[OT] heavily discounting of EV in Australia [OT]

[KhunLA]

4 minutes ago, In the jungle said:

 

You think because it has natural in the name it is 'green'?

 

Hilarious.

I was replying to someone implying TH uses a lot of coal, and has little to no hydro.  

 

It's a work in progress ... less oil & coal is a good thing.   Don't you think ?

Not too bad for a 3rd world country ... IMHO

 

Making huge strides in solar, or at least trying.  

[atpeace]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

 

According to my current information, there is no such thing as an independent SoH for batteries.

The car computers or the manufacturers might have such information, but it seems that information is not available for the car owners or anybody else. I.e. it would be useful to know if the battery was often fast charged. It seems in the moment buyers can only ask the previous owner and hope to get a correct answer. 

The new batteries have basically a mini computer that tracks the health of the battery among other things  Have three such batteries around the house I use for different things over the past 5 years. 

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

According to my current information, there is no such thing as an independent SoH for batteries.

The car computers or the manufacturers might have such information, but it seems that information is not available for the car owners or anybody else. I.e. it would be useful to know if the battery was often fast charged. It seems in the moment buyers can only ask the previous owner and hope to get a correct answer. 

Explains everything ... nuff said

[Bandersnatch]

57 minutes ago, connda said:

Get real.  Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Mae Mot coal generation plant in Lampang has added capacity.  What hydro?  From the Mekong River?  Renewables?  Where?

 

The citation I used was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Thailand I didn't post the link because the screen print showed Wikipedia in the title, I assumed it was obvious, apparently not! 

 

I don't know if you have ever contributed to a Wikipedia article but they are peer reviewed and most are pretty accurate. If you feel that the statistics quoted in the table were inaccurate, maybe you have some more up to date data you can edit the wiki yourself once you have signed up for an account.

 

These are the refences that need your attention:

 

 

57 minutes ago, connda said:

If they are smart they'll get serious about nuclear

 

This was a recent discussion on Nuclear in Thailand with a focus on SMRs

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1328635-thailand-urged-to-embrace-nuclear-power-to-meet-carbon-zero-goals

 

This was my reply to that discussion: 

 

As of 2023, only China and Russia have successfully built operational SMRs

 

The US Department of Energy had estimated the first SMR in the United States would be completed by NuScale Power around 2030, but this deal has since fallen through after the customers backed out due to rising costs.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor

 

 

57 minutes ago, connda said:

Solar and wind is a waste of money and inefficient on a good day. 

 

I am not an expert on wind. I did test the wind speed on the third floor of my house using an anemometer, but never got more that 5M/s which is not enough for domestic VAWTs

 

I would consider myself a bit of an expert on Solar having been off-grid with solar in Thailand for 7 years now. 

 

The payback on my solar system was 6 years so it's already making a surplus.  Even if was 10 years that is a 10% return on investment and you consider that a "waste of money"

 

You claim that solar is inefficient this shows that have no clue at all how solar works. 

 

Solar power for my home is 95% efficient panel to plug 

Powering my EVs it drops to 90% due to the double inversion required. 

 

The average efficiencies of power generation are 35% for coal, 45% for natural gas and 38% for oil-fired power generation. 

https://geospatial.blogs.com/geospatial/2010/01/energy-efficiency-of-fossil-fuel-power-generation.html

 

 

 

Edited June 2 by Bandersnatch

[In the jungle]

23 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I was replying to someone implying TH uses a lot of coal, and has little to no hydro.  

 

It's a work in progress ... less oil & coal is a good thing.   Don't you think ?

Not too bad for a 3rd world country ... IMHO

 

Making huge strides in solar, or at least trying.  

 

Less oil and coal is good but natural gas is also a hydrocarbon fossil fuel.

[vinny41]

Power generation capacity in Thailand 2023, by type(in 1,000 gigawatt hours)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1072093/thailand-power-generation-capacity-by-type/

Natural Gas 129.4

Imported fuel 32.81

Coal and ignite 30.43

renewable energy 23.18

hydroelectricity 6.59

Similar figures can also be found here

https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/data-explorer/

[KhunLA]

9 minutes ago, In the jungle said:

 

Less oil and coal is good but natural gas is also a hydrocarbon fossil fuel.

Never stated or thought it wasn't.

 

No reason why TH isn't energized by solar, hydro, wind ... oh wait, there is a reason.   Same every sunny country isn't.  But we all know that & why.

 

That's why some of us don't wait for others to act on our behalf, as we know they won't.

 

If not part of the solution, then you're part of the problem.

[GroveHillWanderer]

8 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Who expects batteries to last 20 years?

The manufacturers do. And not just expect - it's what they're finding is actually the case.

 

Here's just one example. In the words of Nissan’s UK Marketing Director Nic Thomas, in an interview with Forbes Magazine:

 

"Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars.

 

It’s the complete opposite of what people feared when we first launched EVs—that the batteries would only last a short time. Many EV batteries may outlast their vehicles, then enjoy a second life in a stationary storage application before finally being recycled.

 

At the end of the vehicle’s life—15 or 20 years down the road—you take the battery out of the car, and it’s still healthy, with perhaps 60 or 70% of usable charge.”

 

Nissan exec: “Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars”

 

Other industry analysts have also come to similar conclusions.

 

"According to current industry expectations, EV batteries are projected to last between 100,000 and 200,000 miles, or about 15 to 20 years.

 

This is quite a bit more than the average life expectancy of a car, which is only 12 years. In other words, EV batteries are predicted to outlast the vehicle they’re in."

 

How long do batteries last in electric cars?

Edited June 2 by GroveHillWanderer

[GroveHillWanderer]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

According to my current information, there is no such thing as an independent SoH for batteries.

The car computers or the manufacturers might have such information, but it seems that information is not available for the car owners or anybody else. I.e. it would be useful to know if the battery was often fast charged. It seems in the moment buyers can only ask the previous owner and hope to get a correct answer. 

You keep trotting out all these same old myths about EV batteries (and EV's in general). This one - about fast charging, has been debunked many times 

 

Does Fast Charging Damage EV Batteries?

 

"So is DC fast charging bad for the battery?

 

The short answer is no, not really. Fast charging has little impact on battery capacity, battery health, or long-term loss of vehicle range.

 

Several studies have been conducted to look for a potential link between fast charging and battery degradation. However, each study shows minimal overall impact on battery degradation."

[connda]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Wow ... surprised of the ignorance some show when posting.  You obviously don't get out much.

 

 

I stand corrected.  Natural gas.  Doh!  Nice chart regarding the dams (4%)  Wind and solar - Wow! (5% when there is wind or sun).  But - hydrocarbons rule the roost.  However, like I said - Thailand really needs to look into nuclear.  Wind and solar ain't gonna power AI data centers or EVs.  FYI - I like solar for offsetting electricity at home.  Home solar rocks.  But for commercial power generation?  It's a loser.  Once Thailand joins the BRICS+ they can work with Russia to establish some Gen 3+ nuke reactors.  Well - unless we are all nuked before that (different thread). 

 

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

The BMS (battery management system) keeps detailed figures on the performance of each cell within the pack and produces a state of health report.

 

You also get a similar figure from the range indication after a full charge, you can compare that to the figure quoted at bew ti work out % degradation 

 

Try a google search for Loxley Solar to see what just one company has achieved and intends to do.  There are dozens of such companies.

Let's carpet farmland, lakes, and deforested forests with solar panels.  <laughs>  I wonder how much farmland you need to cover with solar panels to run a 5 GW AI data center?
This is what I love about this.  "We need solar to save the planet from CO2."  Yep - by cutting down forests and covering productive farmland (you know - the green thingys the suck in CO2 and spit out O2) with solar panels.  And when the solar panels down work anymore.  Throw them into a landfill and allow the toxicity to leach into the groundwater.  Great idea. 

We need hydrocarbon based energy and hydro-electric where it can be produced, and nuclear.  That should give the planet time to get us to when fusion-powered reactors become a reality, then we can all look back on this "Green Energy" nonsense (wind - solar) and have a good laugh. 

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

The BMS (battery management system) keeps detailed figures on the performance of each cell within the pack and produces a state of health report.

 

You also get a similar figure from the range indication after a full charge, you can compare that to the figure quoted at bew ti work out % degradation

Yes, the BMS might do that. But that doesn't mean this information is available to anybody.

And about the range: It seems that is often overoptimistic. Or not?

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, atpeace said:

The new batteries have basically a mini computer that tracks the health of the battery among other things  Have three such batteries around the house I use for different things over the past 5 years. 

Yes, correct.

But it doesn't mean that for all batteries that information is available. From what I read and saw the car/battery manufacturers (i.e. Tesla) don't allow outsiders to get that information.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The manufacturers do. And not just expect - it's what they're finding is actually the case.

 

Here's just one example. In the words of Nissan’s UK Marketing Director Nic Thomas, in an interview with Forbes Magazine:

 

"Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars.

 

It’s the complete opposite of what people feared when we first launched EVs—that the batteries would only last a short time. Many EV batteries may outlast their vehicles, then enjoy a second life in a stationary storage application before finally being recycled.

 

At the end of the vehicle’s life—15 or 20 years down the road—you take the battery out of the car, and it’s still healthy, with perhaps 60 or 70% of usable charge.”

 

Nissan exec: “Almost all of the EV batteries we’ve made are still in cars”

 

Other industry analysts have also come to similar conclusions.

 

"According to current industry expectations, EV batteries are projected to last between 100,000 and 200,000 miles, or about 15 to 20 years.

 

This is quite a bit more than the average life expectancy of a car, which is only 12 years. In other words, EV batteries are predicted to outlast the vehicle they’re in."

 

How long do batteries last in electric cars?

Great, then I am sure they will give at least 15 years warranty on their batteries, correct? 

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

You keep trotting out all these same old myths about EV batteries (and EV's in general). This one - about fast charging, has been debunked many times 

 

Does Fast Charging Damage EV Batteries?

 

"So is DC fast charging bad for the battery?

 

The short answer is no, not really. Fast charging has little impact on battery capacity, battery health, or long-term loss of vehicle range.

 

Several studies have been conducted to look for a potential link between fast charging and battery degradation. However, each study shows minimal overall impact on battery degradation."

There are also studies out there that smoking is good for your health...

[still kicking]

11 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I really like to see how the EV market will develop over the next decade or so.

Who would want to buy i.e. a 10 year old vehicle which needs a new battery when the battery costs (almost?) as much as a new vehicle?

 

I watch a YouTube channel where a guy restores old BMWs. Some of them are 30 years old and he restores them to a condition similar to new. Can you imagine that with any EV? No. Best case you can make it look like it is new and then park it and never touch it again.

Does he restore Daewoo as well? I just gave mine away for free 28 years old.

[atpeace]

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yes, correct.

But it doesn't mean that for all batteries that information is available. From what I read and saw the car/battery manufacturers (i.e. Tesla) don't allow outsiders to get that information.

Strange but I'll take your word for it.  Maybe, for better or worse, they want to keep this data safe considering it is by far the most important part of the car.  Assume the capacity  is provided and this percentage would reflect fast charging.  Tesla owners have posted lots of vids about their battery capacity after many years of use and they have this data.   I lack the new battery knowledge to be sure though...

[Bandersnatch]

8 hours ago, connda said:

Let's carpet farmland, lakes, and deforested forests with solar panels.  <laughs>  I wonder how much farmland you need to cover with solar panels to run a 5 GW AI data center?

 

Only someone who has never grown anything in Thailand would say something like that.

 

The one thing that Thailand has too much of is sunshine.

 

My intensive veggies are all grown under shade cloth. 

 

agrivoltaics makes a lot of sense in Thailand 

 

 

Covering lakes is one of your better ideas apparently EGAT agrees with you

 

2.72GW capacity equates to 8TWH/year

 

 

People always overestimate the amount of space needed for solar to power a country. So nobody is going to be cutting down forests for solar.

 

In reality there is already enough roof space and car parks to meet Thailand’s PV needs

 

 

 

[UWEB]

9 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

There are also studies out there that smoking is good for your health...

The Study was done by Dr. Marlboro.

[UWEB]

9 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yes, correct.

But it doesn't mean that for all batteries that information is available. From what I read and saw the car/battery manufacturers (i.e. Tesla) don't allow outsiders to get that information.

You can get independent information's on Battery Health from Organizations like German TUEV or Dekra for all Brands of Cars. That's no Rocket Science. For sure you have similar Services in other Countries.

Edited June 3 by UWEB

[JBChiangRai]

10 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yes, the BMS might do that. But that doesn't mean this information is available to anybody.

And about the range: It seems that is often overoptimistic. Or not?

 

It doesn't matter if the quoted range is optimistic.

 

If the new car range is quoted as 500km and at 10 tears old it's quoting 400km then you know the SoH is approximately 80%.

Edited June 3 by JBChiangRai
correcting missing characters

[connda]

1 hour ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

Only someone who has never grown anything in Thailand would say something like that.

 

The one thing that Thailand has too much of is sunshine.

 

My intensive veggies are all grown under shade cloth. 

 

agrivoltaics makes a lot of sense in Thailand 

 

 

Covering lakes is one of your better ideas apparently EGAT agrees with you

 

2.72GW capacity equates to 8TWH/year

 

 

People always overestimate the amount of space needed for solar to power a country. So nobody is going to be cutting down forests for solar.

 

In reality there is already enough roof space and car parks to meet Thailand’s PV needs

 

 

 

What could possible go wrong with floating solar farms  🤔 Oh right - weather, wind, and then waves.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1777941616562733520

 

 

[OneMoreFarang]

21 minutes ago, UWEB said:

You can get independent information's on Battery Health from Organizations like German TUEV or Dekra for all Brands of Cars. That's no Rocket Science. For sure you have similar Services in other Countries.

How would those organizations be able to know the accurate information i.e. how often a battery was charged and how? If that information is encrypted, and probably copyright protected, they won't be able to get the real information.

TUEV and others can test how a battery performs at the moment when they test it. 

And the regular TUEV inspections in Germany are about safety of cars. A car can be safe and pass the test. That doesn't mean that maybe a week later it won't function anymore.

[atpeace]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

It doesn't matter if the quoted range is optimistic.

 

If the new car range is quoted as 500km and at 10 tears old t's quoting 4km then you know the SoH is approximately 80%.

It's hard for some to wrap their head around if all they have known is lead acid batteries.  The SoH in lead acid batteries is dependent on so many factors that don't really apply to LifePO4 batteries with a functional BMS.  For example, lead acid batteries SoH plumets if you consistently discharge below 50%.  Replacing car batteries is something many do every few years on ICE cars and that mentality is applied to new battery technology in an EV. 

 

The only downside of an EV for most is the risk of damaging the battery which can happen (99% accidents).  This will be hardly an issue in 5-10  years  when there will be a  demand for battery replacement and capitalism kicks in.  I bet in 10 years replacement will cost less then 300k baht.  IMO, new EV buyers are going to have many less reservations in a the near future.

[OneMoreFarang]

20 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

It doesn't matter if the quoted range is optimistic.

 

If the new car range is quoted as 500km and at 10 tears old t's quoting 4km then you know the SoH is approximately 80%.

Sorry, I am not able to follow your math.

And is the approximate maximum capacity compared to new the only important criteria for you?

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, OneMoreFarang said:

How would those organizations be able to know the accurate information i.e. how often a battery was charged and how? If that information is encrypted, and probably copyright protected, they won't be able to get the real information.

TUEV and others can test how a battery performs at the moment when they test it. 

And the regular TUEV inspections in Germany are about safety of cars. A car can be safe and pass the test. That doesn't mean that maybe a week later it won't function anymore.

 

How often the battery was charged, will affect battery degradation and be reflected in the battery's State of Health.  SoH is the important figure it encompasses all the damage done to the battery by knowing exactly how the battery behaves.

 

Any type of car engine can die at any moment, it's not specific to EV's, they only have 1% of the moving parts of an ICE car and so failure is a lot less likely.

[connda]

1 hour ago, Bandersnatch said:

Covering lakes is one of your better ideas apparently EGAT agrees with you

 

2.72GW capacity equates to 8TWH/year

2.72GW will power one AI data center - partially.  The coming AI (and eventually quantum) data centers will suck upwards of 5GW of electricity each. 

 

Again - get real.  Your "solar will save the world" ideologues simple dismiss reality.  You cover large land masses with solar panels and completely discount the ecological damage they themselves cause because as ideologues you refuse to comprehend the obvious.  The same goes of windmill farms especially offshore wind farm - you deliberately shut your minds off to the ecological damage these wind farms do.  You defend killing the planet to "save the planet."

Again.  The new generation of nuclear plant are safer, more resilient, and produce significantly more energy than wind or solar.  And are at a time when there is plenty of natural gas to drive the planet's energy need - until - fusion energy technology reaches commercial maturity in the coming decades.  Then you'll have copious amounts of "green" energy powered by the same dynamics as the Sun.

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Sorry, I am not able to follow your math.

And is the approximate maximum capacity compared to new the only important criteria for you?

 

You're right about my post, there are missing characters.  Maximum capacity is the best possible SoH, the real SoH could be a lot worse as the BMS takes into account many more factors.

 

Going back to would I buy a 10 year old EV, the first check I would do is maximum range when fully charged, if I was happy with that, I would want to meet the seller at a dealer and query the battery SoH.  I could then make a decision on the price.

[OneMoreFarang]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

Any type of car engine can die at any moment, it's not specific to EV's, they only have 1% of the moving parts of an ICE car and so failure is a lot less likely.

Yeah. And don't forget the battery. It is not a moving part. But it can and will fail. It's only a question of when. And if it fails, it is often so expensive that this is considered a write-off - it doesn't make sense to fix the car is such a condition. 

 

All in all, I keep an open mind. In the moment I wouldn't buy an EV, and I see many problems with them.

Maybe in a decade or two the situation is better. Maybe there will be better technologies in the future. We will see.

[atpeace]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

How would those organizations be able to know the accurate information i.e. how often a battery was charged and how? If that information is encrypted, and probably copyright protected, they won't be able to get the real information.

TUEV and others can test how a battery performs at the moment when they test it. 

And the regular TUEV inspections in Germany are about safety of cars. A car can be safe and pass the test. That doesn't mean that maybe a week later it won't function anymore.

It really doesn't matter. If your battery SoH is high. If you left your car in storage and like a fool kept it charged to 100% for six months the battery would be damaged slightly and the SoH would be not as good.  They Definately can be damaged but they can't be damaged and that damage not reflected in the SoH.  Much better than opening the hood of an ice car and trying to verify if the owner took care of it.  Not possible to verify with 100% accuracy the battery but darn close.

[atpeace]

23 minutes ago, connda said:

What could possible go wrong with floating solar farms  🤔 Oh right - weather, wind, and then waves.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1777941616562733520

 

 

Disgusting and seen even worse solar panel waste.  Better than an oil spill?

 

Solar isn't perfect and I have my reservations about the risk of global warming but the cost of using solar  is much lower than coal.  There is no stopping this train! Before it never had momentum but far from the case now.  Cheap energy will be here very soon regardless of the good or bad in regards to the environment. Money talks!