The Urgent Need for EU Expansion: A Strategic Imperative for Survival

[Social Media]

 

The European Union stands at a critical juncture: it must expand to survive. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed EU enlargement from a sidelined issue to an urgent strategic priority. For years, EU expansion has been stagnant, with Croatia being the last country to join over a decade ago. However, recent geopolitical shifts have breathed new life into the enlargement debate. Speaking at a forum in Slovenia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that Europe’s security hinges on the EU expanding its membership. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama echoed this sentiment, noting that thanks to Vladimir Putin, EU enlargement is once again on the agenda.

 

While there is renewed momentum, admitting new members is not guaranteed. Two decades ago, six Western Balkan nations—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo—were promised a path to EU membership, yet progress has been slow. Unlike Eastern European countries, the Western Balkans do not depend on the EU for security guarantees, as NATO plays a significant role in the region. Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia are NATO members, and Bosnia and Kosovo benefit from a substantial NATO presence. In contrast, Ukraine, Moldova, and the Caucasus, lacking NATO’s protection, see EU membership as a critical security alternative.

 

The urgency of Ukraine’s EU membership bid has sparked concerns among Western Balkan countries about being left behind. Serbia, with its close ties to Moscow and aversion to NATO, faces additional hurdles in its EU accession process, particularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite these challenges, the renewed focus on enlargement has provided fresh opportunities for Balkan countries aspiring to join the EU. Without the invasion of Ukraine, Albania and North Macedonia would likely still be stuck in stalled negotiations, and Bosnia and Herzegovina might never have been recognized as an EU candidate. Furthermore, the EU’s new €6 billion growth plan for the Western Balkans, which ties European investments to necessary reforms, could help the region achieve economic convergence with the EU, offering financial support comparable to what full EU members receive under the cohesion fund.

 

The integration of the Western Balkans into the EU is no longer just a distant dream; it is taking shape through initiatives like the inclusion of these countries in the European single Euro payments area. While skepticism about the EU’s intentions persists, there is a growing sense of optimism in the region. During a recent visit to Tirana, discussions revealed a shift beyond the usual grievances about Brussels’ perceived unfairness.

 

However, much more needs to be done. The next EU Commissioner for Enlargement should elevate the ambitions of gradual integration, exploring possibilities like inclusion in the Schengen area. Upcoming negotiations over the EU’s seven-year budget, covering 2028 to 2034, should account for the financial implications of welcoming new members.

 

Crucially, the EU must eliminate the toxic influence of member states exploiting enlargement for their national interests. Historically, existing members have hijacked the process, from Greece and Cyprus blocking Turkey to Hungary obstructing Ukraine. These political maneuvers have eroded the credibility of the EU’s enlargement policy by constantly shifting the goalposts. The process should revert to treating intermediary steps as technical matters managed by the Commission, rather than allowing member states to block progress at every stage.

 

A first mover is needed to break this deadlock and build momentum. Germany and Slovenia have already proposed ways to streamline the process, and other supportive nations—Austria, Croatia, Italy, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic—should rally behind them. Countries with a vested interest in Ukraine and Moldova’s EU membership, like Poland and the Baltic states, alongside recent converts like France, must also lend their voices. While opposition from Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, and Cyprus may persist, European integration history shows that once a critical mass forms, resistance becomes increasingly difficult.

 

If proponents of an expanded EU truly believe in the project, they must back their words with decisive action. The future of the EU depends on embracing new members, and now is the time to commit to this vital expansion.

 

Credit: The Guardian 2024-09-12

 

 

 

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[Gweiloman]

The EU should invite India to join with its 1.4 billion citizens. That would give it {the EU) a much needed boost.

[JonnyF]

6 hours ago, Social Media said:

Two decades ago, six Western Balkan nations—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo

 

So they lose Britain and gain this lot? 😃

 

The EU is on a path to destruction. It will be a long, drawn out, messy break up.

 

Thank god we left when we did. It's about the only thing Britain has got right in the last 30 years. 

[koolkarl]

And the euro is doomed to failure after they throw the kitchen sink at it.  It is a doomed concept from day 1. And having Cristine Legarde, a convicted felon, head of the ECB speeds up the process.

[AndreasHG]

10 hours ago, Social Media said:

Crucially, the EU must eliminate the toxic influence of member states exploiting enlargement for their national interests. Historically, existing members have hijacked the process, from Greece and Cyprus blocking Turkey to Hungary obstructing Ukraine. These political maneuvers have eroded the credibility of the EU’s enlargement policy by constantly shifting the goalposts.

A first step in this direction has been achieved by ousting Britain from the Union.

Now it is essential to get rid also of the national Veto system to isolate, and eventually expel, those countries which only joined to exploit the EU for self-interest. 

 

[RayC]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

So they lose Britain and gain this lot? 😃

 

The EU is on a path to destruction. It will be a long, drawn out, messy break up.

 

Thank god we left when we did. It's about the only thing Britain has got right in the last 30 years. 

 

I doubt that many SMEs in the UK who export to the EU share your view about Brexit. Still, there are always winners and losers, and so many others have gained so much from our decision to leave ... Oh, wait ...

 

Btw: I thought that the EU was meant to have fallen apart already given that 'they need us more than we need them'?

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, AndreasHG said:

A first step in this direction has been achieved by ousting Britain from the Union.

Now it is essential to get rid also of the national Veto system to isolate, and eventually expel, those countries which only joined to exploit the EU for self-interest. 

 

 

That has to be close to the most hilarious comment that  I've ever read on here.

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

So they lose Britain and gain this lot? 😃

 

The EU is on a path to destruction. It will be a long, drawn out, messy break up.

 

Thank god we left when we did. It's about the only thing Britain has got right in the last 30 years. 

 

The new German border rules might speed this up - directly challenging the Schengen/freedom of movement pillar.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-put-temporary-controls-all-land-borders-source-says-2024-09-09/

 

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

I doubt that many SMEs in the UK who export to the EU share your view about Brexit. Still, there are always winners and losers, and so many others have gained so much from our decision to leave ... Oh, wait ...

 

Btw: I thought that the EU was meant to have fallen apart already given that 'they need us more than we need them'?

 

All good things come to those that wait.

 

It looks like the EU is quite capable of self-destructing without the UK anyway now.

 

Thanks Mutti!

[RayC]

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

The EU should invite India to join with its 1.4 billion citizens. That would give it {the EU) a much needed boost.

 

I'm unsure whether you are being flippant, but taking your comment at face value, imo the suggestion has merit although the chances of it happening are very slim.

 

As you say, India is a huge market with great potential. There would be many issues to work through; for example, free movement would have its' disadvantages and well as its' advantages but the potential rewards of an Indian accession to the EU are enormous.

[RayC]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

 

All good things come to those that wait.

 

It looks like the EU is quite capable of self-destructing without the UK anyway now.

 

Thanks Mutti!

 

Ah yes ... the promised sunny uplands. Maybe they will come into view immediately after the next total solar eclipse occurs in the UK?

 

However, given that I have a positive nature, I might be overly optimistic about the delivery date.

[candide]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

So they lose Britain and gain this lot? 😃

 

The EU is on a path to destruction. It will be a long, drawn out, messy break up.

 

Thank god we left when we did. It's about the only thing Britain has got right in the last 30 years. 

Yet, according to your own Brexiteer source, the UK economy was doing much better before the referendum:

- UK growth exceeded Germany growth by 2.2% between 2013 and the 2016 referendum,

- it exceeded Germany growth by only 0.5% between the 2016 referendum and 2023, despite the fact that Germany became the sick man of Europe because of the war in Ukraine.

https://facts4eu.org/news/2023_may_uk_growth_beats_no1_eu_state#

[JonnyF]

21 minutes ago, RayC said:

Btw: I thought that the EU was meant to have fallen apart already given that 'they need us more than we need them'?

 

I don't believe anyone predicted that would happen within 5 years of Brexit. Certainly not me. 

 

The decline and eventual breakup has started, but it will be gradual, as Chinese manufacturing adversely affects the 'economic powerhouse' Germany that props it up financially. Add to that the growing discontent from many countries within it that will elect right wing governments that oppose the leftist, unelected (by the people of Europe) EU leaders, causing serious disputes between member states.  

 

https://en.vijesti.me/news-b/auto/723536/what-Volkswagen's-problems-say-about-the-state-of-the-German-economy

 

Brexit will not cause the breakup of the EU, but it was one of many factors that started the ball rolling. 

 

[JonnyF]

8 minutes ago, RayC said:

Ah yes ... the promised sunny uplands. Maybe they will come into view immediately after the next total solar eclipse occurs in the UK?

 

The solar eclipse has already occurred. It's called Keir Starmer and it will last around 4 years, if he is lucky. 

[RayC]

What this opinion piece fails to do is explain either (1) why the EU's survival is dependent upon its' enlargement or, (2) how the security of the existing EU member states will be enhanced by enlargement?

 

Imo a case can be made that the security of existing members will be compromised by admitting the likes of Albania and Serbia.

 

Throw in the likely large financial costs to existing members in admitting some of the Balkan countries and the case for enlargement - at least, at this point in time - doesn't sound very convincing to me.

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, RayC said:

Imo a case can be made that the security of existing members will be compromised by admitting the likes of Albania and Serbia.

 

Surely not. 

 

All those doctors, brain surgeons and nurses flooding over the border to culturally enrich the existing states will cause no problems at all.  

[RayC]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Surely not. 

 

All those doctors, brain surgeons and nurses flooding over the border to culturally enrich the existing states will cause no problems at all.  

 

You're right of course: Such people will almost certainly benefit the existing EU member states.

 

I don't know why I was being so negative previously, so many thanks for helping me view enlargement in a more positive light.

[RayC]

19 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

The solar eclipse has already occurred. It's called Keir Starmer and it will last around 4 years, if he is lucky. 

 

More wishful thinking, methinks.

 

I wonder what are the odds for a double of 1) Starmer not lasting 4 years as PM and 2) the sunny uplands of Brexit being viewed within the next 4 years? 

 

Upwards of 10,000-1 would be my estimate. 

[JonnyF]

24 minutes ago, RayC said:

many thanks for helping me view enlargement in a more positive light.

 

I'm sure it's not the first time. 

[RayC]

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

 

I'm sure it's not the first time. 

 

You've become a EUrophile. I'm delighted.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, RayC said:

 

Ah yes ... the promised sunny uplands. Maybe they will come into view well immediately after the next total solar eclipse occurs in the UK?

 

However, given that I have a positive nature, I might be overly optimistic about the delivery date.

,

These fabled sunny uplands exist in your own head, not mine. 

 

But the EU has failed to lead and has actually weakened its members, 

 

The UK is struggling now, with or without the EU. Too much damage already.

[retarius]

This is like a chain of restaurants about to go bust.....yes let's open more and more stores. Soon you look like Macy's and go bust. The last thing the EU needs is more members with vetoes. 

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, Social Media said:

The future of the EU depends on embracing new members, and now is the time to commit to this vital expansion.

Just when I thought the insanity was over, they come out with more.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, Social Media said:

Credit: The Guardian 2024-09-12

Seems the Guardian wants more readers buying their rag.

[RayC]

21 hours ago, nauseus said:

,

These fabled sunny uplands exist in your own head, not mine. 

 

But the EU has failed to lead and has actually weakened its members, 

 

The UK is struggling now, with or without the EU. Too much damage already.

 

You are confusing me with someone else. I certainly don't see many sunny uplands, either in my dreams or in reality.

 

Has the EU under Von der Leyen failed to lead? Many commentators argue the opposite i.e. that she has been too assertive and headstrong. She does - or should - take her direction from the Council (Heads of State).

 

No nation is free of problems and the UK is no different. From diplomatic, economic and political standpoints, I strongly believe that the UK was better off as an EU member. However, imo the biggest downside of Brexit - or more exactly the referendum - was that it brought the divisions in the country into the open. Some might argue that is no bad thing: best to be open and honest, etc. Imo the empirical evidence suggests otherwise.

[RayC]

23 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

I don't believe anyone predicted that would happen within 5 years of Brexit. Certainly not me. 

 

The decline and eventual breakup has started, but it will be gradual, as Chinese manufacturing adversely affects the 'economic powerhouse' Germany that props it up financially. Add to that the growing discontent from many countries within it that will elect right wing governments that oppose the leftist, unelected (by the people of Europe) EU leaders, causing serious disputes between member states.  

 

https://en.vijesti.me/news-b/auto/723536/what-Volkswagen's-problems-say-about-the-state-of-the-German-economy

 

Brexit will not cause the breakup of the EU, but it was one of many factors that started the ball rolling. 

 

 

Your link provides an interesting and balanced article. Germany certainly appears to have its fair share of problems and a weak Germany cannot be good for the EU.

 

However, does this foretell the break-up of the EU? Imo no. Firstly, while it is undeniable that right-wing, anti-EU parties are gaining ground, their polling numbers are still relatively small (<40%). Secondly, a number of the more prominent right-wing parties e.g. 'Friends of Italy' and 'National Rally' in France no longer call for their respective countries to leave the EU. 

 

Brexit did damage, both to the UK and the EU, but will it be seen as the catalyst for the latter's eventual demise? Time will tell but imo no, as I hope and believe that the EU can survive.

[gearbox]

On 9/12/2024 at 2:57 PM, RayC said:

 

I'm unsure whether you are being flippant, but taking your comment at face value, imo the suggestion has merit although the chances of it happening are very slim.

 

As you say, India is a huge market with great potential. There would be many issues to work through; for example, free movement would have its' disadvantages and well as its' advantages but the potential rewards of an Indian accession to the EU are enormous.

Seems rewards are enormous, maybe you should urge your home country to act faster and grab this deal before EU lands it.

[gearbox]

On 9/12/2024 at 2:40 PM, AndreasHG said:

A first step in this direction has been achieved by ousting Britain from the Union.

Now it is essential to get rid also of the national Veto system to isolate, and eventually expel, those countries which only joined to exploit the EU for self-interest. 

 

All countries joined EU for self interest.

[RayC]

23 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Seems rewards are enormous, maybe you should urge your home country to act faster and grab this deal before EU lands it.

 

I have no influence when it comes to UK trade policy.

 

However, I was assured by Boris Johnson and his Brexit buddies that the world (outside of the EU) would be bending over backwards to sign trade deals and commit to deeper, lasting relationships with the UK. Unfortunately, to quote Diana Ross, "I'm still waiting,".

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, RayC said:

 

You are confusing me with someone else. I certainly don't see many sunny uplands, either in my dreams or in reality.

 

Has the EU under Von der Leyen failed to lead? Many commentators argue the opposite i.e. that she has been too assertive and headstrong. She does - or should - take her direction from the Council (Heads of State).

 

No nation is free of problems and the UK is no different. From diplomatic, economic and political standpoints, I strongly believe that the UK was better off as an EU member. However, imo the biggest downside of Brexit - or more exactly the referendum - was that it brought the divisions in the country into the open. Some might argue that is no bad thing: best to be open and honest, etc. Imo the empirical evidence suggests otherwise.

 

Well you first mentioned these elusive uplands just a few posts ago. Being assertive and headstrong does not necessarily result in good leadership. 

 

Divisions in the UK have steadily grown, especially over the last 30 years. Some of these divisions are partly due to the EU, its "pillars" and politics but many grew after a string of dishonest governments. 

 

Blaming Brexit for causing these divisions is just riduculous. Brexit was a result of existing divisions. 

 

Not being open and honest a good thing? No. That just creates divisions.