Oz $ losing so much value to the Baht

[Pattaya57]

6 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

 

Australia gets a mention. 

Love it 😀

[KhunLA]

47 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Difficult to know, exactly, how China's economy is at any one point in time, because they fudge the books. 

Just like everyone else  ... 

 

... unless some people are dump enough to believe there was no inflation in the USA a few years since 2000.

 

-0- inflation = 0 COLA adjustment on USA Social Security (retirement payments), for 2009, 2010 & 2015  

[gearbox]

On 12/22/2024 at 2:08 PM, jas007 said:

Just a guess, but if China is slowing down, doesn't that affect the Australian mining industry?  Less demand for Australian dollars, perhaps? 

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/iron-ores-2025-crash-could-rip-tens-of-billions-out-of-aussie-economy-disastrous-190022231.html

 

No positives in the near future. xe.com shows me 21.26 to thb. I guess it may go to the 2020 levels around 20 to thb.

[DrJack54]

Some posts discussing a member removed. 

[Pattaya57]

Shocking A$ exchange rate in the street today...down in the 20"s 😞

 

[wavodavo]

On 12/22/2024 at 1:27 AM, KhunHeineken said:

Yet, Australia is looking at the very real possibility of having to import gas, despite having huge gas resources, and being a major exporter of gas.

 

What a disgrace. 

You are right beer man.With the exeption of the Western Australian Government who quarantines a quota of gas for local supply only and not for export all the other states export of every last kiloljoule of gas for the royalties.New South Wales and Victoria has even banned gas exploration so suddeny they have realised that they are running short and although they have shatloads in the ground are starting to panic.That is stupidity and greed .

[harryviking]

There are many currencies that suffers these days. Among them my NOK! I guess the dollar is to blame. It is just to strong! I am hoping for a sudden demise of that currency as soon as Trump start crashing the US economy!! 

[alex8912]

On 12/22/2024 at 1:41 PM, Pattaya57 said:

I'm guessing those threads are in the 'Political soapbox' which is not an American forum, however you have come into an Australian forum in a thread about Aus$ to complain about Australians talking politics in that neutral forum? Are you happy you derailed an Aussie thread with off topic political rubbish?

 

This is a good example of why I'm starting to really hate Americans since I retired. In Pattaya you can't go to any bar without at least one American trying to be the loudest person in the bar with their brainwashed "everyone look at me, I'm American from the greatest country in the World" bullcrap

If I were you I'd spend a lot less of my retirement in bars in Pattaya trying to find loud Americans. 

[CapraIbex]

On 12/25/2024 at 6:43 PM, gearbox said:

No positives in the near future.

Analysts' Forecasts:

 

Commonwealth Bank forecasts the AUD/USD to fall to 0.62 by mid-2025 and to 0.61 by September.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/aud/21192-australian-dollar-to-fall-materially-further-in-2025

 

Westpac predicts the AUD will be worth 0.69 USD by December 2024, rising to 0.70 USD in Q1 2025.
https://arielle.com.au/australian-dollar-forecast/

 

NAB anticipates the AUD to climb to 0.72 USD by mid-2025.
https://stocksdownunder.com/article/aud-usd-forecasts/

[KhunLA]

If in TH, or planning visiting, retiring in TH, then the uncommon common sense would be, to plan you finance around the negative, worst exchange rate.   Enjoy the highs, but don't expect them to last.

 

Know the lowest, base finances on that, and you never be surprised or disappointed.  Look long term, past rates, not this week, month, 6 months

 

YTD ... lost shy of 8%

 

5 years (pre covid) ... actually up a bit, even though a very short lived 18.79, and almost exactly where it is today.

 

Another low, Oct 2008

 

Seems the average low of AUD, during the  past 5-10-15+ year span is 21+/-, So plan your budget on that, not the highs of 27-28-29.  You'll have less disappointments & stress.

 

As a Yank, the past 15 years, it's been 30-35/$1, so my brain thinks 33+/-.   Rarely dips below 30, or about 35.  As long as it stays 30+, no worries, as I still make the 65k a month for retirement visa.  

 

When more that the average high, it's all smiles, but no stress when knocking on 30, knowing it rarely dips below, and always short lived, when it does.

 

[digger70]

On 9/17/2024 at 7:42 AM, steven100 said:

because the AUD is now 67.45 cents to the USD .... hence the reason for the drop to the Baht. 

 

but it may start to recover some after tomorrow when the US cut .25 basis points off the interest rate. 

 

 

Now 21.78  to the THB ......    very bad price.   

 

 

 

 

I think only wishing /Hoping that that will happen.

Today 21.6.    At investing.com   Start Getting sad for us Aussies

[KhunHeineken]

The exchange rate is only going to get worse. 

 

http://australiandebtclock.com.au

 

 

[Celsius]

I thought Canadian dollar sucked until I had a look at Aussie.

 

19 baht in January 

 

 

[KhunHeineken]

On 12/27/2024 at 11:16 PM, wavodavo said:

You are right beer man.With the exeption of the Western Australian Government who quarantines a quota of gas for local supply only and not for export all the other states export of every last kiloljoule of gas for the royalties.New South Wales and Victoria has even banned gas exploration so suddeny they have realised that they are running short and although they have shatloads in the ground are starting to panic.That is stupidity and greed .

We will soon be buying back our own gas from the countries we have exported it to, but at a higher price. 

 

It would be funny, if it wasn't so serious for the Aussie consumer.

[bkk6060]

Sad a country relies so much on China.  And, what else iron ore?

[KhunHeineken]

45 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Sad a country relies so much on China.  And, what else iron ore?

So true, but Australia also has another BIG problem.  The "hand up" has turned into a "hand out" over the years, with many now on welfare as a lifestyle choice. 

 

The welfare bill got bigger from today with more hand outs. 

 

https://www.9news.com.au/national/january-1-2025-changes-australia-centrelink-criminal-underpayment-passport-fees/8e58678a-4455-43c9-9ccc-6c2033d19d97

 

Problem is, the people on welfare get to vote, and now outnumber the workers, so it will just keep going in the same direction with Australia's welfare bill getting bigger and bigger.

 

Thus, you can expect the AUD to continue to have downward pressure. 

 

It's difficult for a country to increase productivity when their government gives people money to stay home and play the X-Box. 

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Sad a country relies so much on China.  And, what else iron ore?

We don't rely on China, they just buy our stuff, but we can sell to anyone who pays. Unfortunately the so called "service" economies don't need iron ore or steel.

 

Australia is a quasi communist country, where the low class workers can get paid better than engineers or PhDs in molecular biology. The other countries where the proletariat ruled were the USSR and the former Eastern bloc, we all know how it ended. Welfare abound, you can get old age pension without working a single day.

 

The job of the governments is to increase productivity and make the pie bigger, our government instead brings a few hundred thousand subjects from the subcontinent and puts them on the table to eat from the same size pie, hence the negative GDP growth per person in the last 2 years. The population increases faster than the GDP.

[KhunHeineken]

13 minutes ago, gearbox said:

We don't rely on China, they just buy our stuff,

I think that's the member's point.  We rely on China to buy our "stuff."  Could you imagine if they didn't?

 

We have seen what happens in Australia when China's economy slows.  Imagine if they found another seller tomorrow, or just stopped buying to beat us down on price, which is hat happened in the GFC.  Australia practically begged China to buy our "stuff."

[gearbox]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-05/aussie-bears-see-drop-to-60-cents-as-trump-readies-china-tariffs

 

However the Aussie movements are notoriously hard to predict, a number of "experts" were wrong last year.

[Woke to Sounds of Horking]

Yeah. Suxx to have Aussie pesos. The AUD is so crappy even the Kanadian dollar buys more!

[black tabby12345]

I would say it is mostly for 3 reasons behind.  They are:

 

1-Inflation Rate.

 

2-Amount of Foreign Debt.

 

3-Numbers of Foreign Tourists.

 

Thai inflation rate  was 0.54% in 2024.

While 3.32% in Australia in the same year.

 

Inflation means the devaluation of money.

That is one of the major factors that affects  currency strength.

 

inflation rate of australia 2024 - Google Search

 

inflation rate of thailand 2024 - Google Search

 

 

FX rate is also impacted by the amount of Foreign(external) of each country.

 

Scale of External Debt in Australia is far greater than Thailand in 2024.

 

Thailand: $185494.32 million.

Australia: $1950.5 billion

 

thailand foreign debt 2024 - Google Search

 

australian foreign debt 2024 - Google Search

 

More foreign debt means greater amount of money can be drained when the country of its origin is short of cash.

In other words, that debtor's currency is sold(exchange rate goes down) 

when it takes place.

 

Numbers of foreign tourists comparison around 2023-2024

 

Thailand: 28.15 million.

Australia: 7.5 million

 

numbers of foreign tourist to thailand and australia - Google Search

 

More arrivals of foreign visitors mean the currency of the destination country is Bought in greater amount.

Travellers convert their money into local currency to buy goods and services while they are in foreign land.

 

 

 

 

 

[KhunHeineken]

On 1/6/2025 at 2:11 AM, black tabby12345 said:

2-Amount of Foreign Debt.

Spinning fast as every day passes. 

 

http://australiandebtclock.com.au

 

How can a country with such an abundance be so badly mismanaged and in so much debt? 

[advancebooking]

On 9/18/2024 at 3:04 PM, KhunHeineken said:

The US took the position to raise interest rates big, and raise them quickly. Harsh, but short term pain.  This is why they are now in a position to lower their rate.

 

Australia couldn't do this, otherwise the Australian Ponzi housing market scheme would have collapsed. Australia had to raise rates smaller, and slower, so it was .25%, then .25%, then .25% etc.  The rates were behind the inflation curve. 

 

The RBA needed to give people time to refinance, get a second job, apply for a bigger credit card, sell a car etc etc, or risk foreclosures and homelessness of epic proportions across the country.    

 

Australia is still around 3.8% inflation.  It's above the 2% to 3% rate acceptable to the RBA. 

 

The RBA only has interest rates as a trigger to pull.  The government could have done many things to help reign inflation in when it was on the boil, but they were too spineless. 

 

Instead, they kept the sole responsibility with the RBA to use the blunt hammer of interest rates which does not spread the pain evenly across all Australians.  This also allowed them to shift blame.  

 

Weak governance when leadership was needed. 

I agree with all of your comments, esp the ponzi comment.  The oz govt  treats its precious housing market as the top priority even though its in a bubble. Should have raised rates faster and let the market correct. Give first home buyers a chance. Australians are basically obsessed with their housing market. 

[KhunHeineken]

28 minutes ago, advancebooking said:

I agree with all of your comments, esp the ponzi comment.  The oz govt  treats its precious housing market as the top priority even though its in a bubble. Should have raised rates faster and let the market correct. Give first home buyers a chance. Australians are basically obsessed with their housing market. 

Australia can't afford for the housing bubble to burst.  The government has to keep pouring fuel on that fire. 

 

Remember what happened in America in 2008, it would be worse in Australia. 

 

For Aussie expats in Thailand, you would be lucky to get 15 baht for $1AUD.   

[black tabby12345]

1 hour ago, KhunHeineken said:

Spinning fast as every day passes. 

 

http://australiandebtclock.com.au

 

How can a country with such an abundance be so badly mismanaged and in so much debt? 

 

Bankruptcy by design.

The more debt they(often property speculators) create for own gain on purpose, lesser income tax they need to pay.

That system is called Negative Gearing that started sometime in 1980s.

It ridicules honest workers and traditional savers.

 

And most of Australia's big business (including resource sectors) has been owned by Multinational Mega Corps for decades.

So as the government's policy makers.

 

And socially, the Multi-Culturalism has been used to divide up the society.

Nobody takes the above problems as their own country's.

 

Still, its geographic isolation and stringent immigration policy preventing it  from ending up as today's Europe(mass influx of False Refugees and soaring crimes committed by them) though.

 

[KhunHeineken]

24 minutes ago, black tabby12345 said:

Bankruptcy by design.

The more debt they(often property speculators) create for own gain on purpose, lesser income tax they need to pay.

That system is called Negative Gearing that started sometime in 1980s.

It ridicules honest workers and traditional savers.

I agree.  However, Australian's had their chance to vote for Bill Shorten and a winding back of negative gearing.  Shorten basically lost an election he could lose. Even if you didn't like Shorten, the policy to wind back negative gearing was appropriate.  In the last couple of years, people are calling change, but too late.  They had their change and voted against it.  No political party will go to an election on a negative gearing change in the foreseeable future.

 

Seems like too many Aussies are on the negative gearing gravy train, and it's making for a very unequal Australian society. 

 

Something will have to give eventually, and it isn't going to be pretty when that time comes.

[black tabby12345]

13 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

I agree.  However, Australian's had their chance to vote for Bill Shorten and a winding back of negative gearing.  Shorten basically lost an election he could lose. Even if you didn't like Shorten, the policy to wind back negative gearing was appropriate.  In the last couple of years, people are calling change, but too late.  They had their change and voted against it.  No political party will go to an election on a negative gearing change in the foreseeable future.

 

Seems like too many Aussies are on the negative gearing gravy train, and it's making for a very unequal Australian society. 

 

Something will have to give eventually, and it isn't going to be pretty when that time comes.

 

I have heard of some anti-N.G Move  from the private sector many years ago(well before some political move to against it) for their defense.

 

Banks started to demand repayment of 96% the existing debt before granting a fresh loan to the same borrower.

So someone I knew had to sell away most of the houses he used to own(except for the one he lives in).

 

As a phenomenon, what has been happening in Australia since 1987(that's when the Negative Gearing approved), is exactly the same as what happened in Japan in mid 1980s-early 1990s(their housing bubble bursted around in 1992. And they introduced infamous Zero Interest policy from their financial crisis.

 

Too much  Bad Loans).  Since then, their house price generally started to tumble dramatically, also because of their rapidly aging and shrinking population(more property for fewer buyers).

 

Today, quite a few house owners are expressing their willingness to technically Give  Away(or selling their property at extremely low prices like $1000 to $30000-).

 

Some revolutionary new technologies/concept of Small House for the single people,  such as 3-D printer  made cottage and the container house are also contributing to bring down their overall house price in the market.

[KhunHeineken]

6 hours ago, black tabby12345 said:

 

I have heard of some anti-N.G Move  from the private sector many years ago(well before some political move to against it) for their defense.

 

Banks started to demand repayment of 96% the existing debt before granting a fresh loan to the same borrower.

So someone I knew had to sell away most of the houses he used to own(except for the one he lives in).

 

As a phenomenon, what has been happening in Australia since 1987(that's when the Negative Gearing approved), is exactly the same as what happened in Japan in mid 1980s-early 1990s(their housing bubble bursted around in 1992. And they introduced infamous Zero Interest policy from their financial crisis.

 

Too much  Bad Loans).  Since then, their house price generally started to tumble dramatically, also because of their rapidly aging and shrinking population(more property for fewer buyers).

 

Today, quite a few house owners are expressing their willingness to technically Give  Away(or selling their property at extremely low prices like $1000 to $30000-).

 

Some revolutionary new technologies/concept of Small House for the single people,  such as 3-D printer  made cottage and the container house are also contributing to bring down their overall house price in the market.

If people really wanted change, why didn't they vote for it?  It would have given Shorten a mandate to "correct" Australia's housing market.

 

Who is going to be brave enough to go to an election with it after seeing what happened to Shorten?   

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/15/negative-gearing-proposal-albanese-government-unions-nsw

 

There's a good video clip in the above article.  She explains it quite well, with some sarcasm. 

 

 

 

[gearbox]

Excluding covid times, the Aussie is near 5 years low against the Thai baht. A bit better against other currencies, but still downwards. Tough times coming for the holders of Pacific Peso.

 

[MalcolmB]

On 9/17/2024 at 7:42 AM, steven100 said:

Now 21.78  to the THB ......    very bad price

Sounds good to me.

 

When it hits 15 I will consider a visit there to visit my convict cousins.

And speak to some Aborigines. I am interested to know if they feel the same way about all the immigrants as we do back in the UK.