Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Blimey I read the British Army forum on a daily basis a more battle hardened pro-Ukraine forum you could never meet. It's all Orcs and Mordor and high level optimism but they have turned. Haven't seen that before. It's pretty much over now.

 

https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/war-in-ukraine.304396/page-15448

I like the last bit about how Britain is disarming and couldn't last a couple of weeks. So true IMO. I guess all the money has been going on bombs and missiles for Ukraine. Typical bonkers western "leadership" that couldn't lead the way out of a paper bag.

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

I like the last bit about how Britain is disarming and couldn't last a couple of weeks. So true IMO. I guess all the money has been going on bombs and missiles for Ukraine. Typical bonkers western "leadership" that couldn't lead the way out of a paper bag.

Some of the guys have trained Ukrainians, some are over in country in the foreign legions, all bar 1 or 2 are full on supporters of a Ukrainian victory without question. For them to say what they are saying without pushback or condemnation is just a belated acceptance of the truth. These guys know.

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I like the last bit about how Britain is disarming and couldn't last a couple of weeks. So true IMO. I guess all the money has been going on bombs and missiles for Ukraine. Typical bonkers western "leadership" that couldn't lead the way out of a paper bag.

What's a Bde(-) ?

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

What's a Bde(-) ?

It's a new one on me, and even google comes up with a load of irrelevant stuff.

I can guess it stands for brigade, which would be in context, but I have no idea why the (-), unless it stands for less than a brigade.

 

Seems the UK's military is going in harms way, gutted by the politicians. It's the conscripts that will suffer when the next big one starts.

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I like the last bit about how Britain is disarming and couldn't last a couple of weeks. So true IMO. I guess all the money has been going on bombs and missiles for Ukraine. Typical bonkers western "leadership" that couldn't lead the way out of a paper bag.

"All of the money"?

 

Really?

 

Can you compare the money the UK spends on Ukraine vs the UK military budget?

 

You seem to base your opinion on feelings rather than facts.

[metisdead]

An off topic deflection post about Afghanistan has been removed as this topic is about:

 

Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[beautifulthailand99]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's a new one on me, and even google comes up with a load of irrelevant stuff.

I can guess it stands for brigade, which would be in context, but I have no idea why the (-), unless it stands for less than a brigade.

 

Seems the UK's military is going in harms way, gutted by the politicians. It's the conscripts that will suffer when the next big one starts.

Yes it's brigade. That forum is a sobering read as they they are clinically taking apart from a postion of great authority and huge support for the Ukrainian side the current situation. The fault lines seem to be around too little too late from the allies. Biden's perpetual hesitancy with escalation and the inability of Ukrainian generals to shake off a soviet mindset of artillery frontal assualts against heavy fortifications and disregard for their NATO advisers' advice. They acknowledge now there is mass conscription resistance and that Trump is coming. If peace talks are coming in November then we should expect some big pushes from both sides and maybe some big ticket hits like Kerch so that negotiations come from a position of strength. Oh, and of course a critical lack of an airforce and degradation of crucial air defence capabilities.

 

Then add to that there is virtually no more kit left that allies want to donate as they need it themselves and relevant western military industrial capacity is privately owned , diffcult to scale up quickly and requires long term goverment orders to ensure that any investment will produce an acceptable return. 

 

So Ukraine is out of men, out of weapons and now out of time.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Yes it's brigade. That forum is a sobering read as they they are clinically taking apart from a postion of great authority and huge support for the Ukrainian side the current situation. The fault lines seem to be around too little too late from the allies. Biden's perpetual hesitancy with escalation and the inability of Ukrainian generals to shake off a soviet mindset of artillery frontal assualts against heavy fortifications and disregard for their NATO advisers' advice. They acknowledge now there is mass conscription resistance and that Trump is coming. If peace talks are coming in November then we should expect some big pushes from both sides and maybe some big ticket hits like Kerch so that negotiations come from a position of strength. Oh, and of course a critical lack of an airforce and degradation of crucial air defence capabilities.

 

Then add to that there is virtually no more kit left that allies want to donate as they need it themselves and relevant western military industrial capacity is privately owned , diffcult to scale up quickly and requires long term goverment orders to ensure that any investment will produce an acceptable return. 

 

So Ukraine is out of men, out of weapons and now out of time.

Sooo, barring something really unexpected, like some Euro nitwit politician deciding it would help him get elected if he joined in, it's going to be what I and some others have been saying for 2 years. Of course Zelensky is now negotiating from a position of weakness, unlike 2 years ago.

IMO the human race really is screwed if they carry on like this fiasco. A species that kills it's own isn't going to last long and we've only been around 50,000 years or so, which is hardly any time at all in a planetary sense. Hope the next version works out better.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Biden's perpetual hesitancy with escalation

and thank the deity he did. Had it escalated to the point of Russia being seriously threatened, it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

[thaibeachlovers]

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If peace talks are coming in November then we should expect some big pushes from both sides and maybe some big ticket hits like Kerch so that negotiations come from a position of strength.

Of course the madmen that run things in the human world will take the opportunity to get a lot more of the people that they are supposed to look after killed, so they can take a few more feet of land, before they sit down to divide the spoils. When I think about such things as the last poor conscript to get killed in every last "big push" the human race sickens me.

Up to me if politicians want to go to war, they and their families should be in the front lines from day one. That would be the end of all wars of course.

[thaibeachlovers]

37 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Yes it's brigade. That forum is a sobering read as they they are clinically taking apart from a postion of great authority and huge support for the Ukrainian side the current situation. The fault lines seem to be around too little too late from the allies. Biden's perpetual hesitancy with escalation and the inability of Ukrainian generals to shake off a soviet mindset of artillery frontal assualts against heavy fortifications and disregard for their NATO advisers' advice. They acknowledge now there is mass conscription resistance and that Trump is coming. If peace talks are coming in November then we should expect some big pushes from both sides and maybe some big ticket hits like Kerch so that negotiations come from a position of strength. Oh, and of course a critical lack of an airforce and degradation of crucial air defence capabilities.

 

Then add to that there is virtually no more kit left that allies want to donate as they need it themselves and relevant western military industrial capacity is privately owned , diffcult to scale up quickly and requires long term goverment orders to ensure that any investment will produce an acceptable return. 

 

So Ukraine is out of men, out of weapons and now out of time.

Having piqued my interest I looked up the last page on the Ukraine war in that forum, and it's not exactly bubbling with enthusiasm for a Ukrainian victory. Some of the guys could have been also posting on here for the anti Russian side.

I don't know how it's going to work out for "us", but I'm pretty sure that Putin won't be having a cuppa and a lie down when it's over, and will be creating a war machine that works the next time, while our lot will go back to working out what bit of the military they can axe.

 

Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it and our lot ( if they even took history at school ) obviously never learned anything about Russia. I suppose it's our fault for electing a bunch of numpties.

[beautifulthailand99]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and thank the deity he did. Had it escalated to the point of Russia being seriously threatened, it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

The key piece of the jigsaw that many have missed with their Upper Volta with gas anologies is that Russia for all it's gaping faults and issues is a near peer adversary - approach with extreme caution, just ask Napoleon or Hitler if you could. Forget that or triviliase their capabilities then you are constructing your very own trap. Nor do they care about human rights, health and safety , human life and can create a command economy almost at will. These are known knowns that either the US forgot or studiously chose to ignore whilst cheerleading Ukraine into a spirited defence rather than an ignoble but early peace. Blame lies there alongside Putin. 😕

[Bkk Brian]

57 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and thank the deity he did. Had it escalated to the point of Russia being seriously threatened, it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

 

 it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

 

Russia the boy who cried wolf or rather in your case @thaibeachlovers  who keeps crying MAD

 

Russia’s retreat from Crimea makes a mockery of the West’s escalation fears

This week marked another milestone in the Battle of the Black Sea as the Russian Navy reportedly withdrew its last remaining patrol ship from occupied Crimea. The news was announced by Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk, who signaled the historic nature of the Russian retreat with the words: “Remember this day.”

The withdrawal of Russian warships from Crimea is the latest indication that against all odds, Ukraine is actually winning the war at sea. When Russia first began the blockade of Ukraine’s ports on the eve of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, few believed the ramshackle Ukrainian Navy could seriously challenge the dominance of the mighty Russian Black Sea Fleet. Once hostilities were underway, however, it soon became apparent that Ukraine had no intention of conceding control of the Black Sea to Putin without a fight.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-retreat-from-crimea-makes-a-mockery-of-the-wests-escalation-fears/

[beautifulthailand99]

34 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

 

Russia the boy who cried wolf or rather in your case @thaibeachlovers  who keeps crying MAD

 

Russia’s retreat from Crimea makes a mockery of the West’s escalation fears

This week marked another milestone in the Battle of the Black Sea as the Russian Navy reportedly withdrew its last remaining patrol ship from occupied Crimea. The news was announced by Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk, who signaled the historic nature of the Russian retreat with the words: “Remember this day.”

The withdrawal of Russian warships from Crimea is the latest indication that against all odds, Ukraine is actually winning the war at sea. When Russia first began the blockade of Ukraine’s ports on the eve of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, few believed the ramshackle Ukrainian Navy could seriously challenge the dominance of the mighty Russian Black Sea Fleet. Once hostilities were underway, however, it soon became apparent that Ukraine had no intention of conceding control of the Black Sea to Putin without a fight.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-retreat-from-crimea-makes-a-mockery-of-the-wests-escalation-fears/

The big lesson of Ukraine is slow moving big ticket assets are very vulnerable to cheap DIY weapons - it's leveled the playing field drastically and probaly one I'd wager that NATO doesn't want to confront directly. That and manpower , lots of it and ammo , lots of it win the wars in the end. I'd add democracy, public accountabilty and a free press are a drag on action once the shooting starts and wars and armies that can fight them cost money, big money and voters have choices.

Edited July 21 by beautifulthailand99

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The big lesson of Ukraine is slow moving big ticket assets are very vulnerable to cheap DIY weapons - it's leveled the playing field drastically and probaly one I'd wager that NATO doesn't want to confront directly. That and manpower , lots of it and ammo , lots of it win the wars in the end. I'd add democracy, public accountabilty and a free press are a drag on action once the shooting starts and wars and armies that can fight them cost money, big money and voters have choices.

Actually the big lesson is for the poster I addressed it to.

 

39 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 it's a hop step and jump to MAD.

 

Russia the boy who cried wolf or rather in your case @thaibeachlovers  who keeps crying MAD

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Actually the big lesson is for the poster I addressed it to.

 

 

The US seems to beleive that Russia may consider tactical battlefield nukes if backed into a losing corner as a raise the stakes in a demonic poker game of call my bluff. Cue cries of NATO will bomb them back into the stoneage if they do that. Quite. His point stands.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-holding-nuclear-exercises-what-watch-2024-05-15/

 

"He is not saying that he is about to do so, but warning that there are some conditions under which he would do so," said Chivvis, a former U.S. intelligence official.
"It seems unlikely Russia would use such weapons offensively to make gains on the battlefield. More likely, they would use them defensively in a situation where Russian forces were rapidly retreating and significant losses seemed probable."

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The US seems to beleive that Russia may consider tactical battlefield nukes if backed into a losing corner as a raise the stakes in a demonic poker game of call my bluff. Cue cries of NATO will bomb them back into the stoneage if they do that. Quite. His point stands.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-holding-nuclear-exercises-what-watch-2024-05-15/

 

"He is not saying that he is about to do so, but warning that there are some conditions under which he would do so," said Chivvis, a former U.S. intelligence official.
"It seems unlikely Russia would use such weapons offensively to make gains on the battlefield. More likely, they would use them defensively in a situation where Russian forces were rapidly retreating and significant losses seemed probable."

a former U.S. intelligence official 

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

a former U.S. intelligence official 

You or him ..... hmmmm

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/people/christopher-s-chivvis?lang=en

 

Chris Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has more than two decades of experience working on U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges.  He most recently served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe.  

At Carnegie, Chivvis leads policy-focused research aimed at developing realistic U.S. strategy for an era of great power competition and building a foreign policy that serves the needs of the American people.

Chivvis’ experience with U.S. foreign policy spans government, academia, and the think tank world. Before joining the National Intelligence Council, he was the deputy head of the RAND Corporation’s international security program and worked in the Defense Department. He also has held positions at multiple universities and think tanks in the United States and Europe.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You or him ..... hmmmm

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/people/christopher-s-chivvis?lang=en

 

Chris Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has more than two decades of experience working on U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges.  He most recently served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe.  

At Carnegie, Chivvis leads policy-focused research aimed at developing realistic U.S. strategy for an era of great power competition and building a foreign policy that serves the needs of the American people.

Chivvis’ experience with U.S. foreign policy spans government, academia, and the think tank world. Before joining the National Intelligence Council, he was the deputy head of the RAND Corporation’s international security program and worked in the Defense Department. He also has held positions at multiple universities and think tanks in the United States and Europe.

Need to read your own posts, your claim was the US was saying this' Your own post says : a former U.S. intelligence official.

 

12 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The US seems to beleive that Russia may consider tactical battlefield nukes if backed into a losing corner as a raise the stakes in a demonic poker game of call my bluff. Cue cries of NATO will bomb them back into the stoneage if they do that. Quite. His point stands.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-holding-nuclear-exercises-what-watch-2024-05-15/

 

"He is not saying that he is about to do so, but warning that there are some conditions under which he would do so," said Chivvis, a former U.S. intelligence official.
"It seems unlikely Russia would use such weapons offensively to make gains on the battlefield. More likely, they would use them defensively in a situation where Russian forces were rapidly retreating and significant losses seemed probable."

 

Edited July 21 by Bkk Brian

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Need to read your own posts, your claim was the US was saying this

 

 

Well the policy of strategic ambiguity means that we will never officially know but we should tread very carefully when dealing with a nuclear power particuarly one led by an autocrat that links his country's destiny with his own. So it's not MAD to factor that in - indeed it's MAD not to.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/18/taiwan-us-china-strategic-ambiguity-military-strategy-asymmetric-defense-invasion/

 

“We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky every time.”  The Provisional Irish Republican Army after the Brighton bomb.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

Well the policy of strategic ambiguity means that we will never officially know but we should tread very carefully when dealing with a nuclear power particuarly one led by an autocrat that links his country's destiny with his own. So it's not MAD to factor that in - indeed it's MAD not to.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/18/taiwan-us-china-strategic-ambiguity-military-strategy-asymmetric-defense-invasion/

 

“We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky every time.”  The Provisional Irish Republican Army after the Brighton bomb.

Deflection to your claim

[beautifulthailand99]

Julian Ropcke - BILD's uber Ukraine supporter and cheerleader - telling the unvarnished truth - it's a rout.

 

 

Edited July 21 by beautifulthailand99

[Social Media]

Posts removed, this topic is not about other posters who you have on ignore @thaibeachlovers If you want to debate with them then do so directly.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Julian Ropcke - BILD's uber Ukraine supporter and cheerleader - telling the unvarnished truth - it's a rout.

 

 

Oops, that's going to make it harder for western governments to justify sending lots of taxpayers money to get blown up.

One can only wish that the western "leaders" that wasted all the money on a doomed cause will suffer for it, but in reality they never do. Even the <deleted> Kissinger walks free as a bird instead of in a federal prison.

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Oops, that's going to make it harder for western governments to justify sending lots of taxpayers money to get blown up.

One can only wish that the western "leaders" that wasted all the money on a doomed cause will suffer for it, but in reality they never do. Even the <deleted> Kissinger walks free as a bird instead of in a federal prison.

That's why Scholz halved the money and Zelenskiy is talking about peace talks, that and thousands of guided FAB bombs pummelling eveything that moves on the front lines untroubled by non existent air defences. It's hell on earth particuarly so for Ukrainian troops.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

That's why Scholz halved the money and Zelenskiy is talking about peace talks, that and thousands of guided FAB bombs pummelling eveything that moves on the front lines untroubled by non existent air defences. It's hell on earth particuarly so for Ukrainian troops.

 

 

It's hell on earth particuarly so for Ukrainian troops.

 

One wonders if Biden's current troubles are caused by Ukrainian  troops sticking pins into Biden dolls for putting them in the situation?

[transam]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's hell on earth particuarly so for Ukrainian troops.

 

One wonders if Biden's current troubles are caused by Ukrainian  troops sticking pins into Biden dolls for putting them in the situation?

What a stupid post, your hero Putin is targetting civilian residences, I bet you are so proud of him.......🥴

[Bkk Brian]

Still not sorted out the ball bearing problem in Russia 

 

A quarter of Moscow's Il-76 planes failed due to low-quality parts, Russian media reports

Russia has lost five of its 18 Il-76 MD-90A aircraft due to poor-quality wheel bearings, the state-run media outlet Kommersant and the independent publication Important Stories reported on July 19.

Il-76 planes are military aircraft designed for the transportation of troops and cargo.

Russia's Investigative Committee has opened a criminal investigation against the Balashikhinsky Foundry and Mechanical Plant (BLMZ), the company that supplied the failed parts.

https://kyivindependent.com/a-quarter-of-moscows-il-76-planes-failed-due-to-low-quality-parts-russian-media-reports/

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 7/21/2024 at 3:58 AM, beautifulthailand99 said:

Some of the guys have trained Ukrainians, some are over in country in the foreign legions, all bar 1 or 2 are full on supporters of a Ukrainian victory without question. For them to say what they are saying without pushback or condemnation is just a belated acceptance of the truth. These guys know.

The passage you quoted in your earlier post is from one contributor and is by no means the majority view - and there's is definitely pushback. Here's what one poster wrote in reply.

 

Quote

I would respectfully suggest that you may be looking from a "cup half empty" perspective and thus, like many others, inadvertently singing along to the Kremlin song and adding volume to its refrain.

 

If I may suggest that from the opposite perspective, Putin does not have either time on his side or manpower.

[...]

The previously much vaunted Russian war machine has been revealed to be a crock and equipment losses are becoming unsustainable. A reliance on ordnance supplies from North Korea and Iran is evidence of Russian frailty.

This post got 25 likes, whereas the post it was replying to got only 4 so it's clear which is the view that more of the contributors on that site favour.

Edited July 22 by GroveHillWanderer

[kwonitoy]