Hezbollah Weakened, Trump Returning, Iran Changes Tone

[Social Media]

 

Facing a host of domestic and international pressures, Iran appears to be shifting its rhetoric and strategy, moving away from combative postures towards a more conciliatory approach. Recent diplomatic moves, including engaging with Hezbollah to encourage a cease-fire with Israel, initiating dialogue with Elon Musk as a gesture towards President-elect Donald J. Trump’s network, and scheduling talks in Geneva with European countries, mark a significant departure from its earlier aggressive stance.  

 

In late October, Iran had seemed poised to launch a large-scale retaliatory strike on Israel. A deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps stated emphatically, “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years.” However, within weeks, the tone had softened, with actions suggesting a preference for de-escalation. This pivot stems from a combination of challenges both at home and abroad.  

 

Iran’s recalibration was influenced by multiple factors, not least of which was the outcome of the U.S. election. According to five Iranian officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards, and two former officials, Trump’s November 5 victory triggered strategic concerns. Trump’s unpredictable nature and his previous "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran left the country wary of provoking a hostile U.S. administration. The officials, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, explained that Iran suspended plans to attack Israel to avoid further straining relations with a U.S. leadership that was already stacking its cabinet with pro-Israel, anti-Iran figures.  

 

Domestically, Iran is grappling with economic turmoil. The national currency has been steadily devaluing against the dollar, and a looming energy crisis threatens to exacerbate hardships as winter approaches. On the regional front, Hezbollah, Iran’s closest and most vital ally, suffered significant losses in Lebanon, undermining its influence and raising tensions among the displaced Shia population who look to Iran for support.  

 

Sanam Vakil, the Middle East director at Chatham House, highlighted how this shift in tone aligns with Iran's need to safeguard its broader interests. “It all came together, and the shift in tone is about protecting Iran’s interests,” she noted. The decision reflects a pragmatic effort to adapt to an evolving geopolitical landscape and the changing dynamics in Washington.  

 

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat and nuclear negotiator now at Princeton University, emphasized Iran’s strategic patience. “Iran is now applying restraint to give Trump a chance to see whether he can end the Gaza war and contain Netanyahu,” he said, referencing Israel’s prime minister. “If this happens, it will open the path for more comprehensive negotiations between Tehran and Washington.”  

 

The plight of Hezbollah, however, remains a pressing concern for Iran. Reports of widespread displacement and growing dissatisfaction among Shia Lebanese communities have added pressure on Tehran to recalibrate its approach. Mehdi Afraz, director of a research center at Baqir al-Olum University, candidly acknowledged Iran’s misjudgment of Israel’s military capabilities, remarking that war with Israel is not akin to “a game on PlayStation.”  

 

Iran’s evolving stance underscores the complexities of navigating both domestic crises and international threats. While its actions suggest a desire to lower tensions, the underlying challenges remain formidable, requiring a delicate balance between strategic restraint and regional ambitions.  

 

Based on a report by NYT 2024-11-30

 

 

 

[thesetat2013]

9 hours ago, Social Media said:

Iran’s recalibration was influenced by multiple factors, not least of which was the outcome of the U.S. election. According to five Iranian officials, including a member of the Revolutionary Guards, and two former officials, Trump’s November 5 victory triggered strategic concerns. Trump’s unpredictable nature and his previous "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran left the country wary of provoking a hostile U.S. administration. The officials, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, explained that Iran suspended plans to attack Israel to avoid further straining relations with a U.S. leadership that was already stacking its cabinet with pro-Israel, anti-Iran figures.  

i would love to see how the Dems put a spin on this one... Seems Trump was the better choice at ending provocation and escalation in the wars Biden has gotten the US involved with. I am also reading Putin is softening his stance to engage more hostility and has instead put his agressions on hold waiting a chance to meet with Trump. Putin also has now talked about negotiating a cease fire when Trump takes over. 

No matter what the Dems say, Trump seems to have the countries worried about what he will do if the aggression continues. 

[Srikcir]

45 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

Seems Trump was the better choice at ending provocation and escalation in the wars Biden has gotten the US involved with.

"A ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon appeared to be holding after it came into effect at 4 a.m. local time Wednesday (10 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday). President Biden announced the ceasefire deal Tuesday, saying the U.S. and France had helped broker the agreement."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-netanyahu-war-lebanon-gaza-hamas/

Trump was busy having parties at Mar Largo with his billionaire friends.

[dinsdale]

9 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

"A ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon appeared to be holding after it came into effect at 4 a.m. local time Wednesday (10 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday). President Biden announced the ceasefire deal Tuesday, saying the U.S. and France had helped broker the agreement."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-netanyahu-war-lebanon-gaza-hamas/

Trump was busy having parties at Mar Largo with his billionaire friends.

Biden has nothing to do with it. Israel have smacked the Hez (Iran) hard and the Hez (Iran) know the Orange Man is a comin'.

[candide]

7 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Biden has nothing to do with it. Israel have smacked the Hez (Iran) hard and the Hez (Iran) know the Orange Man is a comin'.

MAGAs trying again to give credit to Trump  for Biden's achievements. So predictable 😆

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, candide said:

MAGAs trying again to give credit to Trump  for Biden's achievements. So predictable 😆

Biden let Iran make billions from oil and finance their proxies. Biden didn't stop the war in Ukraine from happening. Biden didn't give the weapons desperately needed by Ukraine to push the Russians back.

[Nick Carter icp]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

MAGAs trying again to give credit to Trump  for Biden's achievements. So predictable 😆

 

   There DOES seem to have been a change of attitude among foreign leaders ever since President Trump made a speech saying "We want our host hostages  back , and they better be back when I get the seat , otherwise you will pay the price "

   Since then : Hamas have been told to leave Qatar  , Hezbollah have surrendered and Iran aren't  taking a hard line approach anymore . 

   They KNOW that the Don is coming back to town 

[candide]

5 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   There DOES seem to have been a change of attitude among foreign leaders ever since President Trump made a speech saying "We want our host hostages  back , and they better be back when I get the seat , otherwise you will pay the price "

   Since then : Hamas have been told to leave Qatar  , Hezbollah have surrendered and Iran aren't  taking a hard line approach anymore . 

   They KNOW that the Don is coming back to town 

More lame MAGA propaganda. The deal has been brokered by Biden!😆

[Nick Carter icp]

1 minute ago, candide said:

More lame MAGA propaganda. The deal has been brokered by Biden!😆

 

  What deal was brokered by Biden ?

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, candide said:

More lame MAGA propaganda. The deal has been brokered by Biden!😆

How do you know this for a fact? How do you know that Trump has zero influence in this?

[candide]

3 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

  What deal was brokered by Biden ?

Ooops, sorry, the ceasefire.

[G_Money]

Trump hasn’t even been sworn in yet and our adversaries are already changing their tune.

 

Along with Mexican “discussions “, Morning Joe , his female sidekick, Trudeau and the Facebook geek have all flown down to Mar-A- Lago to chat and kiss the ring of President elect Donald Trump.

 

How sweet it is!

 

 

[candide]

6 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

How do you know this for a fact? How do you know that Trump has zero influence in this?

Have you read the news recently? 😊

 

Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire brokered by US and France, to take effect Wednesday

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-poised-approve-ceasefire-with-hezbollah-israeli-official-says-2024-11-26/

[mikeymike100]

1 hour ago, thesetat2013 said:

i would love to see how the Dems put a spin on this one... Seems Trump was the better choice at ending provocation and escalation in the wars Biden has gotten the US involved with. I am also reading Putin is softening his stance to engage more hostility and has instead put his agressions on hold waiting a chance to meet with Trump. Putin also has now talked about negotiating a cease fire when Trump takes over. 

No matter what the Dems say, Trump seems to have the countries worried about what he will do if the aggression continues. 

Yes, agreed, they know he is not just talk, he will actually do something!

[BigStar]

10 minutes ago, candide said:

Have you read the news recently? 😊

 

Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire brokered by US and France, to take effect Wednesday

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-poised-approve-ceasefire-with-hezbollah-israeli-official-says-2024-11-26/

 

Shrewd move by Israel. Wards off Biden's threats, resupplying while waiting for Trump's inauguration. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has declared divine victory, thanks to Biden.

 

 

[dinsdale]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

Have you read the news recently? 😊

 

Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire brokered by US and France, to take effect Wednesday

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-poised-approve-ceasefire-with-hezbollah-israeli-official-says-2024-11-26/

Yep. But what nobody knows is what's happened behind the scenes and how much Trumps immanent Presidency played in all this. Sometimes is a good idea to think a bit wider than what you are are told. 

[thesetat2013]

26 minutes ago, BigStar said:

 

Shrewd move by Israel. Wards off Biden's threats, resupplying while waiting for Trump's inauguration. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has declared divine victory, thanks to Biden.

 

 

So it took Trump winning the elections to get Biden off his lazy butt to do something about the war there? I seriously doubt Biden had much to do about any of it except offering weapons..

[candide]

24 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Yep. But what nobody knows is what's happened behind the scenes and how much Trumps immanent Presidency played in all this. Sometimes is a good idea to think a bit wider than what you are are told. 

In summary, you have nothing. Only your imaginaction about "what nobody knows",

[thesetat2013]

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

"A ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon appeared to be holding after it came into effect at 4 a.m. local time Wednesday (10 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday). President Biden announced the ceasefire deal Tuesday, saying the U.S. and France had helped broker the agreement."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-netanyahu-war-lebanon-gaza-hamas/

Trump was busy having parties at Mar Largo with his billionaire friends.

See what I mean... Biden should be happy they are trying to say he got the deal haha....But if you read the OP.... It is giving the threat of Trump the credit. Not Biden... Try reading news services that are not Democratically controlled ok... 

[candide]

4 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

See what I mean... Biden should be happy they are trying to say he got the deal haha....But if you read the OP.... It is giving the threat of Trump the credit. Not Biden... Try reading news services that are not Democratically controlled ok... 

Making stuff up again? 

Please quote the sentences in the OP giving credit to Trump for the ceasefire? 😆

[dinsdale]

7 minutes ago, candide said:

In summary, you have nothing. Only your imaginaction about "what nobody knows",

It's called critical thinking. You should try it sometime. To think the Trump factor isn't involved in this is IMHO naïve in the extreme.

[dinsdale]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

Making stuff up again? 

Please quote the sentences in the OP giving credit to Trump for the ceasefire? 😆

AP has reported the news. No bias and no speculation. This is what "NEWS" is meant to be. Not the legacy media that you seem to quite happily consume as fact. Commentary, speculation and bias is what commentators do.

[candide]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

It's called critical thinking. You should try it sometime. To think the Trump factor isn't involved in this is IMHO naïve in the extreme.

Suuuuure! Relaying MAGA propaganda is an indicator of critical thinking...

 

Having said that, as the article outlines, the changes of Presidency may change some significant parameters for Iran. So a wait and see attitude is appropriate, in particular re Trunmp's expected attempt at brokering a peace plan between Israel and the Palestinian. A success or a failure will be a significant factor shaping future Iran's foreign policies.

[candide]

21 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

AP has reported the news. No bias and no speculation. This is what "NEWS" is meant to be. Not the legacy media that you seem to quite happily consume as fact. Commentary, speculation and bias is what commentators do.

So it's not claimed in the O.P.

Then please quote and link AP.

(BTW, my link was from Reuters, not MSM)

 

Exit. I hope your AP source is not "Trump teams says...." 😆

Edited 1 hour ago by candide

[dinsdale]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

Suuuuure! Relaying MAGA propaganda is an indicator of critical thinking...

 

Having said that, as the article outlines, the changes of Presidency may change some significant parameters for Iran. So a wait and see attitude is appropriate, in particular re Trunmp's expected attempt at brokering a peace plan between Israel and the Palestinian. A success or a failure will be a significant factor shaping future Iran's foreign policies.

There you go. Pretty much reflects my posts. You debunk your own comment.

[candide]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

There you go. Pretty much reflects my posts. You debunk your own comment.

Absolutely not. My comment was about the ceasefire and is confirmed.

[dinsdale]

Just now, candide said:

So it's not claimed in the O.P.

Then please quote and link AP.

(BTW, my link was from Reuters, not MSM)

I know it's a Reuters article hence my comment about reporting NEWS. I also said that commentary is where speculation and bias comes in which is NOT NEWS. This is very easy to understand. 

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

Absolutely not. My comment was about the ceasefire and is confirmed.

And my comment was the Trump influence.

[candide]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

And my comment was the Trump influence.

And you did not provide any eliable source to back your claim that Trump significantly influenced the ceasefire.

[BigStar]

50 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

So it took Trump winning the elections to get Biden off his lazy butt to do something about the war there? I seriously doubt Biden had much to do about any of it except offering weapons..

 

No, Biden's has been whining about the war and sucking up to his leftist pro-Hamas base from the beginning. His leverage comes from withholding arms or threatening to do so or by slow walking resupply. Dunno about the case of Trump's not winning, mere speculation. But the ceasefire only lasts until just after Trump's inauguration. Israel and Hezbollah know that Trump will certainly give strong support to Israel. For Hezbollah, that's bad news and may be another factor encouraging them to agree to a ceasefire.

 

Trump isn't a warmonger, however. He'd much prefer peace and will work towards it, just as he did previously with some success--but not any cost.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by BigStar