How stupid is China for retaliating to Trumps tariffs?

[jas007]

21 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

This is the Oath of Office for US attorney general:

 

A. OATH OF OFFICE
I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic;
that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same;

that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion;

and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter.

 

So help me God. 

 

-- Not a lot of wiggle room to say you know something is wrong if not unlawful but you support it anyway 'Cause He's the Boss

 

 

 

 

Unlawful is one thing. Supporting the boss's position is something else again. As a practical matter, you support the administration's positions.  

 

In any event, that oath isn't just for members of the President's cabinet.  Go join the US Army and you'll take the same oath. 

[placeholder]

Just now, thesetat said:

 

You also seem to forget that many other countries who have unfair trade deals with the US are now willing to go to the negotiating table and strike a better deal. That means only Chinese products will be affected. Some prices will lower and some will raise and this is only speculation about rising costs. What is not speculation is that Trump has over 100 countries willing to negotiate a better trade deal. China is the only one fighting that. You can only guess how the public will perceive this. 

I do know the Dem press will only show the negative side to make it all bad on Trump. Avoiding the positive from the other 100 countries that we struck a better trade deal with. 

First off, you are assuming that being willing to go to the negotiating table means that they are willing to strike a better deal..And does a better deal mean no tariffs. So far Trump has insisted on a 10% tariff baseline. And the fact is  And your arithmetic is defective. You write that "many other countries" are willing to negotiate and then you leap to the conclusion that "only Chinese products will be affected".

Since when does "all countries" minus "many countries = no countries except for China?

And where did you come up with the fantasy that "only China is fighting that"?

[jerrymahoney]

26 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Unlawful is one thing. Supporting the boss's position is something else again.

Seems there have been plenty enough resignations already especially in the Dept. of Justice for persons being asked to do something they considered unlawful

[jas007]

10 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Seems there have been plenty enough resignations already especially in the Dept. of Justice for persons being asked to do something they considered unlawful

I'm sure they're following their conscience. Rightly or wrongly, they apparently thought that certain of their duties were unconstitutional.  

[jerrymahoney]

Rightly or wrongly, when a career prosecutor who was a law clerk for Antonin Scalia thinks so, that cannot be dismissed as your typical left-wing lawfare.

[candide]

34 minutes ago, thesetat said:

 

You also seem to forget that many other countries who have unfair trade deals with the US are now willing to go to the negotiating table and strike a better deal. That means only Chinese products will be affected. Some prices will lower and some will raise and this is only speculation about rising costs. What is not speculation is that Trump has over 100 countries willing to negotiate a better trade deal. China is the only one fighting that. You can only guess how the public will perceive this. 

I do know the Dem press will only show the negative side to make it all bad on Trump. Avoiding the positive from the other 100 countries that we struck a better trade deal with. 

Only if you believe what Trump said.

 

The current trade deals or the basic WTO regime are not particularly unfair to the U.S. The U.S. was also imposing tariffs on some products and also had non-tariff protections exactly like the other countries. Most of them, for example the EU, don't have the equivalent of the buy American act.

 

100 countries suddenly deciding to negotiate trade deals to abolish some tariffs is also propaganda. Most of them were already open to it before.

 

For example, the EU was negotiating the  TTIP with the Obama administration and it's Trump who torpedoed it. Asian countries currently targeted by Trump's tariffs also agreed to the TPP agreement pushed by Obama, and it's also Trump who withdraw from it.

 

Of course  China has often been cheating in one way or the other, we can all agree with that.

 

 

[Mattd]

On 4/14/2025 at 5:12 PM, jas007 said:

It's not Trump's supporters, it's the bond market and the banking system that is ultimately calling the shots.   And the bond market is already on life support .  

 

The final outome is still uncertain.

Finally someone with a sensible post!

The US bond market is in dire straits right now and if this collapses so does the US, bankruptcy would be inevitable.

Something that Trump likely didn't even consider, he'd want to hope that all the countries that can don't just want to cash in at the same time.

High US import tariffs on China and other countries exported goods in to the US will mean a huge shortage and a massive disturbance to the supply chain (remember Covid and the supply issues), especially for companies such as Boeing (who happen to be the biggest exporter in the US $ wise), the airspace industry is totally reliant on a global supply chain as are many many others.

Effectively this could cripple the likes of Boeing and many other industries in the US, you simply cannot replace the global supply chain overnight, it will take decades.

Airbus and Comac must be smiling right now!

 

[jerrymahoney]

A NY Times article 2 days ago on the precariousness of the bond market ended with this:

All of which leaves the world in a bewildering place. The old sanctuary (US Bond market) no longer seems so safe. Yet no other place looks immediately capable of standing in.

[jas007]

12 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

A NY Times article 2 days ago on the precariousness of the bond market ended with this:

All of which leaves the world in a bewildering place. The old sanctuary (US Bond market) no longer seems so safe. Yet no other place looks immediately capable of standing in.

I think that's the point.  Everyone knows what's going on, but in the real world, what's the alternative?  

 

Short term, the rest of the world can throw a fit. Or at least that's what the propaganda machine wants us to think, and that this fit will somehow force Trump's hand or wreck the bond market to a point where it collapses.  

But, despite Powell's public pronouncements, the Fed has Trump's back. Or rather, the Fed will step in to "buy it all" if the bond market freezes up. They've said as much on more than one occasion. So it's a question of whether the US Fed has the strength to outlast China's posturing. 

 

China is desperate. And despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to think, they are already in trouble, politically and economically. This nonsense will be over before you know it.

 

All bets are off if China goes to war.  I guess that'a district possibility. 

[jerrymahoney]

7 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I think that's the point.  Everyone knows what's going on, but in the real world, what's the alternative?  

OK.

[placeholder]

34 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I think that's the point.  Everyone knows what's going on, but in the real world, what's the alternative?  

 

Short term, the rest of the world can throw a fit. Or at least that's what the propaganda machine wants us to think, and that this fit will somehow force Trump's hand or wreck the bond market to a point where it collapses.  

But, despite Powell's public pronouncements, the Fed has Trump's back. Or rather, the Fed will step in to "buy it all" if the bond market freezes up. They've said as much on more than one occasion. So it's a question of whether the US Fed has the strength to outlast China's posturing. 

 

China is desperate. And despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to think, they are already in trouble, politically and economically. This nonsense will be over before you know it.

 

All bets are off if China goes to war.  I guess that'a district possibility. 

It's not about the bond market freezing up. It's about the high rate of interest that will have to be paid because of a lack of trust in the American government.

[steven100]

On 4/14/2025 at 8:45 AM, hotsun said:

Its pretty clear now that all trump wanted to do was put high tariffs on china. If china just had done nothing in response to trumps initial tariffs, maybe trump would have kept it low. But them retaliating only gave trump the excuse he needed to put tariffs on china that price them out of the US  market, losing them the american consumer

 

oopsie..maybe chinas not that smart

 

you haven't a clue really ... have you?    Xi Jinping has forgotten more about economics than Trump could ever know.

 

He's a hell of a lot smarter business man than Trump could ever be.

[Cameroni]

19 minutes ago, steven100 said:

 

you haven't a clue really ... have you?    Xi Jinping has forgotten more about economics than Trump could ever know.

 

He's a hell of a lot smarter business man than Trump could ever be.

 

Yeah, his corona policies were superb for business. Great business man that Xi Jinping.

 

Especially Shanghai doing great now.

 

 

[steven100]

6 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yeah, his corona policies were superb for business. Great business man that Xi Jinping.

 

Especially Shanghai doing great now.

 

 

Yeah,  Trump's a real good business man,  they've all done great 

 

now please crawl back into your MAGA hole until we call your name out .....   

[jas007]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

It's not about the bond market freezing up. It's about the high rate of interest that will have to be paid because of a lack of trust in the American government.

Jeez....

 

And how, exactly, will the bond market freeze up?  Because of interest rates that are too high. One thing causes the other. It doesn't get any simpler than that. I thought everyone realized that's how it works. I guess not. 

 

In any event, at some point, and no one yet knows what that point will be, the Fed will no longer be able to control what's happening. At current exchange rates, it would take about 41 trillion dollars to buy the US bond market.  All of it.  Of course, there are derivatives, which is another matter which adds another dimension entirely, and not in a good way, but even if we stick to the actual bond market, it's easy to see the problem. As the dollar weakens with increased borrowing and a loss of confidence in the dollar, the amount of dollars necessary to "buy it all" increases.  

 

Do you understand?  It's not a static situation. It's fluid, and it's just a question of how long it takes.  

 

Can the Fed hold out until China folds? My bet is yes, unless China goes to war in an act of desperation. 

[sharot724]

Tariffs and executive orders.

He has no leverage, like an authoritarian government will have no problem letting its people suffer. They could be a billion percent. The world is moving on without us. A lot of good people are going to be hurt, but a lot of <deleted>ty people are going to get hurt so I'm choosing a glass half full approach.

 

[sharot724]

Picture this waiting all night for phone to ring.

Elections have Consequences...

[sharot724]

BREAKING: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China says it won’t join trade talks with the US unless they shows respect.

Living in Asia and respect has great value