Bank of Thailand. File photo

 

In a climate of economic uncertainty, Thailand's GDP growth for 2024 has underwhelmed expectations, leading experts to predict a possible rate cut by the Bank of Thailand in the first half of the year. Despite a boost from thriving exports, a rebound in tourism, and government stimulus measures, the overall growth rate was hampered due to reduced consumer spending on big-ticket items like automobiles and real estate.

 

Thailand recorded a GDP growth of just 2.5% for 2024, falling below the 2.7% anticipated by market analysts. This modest performance has caught the attention of economists at Kuala Lumpur-based Maybank, who expect monetary policy adjustments to support the nation's economic trajectory.

 

The country's National Economic and Social Development Council has set a growth forecast between 2.3% and 3.3% for 2025, with a central estimate of 2.8%.

 

Maybank maintains a cautious yet optimistic stance on 2025's growth potential, projecting a 2.8% increase. Nonetheless, the firm remains vigilant of potential headwinds both domestically and internationally, as they detailed in a recent research note.

 

Similarly, BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions in London, acknowledged stronger GDP growth in the final quarter of 2024 but noted the full year's figures were lower than the central bank's target. BMI has projected a 3% GDP growth for 2025, bolstered by planned fiscal stimulus.

Yet, slowdowns in the American and Chinese economies could pose challenges, potentially undermining Thailand's export momentum. As the Bank of Thailand grapples with these economic dynamics, a 25-basis-point rate cut seems increasingly probable, as suggested by BMI.

 

Maybank highlights additional threats to the economic outlook, particularly the impact of potential US reciprocal tariffs. These tariffs could disrupt trade, postponing investment decisions and curbing consumer spending, notably in the private housing sector.

 

Currently, Thailand imposes higher tariffs on US goods (avg. 6.2%) compared with what the US taxes Thai imports (approx. 0.85%). Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could hit Thai exports in meat, vegetables, electronics, and machinery sectors, potentially affecting more than half the goods Thailand sends to the US.

 

In response to these looming challenges, experts suggest that both fiscal and monetary measures are necessary to steer the Thai economy back on track.

 

The Bank of Thailand is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2.25% during their upcoming meeting on 26th February, while setting the stage for a potential rate cut of 25 basis points later in the year. This proactive approach aims to bolster investment and sustain economic momentum despite global uncertainties, reported Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2025-02-19

 

 

Just wait till the US tariffs go on cars it's not looking good for Thailand maybe devalue the baht a bit that may help who knows and reducing interest rates won't really affect the average Thai because the banks just charge what they like