Nobody will trust a US treaty again,’ and Japan’s yen is now the new safe haven currency

[placeholder]

19 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Everything, you can CLEARLY see the US dollar has MASSIVELY outperformed the Japanese Yen and the risk of the latter replacing the USD as a safe haven currency is close to nil.

 

David Roche should stick to studying the fall of the Berlin wall. Clearly FOREX is not his best subject.

Traders place record bet on rising Japanese yen, eyeing further rate hikes

Speculators have mounted their biggest ever wager that the Japanese yen will continue to rise as they position for further Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, an abrupt reversal from huge bets against the currency last year.
The yen has strengthened by 4% this year as stronger inflation data has pointed to more rate hikes, calling into question the once hugely popular yen carry trade, which drove investors to position heavily against the currency over the last two years.

Net long positions in yen futures among non-commercial traders - such as hedge funds and other speculators - soared to 96,000 contracts in the week ended February 25. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/traders-place-record-bet-rising-japanese-yen-eyeing-further-rate-hikes-2025-03-03/

[Harrisfan]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Traders place record bet on rising Japanese yen, eyeing further rate hikes

Speculators have mounted their biggest ever wager that the Japanese yen will continue to rise as they position for further Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, an abrupt reversal from huge bets against the currency last year.
The yen has strengthened by 4% this year as stronger inflation data has pointed to more rate hikes, calling into question the once hugely popular yen carry trade, which drove investors to position heavily against the currency over the last two years.

Net long positions in yen futures among non-commercial traders - such as hedge funds and other speculators - soared to 96,000 contracts in the week ended February 25. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/traders-place-record-bet-rising-japanese-yen-eyeing-further-rate-hikes-2025-03-03/

After 25 years of a weak economy things are picking up.

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Traders place record bet on rising Japanese yen, eyeing further rate hikes

Speculators have mounted their biggest ever wager that the Japanese yen will continue to rise as they position for further Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, an abrupt reversal from huge bets against the currency last year.
The yen has strengthened by 4% this year as stronger inflation data has pointed to more rate hikes, calling into question the once hugely popular yen carry trade, which drove investors to position heavily against the currency over the last two years.

Net long positions in yen futures among non-commercial traders - such as hedge funds and other speculators - soared to 96,000 contracts in the week ended February 25. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/traders-place-record-bet-rising-japanese-yen-eyeing-further-rate-hikes-2025-03-03/

 

You may want to check the latest news:

 

 

Doesn't look like the USD has stopped being the true safe haven currency, does it?

[spidermike007]

The US is guilty of betrayal. 

Trump knows no loyalty.

 

Prior to the election many of his supporters knew that he adored dictators and despots and he had a lack of affection for democratically elected leaders, but did anybody guess that it would be this bad, so soon? 

 

Trump is a clear and present danger to the security of both the United States and the Free World and he must be stopped. The Senators and Congress members of his own party and the Democratic party must stand up and defend freedom and rational thinking, against this insane goon. 

 

From some of his speeches during the campaign:

 

I will address inflation, I will bring the price of food down, I will make America affordable again. False. He has not even made the slightest effort to address inflation.

 

I will solve the Ukraine crisis. I will get both parties to the table and I will get this resolved prior to my inauguration, if I am president elect it will happen quickly. False. The opposite has occurred. He is bowing down to Putin's dictates and making Zelensky into enemy number one. 

 

Now Trump is insisting that the U.S have access to 50% of the revenue from Ukrainian resources, and the right of first refusal on the sale of all Ukrainian resources. That's the equivalent of asking Ukraine to pay for war reparations from the damage inflicted by Russia. Ukraine is the victim, and Russia is the aggressor here, and Russia's being supported by China, and yet Trump is siding with Russia. Just another evidentiary point about Trump being one of the world's most dangerous men. I rest my case, your honor. 

 

Trump lied about his representative trying to meet Zelensky, while Zelensky was sleeping, when the media was covering the meeting that Zelensky was having with the representative. Just more fake news coming from the disinformation creep. 

 

Trump even went as far as to say to our European allies that if Russia attacked them he would not defend them according to the laws of the NATO alliance but rather he would encourage Russia to attack them if they were behind on their bills to NATO.

 

That's the kind of ally you don't want to and you don't really need to have, isn't it? He is essentially making America less relevant by the day. 

 

Bizarre, insane, highly arrogant, inappropriate, unhinged and blatantly ignorant policy.

 

 

[Patong2021]

18 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Well done for maintaining your record of getting EVERY SINGLE post completely wrong.

 

In fact the US economy has the strongest domestic market in the entire world. If the whole world stopped selling to the US or buying US products the US economy would continue very strong, obviously affected but still very much intact. Whereas the rest of the world would suffer terribly without the economic engine that is the USA.

 

See, the US is NOT an export dependent economy the way Japan or Germany are. It has its own very strong domestic market.

 

Wonderful that the US  domestic economy is strong, but it is you who has interpreted incorrectly and is so arrogant as to  attack anyone stating the obvious.

70% +of the US economy is based upon the service sector and is not particulary resilient. Inflated healthcare costs represent 17% of the GDP. 11% is government. Only 17.6% comes from industry.  Financial services like banking  and insurance  do not create wealth for the nation, yet you carry on as if it is creating national wealth. China's industrial sector accounts for 36.5% of its GDP. That's why it is a powerhouse and it can markets to other regions like Latin America and replace US industries.

 

- Exports  represent 11% of the US GDP.  If the export market is reduced by 10% it will have a significant impact.

- The US domestic economy relies on cheap imports that it transforms into more valuable finished products. If the USA loses access to those cheap imports its domestic ecomy will be negatively impacted.  Trump loves to attack Canadian lumber imports, but the reality is that the USA does  not have the capacity to replace the Canadian lumber. It doesn't have the sawmills or the non impact forest areas to cut. When the USA  cuts down trees today, it negatively impacts watersheds and puts communities at risk for flooding and other manmade catastrophes. US consumers  won't pay the higher costs of US lumber.

Trump complains about  Canadian aluminum, but the USA can't replace  it and Canada can easily sell to world markets.

Trump says he doesn't need cheap Canadian oil that is bought cheap , refined and then sold back at inflated prices to Canada, all done by US oil companies . Good. Canada should keep the oil and let the US midwest go without because the pipelines are from Canada into the midwest, not from the rest of the USA into the midwest.

The US farmers depend on cheap fertilizer from Canada. Let them buy the contaminated potash at 2X the price from Russia and pass on the costs to consumers.

Tourism  is 3% of the US GDP. Watch it  shrink and see how many of the 9 million employed in the sector lose their jobs.

 

In order to have  need for a service based economy there must be an inflow of wealth and that will not happen if  the world stops  transacting with the USA. Consider what happens if the  world moves away from the  domonance of  the US banking system and its US  control and instead moves to EU  or Japanese banks. No more US influence. The USA is forcing that change,

 

[Harrisfan]

5 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Wonderful that the US  domestic economy is strong, but it is you who has interpreted incorrectly and is so arrogant as to  attack anyone stating the obvious.

70% +of the US economy is based upon the service sector and is not particulary resilient. Inflated healthcare costs represent 17% of the GDP. 11% is government. Only 17.6% comes from industry.  Financial services like banking  and insurance  do not create wealth for the nation, yet you carry on as if it is creating national wealth. China's industrial sector accounts for 36.5% of its GDP. That's why it is a powerhouse and it can markets to other regions like Latin America and replace US industries.

 

- Exports  represent 11% of the US GDP.  If the export market is reduced by 10% it will have a significant impact.

- The US domestic economy relies on cheap imports that it transforms into more valuable finished products. If the USA loses access to those cheap imports its domestic ecomy will be negatively impacted.  Trump loves to attack Canadian lumber imports, but the reality is that the USA does  not have the capacity to replace the Canadian lumber. It doesn't have the sawmills or the non impact forest areas to cut. When the USA  cuts down trees today, it negatively impacts watersheds and puts communities at risk for flooding and other manmade catastrophes. US consumers  won't pay the higher costs of US lumber.

Trump complains about  Canadian aluminum, but the USA can't replace  it and Canada can easily sell to world markets.

Trump says he doesn't need cheap Canadian oil that is bought cheap , refined and then sold back at inflated prices to Canada, all done by US oil companies . Good. Canada should keep the oil and let the US midwest go without because the pipelines are from Canada into the midwest, not from the rest of the USA into the midwest.

The US farmers depend on cheap fertilizer from Canada. Let them buy the contaminated potash at 2X the price from Russia and pass on the costs to consumers.

Tourism  is 3% of the US GDP. Watch it  shrink and see how many of the 9 million employed in the sector lose their jobs.

 

In order to have  need for a service based economy there must be an inflow of wealth and that will not happen if  the world stops  transacting with the USA. Consider what happens if the  world moves away from the  domonance of  the US banking system and its US  control and instead moves to EU  or Japanese banks. No more US influence. The USA is forcing that change,

 

Bit bigger than Hua Hin

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Wonderful that the US  domestic economy is strong, but it is you who has interpreted incorrectly and is so arrogant as to  attack anyone stating the obvious.

70% +of the US economy is based upon the service sector and is not particulary resilient. Inflated healthcare costs represent 17% of the GDP. 11% is government. Only 17.6% comes from industry.  Financial services like banking  and insurance  do not create wealth for the nation, yet you carry on as if it is creating national wealth. China's industrial sector accounts for 36.5% of its GDP. That's why it is a powerhouse and it can markets to other regions like Latin America and replace US industries.

 

- Exports  represent 11% of the US GDP.  If the export market is reduced by 10% it will have a significant impact.

- The US domestic economy relies on cheap imports that it transforms into more valuable finished products. If the USA loses access to those cheap imports its domestic ecomy will be negatively impacted.  Trump loves to attack Canadian lumber imports, but the reality is that the USA does  not have the capacity to replace the Canadian lumber. It doesn't have the sawmills or the non impact forest areas to cut. When the USA  cuts down trees today, it negatively impacts watersheds and puts communities at risk for flooding and other manmade catastrophes. US consumers  won't pay the higher costs of US lumber.

Trump complains about  Canadian aluminum, but the USA can't replace  it and Canada can easily sell to world markets.

Trump says he doesn't need cheap Canadian oil that is bought cheap , refined and then sold back at inflated prices to Canada, all done by US oil companies . Good. Canada should keep the oil and let the US midwest go without because the pipelines are from Canada into the midwest, not from the rest of the USA into the midwest.

The US farmers depend on cheap fertilizer from Canada. Let them buy the contaminated potash at 2X the price from Russia and pass on the costs to consumers.

Tourism  is 3% of the US GDP. Watch it  shrink and see how many of the 9 million employed in the sector lose their jobs.

 

In order to have  need for a service based economy there must be an inflow of wealth and that will not happen if  the world stops  transacting with the USA. Consider what happens if the  world moves away from the  domonance of  the US banking system and its US  control and instead moves to EU  or Japanese banks. No more US influence. The USA is forcing that change,

 

 

Leaving the preposterous nature of your thought-experiment to one side, as if the world would ever stop transacting with the US, one of the most important export markets in the world, you are delusional if you think the US is dependent on Canada in any way shape or form.

 

The US does not have the capacity to replace Canadian lumber? You must be dreaming. Germany can replace Russian oil with Norwegian and Canadian oil but the US cannot do likewise? How odd. Speaking of Russia, perhaps the US could buy some cheaper Russian lumber, after all there is already talk of reviving Nord Stream 2 with American backing.

 

Same with Aluminium, why can the US not replace it and get it elsewhere? Nor does the US depend on Canadian fertilizer, that is all fantasy.

 

But thanks for confirming that exports represent 11% only of the US GDP. That leaves only 24 trillion then. How will the US survive on this paltry sum? Hahahaha. Dependent on Canadian fertilizer, thanks for the laughs Patong.

 

[rough diamond]

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Im sure you will get your chance to choose your master someday.

You already have in Putin the puppet master and Trump his puppet..

[realfunster]

53 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

The reality is that Russia did not pose a threat to many EU members, or Canada.

 

That's life - history shows you don't need an army until you do and if you are not ready, you are screwed.

In the last week alone both the UK and now Germany have committed to increase military spending.

I don't think Europe should be over-relying on US to ride in and save the day (again). Robust European militaries strengthen both the individual countries and the whole NATO group.

 

54 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

US consumer market is dependent on China. If China stops selling to the USA, Walmart, Costco and others will  be empty of products. The Chinese are a lot stronger and more unified that the USA. They can go without fancy things. Deny an American his pork rinds and the trailer parks will erupt in riots.

 

The reverse is also true, China is highly dependent on exports to the US consumer market. 

China is 15% of all US imports. US is 16% of all Chinese exports but makes up around 46% of their overall trade surplus. (USD 404bn/USD 877bn - WITs/Worldbank)

Whilst the US consumer will notice impacts on product choice and availability, a trade war means large swathes of Chinese losing jobs and potential civil unrest.

I am not convinced that China wins a blinking contest on that one.

 

[connda]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

The only difference now is that the US is posed to violate "treaties" with it's allies as opposed to violating "treaties" with its so-called enemies.  Unilaterally pulling out of treaties is a mainstay of US Geopolitics - not just Trump.  As Russia has so succinctly stated, the US is "not agreement-capable" ("недоговороспособны" (nedogovorosposobny) in Russian). Russia knows it, Iran knows it, China knows it, North Korea knows it - and now America's allies know it. However America's allies and their mouthpieces like Roche will now melt down into a puddle of goo and kick and scream about Trump being Putin's Puppet and Xi's Tool.  However, both those leaders are equally distrustful of anything that looks like an agreement or treaty coming out of Washington.  So now everyone hates American and Trump-haters really really really hate Trump and his entire administration as they search for spanners to throw into the works. In the meanwhile they just shift into hyperbolic over-drive and spit, froth, have conniption-fits.

[connda]

This is just hyperbolic poppycock.  The Yen isn't going to replace the USD as the reserve currency or the world's "safe-haven currency" anymore than the Ruble or Yuan will anytime in the near-future.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

David Roche is Irish and of course the Irish love to make up stories. 

 

The Japanese Yen has no more replaced the US Dollar as a safe haven currency than Canadian bacon. In fact the Japanese Yen has been FALLING against the US dollar for a very long time.

'

I can only imagine David Roche was joking. Or else he's lost his mind.

 

He's certainly not sounding well and most of these proclamations are not supported at all. He used to be better than that.

 

[transam]

Whilst the orange Muppet is in the big chair, the World's safety has been thrown into the air.

 

Now how many prominent folk warned about Trump during the Prezzy campaign who were actually bang on with their predictions........

 

The red ball-cap wearers fell for it all, and a few on here..............

[Lacessit]

39 minutes ago, realfunster said:

 

That's life - history shows you don't need an army until you do and if you are not ready, you are screwed.

In the last week alone both the UK and now Germany have committed to increase military spending.

I don't think Europe should be over-relying on US to ride in and save the day (again). Robust European militaries strengthen both the individual countries and the whole NATO group.

 

 

The reverse is also true, China is highly dependent on exports to the US consumer market. 

China is 15% of all US imports. US is 16% of all Chinese exports but makes up around 46% of their overall trade surplus. (USD 404bn/USD 877bn - WITs/Worldbank)

Whilst the US consumer will notice impacts on product choice and availability, a trade war means large swathes of Chinese losing jobs and potential civil unrest.

I am not convinced that China wins a blinking contest on that one.

 

A trade war also means large swathes of Americans losing jobs, and potential civil unrest. DOGE is lending a hand as well.

 

The difference is, Americans have the Second Amendment.

 

 

[Yagoda]

51 minutes ago, rough diamond said:

You already have in Putin the puppet master and Trump his puppet..

Just so its clear you have no evidence that would be believed by a normal breathing human being. You are in Lizard People, Flat Earth Territory.

[rough diamond]

4 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Just so its clear you have no evidence that would be believed by a normal breathing human being. You are in Lizard People, Flat Earth Territory.

It is a pointless and stupid response but I do agree with you as it seems to sum you up perfectly. 

[BangkokReady]

How does trust come into it?  When did they "trust" the US?  They were part of NATO, now maybe they aren't.

 

If Trump changed his mind, they would let him re-join whatever he wants.

 

You're acting like he's ripped someone off and made a run for it, when really he's just leaving a subscription service who would be only too happy to see him come back.

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

China doesn't allow the yuan to float freely. So no rational person is going to park their money there.

There are 5 IMF Reserve Currencies that make up the SDR - USD, GBP, EUR, JPY and the Chinese RMB.

In the 60s the Pound Sterling was the major currency but superseded by the USD. Just because the USD may be the most common doesn't make the only reserve currency. Countries will spread the load so to speak and are certainly open to movement based on political situations.

At this point in time, with military unrest and trade wars, JPY certainly stands out from the others.

[Yagoda]

40 minutes ago, rough diamond said:

It is a pointless and stupid response but I do agree with you as it seems to sum you up perfectly. 

Yeah Im the one with Russians under my bed, I forgot.

[transam]

Just now, Yagoda said:

Yeah Im the one with Russians under my bed, I forgot.

We haven't.............

[Cameroni]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

 

At this point in time, with military unrest and trade wars, JPY certainly stands out from the others.

 

Yes, it particularly stand out for having been beaten about the head mercilesly by the USD for the last few years.

[KhunLA]

JP Yen to replace USD as safe haven, yet, holds ~$1T of USA debt ... hmm

 

Let me think about that for sec  😎  Y'all smell that ... 

 

 

Oh yea ... along with this little tidbit ...

 

[uncletiger]

3 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Cant have utopia without the boss, and there isnt a better boss than us. We make the rules. 

 

You guys have your own worries. Our worry is China. Im sure you will get your chance to choose your master someday.

 

I generally agree with you, but our real worry isn't China. The CCP was created for a purpose, and ultimately controlled by a much bigger threat headquartered in Switzerland. China is just one front in a larger war.

[uncletiger]

The one truth in the original post is that NATO is dead.  And that's a good thing. Other than that it's nonsense. Nobody is buying the Yen out of fear.

 

So what is the new safe haven currency? Buy Bitcoin.

[KhunLA]

9 minutes ago, uncletiger said:

The one truth in the original post is that NATO is dead.  And that's a good thing. Other than that it's nonsense. Nobody is buying the Yen out of fear.  ...  So what is the new safe haven currency? Buy Bitcoin.

 

 

Agree ... and new safe haven ?  Thai land, since not making any more.   Along with our THB in Thai bank, since we live in TH 

[TedG]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

Was a NATO Country attacked or something?  

[connda]

Op - do you research instead of parroting "experts" who are obviously anti-Trump.

The Japenese Yen as held a place as a global "Safe Haven Currency" over the last 30 years, especially during the 2008 stock market crash when the Yen appreciated as stocks tanked.  

The yen overtaking the dollar is hyperbole at best. The USD remains the global reserve currency (58% of Forex reserves, per IMF 2024), dominates trade (88% of Forex transactions), and is backed by liquid U.S. Treasuries ($27 trillion market).
The yen, at 4-5% of reserves, lacks the scale or global trust to “displace” it. Even if Trump’s tariffs (10-20% proposed) spark de-dollarization chatter, no currency—including the yen—has the infrastructure to replace the USD anytime soon.

All Roche is saying is, "I hate Donald Trump - be afraid!  I'm an "Expert" and I say that Trump brings DOOM!  Muhhhaaahhhhhaaa." 

<laughs>  "Is the Dollar IS DOOMED"  In the long-run?  Probably, unless Trump implements some fiscal and monetary measures to rein in its decline which has been a work in progress since Nixon went off the gold standard.  Is the USD going to lose value.  Probably.  It was Trump's stated goal to devalue the USD to fix problems with the US balance of trade.  Is the USD going to lose its place as a Safe Haven Currency? 

No. More than likely both the USD and JPY will remain "safe havens." 

Beware of Nightmare On Pennsylvania Avenue!  Don't snooze or you'll lose!!!  

Donald J. Kruger is gonna get 'cha!

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

David Roche is Irish and of course the Irish love to make up stories. 

 

The Japanese Yen has no more replaced the US Dollar as a safe haven currency than Canadian bacon. In fact the Japanese Yen has been FALLING against the US dollar for a very long time.

'

I can only imagine David Roche was joking. Or else he's lost his mind.

The Irish love to blather, and bad jokes are the norm. Speaking as one that has Irish origins.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

That's life - history shows you don't need an army until you do and if you are not ready, you are screwed.

In the last week alone both the UK and now Germany have committed to increase military spending.

I don't think Europe should be over-relying on US to ride in and save the day (again). Robust European militaries strengthen both the individual countries and the whole NATO group.

 

 

The reverse is also true, China is highly dependent on exports to the US consumer market. 

China is 15% of all US imports. US is 16% of all Chinese exports but makes up around 46% of their overall trade surplus. (USD 404bn/USD 877bn - WITs/Worldbank)

Whilst the US consumer will notice impacts on product choice and availability, a trade war means large swathes of Chinese losing jobs and potential civil unrest.

I am not convinced that China wins a blinking contest on that one.

 

As I see it, China only succeeded in transiting from making bad steel in backyard furnaces to the economic wonderland because greedy western company owners wanted more profit by exploiting Chinese peasants. If it ever happens that manufacturing returns to the US ( likely when factories don't need labour, due to AI robotics ) China will be in dire straits.

Unhappily, robot factories won't need American labour either, so expect social upheaval, and if no one is working, who is going to buy the stuff made in those human devoid factories?

[hotsun]

13 hours ago, uncletiger said:

The one truth in the original post is that NATO is dead.  And that's a good thing. Other than that it's nonsense. Nobody is buying the Yen out of fear.

 

So what is the new safe haven currency? Buy Bitcoin.

Wow so there is at least one person here who gets it