Warning Signs of US Recession: A Potential Setback for Kamala Harris

[candide]

6 hours ago, TedG said:

 

It's been a brutal three years of JoeFlatioin. 

And It's been the same all over the planet. How surprising! 😆

https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

Okay so the jobs numbers are coming out in the morning. If inflation has cooled because people don't have jobs or money that will be bad. I am not saying that will be the case but the algos sold off tonight. 

"If inflation has cooled because people don't have jobs or money that will be bad."

It's always the case that some people don't have jobs or money. It's the level of people who don't have jobs or money that counts.

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

And It's been the same all over the planet. How surprising! 😆

https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

So, per your link, global inflation is up 80% as compared to 2020. 

 

Yet US inflation is up over 100%

[candide]

37 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So, per your link, global inflation is up 80% as compared to 2020. 

 

Yet US inflation is up over 100%

Nice try. 2020 is Covid year, that why comparisons are usually made to 2019, the last "normal" year. Compared to 2019, the increase in the U.S. is less than half the global inflation increase.

[Yellowtail]

17 minutes ago, candide said:

Nice try. 2020 is Covid year, that why comparisons are usually made to 2019, the last "normal" year. Compared to 2019, the increase in the U.S. is less than half the global inflation increase.

Show me

[candide]

17 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Show me

That's the source I used for U.S. inflation. The source for global inflation is the one I posted before.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

 

U.S. inflation increase 2024/2019 2.9/2.3 compared to global inflation increase 5.94/3.52

 

[Yellowtail]

12 minutes ago, candide said:

That's the source I used for U.S. inflation. The source for global inflation is the one I posted before.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

 

U.S. inflation increase 2024/2019 2.9/2.3 compared to global inflation increase 5.94/3.52

 

CPI is used in your link, which does not include food and energy. 

 

Do you know if food and energy was excluded in the Statista link?

 

The CI US link is clear, the Statista link does not seem to say.

 

 

 

 

Chart: Inflation Woes Abound in Developed Nations | Statista

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

CPI is used in your link, which does not include food and energy. 

 

Do you know if food and energy was excluded in the Statista link?

 

The CI US link is clear, the Statista link does not seem to say.

 

 

 

 

Chart: Inflation Woes Abound in Developed Nations | Statista

 

There is no such exclusion from CPI. You are confusing with core inflation index.

[Yellowtail]

17 minutes ago, candide said:

There is no such exclusion from CPI. You are confusing with core inflation index.

You are correct, looks like core is 3.2 vs the 2.9 on all items, my bad. 

[TedG]

4 hours ago, candide said:

And It's been the same all over the planet. How surprising! 😆

https://www.statista.com/statistics/256598/global-inflation-rate-compared-to-previous-year/

 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/joe-biden-is-more-responsible-for-high-inflation-than-for-abundant-jobs

 

 

Joe Biden is more responsible for high inflation than for abundant jobs

The main effect of the president’s economic policies has been to boost prices

 

 

[TedG]

3 hours ago, candide said:

Nice try. 2020 is Covid year, that why comparisons are usually made to 2019, the last "normal" year. Compared to 2019, the increase in the U.S. is less than half the global inflation increase.

 

 

[TedG]

2 hours ago, candide said:

That's the source I used for U.S. inflation. The source for global inflation is the one I posted before.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

 

U.S. inflation increase 2024/2019 2.9/2.3 compared to global inflation increase 5.94/3.52

 

Using the CPI-W for the USA

 

Jan 2019 245.133

Jun 2024 308.054 

 

308.054 - 245.133 = 62.921.            62.921/245.133 = 25.67%

 

Inflation is cumulative.  

[TedG]

3 hours ago, candide said:

Nice try. 2020 is Covid year, that why comparisons are usually made to 2019, the last "normal" year. Compared to 2019, the increase in the U.S. is less than half the global inflation increase.

You should stop making up your own narrative to support your politics. 

[candide]

10 minutes ago, TedG said:

 

 

So a few % more inflation than the eurozone over several years, for 140% more growth than the eurozone. Not a bad performance.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

[TedG]

On 8/12/2024 at 5:59 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO rich people love the stock market as it allows them to transfer money from the sheeple to themselves.

How does this work. 

[TedG]

1 minute ago, candide said:

So a few % more inflation than the eurozone over several years, for 140% more growth than the eurozone. Not a bad performance.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

What does a GDP graph have to do with inflation?  

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

So a few % more inflation than the eurozone over several years, for 140% more growth than the eurozone. Not a bad performance.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

How does GDP growth help the poor and middle class that are suffering from high inflation? 

[TedG]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

Really? Is he responsible for the high inflation that afflicted most of the world also? Reasonable people would understand to look elsewhere. Obviously supply chain disruption was a huge Factor.

Biden stimulus increased inflation by 4% in the USA.  

 

Mr Biden’s stimulus did, however, put a rocket under inflation. In April “core” consumer prices, which exclude energy and food, were 13.4% higher than when he came to office. They have risen more than in other g7 countries, and their acceleration coincided with the introduction of Mr Biden’s stimulus. Research suggests that, even by September 2022, the largesse was pushing up core inflation by about four percentage points.

 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/11/joe-biden-is-more-responsible-for-high-inflation-than-for-abundant-jobs

[candide]

8 minutes ago, TedG said:

You should stop making up your own narrative to support your politics. 

Not making up anything. 2020 is not a normal year and no one uses it as a comparison. You are showing your ignorance again.

[candide]

8 minutes ago, TedG said:

What does a GDP graph have to do with inflation?  

It may be worth having a bit more inflation in order to get exceedingly more growth.

[candide]

8 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

How does GDP growth help the poor and middle class that are suffering from high inflation? 

Jobs? 

[TedG]

Just now, candide said:

Not making up anything. 2020 is not a normal year and no one uses it as a comparison. You are showing your ignorance again.

 

I just showed you the cumulative inflation using the CPI-W  from Jan 2019 to Jun 2024.  A person who does not understand that inflation is cumulative should not call someone ignorant. 

[TedG]

1 minute ago, candide said:

It may be worth having a bit more inflation in order to get exceedingly more growth.

Who is benefiting from GDP growth vs who is suffering from inflation? 

[TedG]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

Jobs? 

 

What percentage of the GDP growth was driven by government spending? 

[candide]

15 minutes ago, TedG said:

Using the CPI-W for the USA

 

Jan 2019 245.133

Jun 2024 308.054 

 

308.054 - 245.133 = 62.921.            62.921/245.133 = 25.67%

 

Inflation is cumulative.  

1. Why choose 1 January 2019? Biden was not President in 2019. You must choose December 2019

2. How does this increase compare with world inflation increase? ( that was my point)

[candide]

Just now, TedG said:

 

What percentage of the GDP growth was driven by government spending? 

Tell us

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

Jobs? 

How does that help them? 

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

Tell us

Well, given (T think) about a third of the GDP is government spending it is not insignificant. 

[TedG]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

1. Why choose 1 January 2019? Biden was not President in 2019. You must choose December 2019

2. How does this increase compare with world inflation increase? ( that was my point)

Here is the a link to the CPI-W table. 

 

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/cpiw.html

 

You can choose any endpoint you want.  If you go from Jan 2021 to Jun 2024 it’s about 20.7%. 

[candide]

3 minutes ago, TedG said:

Who is benefiting from GDP growth vs who is suffering from inflation? 

The whole country benefits from GDP growth. That's why all governments try to increase it.

People suffer from inflation everywhere in the world, ex in the graph you posted, the EU only had a few % less inflation