Thailand’s EV 3.0 policy faces major oversupply challenges

[JBChiangRai]

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month.

 

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month.

 

Don’t insult my intelligence telling me there is weak demand and oversupply for EV’s.

 

This article is an alarm about too many EV’s being imported resulting in a concern that local production in future years cannot be large enough to fulfill the requirements of the subsidy agreements.

 

This article is all about the VAST SUCCESS of EV uptake in Thailand.

[vinny41]

7 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Thanks for the lesson in oversupply.

 

Now try learning about market share and price wars, they have NOTHING to do with oversupply, except perhaps for the losers.

 

The EV price war here was a reaction to BYD entering the market, and then BYD joined in, as did Suzuki and Mercedes Benz.

 

EV’s are still sold here at vast profit compared to their home market.  The cost of importing them here is negligible.

Byd entered the Thailand market in October 2022 with the Atto 3 there was no price war in 2022 or 2023

Its only this year with stricter requirements on loan approvals resulting in fewer buyers that Brands have been forced to reduce their prices 

the EV price war in China started in October 2022 due to downturn in sales and an increase in oversupply

 

Data from the Department of Land Transport indicate that the EV market has not been particularly strong since the beginning of the year. January recorded the highest number of registrations for the year at 13,321 units, driven partly by a rush to register before the January 31 deadline to qualify for benefits under the EV promotion plan, EV 3.0, which offers a 2% excise tax and a subsidy of up to 150,000 baht.

This rush led to a sharp decline in registrations the following months.

If the cumulative total for the first five months is extrapolated for the entire year, EV sales are expected to be close to 76,000 units, considerably lower than the overall projection of between 100,000 to 130,000 units.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

8 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Byd entered the Thailand market in October 2022 with the Atto 3 there was no price war in 2022 or 2023

Its only this year with stricter requirements on loan approvals resulting in fewer buyers that Brands have been forced to reduce their prices 

the EV price war in China started in October 2022 due to downturn in sales and an increase in oversupply

 

Data from the Department of Land Transport indicate that the EV market has not been particularly strong since the beginning of the year. January recorded the highest number of registrations for the year at 13,321 units, driven partly by a rush to register before the January 31 deadline to qualify for benefits under the EV promotion plan, EV 3.0, which offers a 2% excise tax and a subsidy of up to 150,000 baht.

This rush led to a sharp decline in registrations the following months.

If the cumulative total for the first five months is extrapolated for the entire year, EV sales are expected to be close to 76,000 units, considerably lower than the overall projection of between 100,000 to 130,000 units.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

 

 

 

You are talking about a price war for market share.

 

Exactly the same has happened with ICE cars.

 

They are all chasing market share and whilst all this is happening EV market share increases and ICE market share decreases.

 

2+2 does not make 5.

[Gknrd]

Thailand is the number 1 supporter of China. Publicly and politically. This is just a niggle, laws will be change. Sanctions will be implemented. Such as increased taxes on exported EV vehicles from Thailand.  

Next big expat policy to be implemented is you must own a Thai built EV to obtain your yearly extension.

[Srikcir]

On 7/11/2024 at 7:34 PM, connda said:

then they lobby their governments to impose tariffs on Chinese products.

Are you sure? Import tariffs are paid by the importing capitalists, thereby raising the price the consumer would pay. And so the consumer doesn't purchase the imported EV.

Giving American owned Tesla an advantage that has EV plants in Fremont, California; Sparks, Nevada; Austin, Texas; and Buffalo, New York.

So its EVs are tariff-free in the US.

[vinny41]

7 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month.

 

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month.

 

Don’t insult my intelligence telling me there is weak demand and oversupply for EV’s.

 

This article is an alarm about too many EV’s being imported resulting in a concern that local production in future years cannot be large enough to fulfill the requirements of the subsidy agreements.

 

This article is all about the VAST SUCCESS of EV uptake in Thailand.

EV sales continue to drop driven by tight economic conditions

The Thai automotive industry is facing challenging times, with a continued decline in sales since 2023. From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units, a 23.8% decrease compared to the same period last year.

EVs remain a niche market with a small share. The broader car market is more affected by negative factors such as the sluggish economy and the lack of clear, concrete measures from the government to address issues, which has undermined consumer confidence.

Moreover, the tightening of credit by financial institutions, following the rise in household debt and bad debt, has led many to revise their marketing plans and implement stricter customer screening.

This impact is not only seen in conventional cars but also in EVs.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

[JBChiangRai]

5 hours ago, vinny41 said:

EV sales continue to drop driven by tight economic conditions

The Thai automotive industry is facing challenging times, with a continued decline in sales since 2023. From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units, a 23.8% decrease compared to the same period last year.

EVs remain a niche market with a small share. The broader car market is more affected by negative factors such as the sluggish economy and the lack of clear, concrete measures from the government to address issues, which has undermined consumer confidence.

Moreover, the tightening of credit by financial institutions, following the rise in household debt and bad debt, has led many to revise their marketing plans and implement stricter customer screening.

This impact is not only seen in conventional cars but also in EVs.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

 

All that is true.

 

But the percentage of people choosing EV over ICE continues to rise,

and the percentage of people choosing ICE over EV continues to drop

 

Anyone who thinks people are turning away from EV's needs a lesson in mathematics.

 

[vinny41]

7 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

All that is true.

 

But the percentage of people choosing EV over ICE continues to rise,

and the percentage of people choosing ICE over EV continues to drop

 

Anyone who thinks people are turning away from EV's needs a lesson in mathematics.

 

And that is to be expected ICE was 100% of the market share so it only needs 1 EV to be sold to claim 

the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month.

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month.

as stated by the Nation

From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units

EVs remain a niche market with a small share.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

Number of EV's sold between January and May 23,972 or 9.3% of the 260,365

 

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

And that is to be expected ICE was 100% of the market share so it only needs 1 EV to be sold to claim 

the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month.

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month.

as stated by the Nation

From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units

EVs remain a niche market with a small share.

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

Number of EV's sold between January and May 23,972 or 9.3% of the 260,365

 

 

Except it wasn't one EV that was sold, it's thousands and now more than 1 in 8 cars sold is EV.  That is much bigger than a niche my argumentative anti-EV friend.

 

 

 

 

[vinny41]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Except it wasn't one EV that was sold, it's thousands and now more than 1 in 8 cars sold is EV.  That is much bigger than a niche my argumentative anti-EV friend.

 

 

 

 

It will always remain niche  while  it requires subsides to sell the product

[JBChiangRai]

6 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

It will always remain niche  while  it requires subsides to sell the product

 

Like ICE cars with their fuel.

 

I believe once the subsidies end, you will see no difference in price.  I think the subsidy is just extra profit for the manufacturer.

 

The BYD Seal in Australia is priced very similar to here and it has no subsidy.

[vinny41]

9 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Like ICE cars with their fuel.

 

I believe once the subsidies end, you will see no difference in price.  I think the subsidy is just extra profit for the manufacturer.

 

The BYD Seal in Australia is priced very similar to here and it has no subsidy.

There is a huge difference between the Oil Fuel fund and the subsidy for EV as the Oil fuel fund will be repaid to the Government budget while no repayment for the EV subsidy

Diesel fuel is a vital commodity in the industrial and transport sectors.

The Oil Fuel Fund’s status report as of March 17 revealed that it is 96.72 billion baht in deficit. Of that, 49.33 billion baht is from the oil account and 46.9 billion baht from the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) account.

OFFO has an expectation that the proposed measures will be approved as soon as the price cap measure ends. The fund is due to pay back its first parcel of debt at 30 billion baht in November of this year.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40036725

BYD profit in EU is 10x higher than in China and even with new 30% tariffs, still makes 5,000 USD per vehicle, report says

BYD makes a profit of 15,400 USD on BYD Seal U in Europe, compared to 1,400 USD in China.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/13/byd-profit-in-eu-is-10x-higher-than-in-china-and-even-with-new-30-tariffs-still-makes-5000-usd-per-vehicle-report-says/

[jonclark]

I wonder if raising electricty tarrifs will impact car sales. 

[BKKBike09]

13 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

You are talking about a price war for market share.

 

Exactly the same has happened with ICE cars.

 

They are all chasing market share and whilst all this is happening EV market share increases and ICE market share decreases.

 

2+2 does not make 5.

 

There's never been a price war in Thailand for market share between the various Euro / US / Japanese brands, or at least not that I can recall. Largely because dealerships have their hands tied by the manufacturer on pricing. Not to mention the cartel-like behaviour of the manufacturers, none of whom want to discount.

 

Any ICE discounts have always been very modest in % terms (single figures). I used to benefit from Ford's Friends & Family discount pricing here and it was 10%. I'm quite surprised that Honda and Toyota here haven't been making unfair competition claims about the recent EV price cuts - perhaps they are, behind the scenese.

 

You're right that the EV discounting now is for market share. I think it's going to backfire in the short-term - who wants to buy a new car with the worry that the price will be slashed a month later? Especially - and this applies to both EV / ICE - now that financing is harder, and generally requires a bigger initial cash payment. 

 

I also suspect that much of the EV market low-hanging fruit (urban users, second car users) may now have been picked.

 

Don't get me wrong - I really like an EV for urban daily use, but it's still not as convenient as an ICE for long-distance journeys.

 

 

[Lacessit]

13 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month.

 

February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month.

 

Don’t insult my intelligence telling me there is weak demand and oversupply for EV’s.

 

This article is an alarm about too many EV’s being imported resulting in a concern that local production in future years cannot be large enough to fulfill the requirements of the subsidy agreements.

 

This article is all about the VAST SUCCESS of EV uptake in Thailand.

Thais almost invariably want new, and EV's are the latest fad.

 

They also go into steep debt to get their new toy. Every day, there are vehicle carriers heading back to Bangkok from Chiang Rai with repossessed EV's and ICE's.

 

IMO the bigger issue is what this EV uptake means. There could be an undersupply of charging infrastructure. It reminds me of how people used to queue up for CNG supply.

 

More EV's means more demand for electricity, which means increased prices.

 

Mae Moh in northern Thailand is arguably the dirtiest electricity generator on the planet. It is currently undergoing expansion, presumably to meet increased demand. Exporting pollution from an EV to a fossil fuel power station is simply virtue signalling.

 

While demand for EV's here is increasing, it seems the trend in other countries is towards hybrid vehicles. I believe it's called having a bet each way.

[Lacessit]

19 minutes ago, jonclark said:

I wonder if raising electricty tarrifs will impact car sales. 

Probably not. If you can afford an EV, the electricity is much cheaper than the gasoline it replaces.

 

Those who cannot afford increases in electricity tariffs are effectively subsidizing EV owners.

[JBChiangRai]

48 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

There is a huge difference between the Oil Fuel fund and the subsidy for EV as the Oil fuel fund will be repaid to the Government budget while no repayment for the EV subsidy

Diesel fuel is a vital commodity in the industrial and transport sectors.

The Oil Fuel Fund’s status report as of March 17 revealed that it is 96.72 billion baht in deficit. Of that, 49.33 billion baht is from the oil account and 46.9 billion baht from the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) account.

OFFO has an expectation that the proposed measures will be approved as soon as the price cap measure ends. The fund is due to pay back its first parcel of debt at 30 billion baht in November of this year.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40036725

BYD profit in EU is 10x higher than in China and even with new 30% tariffs, still makes 5,000 USD per vehicle, report says

BYD makes a profit of 15,400 USD on BYD Seal U in Europe, compared to 1,400 USD in China.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/13/byd-profit-in-eu-is-10x-higher-than-in-china-and-even-with-new-30-tariffs-still-makes-5000-usd-per-vehicle-report-says/

 

I am beginning to think you are an LWF (Last Word Freak).

 

42 minutes ago, jonclark said:

I wonder if raising electricty tarrifs will impact car sales. 

 

It's currently 4-5 times cheaper per km for an EV.  I don't see it being raised enormously, houses couldn't afford their own electricity.

 

32 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

There's never been a price war in Thailand for market share between the various Euro / US / Japanese brands, or at least not that I can recall. Largely because dealerships have their hands tied by the manufacturer on pricing. Not to mention the cartel-like behaviour of the manufacturers, none of whom want to discount.

 

Any ICE discounts have always been very modest in % terms (single figures). I used to benefit from Ford's Friends & Family discount pricing here and it was 10%. I'm quite surprised that Honda and Toyota here haven't been making unfair competition claims about the recent EV price cuts - perhaps they are, behind the scenese.

 

You're right that the EV discounting now is for market share. I think it's going to backfire in the short-term - who wants to buy a new car with the worry that the price will be slashed a month later? Especially - and this applies to both EV / ICE - now that financing is harder, and generally requires a bigger initial cash payment. 

 

I also suspect that much of the EV market low-hanging fruit (urban users, second car users) may now have been picked.

 

Don't get me wrong - I really like an EV for urban daily use, but it's still not as convenient as an ICE for long-distance journeys.

 

 

 

You're right, iys a new phenomenon, we've seen it the Suzuki and Mercedes who cut their E300e price by 25%.

 

My friends and I are not finding an EV inconvenient for long distance travel, but then we like a break every 300km for coffee and a sandwich/pee.

[patman30]

similar happening elsewhere
iirc Belgium has same issue with docks full of Chinese EV's
"Some Chinese brand EVs had been sitting in European ports for up to 18 months"
this all stems from Chinese firms taking investments based on production numbers which is common in China
Although similar stories about Porsche from EV drivers in UK
apparently Porsche are over stocked on an older model, with new model already out
so dealers refusing any part ex EV's

might as well post the title of the British EV owners video
of course his videos started out with him telling everyone every 5 mins that he drives one
but then after a while........he  posted this vid 4 months ago
my ELECTRIC CAR is now WORTHLESS EVen the DEALERSHIP doesn’t want it back! EVs are DISPOSABLE JUNK!!

[BKKBike09]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

My friends and I are not finding an EV inconvenient for long distance travel, but then we like a break every 300km for coffee and a sandwich/pee.

 

I think the key point is my comment "not as convenient". I wouldn't say "inconvenient'.

 

Case in point: some friends who live in Bang Saphan just asked us if we felt like going this weekend since neither wife nor me are very busy work-wise at the moment. It's a bit over 400 km. With the CRV that we had before the Atto, we'd just get in and go. With the Atto, we have to factor that it's currently 85% battery, which probably means about 300 km highway speed range. So we'll have to stop and charge en route somewhere in Pranburi. There are plenty of PTT stations on the way that have chargers, so it just needs a little planning. Also timing management if playing it safe by reserving a charge time slot at a specific station. None of which is hugely convenient.

 

Alternatively, we could take the other car (ICE which currently has a quarter tank) and be there in well under four hours (albeit with a few speeding tickets), stopping anywhere to fill the tank. 

 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

39 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

I think the key point is my comment "not as convenient". I wouldn't say "inconvenient'.

 

Case in point: some friends who live in Bang Saphan just asked us if we felt like going this weekend since neither wife nor me are very busy work-wise at the moment. It's a bit over 400 km. With the CRV that we had before the Atto, we'd just get in and go. With the Atto, we have to factor that it's currently 85% battery, which probably means about 300 km highway speed range. So we'll have to stop and charge en route somewhere in Pranburi. There are plenty of PTT stations on the way that have chargers, so it just needs a little planning. Also timing management if playing it safe by reserving a charge time slot at a specific station. None of which is hugely convenient.

 

Alternatively, we could take the other car (ICE which currently has a quarter tank) and be there in well under four hours (albeit with a few speeding tickets), stopping anywhere to fill the tank. 

 

 

 

 

I get your point, I mostly find the inconvenient thing is the last-minute trip when I may only have 50% battery. 

[retarius]

Does this mean they will get cheaper? I like the look of that BYD Atto, now I have been against EVs but if I could get an Atto for 500K I might be in the market for it. 

[MartinBangkok]

On 7/13/2024 at 11:55 AM, JBChiangRai said:

 

I am beginning to think you are an LWF (Last Word Freak).

 

 

It's currently 4-5 times cheaper per km for an EV.  I don't see it being raised enormously, houses couldn't afford their own electricity.

 

 

You're right, iys a new phenomenon, we've seen it the Suzuki and Mercedes who cut their E300e price by 25%.

 

My friends and I are not finding an EV inconvenient for long distance travel, but then we like a break every 300km for coffee and a sandwich/pee.

Give me a break  When you decide to go for a coffee and pee, how long does that take, about 15 minutes? Did the place you stopped at have a charging point? And a charging point that actually worked? And a charging point that was compatible with your car? And how many cars were in front of you, 1, 2, 3?? How many hours waiting would that be? And did it have a charging point where you bank card worked? And if it's yes to all this (I doubt it), how efficient was the charge?) How long did it take? 1 hour or more? 

[JBChiangRai]

9 hours ago, MartinBangkok said:

Give me a break  When you decide to go for a coffee and pee, how long does that take, about 15 minutes? Did the place you stopped at have a charging point? And a charging point that actually worked? And a charging point that was compatible with your car? And how many cars were in front of you, 1, 2, 3?? How many hours waiting would that be? And did it have a charging point where you bank card worked? And if it's yes to all this (I doubt it), how efficient was the charge?) How long did it take? 1 hour or more? 

 

A coffee and a pee takes me 15-20 minutes.

 

On Highway 1 there are fast Charging Stations (CS) every 20-30km, on the 118 between Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai there are 3.

 

I have never encountered a broken CS.

 

I have never encountered a queue for a CS, there are always at least 2 Charging points and often 4.

 

All the CS I have seen have a CCS2 plug, which is the standard here.  There are very few Chademo CS but I don't think anyone sells cars with that type of socket here anymore.

 

My bank card is set up already, I just plug in and scan the QR code on the CS and I've added 300-400km in that 20 minutes.

 

I'm not sure on efficiency, I believe EV's are about 90% efficient allowing for charging and driving.

 

I love waking up in the morning to a full charge, I save about 5 hours every year not visiting petrol stations anymore. 

 

 

[In the jungle]

On 7/12/2024 at 6:23 PM, MartinBangkok said:

The "deleted" cars you get from Europe or USA?

 

Are you kidding? My 3 latest vehicles, BMW 320d M Sport, 520d M Sport and Ford Ranger Raptor 3.0, V6, are immaculate cars. Love them to death. Supreme quality, supreme tech, supreme transmissions, supreme engines and power, subpreme suspensions, supreme safety, supreme road handling and ride.

 

You wanna know the range of the BMW diesels? I'll tell you: In excess of 1400 kilometers. And if you want I can tell you how long it takes (in seconds, and in 20.000 places all over the country) to "charge" those BMWs for another 1400 km. Just ask me. :-0

 

EVs can burn in hell.

 

"EVs can burn in hell."

 

They don't need much encouragement.