US Tariffs Threaten Thai Economy with B360bn Blow

[webfact]

Composite image courtesy of Kasikorn Research Centre

 

Devastating tariff hikes from the United States could hit Thailand with a jaw-dropping 360 billion baht loss, shaving a staggering 2% off the nation's GDP, as warned by experts at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

 

The clampdown, set for April 9, sees reciprocal tariffs soaring to 37% on Thai goods, thanks to President Trump's latest executive order. Initially pegged at 36%, the official document put the rate at a hefty 37% instead.

 

These sweeping tariffs, primarily targeted at steel, aluminium, and automotive sectors, could severely dent export values, potentially slashing it from $4.73 billion to $4.08 billion, equivalent to a staggering 22 billion baht loss. Experts fear an influx of Chinese goods into Thailand as China redirects its exports.

 

As economic losses stack up—recent events including a natural disaster have compounded the trouble—predictions put losses at a grim 375 billion baht, slicing GDP growth estimations to a mere 1% this year.

 

The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), with Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan at the helm, is rallying for strategic responses—pivoting toward negotiations and considering free trade agreements with new partners to dodge pitfalls. Industries are bracing for impact, with a more crystalline picture anticipated by May.

 

 

 

In the ready-to-eat food segment, hefty tariff increments hit exports hard, notably crippling canned tuna, veggies, and fruits. Urgent calls ring out for accelerated government negotiations and preventive actions against potential reroutes of Chinese goods facing US tariffs.

 

As businesses grapple with these looming challenges, industry leaders stress cost management, inventory planning, and timely coordination with US partners. Highlighting hidden opportunities, Mr Visit Limlurcha advocates for leveraging the import of US pork offal for pet food, boosting protein supply while addressing consumer health concerns.

 

In a similar vein, Suriyon Sriorathaikul of Beauty Gems—an export giant—urges for government interventions to soften the relentless economic blow, proposing interest cuts or pandemic-mode relief for embattled producers. Gems and jewellery trade make a whopping contribution of 400 billion baht to the economy, underlining the severity of a potential tariff-triggered slump.

 

As talks intensify, all eyes are on the government, tasked with tackling these tariffs head-on to keep Thailand on a competitive footing in the global market. The next steps could determine the balance of trade, growth, and economic resilience in a markedly turbulent year.

 

Based on a story by Bangkok Post

 

-- 2025-04-04

 

 

[Pouatchee]

😋

[ChicagoExpat]

I'm not a Trumpie, and understand that the smart people say tariffs are bad, but at the same time I don't know why any country should stand for a situation where there exports are taxed by a foreign country while they allow that same country to export to them duty-free. 

[John Drake]

39 minutes ago, webfact said:

Urgent calls ring out for accelerated government negotiations and preventive actions against potential reroutes of Chinese goods facing US tariffs.

 

For several years, Thailand has advertised that it is doing this. They were warned repeatedly, just as was Vietnam. 

[John Drake]

23 minutes ago, ChicagoExpat said:

I'm not a Trumpie, and understand that the smart people say tariffs are bad, but at the same time I don't know why any country should stand for a situation where there exports are taxed by a foreign country while they allow that same country to export to them duty-free. 

 

In the past, access to markets was part of American foreign policy. In return for supporting the US in the region, Thailand was given preferred access to US markets. Thailand decided to thumb its nose at that through: laundering Chinese investments and companies through Thailand to help China escape tariffs and sanctions, allowing Chinese goods barrier free access to Thailand, providing Russia with cover for eluding sanctions, voting with China and Russia against the US in international forums, and then turning around and buying from the EU, China, and Russia--see Gripens, for example. What did they expect?

[TheAppletons]

34 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

In the past, access to markets was part of American foreign policy. In return for supporting the US in the region, Thailand was given preferred access to US markets. Thailand decided to thumb its nose at that through: laundering Chinese investments and companies through Thailand to help China escape tariffs and sanctions, allowing Chinese goods barrier free access to Thailand, providing Russia with cover for eluding sanctions, voting with China and Russia against the US in international forums, and then turning around and buying from the EU, China, and Russia--see Gripens, for example. What did they expect?

 

  Awwww, that's adorable that you think this tariff fiasco has anything to do with what you wrote.  

[jimgilly]

3 hours ago, ChicagoExpat said:

I'm not a Trumpie, and understand that the smart people say tariffs are bad, but at the same time I don't know why any country should stand for a situation where there exports are taxed by a foreign country while they allow that same country to export to them duty-free. 

These are all self-inflcted wounds and they are not going to be fixed by the lunatics in charge of the country.  

 

First the US dismantled it's manufacturing base, became dependent on other countries to supply the goods they once made and now think they can reverse this and go back to where they were 30 plus years ago.  Not going to happen. 

 

Before this year is over, the US will be in total turmoil as other countries isolate it and find more secure options as they unite against a now bankrupt, dysfunctional "world power".   As the West goes down the East will rise.  End of story.

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, ChicagoExpat said:

I'm not a Trumpie, and understand that the smart people say tariffs are bad, but at the same time I don't know why any country should stand for a situation where there exports are taxed by a foreign country while they allow that same country to export to them duty-free. 

You bought the big lie.

Trump's so called "reciprocal tariffs" (actually Trump's Massive Tax Hike for American consumers) is not based on the target nation's tariff rates. It's shocking ow many ignorant people are buying his garbage sleazy lies. They are actually computed by trade imbalances. This is so incredibly stupid. Trade is usually good for both parties. So Americans buy more Thai goods than Thai's buy American goods. DUH! The USA has a much bigger population and is much richer than Thailand. Do you think Americans should now grow all the rice noodles they need at home? WHY? Take Colombia another irrationally hard hit nation. The USA produces about 1 percent of their coffee (basically in Hawaii). So now moron knows nothing about economics Trump thinks what? That the USA should grow all if's coffee now? Pure self destructive idiocy. Tariffs can be useful when narrowly and strategically used to help specific local industries. The exact opposite of Trump's self destructive tarriff the entire world self destructive iNSANITY. Now even if Trump backed out of all of this tomorrow which of course ge won't the damage has already been done. The entire world now knows (tragically) that the USA is not a serious nation and should never be trusted at all. Americans are going to be paying in pain for the mistake of putting Trump 2,0 for generations to come. 

[Jedimaster]

52 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

You bought the big lie.

Trump's so called "reciprocal tariffs" (actually Trump's Massive Tax Hike for American consumers) is not based on the target nation's tariff rates. It's shocking ow many ignorant people are buying his garbage sleazy lies. They are actually computed by trade imbalances. This is so incredibly stupid. Trade is usually good for both parties. So Americans buy more Thai goods than Thai's buy American goods. DUH! The USA has a much bigger population and is much richer than Thailand. Do you think Americans should now grow all the rice noodles they need at home? WHY? Take Colombia another irrationally hard hit nation. The USA produces about 1 percent of their coffee (basically in Hawaii). So now moron knows nothing about economics Trump thinks what? That the USA should grow all if's coffee now? Pure self destructive idiocy. Tariffs can be useful when narrowly and strategically used to help specific local industries. The exact opposite of Trump's self destructive tarriff the entire world self destructive iNSANITY. Now even if Trump backed out of all of this tomorrow which of course ge won't the damage has already been done. The entire world now knows (tragically) that the USA is not a serious nation and should never be trusted at all. Americans are going to be paying in pain for the mistake of putting Trump 2,0 for generations to come. 

Very well put.

These ridiculous tariffs are typical Trump and are going to create major pain in East Asia, as well as in the US.

Meanwhile, it is very likely that the US trade deficit will remain as it is, and so will the budget deficit, despite all the talking and senseless measures.

[Jingthing]

Just now, Jedimaster said:

Very well put.

These ridiculous tariffs are typical Trump are going to create major pain in East Asia, as well as in the US.

Meanwhile, it is very likely that the US trade deficit will remain as it is, and so will the budget deficit, despite all the talking and senseless measures.

Yes and no.

Trump's epic idiocy will make Americans much poorer and more aftaid to spend money on anything.

So the trade deficits will naturally shrink because of that self inflicted Trump pain. 

The world will suffer too.

American consumer spending is normally 70 percent of the American economy but also 20 percent of the global economy.

[Thingamabob]

The USA backed Thailand when Thailand was threatened with reparations for it's cooperation with Japan during WW2. The USA continued to support Thailand in the following years when the threat of a communist takeover was imminent. Now Thailand is cosying up to China and appears to have forgotten the long term friendship and support it has received from the USA. Not surprising Thailand was specifically mentioned as an offender in the tariff debate in the US, and has been hit hard accordingly. And there could be worse to come..

[Isaan sailor]

Easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, I know…US should have begun with a 10% worldwide tariff and negotiated from there.

[Sir Dude]

The US has slowly been inching away from globalism etc. and becoming more isolationist again ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. After WW2 the US policy was to contain the USSR through dangling all the goodies of global free trade, patroling the oceans to make them safe for cargo ships (as they were the only with the naval assets to do it) so countries could develop and get richer... but the caveat was that you had to side with the US on security issues and essentually let them write these country's security policies, hence you see all the military US assests spread to the furthest flung places you can think of. 

Once the Cold War ended, then the calculus changed, and the US has slowly been shifting it's focus to the Asia-Pacific (even clearly wants out of the Middle East if it could too), especially China... so a lot of the old deal is starting to unravel as even the US can't be everywhere for everyone. 

Countries are going to have to choose again who they align with... and this is not just about Trump, it started a long while ago, look at how uninterested Obama was toward Europe, and even the UK, no trade deal with UK/EU, Biden the same even though he helped Ukraine (but that was more about weakening Russia than helping Europe). Trump has just really sped things up as the clock is ticking for him and he doesn't have much time to do what he wants to. I can even imagine a slow draw-down of US military personel in Europe soon too... maybe not the airpower so much, but the army maybe. Not saying who is right, but that seems to be what's happening.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Experts fear an influx of Chinese goods into Thailand as China redirects its exports.

USA will be watching for that move, if Thailand gets involved it will suffer greatly

[Purdey]

I watched a video of Republican president Ronald Reagan talking about tariffs. He seemed concerned about possible negative effects over the long term.

 

[thongplay]

3 hours ago, jimgilly said:

These are all self-inflcted wounds and they are not going to be fixed by the lunatics in charge of the country.  

 

First the US dismantled it's manufacturing base, became dependent on other countries to supply the goods they once made and now think they can reverse this and go back to where they were 30 plus years ago.  Not going to happen. 

 

Before this year is over, the US will be in total turmoil as other countries isolate it and find more secure options as they unite against a now bankrupt, dysfunctional "world power".   As the West goes down the East will rise.  End of story.

You may well be right. Trump blames 'cheap labour' for China's success, but have you seen their modern high-tech automated factories?

 

Nothing. like those in USA. (Except for Tesla). Never will be. Americans want a higher standard of living without earning it.

 

Also why don't countries buy American products? Because they're crap. Cars are still gas guzzlers and old technology (except Tesla) and foods are GM modified and unhealthy. Just look at the obese American population for proof. Who wants to eat like that?

[PuiPuiHarry]

7 hours ago, ChicagoExpat said:

I'm not a Trumpie, and understand that the smart people say tariffs are bad, but at the same time I don't know why any country should stand for a situation where there exports are taxed by a foreign country while they allow that same country to export to them duty-free. 

Every country needs income to pay their State bills. Many countries use income, VAT, company profit etc taxes + some import duty. In Thailand, the source of import duty is very important, as...other taxes are much more difficult to get in.

As far as I now, EXPORT tax is levies very seldon, but IMPORT tax often. So, when US goods to go TH, they are NOT taxed in the US as export, but info Thailand as Import. Same the other way round. When Trump, in is unendness and always 100% correct wisdom, decides to increase the IMPORT tax of Thai goods into the US, he hopes the next day the US is able to replace these import goods with domestic production, if companies have production facilities and -lines ready the next day. If not, the imported products will increase in price, at least the amount of import duty is levied on it, so Thai goods a + 37 % when inside the US.

I am sure, the pineapple etc production will be grown overnight, so for pineapple the US consumer will have not any disadvantage. ( of has to switch to US grown foods, which is already abundant, therefore no food imports ever into the US).

In this example, because Thai pineapple will be a lot more expensive, US consumer will buy less, and Thailand will export less to the US.

His Unendless Lying Wishdom forgets, other nations might react with IMPORT tariffs on US products into their countries. Second: when their income drops because of less exports to the US, they lack the money to pay for US products.

And maybe, as Thailand gets less revenues, they will levy a visa-amount , for instance: for every day an US citizen stays into Thailand, has to pay …  e.g. a 5000 THB to compensate their use of Thai legal system ( protection against robbery = police, law system), for the use of infrastructure ( roads, trains etc) and other Thai State costs.

[ericbj]

I am wondering to what extent these U.S. import tariffs will impact U.S. exports of imported goods.

Let me explain.
I recently purchased a very nice Trek bicycle delivered from the U.S. but manufactured in Cambodia.
Would the 47% tariff be applied to such a purchase when delivered to the U.S. prior to export from there?
Or would the goods be held in bonded warehouse until exported?
Or the tax reimbursed to the importer upon export?

 

One can understand Trump's desire to relocate manufacturing and jobs to the United States.  But his analysis is erroneous of why they were dis-located from the U.S. in the first place.  It was in the interests of major financial interests, abetted by the U.S. government.  And initially welcomed by many U.S. consumers who saw a reduction of prices without realising the ultimate price to be paid by the working man and woman.

There was an interesting interview by CBC News of Joseph Stiglitz on this question about a fortnight ago.  Can be found on YouTube.

Exporting countries will cease selling to U.S. markets if they cannot make a profit.  Which is perhaps the unstated intention.
Either tariffs will be paid by the consumer, or they will have to buy from American manufacturers, assuming their factories are capable of producing the goods, likely at higher cost.

Another economist, whose name escapes me for the moment, said (in an interview also published recently on YouTube) that many countries, notably developing nations, borrow dollars from US sources to finance their development.  These loans must be repaid in US dollars, both capital repayments and interest.  To have these dollars there must be an imbalance of trade with the U.S.in favour of the borrowing country.  Otherwise they will likely have to default on their loans.

If they cannot repay their loans, what action will the U.S. government take?
Write off the debts?
Or seize the country's assets?
(Look at what the E.U. and its French, German and Finnish banksters did to Greece)

Many of Trump's long-term goals may be valid, but his approach seems to be that of a "bull in a china shop"; creating resistance at every step.

We are entering uncharted waters.

 

[PuiPuiHarry]

2 hours ago, ericbj said:

I am wondering to what extent these U.S. import tariffs will impact U.S. exports of imported goods.

Let me explain.
I recently purchased a very nice Trek bicycle delivered from the U.S. but manufactured in Cambodia.
Would the 47% tariff be applied to such a purchase when delivered to the U.S. prior to export from there?
Or would the goods be held in bonded warehouse until exported?
Or the tax reimbursed to the importer upon export?

 

One can understand Trump's desire to relocate manufacturing and jobs to the United States.  But his analysis is erroneous of why they were dis-located from the U.S. in the first place.  It was in the interests of major financial interests, abetted by the U.S. government.  And initially welcomed by many U.S. consumers who saw a reduction of prices without realising the ultimate price to be paid by the working man and woman.

There was an interesting interview by CBC News of Joseph Stiglitz on this question about a fortnight ago.  Can be found on YouTube.

Exporting countries will cease selling to U.S. markets if they cannot make a profit.  Which is perhaps the unstated intention.
Either tariffs will be paid by the consumer, or they will have to buy from American manufacturers, assuming their factories are capable of producing the goods, likely at higher cost.

Another economist, whose name escapes me for the moment, said (in an interview also published recently on YouTube) that many countries, notably developing nations, borrow dollars from US sources to finance their development.  These loans must be repaid in US dollars, both capital repayments and interest.  To have these dollars there must be an imbalance of trade with the U.S.in favour of the borrowing country.  Otherwise they will likely have to default on their loans.

If they cannot repay their loans, what action will the U.S. government take?
Write off the debts?
Or seize the country's assets?
(Look at what the E.U. and its French, German and Finnish banksters did to Greece)

Many of Trump's long-term goals may be valid, but his approach seems to be that of a "bull in a china shop"; creating resistance at every step.

We are entering uncharted waters.

 

"Trump's desire to relocate manufacturing and jobs to the United States ": 

- Does the US has the labour force to fill all these new jobs, especially after kicking out many millions of 'dog eating thiefs, rapers" and other illigal immigrants ?

- Do these US citizens want to work for the tariffs workers get in the countries where so much imports into the US comes from / can develop lower costs production lines ? If...why not developed these decades ago ?

- Is the US able to build up so many production facilties and -lines to produce all these now imported products in a reasonable time ? Or will many wait till the next president election, after a 7, 11 or 13 years, when His Emperial Highness, Emperor Trump the First finally will resign ( reminding: it is His Unendlies Lyer, "grap them by the pussy" ( in any mnormal country, you would end up in prison), president of the USA, who asked the question in public if there shoud  be any other election of a US president anymore) ?

- How the US economy will develop, when many countries respond with also higher import duties on US products when entering their countries ? And worse: set up alternative ways of supply, so.. bye-bye to US supply for the coming decades ? Ask the US exporters to Canada about this.

Imagine, the world will levy 25% on Boeing and other US made commercial planes ? Airbus c.s. will grand a highest order medal to the US government.

 

Last-but-not-least: NO European bank was, is and will be able to seize Greek or any other nations assest in case of a default. I advise you to study that situation, in which the ECB offered all banks a payment of a 50 %, when they all accepted a 50 % haircut on their loans. This money was guaranteed by all EU national banks, as.. nobody could accept a downfall of Greece, and with that many loans of insurance companies, pension funds, investment banks etc. Only Dragi went far above his allowance, by using a Euro 750 BILLION guarantee. His bluff helped and.. was the cheapest possibility to restory confidende in the Euro.

[KireB]

6 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

The USA backed Thailand when Thailand was threatened with reparations for it's cooperation with Japan during WW2. The USA continued to support Thailand in the following years when the threat of a communist takeover was imminent. Now Thailand is cosying up to China and appears to have forgotten the long term friendship and support it has received from the USA. Not surprising Thailand was specifically mentioned as an offender in the tariff debate in the US, and has been hit hard accordingly. And there could be worse to come..

Thailand aided the US in its Commie hunt in Asia (Vietnam).

Tariffs don't happen overnight, its a slow and delicate negotiation process. By pulling the rug under the global economy, Trump is hurting his own middle and lower classes. I fail to understand that the MAGA people are cheering about this. A total economic paradigm shift is awaiting us, which could lead to war.  

[connda]

US Tariffs Threaten Thai Economy with B360bn Blow

 

How much of a "blow" were the 72% tariffs levies against US goods?  I'm not sympathetic.

[John Drake]

“What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.”--Lord Melbourne

[ericbj]

2 hours ago, PuiPuiHarry said:

"Trump's desire to relocate manufacturing and jobs to the United States ": 

- Does the US has the labour force to fill all these new jobs, especially after kicking out many millions of 'dog eating thiefs, rapers" and other illigal immigrants ?

- Do these US citizens want to work for the tariffs workers get in the countries where so much imports into the US comes from / can develop lower costs production lines ? If...why not developed these decades ago ?

- Is the US able to build up so many production facilties and -lines to produce all these now imported products in a reasonable time ? Or will many wait till the next president election, after a 7, 11 or 13 years, when His Emperial Highness, Emperor Trump the First finally will resign ( reminding: it is His Unendlies Lyer, "grap them by the pussy" ( in any mnormal country, you would end up in prison), president of the USA, who asked the question in public if there shoud  be any other election of a US president anymore) ?

- How the US economy will develop, when many countries respond with also higher import duties on US products when entering their countries ? And worse: set up alternative ways of supply, so.. bye-bye to US supply for the coming decades ? Ask the US exporters to Canada about this.

Imagine, the world will levy 25% on Boeing and other US made commercial planes ? Airbus c.s. will grand a highest order medal to the US government.

 

Last-but-not-least: NO European bank was, is and will be able to seize Greek or any other nations assest in case of a default. I advise you to study that situation, in which the ECB offered all banks a payment of a 50 %, when they all accepted a 50 % haircut on their loans. This money was guaranteed by all EU national banks, as.. nobody could accept a downfall of Greece, and with that many loans of insurance companies, pension funds, investment banks etc. Only Dragi went far above his allowance, by using a Euro 750 BILLION guarantee. His bluff helped and.. was the cheapest possibility to restory confidende in the Euro.

 

An interesting article on the Greek Debt Crisis :

https://econreview.studentorg.berkeley.edu/a-tale-of-two-countries-a-history-of-the-greek-debt-crisis/

But do not see much mention of the forced privatisation of Greek national assets.

 

[sammieuk1]

The impregnable impervious Baht has already kicked Trumpets Tariffs up the Harris by the look of it 🤔