Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

nope.

Ruzzians already are using ALL of their arsenal to blow up everything they can in Ukraine, so there won't be a change.

 

All of Ruzzia's monthly missile production is used in swarming strikes once or twice a month, which is a tactic to overwhelm Ukrainian air defence.

 

 

I wouldn't bet on it.

 

A senior officer from one of the Baltic states and no friend of Russia recently told me “the Russians are not stupid; they learn; and when they decide on something, they’re relentless”.

 

First and most-importantly at the political level, Russia’s military economy, despite the pressures of western sanctions, is doing well. Just as happened during the Second World War, Russia has transferred much of its industry towards military production. Its ammunition supply has improved, albeit with the assistance of North Korea. Iran too has pitched in with its slow but effective Shahed drones in addition to thousands of other weapons systems. Very recently, the UK has claimed that China has begun to supply “lethal aid”.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

 

 

[johng]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"Ukrainian losses are well worth the price !"

 

"keep the Ukrainians in this fight"

"it is extremely good value for money"

"without the loss of a single American life"

ergo  Ukrainian losses are well worth the price  ( + the Russian losses too)

 

[tgw]

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I wouldn't bet on it.

 

A senior officer from one of the Baltic states and no friend of Russia recently told me “the Russians are not stupid; they learn; and when they decide on something, they’re relentless”.

 

First and most-importantly at the political level, Russia’s military economy, despite the pressures of western sanctions, is doing well. Just as happened during the Second World War, Russia has transferred much of its industry towards military production. Its ammunition supply has improved, albeit with the assistance of North Korea. Iran too has pitched in with its slow but effective Shahed drones in addition to thousands of other weapons systems. Very recently, the UK has claimed that China has begun to supply “lethal aid”.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

 

my point is, Ruzzia is already throwing all it has on Ukraine, and they will continue to do so in future, regardless of Ukraine being able to strike military targets in Ruzzia or not.

Of course, Ruzzia's arsenal could grow with the assistance of other evil countries.
But that's not connected to Ukraine being able to use US weapons to strike Ruzzian military targets in a narrow 150 to 200 Km band around the Ukrainian border.
Ruzzian escalation would have happened anyway.

Edited June 7 by tgw

[beautifulthailand99]

This corruption angle is being highlighted in numerous western MSM articles now.

 

Ukrainian officials are particularly irritated with the U.S. ambassador, Bridget Brink  The number two at Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine was reportedly suspended last month after a leak within the agency compromised a high-profile investigation into a road-building project involving government money.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-zelenskyy-meet-tensions-us-military-aid-rcna155718

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, johng said:

 

"keep the Ukrainians in this fight"

"it is extremely good value for money"

"without the loss of a single American life"

ergo  Ukrainian losses are well worth the price  ( + the Russian losses too)

 

Thanks for the confirmation you failed. 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thanks for the confirmation you failed. 

What do you need I will find it if it exists.

[beautifulthailand99]

That article I qouted up thread deserves a post of it's own and very much chimes with my current thinking on the state of the adversaries and is by a former British militray intellgence officer.

 

The Russians have proved themselves to be effective at regularly neutralising Ukraine’s initial edge in technology. Russia, though, has maintained its superiority in electronic warfare. For example, jamming of precision Western weaponry has considerably reduced its effectiveness. New missile systems have a “grace period” of only a few weeks before Russia develops countermeasures.

Finally, on the equipment front, not only have the Russians proved themselves able to jam Ukrainian signals to their lethal FPV drones, but Russian drone production has outstripped the Ukrainians’ capacity.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

[thaibeachlovers]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This corruption angle is being highlighted in numerous western MSM articles now.

 

Ukrainian officials are particularly irritated with the U.S. ambassador, Bridget Brink  The number two at Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine was reportedly suspended last month after a leak within the agency compromised a high-profile investigation into a road-building project involving government money.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-zelenskyy-meet-tensions-us-military-aid-rcna155718

From the link

 

He wrote on X that it was “not the right time, not the right time at all. So many people die every day because we don’t have enough weapons and enough support from our allies.”

 

Perhaps they should have thought about that before they rejected negotiations. Always a losing prospect depending on countries that may have domestic issues affecting public/ government support.

Given that no western country has a treaty with Ukraine, none are obligated to help.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

What do you need I will find it if it exists.

I don't need anything from you thanks, its been tedious enough getting johng to back up his claims. No point you looking for something that doesn't exist.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

That article I qouted up thread deserves a post of it's own and very much chimes with my current thinking on the state of the adversaries and is by a former British militray intellgence officer.

 

The Russians have proved themselves to be effective at regularly neutralising Ukraine’s initial edge in technology. Russia, though, has maintained its superiority in electronic warfare. For example, jamming of precision Western weaponry has considerably reduced its effectiveness. New missile systems have a “grace period” of only a few weeks before Russia develops countermeasures.

Finally, on the equipment front, not only have the Russians proved themselves able to jam Ukrainian signals to their lethal FPV drones, but Russian drone production has outstripped the Ukrainians’ capacity.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russias-battle-hardened-army-learning-very-bad-news-nato-3074506

Oh dear oh dear, is it all going wrong for Mr Zelensky ( and all the Ukrainians that will die in this proxy war )?

[beautifulthailand99]

38 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Oh dear oh dear, is it all going wrong for Mr Zelensky ( and all the Ukrainians that will die in this proxy war )?

I do beleive Putin prefers Biden as he fears the unpredicatability of Trump. But if Trump wins and then get sight of the intellgence briefings on corruption in Ukraine he probably gets the levers he needs.

This one snuck out a month ago in the WSJ about Zelenkiy's key and vital aide his virtual shadow and closest friend in power who most in the west have barely heard of.

 

Yermak’s closeness to the president — and evident influence over him — has drawn a barrage of accusations: that he has undemocratically consolidated power in the president’s office; overseen an unneeded purge of top officials, including commander in chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny; restricted access to Zelensky; and sought personal control over nearly every big wartime decision.

 

 

https://archive.ph/letiJ#selection-445.0-451.175

Edited June 7 by cdnvic
Edited to fair use length

[tgw]

58 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This coming out of Carnegie is probably a little heads up that we are at the limit of what the US will authorise and alarm at what a desperte Ukraine may do. It's an inner Beltway think tank and has the ear of the President and his advisers and maybe even channels his voice.

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/06/ukraine-prohibition-us-weapons-strike-russia?lang=en

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnegie_Endowment_for_International_Peace

 

The unfortunate reality is that there is a divergence between U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Kyiv has demonstrated that, in fighting off Russian aggression, it is willing to raise the risk of Russian nuclear use. Fair enough. Americans have their own interests, including seeing Ukraine successfully preserve its freedom and independence, but without risking a nuclear war in the process. It is not enough for American officials to express concern to Kyiv about the recent strikes. The United States should decline to further loosen its restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons. To relax the rules would risk American weapons being used against highly sensitive targets in Russia—including nuclear installations or leadership facilities, as well as early warning radars—thus potentially dragging the United States into in a high-stakes crisis against a nuclear-armed adversary.

 

the Carnegie writer is not in the loop it seems.

 

I see Ukraine's strikes on the Radar as a very clever part of ... I don't know what to call it, maybe you can find a name for what they are based on my explanation.

 

Here it goes :

 

- US going to authorize strikes with US weapons on Ruzzia

- Ruzzia hates the US

- Ukraine strikes Ruzzian radars with Ukrainian made weapons. The first radar was a useful military target, the second one.. doubtful. BUT ... it enraged the Ruzzians even more.

Effect : suddenly the US dissuading Ukraine from striking strategic Ruzzian early warning radars becomes a bargaining chip

which makes authorizing using US weapons to strike Ruzzian military targets within a narrow band around Ukraine seem like a lesser evil for Ruzzia, and at the same time clarifies the necessity for the West to better support Ukraine's defence efforts.

 

well played, Budanov !

Edited June 7 by tgw

[tgw]

30 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

From the link

 

He wrote on X that it was “not the right time, not the right time at all. So many people die every day because we don’t have enough weapons and enough support from our allies.”

 

Perhaps they should have thought about that before they rejected negotiations. Always a losing prospect depending on countries that may have domestic issues affecting public/ government support.

Given that no western country has a treaty with Ukraine, none are obligated to help.

 

maybe you could explain about the negotiations, what deal was offered by Ruzzia ?

[cdnvic]

Two things:

 

1. X, Facebook, or other social media posts are not proper citations. Cite a real source.
2. Stop reporting each other for trivial things. Moderators are not here to fight your battles.

 

 

Thank you.

[johng]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thanks for the confirmation you failed. 

Thanks for the confirmation that you can't put 2 and 2 together, read between the lines or deviate from the "narrative"  👍

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, johng said:

Thanks for the confirmation that you can't put 2 and 2 together, read between the lines or deviate from the "narrative"  👍

You gave a precise quote, there is no such quote in existence. Its as simple as that

[GroveHillWanderer]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and the Russians will just blow up more of Ukraine in response.

That's as may be, but they now won't be able to do it using the weapons and sites inside Russia that were taken out by the US-made HIMARS.

Edited June 7 by GroveHillWanderer

[jvs]

 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, jvs said:

 

Far be it from me to assume a mod role but one of esteemed ones did just remind us about acceptable sources and I'm not sure "Warthog Defense" You Tube channel falls into that.

[transam]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Far be it from me to assume a mod role but one of esteemed ones did just remind us about acceptable sources and I'm not sure "Warthog Defense" You Tube channel falls into that.

Why, they do show how it is in Ukraine, and the mess Putin's forces are making of it, now running out of Generals, all getting the sack or worse.........🥺

[beautifulthailand99]

28 minutes ago, transam said:

Why, they do show how it is in Ukraine, and the mess Putin's forces are making of it, now running out of Generals, all getting the sack or worse.........🥺

I shouldn't with your long and illustrious posting history have to remind you of the rules. The most famous video of the war that I have seen is one of a Russian tanker taking out singlehandlely 8 armored vehicles inclduing 2 tanks  last year with their comrades on the radio frantically trying to get them out of there.  It was having seen that I realiased that Russian troops like their Ukarainian counterparts are no slouches - they rightly or wrongly are proud patriots who fight and die for their country. Something I would devoutly wish not to do.

[transam]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I shouldn't with your long and illustrious posting history have to remind you of the rules. The most famous video of the war that I have seen is one of a Russian tanker taking out singlehandlely 8 armored vehicles inclduing 2 tanks  last year with their comrades on the radio frantically trying to get them out of there.  It was having seen that I realiased that Russian troops like their Ukarainian counterparts are no slouches - they rightly or wrongly are proud patriots who fight and die for their country. Something I would devoutly wish not to do.

Both sides are losing young men for Putin's dream, nothing else. I feel sorry for the Russian folk, their country has been ostracized, the countries move to real freedom has collapsed, gone backwards in no time, and all for what, one man's land grab dream....🥴

[kwonitoy]

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, kwonitoy said:

 

 

Igor Lipsits is a famous Russian economist, now in exile as are many qualified Russians. He often discusses how Putin's war is destroying the fabric of Russia. 

 

He writes for The Insider RU. Here is a full article by him:  How the war will bankrupt the Russian economy

 

His message is identical to that of another exiled Russian in this video from INSIDER RUSSIA  posted by jvs on the previous page. Everything in the video is exactly what my Russian friends have told me over the last 30+ years. I can't recommend this video enough.

 

If you want to know the real truth about Putin's Russia, look for qualified Russians who love their country, are outside and safe from assassination, and who want to tell the story. Garry Kasparov and Julia Ioffe are two excellent examples. 

 

Edited June 7 by rabas

[Seppius]

4 hours ago, transam said:

Why, they do show how it is in Ukraine, and the mess Putin's forces are making of it, now running out of Generals, all getting the sack or worse.........🥺

Show me any channel that does? Even the Russian channels on Telegram can not, but only Ukrainian cities they are bombing civilians

[TedG]

I wonder if Putin lies awake at night, regretting his invasion of Ukraine.   

[beautifulthailand99]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Igor Lipsits is a famous Russian economist, now in exile as are many qualified Russians. He often discusses how Putin's war is destroying the fabric of Russia. 

 

He writes for The Insider RU. Here is a full article by him:  How the war will bankrupt the Russian economy

 

His message is identical to that of another exiled Russian in this video from INSIDER RUSSIA  posted by jvs on the previous page. Everything in the video is exactly what my Russian friends have told me over the last 30+ years. I can't recommend this video enough.

 

If you want to know the real truth about Putin's Russia, look for qualified Russians who love their country, are outside and safe from assassination, and who want to tell the story. Garry Kasparov and Julia Ioffe are two excellent examples. 

 

You say famous but there isn't even a Wikipedia article about him nor is he qouted or has written in any western mainstream journal that would pass this parishes sniff test. So it's an opinion from a marginal figure at best. Others are raising the alarm about complacent mythologies in the west and with good cause.

 

https://archive.ph/YTurB

 

These shifts are tectonic. Even in czarist times, Russia shipped its commodities to Europe and relied on imports from the West of manufactured goods. Russia’s oligarchs, blacklisted by most Western countries, have had to adapt to the new reality. Last month, the businessman Vladimir Potanin, whose fortune is estimated at $23.7 billion, announced that his copper and nickel empire would reorient toward China, including by moving production facilities into the country. “If we’re more integrated into the Chinese economy,” he said, “we’ll be more protected.”

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo

 

The story of the price cap highlights a dilemma for the US and its partners.

Recognising that Russia is one of the largest players on the global energy market, they have tried to keep Russian oil flowing to avoid hiking energy prices. The result of that is that Moscow is still making money.

“In a way, we refused to properly sanction Russian oil,” Elina Ribakova concludes. “This price cap is an attempt to have our cake and eat it. The priorities are to allow Russian oil on to the market and to reduce Russia’s revenue. And when these two priorities conflict, unfortunately the first one wins. That allows Russia to raise a lot of revenues and continue with the war.”

 

The article then ends with a signoff that infrastructure spend has taken a dive as resources go into the war ecomomy. Pot.Kettle.Black.

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, TedG said:

I wonder if Putin lies awake at night, regretting his invasion of Ukraine.   

He may have done at the start but now he is probaly filled with an elation of meglamaniac certainty of his own destiny in history. He is a short arse after all. They are the worse  - Napoleon complex - though Putin apparently has a half inch on Napoleon at 5 foot 7 inches which is exactly the same size as Zelenskiy. I have just fact checked that myself.

 

The Napoleon complex, also known as Napoleon syndrome and short-man syndrome, is a purported condition normally attributed to people of short stature, with overly aggressive or domineering social behavior. It implies that such behavior is to compensate for the subject's physical or social shortcomings.

[Danderman123]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and the Russians will just blow up more of Ukraine in response.

The question is why you are so upset about Mexicans crossing the US border illegally, but are okay with Russians crossing the Ukrainian border illegally.

[Danderman123]

15 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

From the link

 

He wrote on X that it was “not the right time, not the right time at all. So many people die every day because we don’t have enough weapons and enough support from our allies.”

 

Perhaps they should have thought about that before they rejected negotiations. Always a losing prospect depending on countries that may have domestic issues affecting public/ government support.

Given that no western country has a treaty with Ukraine, none are obligated to help.

If someone invaded your house, would you negotiate with them, and maybe give them a few rooms?