Even RCP Polling Average has Trump in Negative Territory

[placeholder]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

And the thing is, RCP's polling average actually favors someone who approval is on the decline because it gives equal weight to all the polling results it uses which go back about 3 weeks. So trends are not accounted for.

A fairer approach is to weight results using not just recency, but accuracy based on past performance and house effects. House effects takes into account the polling bias of the pollster. This is what natesilver.net does:

 "They weight more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here. They adjust for house effects. And they account for uncertainty, estimating the fairly wide range where new polls might come in."

https://www.natesilver.net/p/which-polls-are-biased-toward-harris

[flyingtlger]

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 2:56 AM, placeholder said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

And the thing is, RCP's polling average actually favors someone who approval is on the decline because it gives equal weight to all the polling results it uses which go back about 3 weeks. So trends are not accounted for.

A fairer approach is to weight results using not just recency, but accuracy based on past performance and house effects. House effects takes into account the polling bias of the pollster. This is what natesilver.net does:

 "They weight more reliable polls more heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here. They adjust for house effects. And they account for uncertainty, estimating the fairly wide range where new polls might come in."

https://www.natesilver.net/p/which-polls-are-biased-toward-harris

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Wasnt Nate Silver just ditched by ABC?

[Yagoda]

So are we going to have a Topic every day as the poll numbers shift? Thats what they do, shift.

 

At least you guys are looking at www.realclearpolitcs.com and getting out of your propaganda bubbles.

[jerrymahoney]

Getting out of the propaganda bubbles and reading the NY Post.

[uncletiger]

Does anyone honestly believe fake polls anymore?  Seriously. Who makes up this stuff?

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:00 AM, Yagoda said:

So are we going to have a Topic every day as the poll numbers shift? Thats what they do, shift.

 

At least you guys are looking at www.realclearpolitcs.com and getting out of your propaganda bubbles.

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It's clear you haven't a clue about trends.

And, as I pointed out, the Real Clear Politics method of determining polling average is ludicrously simple-minded. For one thing, it takes no account of recency. That means when someone's favorability is on the upswing, it underplays that. Similarly, it also underplays it when someone's favorability is on the downswing.

Silver's poll not only takes recency into account but the pollster's previous accuracy and statistical bias. And for the record, Silver believed that Trump was going to win.

[theshu25]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:00 AM, Yagoda said:

So are we going to have a Topic every day as the poll numbers shift? Thats what they do, shift.

 

At least you guys are looking at www.realclearpolitcs.com and getting out of your propaganda bubbles.

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You still working for Trump.

[Lacessit]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:11 AM, theshu25 said:

You still working for Trump.

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He's working for Putin.

[jvs]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:00 AM, Yagoda said:

So are we going to have a Topic every day as the poll numbers shift? Thats what they do, shift.

 

At least you guys are looking at www.realclearpolitcs.com and getting out of your propaganda bubbles.

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I love the smell of MAGA panic in the morning!

 

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:15 AM, jvs said:

I love the smell of MAGA panic in the morning!

 

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I havent seen many topics from Trump supporters starting with the words OMG.

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:11 AM, theshu25 said:

You still working for Trump.

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No Im employed by the International Zionist World Control Committee. Trump is just our tool to subjugate all white people.

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:14 AM, Lacessit said:

He's working for Putin.

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Exactly. He is a wonderful humanitarian that should get the Nobel Peace Prize. Im proud to be an apparatchik in the Moscow City Ministry of Silly Walks.

 

Im surprised you didnt sink to your normal level and accuse me of having homosexual sex with him.

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:23 AM, Yagoda said:

I havent seen many topics from Trump supporters starting with the words OMG.

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When the POTUS repeatedly utters huge falsehood and authorizes actions  so stupid that they defy belief, using OMG is appropriate.

[Patong2021]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:04 AM, uncletiger said:

Does anyone honestly believe fake polls anymore?  Seriously. Who makes up this stuff?

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Elon Musk's minions.

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:27 AM, Yagoda said:

No Im employed by the International Zionist World Control Committee. Trump is just our tool to subjugate all white people.

Exactly. He is a wonderful humanitarian that should get the Nobel Peace Prize. Im proud to be an apparatchik in the Moscow City Ministry of Silly Walks.

 

Im surprised you didnt sink to your normal level and accuse me of having homosexual sex with him.

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Interesting how acute your BS detectors are when it comes to far-fetched conspiracy allegations targeting you. You need to get them recalibrated so that they function full time and for all targets.

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:09 AM, placeholder said:

It's clear you haven't a clue about trends.

And, as I pointed out, the Real Clear Politics method of determining polling average is ludicrously simple-minded. For one thing, it takes no account of recency. That means when someone's favorability is on the upswing, it underplays that. Similarly, it also underplays it when someone's favorability is on the downswing.

Silver's poll not only takes recency into account but the pollster's previous accuracy and statistical bias. And for the record, Silver believed that Trump was going to win.

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Figures dont lie, liars do.

 

Spinning like a Samsung Washing Machine. Tell us how you feel about Schumer caving? Hey did Trump close the border?

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:29 AM, placeholder said:

Interesting how acute your BS detectors are when it comes to far-fetched conspiracy allegations targeting you. You need to get them recalibrated so that they function full time and for all targets.

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Im still a winner though. My guy won. How about you? 

 

Thank god you arent an American

[Patong2021]

THe polling in respect to  the Republican handling of the economy is not looking good.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-americans-see-trumps-actions-economy-too-erratic-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-03-12/

 

Nearly half of Americans said the economy is worsening, according to a  The Economist/YouGov poll.Forty-eight percent of respondents said they believe the economy is getting worse, while 19 percent said it is getting better. The poll took place between March 9 and 11,

 

I get what Trump's goal is, but he is getting bad advice from economists and strategist who live in fringe theory land. Tanking the economy is not going to break the inflation curse.

[worgeordie]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:00 AM, Yagoda said:

So are we going to have a Topic every day as the poll numbers shift? Thats what they do, shift.

 

At least you guys are looking at www.realclearpolitcs.com and getting out of your propaganda bubbles.

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You will never accept anything negative about your leader , because you are in a cult....

and most likely don't know it., the man is a liar (of the highest order) a grifter (still doing

it ,even as president) a convicted felon ,a sexual abuser of women, a multiple Bankrupt,

but you will still think the Sun shines out of his arse .... because your in a cult.

 

regards Worgeordie

 

[jvs]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:31 AM, Yagoda said:

Figures dont lie, liars do.

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Yes indeed,finally you are telling something truthful !

 

[Harrisfan]

+4 based on the same method that picked the election. The -11 poll is rubbish.

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:31 AM, Yagoda said:

Figures dont lie, liars do.

 

Spinning like a Samsung Washing Machine. Tell us how you feel about Schumer caving? Hey did Trump close the border?

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I offer facts and all you've got is an old saw to reply with. You've got nothing.

How do I feel about Schumer's reversal? Relief. Now the blame will fall entirely on the Republicans. Except, as I've noted, for MAGA folks who will find a conspiracy to blame.

[Harrisfan]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:47 AM, placeholder said:

I offer facts and all you've got is an old saw to reply with. You've got nothing.

How do I feel about Schumer's reversal? Relief. Now the blame will fall entirely on the Republicans. Except, as I've noted, for MAGA folks who will find a conspiracy to blame.

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But the average includes a -11 garbage poll.

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:45 AM, Harrisfan said:

+4 based on the same method that picked the election. The -11 poll is rubbish.

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You are clueless about trends. And even without the 11% figure, it would show Trump slightly behind. Even polls that tend to give Trump higher marks have shown a decline in support.

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:45 AM, Harrisfan said:

+4 based on the same method that picked the election. The -11 poll is rubbish.

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Care to offer an actual  explanation of that claim?

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:49 AM, Harrisfan said:

But the average includes a -11 garbage poll.

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i didnt look. Let me guess. CNN?

[placeholder]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:52 AM, Yagoda said:

i didnt look. Let me guess. CNN?

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Not surprising that you don't look. Guess again

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:41 AM, jvs said:

Yes indeed,finally you are telling something truthful !

 

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Thank you. Hopefully you will start soon, although in view of your political proclivities, its doubtful.

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:53 AM, placeholder said:

Not surprising that you don't look. Guess again

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I woke up late so Im still on the Guardian, the Post, the Financial Times, the Hill, IBD...Ill get to it later.

 

How about you? Tell us who did that -11 poll?

[Yagoda]

  On 3/14/2025 at 4:41 AM, worgeordie said:

You will never accept anything negative about your leader , because you are in a cult....

and most likely don't know it., the man is a liar (of the highest order) a grifter (still doing

it ,even as president) a convicted felon ,a sexual abuser of women, a multiple Bankrupt,

but you will still think the Sun shines out of his arse .... because your in a cult.

 

regards Worgeordie

 

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Translation: My hatred of Trump and his supporter overrides everything in my life, I exist for nothing else.