Could an October Surprise Shift the Deadlocked Trump-Harris Race?

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With just one month until Election Day, the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is tightly contested, resembling a fierce brawl for the presidency. National polls, as well as those in key battleground states, indicate a deadlock, with the outcome likely to hinge on slim margins. In such a scenario, as presidential historian David Greenberg from Rutgers University notes, “A difference of a percentage point or two could be decisive.”

 

While campaign teams are working tirelessly to gain that edge, the possibility of an unexpected event, an “October surprise,” looms large. Such events can dramatically alter the course of a campaign in the crucial final weeks. Historically, October surprises, such as Trump’s Access Hollywood tape in 2016 or the revelation of Hillary Clinton’s emails, have derailed candidates and left them little time to recover.

 

This week alone saw multiple developments that could influence the race. Hurricane Helene ravaged two pivotal battlegrounds, Georgia and North Carolina, claiming over 130 lives and bringing humanitarian concerns to the forefront of political discourse. Kamala Harris, while pledging long-term aid, visited affected areas, declaring, “We’re here for the long haul.” Meanwhile, Trump criticized relief efforts, inaccurately claiming that funds were diverted to assist migrants. This attack, if it resonates with voters dissatisfied with the government’s response, could affect the outcome in these tightly contested states.

 

The escalating war in Gaza is another potential factor. The conflict, which threatens to expand into a regional war, has further complicated the political landscape. While Harris, aligning with the Biden administration, has promised to continue supplying arms to Israel, this stance risks alienating critical voter blocs within her party, particularly Arab-Americans in Michigan and younger, anti-war voters. At the same time, rising oil prices, triggered by fears that Israel may target Iranian refineries, could impact voter sentiment, particularly given Americans' sensitivity to increases at the pump.

 

Despite these challenges, Harris and the Democrats received good news regarding the economy. Recent employment figures showed strong job growth and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%. However, Greenberg notes that voters’ concerns about the economy often go beyond current figures. “What they’re really complaining about is the longer-term failure in certain parts of the country,” particularly de-industrialized rural communities, he says. Trump has consistently performed better than Harris when voters are asked who would handle the economy more effectively, though recent surveys suggest that lead might be narrowing.

 

One potential economic threat for the Democrats, a dockworkers strike that had halted ports on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, dissipated this week after both parties agreed to return to negotiations in January. Had the strike continued, it could have disrupted supply chains and driven up consumer prices right before the election. Additionally, the number of undocumented crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has returned to pre-pandemic levels, lessening the sense of urgency surrounding the border crisis.

 

Trump, however, hasn’t had a smooth week either. His involvement in the January 6 Capitol riot resurfaced when a federal judge released a document from special counsel Jack Smith, detailing Trump’s alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. This renewed focus on his actions during the insurrection could play to Harris’s advantage, especially since a recent CNN poll shows that voters trust her more than Trump on issues of “protecting democracy.”

 

As Election Day draws closer, the potential for an October surprise remains ever-present. Even a small shift in public opinion could prove decisive in a race where victory could be determined by tens of thousands of votes in swing states. “I could totally imagine this election going either way,” says Greenberg, “with extremely significant consequences riding on that vote no matter where your loyalty is.”

 

Based on a report from BBC 2024-10-07

 

 

 

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