 20 by beautifulthailand99