New COVID Sub-variant KP.2 on the Rise in Thailand

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

This is the latest research I've seen on the real-world effectiveness of the current XBB variant COVID vaccines -- not absolute protection by any means, but a lot better than doing nothing.

 

The percentages below refer to the amounts of reduced risk that being vaccinated with the current XBB-variant vaccines (mostly Pfizer, some Moderna) provided against being hospitalized, dying, etc. vs. those who didn't receive them.

 

The research below also divided its overall vaccine effectiveness data into two cohorts -- those vaccinated before late Oct. 2023 when the XBB variant was still dominant, and those vaccinated later when the current, more vaccine evasive JN.1 family of variants emerged.

 

"Data appeared to point to lower effectiveness against infection, hospitalization, and death after the arrival of the JN.1 subvariant, the dominant strain in the U.S. through the end of March of this year.

...

Effectiveness against hospitalization in those vaccinated during the period before JN.1 was 73.7% after week 8 and 59.1% after week 10, while effectiveness against death was 86.2% at week 4 and 72.9% at week 8 during this period.

 

Among those vaccinated after the JN.1 variant became dominant, effectiveness against hospitalization was 60.1% after week 4 and effectiveness against death was 59.8% after week 4, and both steadily decreased over time. [the hospitalization VE number at week 9, the last week tracked, was 40.3%]"

 

MedPage Today

https://archive.ph/G7c1d

 

"We collected individual-level data on the uptake of the three XBB.1.5 vaccines and the incidence of Covid-19 between September 11, 2023, and February 21, 2024, in a cohort of approximately 1.8 million persons by linking records from the Nebraska Electronic Disease Surveillance System and the Nebraska State Immunization Information System (NESIIS).

...

In the cohort, 218,250 persons (11.9%) received XBB.1.5 vaccines, of whom 133,403 (61.1%) received the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine and 84,307 (38.6%) received the Moderna vaccine.

...

Overall, the XBB.1.5 vaccines were effective against omicron subvariants, although less so against JN.1. The effectiveness was greater against hospitalization and death than against infection, and it waned moderately from its peak over time."

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2402779

 

 

[Amethyst]

A trolling post linking to a 2010 video having nothing to do with COVID or COVID vaccines -- predating both by a decade -- has been removed.

 

[rattlesnake]

3 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

The fact I caught covid a second time was entirely my own fault, I accept that. I am in an at risk group and I failed for one year to obtain a vaccine for the latest strains which I knew were active in Thailand. I also failed to mask up in tourist centric locations where the risk of contamination and infection were higher than average. I think I probably overestimated the extent to which my immune system and the combined effects of previous vaccines would afford some degree of protection, I had also become very complacent....mea culpa.

 

There's nothing wrong with the science, the latest vaccine would have afforded me greater protection but i ignored it. If any aspect on my behaviour is worthy of laughter, it's my stupidity at ignoring the science and not following it more precisely and I agree that's very odd. That other people may look at me as stupid for being vaccinated is their prerogative. I try not to tell others what aspects of their behaviour I might think are stupid because it's not productive or helpful to anyone, which is why I avoid debates about religion, politics and the like. I also don't feel strongly enough about the rights and wrongs of this topic to where I will criticise and chastise others for not doing as I do, it's a matter of personal choice for which people shouldn't be criticised or ridiculed, despite there being significant latitude on both sides of the argument to do so. I not some posters behaviours in this thread are geared towards trying to humiliate and embarrass those in the opposite camp, to what end I have no idea but I'd just as soon not be around them, even in debates.

 

Bye.

 

Wise words. I have been on the receiving end of innumerable insults on this forum for being a Trump supporter and an antivaxxer. My number one principle is never to reciprocate.

 

You got the answer to your question, at least as far as I am concerned: I can only laugh at what I see as an incredibly absurd situation (on a general scale and, again, not a personal attack) and I suspect that is the case for several others.

 

It is true, though, that lots of unvaccinated people feel resentful and can only snigger cynically when they encounter what they see as evidence that they were right, or when they hear calls to "forget about it and move on" when they were literally treated as a threat to society (with the very harmful personal consequences it entails) just three years ago…

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Anti-vaxerism and vax hesitancy for COVID had a real and substantial cost in lives lost early on in the pandemic:

300,000 US COVID deaths could have been averted through vaccination, analysis finds

The national average indicates that about 50% of deaths were preventable.

 

May 17, 2022

 

COVID-19 vaccines could have prevented at least 318,000 virus-related deaths between January 2021 and April 2022, a new analysis found.

 

The analysis used real-world data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and The New York Times and was done by researchers from Brown School of Public Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and Microsoft AI for Health.

...

"At a time when many in the U.S. have given up on vaccinations, these numbers are a stark reminder of the effectiveness of vaccines in fighting this pandemic," said Stefanie Friedhoff, associate professor of the practice in health services, policy and practice at the Brown University School of Public Health, and a co-author of the analysis. "We must continue to invest in getting more Americans vaccinated and boosted to save more lives."

 

(more)

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/300000-us-covid-deaths-averted-vaccination-analysis-finds/story?id=84753284

 

 

[dutch boy]

Some states in the United States are suing pfizer, the maker of ... vaccine drugs. Never again for me.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kansas-sues-pfizer-saying-it-misled-the-public-over-covid-19-vaccine-1afcef00

[BigBruv]

8 minutes ago, dutch boy said:

Some states in the United States are suing pfizer, the maker of ... vaccine drugs. Never again for me.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kansas-sues-pfizer-saying-it-misled-the-public-over-covid-19-vaccine-1afcef00

 

Why not?

Did you experience side effects etc?

[Amethyst]

A post citing a made-up, non-recognized psychological condition and several ensuing replies have been removed.

 

[NativeBob]

Does Biotech (Thailand) is finally able to create their own vaccines? 

[johng]

1 hour ago, rattlesnake said:

lots of unvaccinated people feel resentful and can only snigger cynically when they encounter what they see as evidence that they were right, or when they hear calls to "forget about it and move on" when they were literally treated as a threat to society (with the very harmful personal consequences it entails) just three years ago…

 

I will never forget !!!!!!!

[0ffshore360]

My wife, myself,  grandaughter are in day4 <5 of confirmed covid.

At 72 and despite a slight  degree of  copd I am doing as well as my wife and grandaughter  with almost no ongoing symptoms.

This my third  bout.

 First time pre vaccine was like a lingering influenza  but not too debilitating.

Second time post  vaccine was like a short duration mild flu.

This time like a common cold but with  slight fever for two days.

More nasal issues than previous almost like rhinitis.

[BigBruv]

17 minutes ago, 0ffshore360 said:

My wife, myself,  grandaughter are in day4 <5 of confirmed covid.

At 72 and despite a slight  degree of  copd I am doing as well as my wife and grandaughter  with almost no ongoing symptoms.

This my third  bout.

 First time pre vaccine was like a lingering influenza  but not too debilitating.

Second time post  vaccine was like a short duration mild flu.

This time like a common cold but with  slight fever for two days.

More nasal issues than previous almost like rhinitis.

 

 

So no real difference to a cold or flu?

 

(apart from those cheap plastic 'test' things)

 

 

[Mike Lister]

15 minutes ago, BigBruv said:

 

 

So no real difference to a cold or flu?

 

(apart from those cheap plastic 'test' things)

 

 

We all have different experiences.

 

My first time comprised a cough and nothing else, the nurse at a local hospital recognised the type of cough and suggested I get tested, which turned out to be positive for covid. No fever, no nothing, just a cough.

 

The second time was much much worse. Extreme fatigue, temperature to 39 degrees, sore throat, constant headache......48 hours on anti inflammatories saw the worst of it over and done.

[Roo Island]

18 hours ago, stoner said:

 

its a good thing the post you replied to was talking about deaths. 

Many ignore those who survived but struggle for years with long covid. It's not just about deaths.

[Roo Island]

15 hours ago, dinsdale said:

How many do you know of that have died and those who had it bad when was this? 

 

Most have either had vaccines or gotten covid by now. Not as many deaths, but people are still dying. Currently.

[Roo Island]

3 hours ago, rattlesnake said:

 

Wise words. I have been on the receiving end of innumerable insults on this forum for being a Trump supporter and an antivaxxer. My number one principle is never to reciprocate.

 

You got the answer to your question, at least as far as I am concerned: I can only laugh at what I see as an incredibly absurd situation (on a general scale and, again, not a personal attack) and I suspect that is the case for several others.

 

It is true, though, that lots of unvaccinated people feel resentful and can only snigger cynically when they encounter what they see as evidence that they were right, or when they hear calls to "forget about it and move on" when they were literally treated as a threat to society (with the very harmful personal consequences it entails) just three years ago…

 

Antivaxxers should keep their opinions to themselves. They don't help society spreading such nonsense.

[Roo Island]

38 minutes ago, BigBruv said:

Cough 'covid' & flu 'covid'.

 

Apologies for my scepticism but very little if any of the establishment covid narrative makes sense.

Especially if you get your information from social media and not scientific or medical sources.

[0ffshore360]

1 hour ago, BigBruv said:

 

 

So no real difference to a cold or flu?

 

(apart from those cheap plastic 'test' things)

 

 

No real difference.

[Amethyst]

A series of off-topic and bickering posts unrelated to the subject of this thread have been removed.

 

[Mike Lister]

6 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

We all have different experiences.

 

My first time comprised a cough and nothing else, the nurse at a local hospital recognised the type of cough and suggested I get tested, which turned out to be positive for covid. No fever, no nothing, just a cough.

 

The second time was much much worse. Extreme fatigue, temperature to 39 degrees, sore throat, constant headache......48 hours on anti inflammatories saw the worst of it over and done.

As far as I can understand, the differences between the severity of cases numbers one and two was determined by the viral load. On the first occasion I had minimal exposure to the virus. On the second I was trapped inside my car for twelve hours, driving from Rayong to Chiang Mai with a sick wife who was coughing constantly. Her contamination preceded mine by two days, ultimately we both ended up getting quite sick.

[dinsdale]

8 hours ago, Roo Island said:

Most have either had vaccines or gotten covid by now. Not as many deaths, but people are still dying. Currently.

And just how many are dying? As I said the chances of dying from Omicron, whatever variant, is very, very, very slim indeed. If a person is immunocompromised for example then the risk increases but for the majority Omicron in a non-severe viral infection. This is the reality. 

[dinsdale]

An interesting court case against Pfizer in Kansas:

 

PETITION COMES NOW the Plaintiff, State of Kansas, ex rel. Kris W. Kobach, Attorney General, by and through Assistant Attorney General Kaley Schrader, and for its cause of action against Defendant, alleges and states as follows:

NATURE OF THE ACTION

1. Pfizer misled the public that it had a “safe and effective” COVID-19 vaccine.

2. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was safe even though it knew its COVID-19 vaccine was connected to serious adverse events, including myocarditis and pericarditis, failed pregnancies, and deaths. Pfizer concealed this critical safety information from the public. 

3. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was effective even though it knew its COVID19 vaccine waned over time and did not protect against COVID-19 variants. Pfizer concealed this critical effectiveness information from the public.

4. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine would prevent transmission of COVID-19 even though it knew it never studied the effect of its vaccine on transmission of COVID-19.

5. To keep the public from learning the truth, Pfizer worked to censor speech on social media that questioned Pfizer’s claims about its COVID-19 vaccine.

 

It's a very long list of complaints against Pfizer and the outcome will be very interesting to see.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/egvboakldpq/2024-06-15-pfizer-complaint-(002).pdf

 

[Mike Lister]

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

An interesting court case against Pfizer in Kansas:

 

PETITION COMES NOW the Plaintiff, State of Kansas, ex rel. Kris W. Kobach, Attorney General, by and through Assistant Attorney General Kaley Schrader, and for its cause of action against Defendant, alleges and states as follows:

NATURE OF THE ACTION

1. Pfizer misled the public that it had a “safe and effective” COVID-19 vaccine.

2. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was safe even though it knew its COVID-19 vaccine was connected to serious adverse events, including myocarditis and pericarditis, failed pregnancies, and deaths. Pfizer concealed this critical safety information from the public. 

3. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was effective even though it knew its COVID19 vaccine waned over time and did not protect against COVID-19 variants. Pfizer concealed this critical effectiveness information from the public.

4. Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine would prevent transmission of COVID-19 even though it knew it never studied the effect of its vaccine on transmission of COVID-19.

5. To keep the public from learning the truth, Pfizer worked to censor speech on social media that questioned Pfizer’s claims about its COVID-19 vaccine.

 

It's a very long list of complaints against Pfizer and the outcome will be very interesting to see.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/egvboakldpq/2024-06-15-pfizer-complaint-(002).pdf

 

Yes it will be interesting to see how that pans out.

 

But put yourself into the wayback machine for a moment and revisit that point in time when realisation struck that a new virus was rapidly spreading and there was no off the shelf solution, what do you do if you're government? 

 

The first thing you'd do is turn to your drug companies and ask if they can make something for you, they of course would say, we can try. And when after 3 or 6 months they made something but said it wasn't fully tested, because that normally takes 10 years, not 3 or 6 months, what do you do? Do you say no, test it.....cannot. Do you say, roll it out but tell everyone it's not fully tested and say this is at your risk? If you do that, a large percentage of the population wouldn't take up the offer so the needs of the population overall probably haven't been served. And anyway, the general population may be mostly dense but not that much so that they don't realise it can't have been fully tested, because of the short timescales. What you probably do is to roll it out and say something like, we think this is mostly safe for most people. I think that was the basis on which most reasonable people (not ambulance chasers however), were vaccinated, I know it was for me, even though there's no signed agreement in place, it's called, good faith, best efforts. Will 1%, 2%  or even 5% more people die because they took the vaccine? Probably. Is that acceptable? Probably, given the circumstances and nature of the problem.

[cdnvic]

Removed a post that was in poor taste.

[Amethyst]

A series of off-topic diversion posts relating to a topic that already has its own separate thread in the forum have been removed.

 

The subject of this thread is: New COVID Sub-variant KP.2 on the Rise in Thailand. Not COVID vaccine litigation in the U.S.

[bob smith]

Dr. Fear up to his old tricks again I see..

 

bob.

[zakalwe]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

And just how many are dying? As I said the chances of dying from Omicron, whatever variant, is very, very, very slim indeed. If a person is immunocompromised for example then the risk increases but for the majority Omicron in a non-severe viral infection. This is the reality. 

Yep, death rates are "acceptable" now.

[Lorry]

On 6/17/2024 at 8:47 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And that studies repeatedly have shown than being up-to-date on COVID XBB variant vaccinations reduces people's risk of serious COVID illness vs. those who haven't received the latest vaccine.

 

Latest COVID-19 vaccines reduce hospitalization risk by around half

"The latest COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk for hospitalization or visits to an ED or urgent care by around 50%, according to interim data published in MMWR.

...

Overall, VE against COVID-19-associated ME or hospitalization was 51% (95% CI = 47%-54%) in the first 7 to 59 days after receiving an updated vaccine dose and 39% (95% CI = 33%-45%) in the 60 to 119 days after an updated vaccine dose.

 

 

https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20240301/latest-covid19-vaccines-reduce-hospitalization-risk-by-around-half

 

or the following from the U.S. CDC:

 

"Protective tools, like vaccines and treatments, that decrease risk of COVID-19 disease (particularly severe disease) are now widely available. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of symptomatic disease and hospitalization by about 50% compared to people not up to date on vaccination. Over 95% of adults hospitalized in 2023-2024 due to COVID-19 had no record of receiving the latest vaccine."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/background/index.html#:~:text=Over 95% of adults hospitalized,of receiving the latest vaccine

 

 

I find it disconcerting that they don't even bother to publish results after more than 119 days. That's just 4 months. 

 

A well informed friend of mine (over 70, overweight, diabetes) really gets vaccinated every 3 or 6 months - I forgot which number,  I find both numbers very frequent. 

I haven't followed the subject for a while,  so 2 questions if you happen to know the answers:

 

How long does the protection from vaccines against hospitalisation and death last? They used to say (1 or 2 years ago) this would be long-lasting.

 

I have read that there is no reason not to get a vaccine every 6 or even 3 months.  Do you know anything about this?

 

Thx

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

49 minutes ago, Lorry said:

How long does the protection from vaccines against hospitalisation and death last? They used to say (1 or 2 years ago) this would be long-lasting.

 

I have read that there is no reason not to get a vaccine every 6 or even 3 months.  Do you know anything about this?

 

 

There are different opinions about the questions you broach above, but I can offer the following comments:

 

In general, for a person who's at high risk for bad COVID outcomes (elderly, overweight, diabetes), places such as the U.S. and UK recommend that they remain up-to-date with their COVID vaccinations.

 

Right now, that's meant as at least having received one dose of the latest XBB variant COVID vaccine. The UK at present is running twice-a-year public vaccination campaigns (spring and fall) targeted to the elderly and those otherwise at high risk.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-spring-booster-resources/a-guide-to-the-covid-19-spring-booster-2023

 

The U.S. has taken a broader approach, saying that everyone should at least receive one dose of the latest XBB variant vaccine, and a second dose is OK for people at higher risk.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/s-0228-covid.html

 

In both the U.S. and the UK, there will be new versions of the COVID vaccines released later this fall aimed at protecting against the latest JN.1 / KP.2 COVID variants.

 

In general, both countries appear to be heading toward an annual cycle of COVID vaccines being updated for the latest variants, much like flu vaccines are updated each year. And both the U.S. and UK right now are OK with twice-a-year vaccinations for those in the high-risk groups.

 

As for the duration of protection, recent studies continue to show that it wanes after administration, down to pretty low levels by the time people get 6 months or more out from vaccination -- which is what presumably has driven the acceptance of twice-a-year vaccinations for those at high risk.

 

This study info was reported in the New England Journal of Medicine recently on protection duration against COVID infections, hospitalizations and death, and was posted earlier in this thread:

https://aseannow.com/topic/1329918-new-covid-sub-variant-kp2-on-the-rise-in-thailand/?do=findComment&comment=19000206

 

Re your comment about prior discussion about the vaccines having longer-term protections lasting 1-2 years, I saw those references earlier in the pandemic with earlier variants of the COVID virus. But I haven't seen anything substantiating that lately.

 

Also, while I wouldn't advise the following, there was this item in the news not long back:

 

 

[Roo Island]

5 hours ago, zakalwe said:

Yep, death rates are "acceptable" now.

People will die due to covid variants for decades. Just like those who pass due to the flu.

[johng]

9 hours ago, dinsdale said:

As I said the chances of dying from Omicron, whatever variant, is very, very, very slim indeed.

 

The chances of dying where always very slim.

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36341800/

 

The IFRs had a median of 0.034% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.013-0.056%) for the 0-59 years old population, and 0.095% (IQR 0.036-0.119%) for the 0-69 years old. The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.002% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.123% at 50-59 years, and 0.506% at 60-69 years.