Report Thailand Eyes European Tourists Amid Asian Visitor Decline

[webfact]

Photo courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Thailand is grappling with a significant decline in tourist numbers, pushing the Tourism and Sports Ministry to task the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) with revamping its 2025 strategy.

 

The emphasis is to adjust foreign receipt targets from THB 2.3 trillion to THB 2 trillion due to a disappointing 17% drop in the Asian market in the first quarter. Despite this, international arrivals were up slightly by 2% year-on-year, with total revenues climbing 7% to THB 471 billion.

 

The slump in arrivals from key Asian markets such as China, Hong Kong, and South Korea, averaging a 17% decrease, has been attributed to declining safety confidence and reduced flights post-Songkran festival celebrations.

 

Natthriya Thaweevong, the ministry’s permanent secretary, announced that the revamped marketing plan should be ready by May to roll out in the latter half of the year. The focus will pivot from visitor numbers to spending potential, targeting high-spend long-haul markets instead.

 

 

 

With fluctuations in global economics due to US tariffs, the ministry sees potential in attracting more European tourists who might opt for Asian over American destinations.

 

Countries like Sweden, Saudi Arabia, Austria, and the UK, where tourists have a history of spending significantly during their visits, are highlighted as prime targets. The ministry is adjusting strategies to tap into these high-potential markets with bespoke tour packages.

 

Additionally, key performance indicators for TAT will now focus more on revenue generation from tourists rather than just increasing footfall, excluding the Chinese market which is set for a further decline.

 

Long-haul markets will see a benchmark of 2.0, reflecting a stronger emphasis on attracting high-spending tourists, while short-haul markets may be marked lower, aligning with their spending trends and durations of stay.

 

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post

 

-- 2025-04-22

 

 

[JoePai]

The pigeons are coming home to roost

[ikke1959]

No wonder tourists are not coming anymore.. It starts by entering the country already that you don't feel welcome.. Immigration Officers that hardly say a word to you or smile, Than there is the double pricing system and too expensive THB, and outdated laws for alcohol sales and use Not only between 14.00 and 17.00 but also for Buddhistic holidays, elections, etc, where most tourist have no clue of, They want to sit on the beach or on a terrace and have a beer or wine, but that is impossible. Than there is the vaping problem. Tourist are not allowed to vape, while many Thais are vaping.. The scams by taxis, the traffic accidents, and robberies nowadays and the RTP only chasing to fine foreigners.. Thailand is  not welcoming anymore.. I am sure I will get a post on this that it is better that I go back to my own country, if I don't like it here, and that is an example that many tourists experience too.. The welcoming attitude and the gratefulness for the choice for a holiday in Thailand is gone... Anutin and the Government have done this for years already and of course there will be always tourists in Thailand, but there is a big need of updating laws and rules. The latest as we all could read is that guiding is a protected occupation only for Thai people, but there almost no Thai that speak a foreign language and their English is often not very well.. But foreign guides are not allowed.. It are these things that keep tourists away too... Protection and double standards and outdated laws... Enter the 21st century and the tourists will come back, but it will take several years after you changed things

[BayArea]

What happened to the surge from last week????

[actonion]

To quote an Asian friend  & tourist who said , "Come once, that's enough

[MisterTee]

What about the initiative a few months back to promote tourism from Kazakhstan?

Did that end in failure?

And the bid to lure quality tourists from sub-Saharan Africa?

Is Europe the last port in the storm?

[Gottfrid]

So, we are welcome again! Hurray!

[smedly]

hate to say it but European tourist aren't that keen either and are in decline, Vietnam Cambodia Philippines are all becoming more popular while Thailand instead of improving is getting worse, from decreasing tourist safety to increasing violent crime it paints a very dim picture, not to mention the poor exchange rates with an over inflated baht. It's not as if Thailand is new to this tourism game, they have been at it for 30+ years - no excuse is there

[baansgr]

55 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

No wonder tourists are not coming anymore.. It starts by entering the country already that you don't feel welcome.. Immigration Officers that hardly say a word to you or smile, Than there is the double pricing system and too expensive THB, and outdated laws for alcohol sales and use Not only between 14.00 and 17.00 but also for Buddhistic holidays, elections, etc, where most tourist have no clue of, They want to sit on the beach or on a terrace and have a beer or wine, but that is impossible. Than there is the vaping problem. Tourist are not allowed to vape, while many Thais are vaping.. The scams by taxis, the traffic accidents, and robberies nowadays and the RTP only chasing to fine foreigners.. Thailand is  not welcoming anymore.. I am sure I will get a post on this that it is better that I go back to my own country, if I don't like it here, and that is an example that many tourists experience too.. The welcoming attitude and the gratefulness for the choice for a holiday in Thailand is gone... Anutin and the Government have done this for years already and of course there will be always tourists in Thailand, but there is a big need of updating laws and rules. The latest as we all could read is that guiding is a protected occupation only for Thai people, but there almost no Thai that speak a foreign language and their English is often not very well.. But foreign guides are not allowed.. It are these things that keep tourists away too... Protection and double standards and outdated laws... Enter the 21st century and the tourists will come back, but it will take several years after you changed things

There are plenty of foreign guides working illegally, almost everyday is on the news..

[baansgr]

6 minutes ago, smedly said:

hate to say it but European tourist aren't that keen either and are in decline, Vietnam Cambodia Philippines are all becoming more popular while Thailand instead of improving is getting worse, from decreasing tourist safety to increasing violent crime it paints a very dim picture, not to mention the poor exchange rates with an over inflated baht. It's not as if Thailand is new to this tourism game, they have been at it for 30+ years - no excuse is there

You can't deny, Thailand is still the best option, infrastructure, healthcare, ease of visa(except Cambodia), cost. I looked at PI a while back and it's just too much hassle and corruption. 

[Joseph98765]

it would be easier to find a solution for this people to ask us how to improve things instead of "now we want them to come but with our conditions"

[Patong2021]

Thailand has burnt alot of bridges to Europe and it still doesn't get it that the trend in Europe is to holidaying in  clean and safe  destinations.  This is why Japan is experiencing a tourism boom now.  Late Spring & Summer tourism season will start mid May and Europeans are not going to  SE Asia  for rainy season. They are going to  Canada and there is a trend to  visiting Australia and New Zealand.

 

Europeans at the minimum require the following;

- Access to clean air. Who wants to pay several thousand Euro to come and suffer air quality that is unsafe?

-Access to clean beaches. Thailand hasn't published beach water quality in years and we all know why.  Many beaches are tainted by  debris because there is no clean up.

- Access to honest  transportation. The  transport thugs in some regions like Phuket have had their way for years.

- Competitive airfares. There isn't much Thailand can do about that.

 

 

[Chris Daley]

We have the best restaurant in town! No English and smells of urine.  Dirty tables and it's next to a river of human feces.

[norsurin]

I guess next topic from TAT is that their going in 100% for India again.

[Tropicalevo]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

No wonder tourists are not coming anymore.. It starts by entering the country already that you don't feel welcome.. Immigration Officers that hardly say a word to you or smile, Than there is the double pricing system and too expensive THB, and outdated laws for alcohol sales and use Not only between 14.00 and 17.00 but also for Buddhistic holidays, elections, etc, where most tourist have no clue of, They want to sit on the beach or on a terrace and have a beer or wine, but that is impossible. Than there is the vaping problem. Tourist are not allowed to vape, while many Thais are vaping.. The scams by taxis, the traffic accidents, and robberies nowadays and the RTP only chasing to fine foreigners.. Thailand is  not welcoming anymore.. I am sure I will get a post on this that it is better that I go back to my own country, if I don't like it here, and that is an example that many tourists experience too.. The welcoming attitude and the gratefulness for the choice for a holiday in Thailand is gone... Anutin and the Government have done this for years already and of course there will be always tourists in Thailand, but there is a big need of updating laws and rules. The latest as we all could read is that guiding is a protected occupation only for Thai people, but there almost no Thai that speak a foreign language and their English is often not very well.. But foreign guides are not allowed.. It are these things that keep tourists away too... Protection and double standards and outdated laws... Enter the 21st century and the tourists will come back, but it will take several years after you changed things

 

You forgot to mention the stink of cannabis smoke from people smoking the illegal stuff.

[Jedi888]

MOT is pretty clueless in terms of DISPOSABLE income of countries' citizens.

All that hu-rah over bringing in Chinese as some kind of staple of grandeur spenders as good tourists for Thailand is a complete fallacy, for many reasons. I'll prove it.

Chinese are not rich like the facade seems to make people believe in TH or at the MOT. Gross capita is around $12000 a year. Also they are frugal as hell. They dont spend much. Other than true wealthy Chinese. Those are 6% of the population.

In past years, MOT and local business was seething at getting "all those richly Chinese" to come in and spend. Its a paper tiger folks!

Covid busted people left and right, destroyed capital and disposable income and vaxxes killed lots and maimed a bunch more globally. They aint gonna be travellin folks.

 

Chinese tourism to TH.

It's already been in the news the numbers are down. Either post covid cash strapped, Chinese being bitchy about whatever it was they were complaining about regarding TH or blah blah so they they went to Malaysia or some crap... but wait the tariff economic cascade effects to not only China but also to Thailand's factory and export section is JUST GETTING STARTED! That effect has barely started! So NOW-- Chinese in general, Mis YangYang and her tour group gang got no extra cash to travel for fun. There are millions of them off the table. A big vacuum of lost revenue for many areas of the tourism industry, from flights, hotel, transport, shopping, food. I read we are looking at Cn unemployed at 200 million people.

The MOT thinking Chinese are a great goose for tourism are HIGHLY ignorant and just DELUSIONAL.

Now with the US going back to big business and re-shoring... in the next decade it's going to be AMERCIANS who will be doing the travel. Starting learning English Mr. Somchai, and drop your mandarine classes. An economic earthquake just hit and aftershocks are a commin.

 

Cycles of economic downturn. I.e. 1997, 2008-09, 2020-2022, and now we are in an economic war/shakeup. Just when people were getting cocky recently thinking they were making ground and rebounding income after covid, tourists coming in etc. are gonna get smacked in the face now with this. Asia is not done with a beating. 2023-now was the "dead cat bounce".

 

Now the second shoe drops! Tarrifs on china now are causing so much damage and domino effect(already), downline it's going to burn a hole into the Chinas economy to the tune of around 800 billion $ a year. Thats how much money is MISSING from GDP. Waves of sweatshop bankruptcies are coming. Real estate will get the second shoe-drop kick in due time.

This is a must see report on consumer spending in China. You will see the country is a paper dragon and still a commie dump with low consumer spending.

 

Now if you pay close attention, you will see domino like effects which will hit their local econ, travelers, and also Asia as a whole because Asia is coupled allot. TH has lots of factories these days and you bet a huge hole is going to be burned in TH's pockets, which hits: spending, loans, mortgages, car loans, credit, capital, disposal spending, outdoor dining (already happening and we are just getting started with this second shoe to drop!), and as a whole, discretionary TRAVEL, REGIONWIDE. The post covid recovery is in essence a "dead cat bounce" look and feel. What is that? See attached, it's a phenomena which shows up on asset charts. It's a trap. a whipsaw. Economies can be put on charts and formations used to predict the future.

IF YOU ARE EXPOSED TO THE CHINA MARKET IN ANYWAY, BRACE FOR IMPACT... or be the latest dumb money statistic.

If you understand business economics, you will understand the cascade effect.

 

I am watching the Hong Kong real estate market closely. This will be a doozy to watch as it comes apart at the seems as post covid second-shoe drop kick in the a$$ is upon HK.

HK is full of smart ass mainlanders that buy property, keep them empty or rent them out. They think they are so cool and smart moving their capital there through the "real estate laundry" trick. "I so cool! I own property apartment Hong Kong! I so rich! I so statusly man! ha ha!!!"

Now that capital markets are going to get squeezed, business supply down-line chains going to get strained, you bet these smartasses in property are going to have to liquidate to free up cash. Worldwide btw. If capital markets get choked hard, and interest rates rise, oh sh*t, brace yourself. Distressed property sales in Hong Kong now were 40% of sales in Q4 of 2024! Wait, and we are not yet into the beginning of the tariff war bro...

 

HK rent rates are down now to 2016 levels... next stop on the chart for rents? 2008-09 prices!

 

Property smartasses are going to have it handed to them region wide! If tariffs in Cambodia and Viet continue this high, they are in for a big economic wide burned pocket hole too.

 

Then there is a 3rd generation effect on top of the above 1st and 2nd gen/wave effect, the region as a whole will have general economic over all effect downturn. Less money circulating.  A big giant vacuum sound.

 

Banks.

With a huge amount of capital NOT flowing around in Asia, 800Bil is going to go missing a year just from China--- which start at the top of the pyramid which is China factory and exports businesses/sectors, cash and capital is going to go away like low tide.

But wait, there's more folks. If you add in any other Asia countries for which the Trump tariffs will STILL APPLY due to NO DEAL in about 80 days from now, OR, if the TARIFFS ON THOSE NATIONS GO UP MORE, due to their attitude toward Washington, or retaliation (like Cn did), an exasperation effect occurs. Brace for impact! Chinas 800B hole + any other brat in Asia who does not conform will have their tariffs raise or hold the same, now the billions of $ of lost income from those, now have a whole new effect on the entire Asia coupled economy.. we are going to go north of 1 trillion a year is lost cash revenues spanning multiple industries, sectors blah blah, WHICH ALL HAVE THEIR OWN CASCADE EFFECTS INTO THEIR ECONOMIES.

Are you seeing the profound web dominoes now? Who in Asia is going to have tariffs and how much. Then see the total lost revenues, in the trillions of USD, then calculate your low tide from there, then cover yourself from exposure.

 

Boats will sit on the sea floor. That means, banks who have allot of loans, investments and dumb-money moves-- etc. are at risk! If they are over leveraged they can fail. Or they get bailed out with money printing and inflation skyrockets. I'm talking here in TH. The release value has to be something. Will BOT bail out a bunch of dumb ass money- banks?? This concept applies to most export driven countries in Asia. So watch out.

Interest rates. If banks get low on capital what do they do? Have to raise rates to get more cash liquidity. Whats the effect of that? Good for investors, but BAD for businesses who need loans and consumer spending, real estate etc. THAT will cause deflation and asset prices to go down. Release valve has to come from somewhere...

 

In 1997 the baht hit 55.8. 114% devaluation. It took time and work to dig out from under it. See chart attached. When things pop, they really pop. Now in TH, there are many many many more real estate owners, projects, businesses which use debt to expand, and a bunch of other smartass dumb money moguls which do not make contingency plans for storms. Look below. Did Thailand ever recover from 1997 in baht valuation terms? No. Baht was strong at 24, now it's still down, at 33. It never recovered purchasing power. As of today, baht is down 27.49% from 1997. Imagine... 28 years later and your savings is still down 27.5 %. In dollar terms, for what's that worth.

 

But in terms of GOLD since 1997, baht is down. So in real terms that matter, gold, from 97 you are down 90%. SO-- in real gold terms, Thai's have lost wealth at 3.214% per year since- on average. Thailand is getting poorer by that amount yearly. If they had gold there would be no loss. "cash is trash" as Grant Cardon says.

 

And finally, with these holes burned into many people's and businesses pockets, and profit margins, we are going to see waves of bankruptcies by facade businesses which are thin margin-ed, and run by idiots who have no "economic weatherproofing". in crude terms- called dumb money. Think of some smartass uneducated 24 year old Chinese women or Thai girl who thinks they are amazing business owners when they dont know squat about real economics, business, tariffs, foreign policy, currencies, etc  and cascading effect tidal waves heading for them now. Watch the movie The Big Short and see that even in banking, there is still lots of dumb money amongst "professionals" on Wall Street. Tell me how Jane/Joe Doe with her mid level business in Bangkok, or some 2nd tier business in any Asia city, who does not understand economics is going to weather the storm, rising interest rates, breaking suppliers, defaulting invoices (post credit pay) etc. is going to bail water when holes are popping up all over in supply chains, sales demand and all things considered. Taksin was right recently, 1997 is a tsunami and it's headed for us now.

 

Question is, can you hit the exit before a stampede?

When Thai's decide to sell their second Bangkok condo because "I hab no minnneyyy" 'its do late. real estate will have falling sales prices. It was already falling in 2017. How many more NEW condos hit the market since then? Supply is going higher diluting the older condo units' values already-. Defaults on loans will skyrocket in due time. Think dominos. Even rents will come down. Anyone investing the past 2 years are suckers and have been tricked by the dead cat bounce and are about to get "whipsawed" as they say on Wall Street.

 

Currency swings.

Dont let the dead cat bounce in the Thai Baht now fool you! If there is no amazing deal with Trump for tariffs and Thailand opening their markets FAIR to the US, all bets are off. Baht will go to 36-40 for a warm up set.

Baht is creating a giant triangle, and at the apex it blows up or down. Seeing macro trends and fundamentals here, baht is likely not going to rise against the dollar. What more investments from factories are going to come to Thailand this decade to offshore? Maybe Japanese. But the yen has gone down so much, Jpn's cant do much intl expansion as is so much more expensive for them now to covert yen to other currencies. See attachment. Offshoring to Asia is going to slow. Baht price target for a triangle break out at apex is 42.7/USD, a technical analysis.

 

[JimHuaHin]

European tourists generally consult the news - eg English/German/etc. language press about Thailand.

 

European tourists generally research potential tourist destinations.

 

European tourists generally plan ahead.

 

European tourists are aware of Thailand's great support for Ukraine at the UN and Thailand's boycotts and sanctions against Putin and Russia.

[engamann]

4 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

No wonder tourists are not coming anymore.. It starts by entering the country already that you don't feel welcome.. Immigration Officers that hardly say a word to you or smile, Than there is the double pricing system and too expensive THB, and outdated laws for alcohol sales and use Not only between 14.00 and 17.00 but also for Buddhistic holidays, elections, etc, where most tourist have no clue of, They want to sit on the beach or on a terrace and have a beer or wine, but that is impossible. Than there is the vaping problem. Tourist are not allowed to vape, while many Thais are vaping.. The scams by taxis, the traffic accidents, and robberies nowadays and the RTP only chasing to fine foreigners.. Thailand is  not welcoming anymore.. I am sure I will get a post on this that it is better that I go back to my own country, if I don't like it here, and that is an example that many tourists experience too.. The welcoming attitude and the gratefulness for the choice for a holiday in Thailand is gone... Anutin and the Government have done this for years already and of course there will be always tourists in Thailand, but there is a big need of updating laws and rules. The latest as we all could read is that guiding is a protected occupation only for Thai people, but there almost no Thai that speak a foreign language and their English is often not very well.. But foreign guides are not allowed.. It are these things that keep tourists away too... Protection and double standards and outdated laws... Enter the 21st century and the tourists will come back, but it will take several years after you changed things

You nailed it , been living here for 20 years and the change in Thailand have gone from tourist been a good thing and most of the Thais smile at you and treat you nice but today so many Thais working in the tourist industry are extremely rude and bad talking you as soon as they can , if I didn't have family here I would have recollect to another country already.

[Captor]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Photo courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Thailand is grappling with a significant decline in tourist numbers, pushing the Tourism and Sports Ministry to task the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) with revamping its 2025 strategy.

 

The emphasis is to adjust foreign receipt targets from THB 2.3 trillion to THB 2 trillion due to a disappointing 17% drop in the Asian market in the first quarter. Despite this, international arrivals were up slightly by 2% year-on-year, with total revenues climbing 7% to THB 471 billion.

 

The slump in arrivals from key Asian markets such as China, Hong Kong, and South Korea, averaging a 17% decrease, has been attributed to declining safety confidence and reduced flights post-Songkran festival celebrations.

 

Natthriya Thaweevong, the ministry’s permanent secretary, announced that the revamped marketing plan should be ready by May to roll out in the latter half of the year. The focus will pivot from visitor numbers to spending potential, targeting high-spend long-haul markets instead.

 

 

 

With fluctuations in global economics due to US tariffs, the ministry sees potential in attracting more European tourists who might opt for Asian over American destinations.

 

Countries like Sweden, Saudi Arabia, Austria, and the UK, where tourists have a history of spending significantly during their visits, are highlighted as prime targets. The ministry is adjusting strategies to tap into these high-potential markets with bespoke tour packages.

 

Additionally, key performance indicators for TAT will now focus more on revenue generation from tourists rather than just increasing footfall, excluding the Chinese market which is set for a further decline.

 

Long-haul markets will see a benchmark of 2.0, reflecting a stronger emphasis on attracting high-spending tourists, while short-haul markets may be marked lower, aligning with their spending trends and durations of stay.

 

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post

 

-- 2025-04-22

 

 

Fix the PM2.5 issue and the tax for foreign income and it will come more Europeans.

[Maxbkkcm]

15 hours ago, smedly said:

hate to say it but European tourist aren't that keen either and are in decline, Vietnam Cambodia Philippines are all becoming more popular while Thailand instead of improving is getting worse, from decreasing tourist safety to increasing violent crime it paints a very dim picture, not to mention the poor exchange rates with an over inflated baht. It's not as if Thailand is new to this tourism game, they have been at it for 30+ years - no excuse is there

How do you explain the increase of crimes? 5 year ago it was safe. I still feel safe here. 

[Maxbkkcm]

15 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Thailand has burnt alot of bridges to Europe and it still doesn't get it that the trend in Europe is to holidaying in  clean and safe  destinations.  This is why Japan is experiencing a tourism boom now.  Late Spring & Summer tourism season will start mid May and Europeans are not going to  SE Asia  for rainy season. They are going to  Canada and there is a trend to  visiting Australia and New Zealand.

 

Europeans at the minimum require the following;

- Access to clean air. Who wants to pay several thousand Euro to come and suffer air quality that is unsafe?

-Access to clean beaches. Thailand hasn't published beach water quality in years and we all know why.  Many beaches are tainted by  debris because there is no clean up.

- Access to honest  transportation. The  transport thugs in some regions like Phuket have had their way for years.

- Competitive airfares. There isn't much Thailand can do about that.

 

 

But europeans are broke. Inflation they cant afford australia or Japan. Its finish now and in future tourism will stop. They struggle to buy groceries in europe. 

[Maxbkkcm]

12 hours ago, Jedi888 said:

MOT is pretty clueless in terms of DISPOSABLE income of countries' citizens.

All that hu-rah over bringing in Chinese as some kind of staple of grandeur spenders as good tourists for Thailand is a complete fallacy, for many reasons. I'll prove it.

Chinese are not rich like the facade seems to make people believe in TH or at the MOT. Gross capita is around $12000 a year. Also they are frugal as hell. They dont spend much. Other than true wealthy Chinese. Those are 6% of the population.

In past years, MOT and local business was seething at getting "all those richly Chinese" to come in and spend. Its a paper tiger folks!

Covid busted people left and right, destroyed capital and disposable income and vaxxes killed lots and maimed a bunch more globally. They aint gonna be travellin folks.

 

Chinese tourism to TH.

It's already been in the news the numbers are down. Either post covid cash strapped, Chinese being bitchy about whatever it was they were complaining about regarding TH or blah blah so they they went to Malaysia or some crap... but wait the tariff economic cascade effects to not only China but also to Thailand's factory and export section is JUST GETTING STARTED! That effect has barely started! So NOW-- Chinese in general, Mis YangYang and her tour group gang got no extra cash to travel for fun. There are millions of them off the table. A big vacuum of lost revenue for many areas of the tourism industry, from flights, hotel, transport, shopping, food. I read we are looking at Cn unemployed at 200 million people.

The MOT thinking Chinese are a great goose for tourism are HIGHLY ignorant and just DELUSIONAL.

Now with the US going back to big business and re-shoring... in the next decade it's going to be AMERCIANS who will be doing the travel. Starting learning English Mr. Somchai, and drop your mandarine classes. An economic earthquake just hit and aftershocks are a commin.

 

Cycles of economic downturn. I.e. 1997, 2008-09, 2020-2022, and now we are in an economic war/shakeup. Just when people were getting cocky recently thinking they were making ground and rebounding income after covid, tourists coming in etc. are gonna get smacked in the face now with this. Asia is not done with a beating. 2023-now was the "dead cat bounce".

 

Now the second shoe drops! Tarrifs on china now are causing so much damage and domino effect(already), downline it's going to burn a hole into the Chinas economy to the tune of around 800 billion $ a year. Thats how much money is MISSING from GDP. Waves of sweatshop bankruptcies are coming. Real estate will get the second shoe-drop kick in due time.

This is a must see report on consumer spending in China. You will see the country is a paper dragon and still a commie dump with low consumer spending.

 

Now if you pay close attention, you will see domino like effects which will hit their local econ, travelers, and also Asia as a whole because Asia is coupled allot. TH has lots of factories these days and you bet a huge hole is going to be burned in TH's pockets, which hits: spending, loans, mortgages, car loans, credit, capital, disposal spending, outdoor dining (already happening and we are just getting started with this second shoe to drop!), and as a whole, discretionary TRAVEL, REGIONWIDE. The post covid recovery is in essence a "dead cat bounce" look and feel. What is that? See attached, it's a phenomena which shows up on asset charts. It's a trap. a whipsaw. Economies can be put on charts and formations used to predict the future.

IF YOU ARE EXPOSED TO THE CHINA MARKET IN ANYWAY, BRACE FOR IMPACT... or be the latest dumb money statistic.

If you understand business economics, you will understand the cascade effect.

 

I am watching the Hong Kong real estate market closely. This will be a doozy to watch as it comes apart at the seems as post covid second-shoe drop kick in the a$$ is upon HK.

HK is full of smart ass mainlanders that buy property, keep them empty or rent them out. They think they are so cool and smart moving their capital there through the "real estate laundry" trick. "I so cool! I own property apartment Hong Kong! I so rich! I so statusly man! ha ha!!!"

Now that capital markets are going to get squeezed, business supply down-line chains going to get strained, you bet these smartasses in property are going to have to liquidate to free up cash. Worldwide btw. If capital markets get choked hard, and interest rates rise, oh sh*t, brace yourself. Distressed property sales in Hong Kong now were 40% of sales in Q4 of 2024! Wait, and we are not yet into the beginning of the tariff war bro...

 

HK rent rates are down now to 2016 levels... next stop on the chart for rents? 2008-09 prices!

 

Property smartasses are going to have it handed to them region wide! If tariffs in Cambodia and Viet continue this high, they are in for a big economic wide burned pocket hole too.

 

Then there is a 3rd generation effect on top of the above 1st and 2nd gen/wave effect, the region as a whole will have general economic over all effect downturn. Less money circulating.  A big giant vacuum sound.

 

Banks.

With a huge amount of capital NOT flowing around in Asia, 800Bil is going to go missing a year just from China--- which start at the top of the pyramid which is China factory and exports businesses/sectors, cash and capital is going to go away like low tide.

But wait, there's more folks. If you add in any other Asia countries for which the Trump tariffs will STILL APPLY due to NO DEAL in about 80 days from now, OR, if the TARIFFS ON THOSE NATIONS GO UP MORE, due to their attitude toward Washington, or retaliation (like Cn did), an exasperation effect occurs. Brace for impact! Chinas 800B hole + any other brat in Asia who does not conform will have their tariffs raise or hold the same, now the billions of $ of lost income from those, now have a whole new effect on the entire Asia coupled economy.. we are going to go north of 1 trillion a year is lost cash revenues spanning multiple industries, sectors blah blah, WHICH ALL HAVE THEIR OWN CASCADE EFFECTS INTO THEIR ECONOMIES.

Are you seeing the profound web dominoes now? Who in Asia is going to have tariffs and how much. Then see the total lost revenues, in the trillions of USD, then calculate your low tide from there, then cover yourself from exposure.

 

Boats will sit on the sea floor. That means, banks who have allot of loans, investments and dumb-money moves-- etc. are at risk! If they are over leveraged they can fail. Or they get bailed out with money printing and inflation skyrockets. I'm talking here in TH. The release value has to be something. Will BOT bail out a bunch of dumb ass money- banks?? This concept applies to most export driven countries in Asia. So watch out.

Interest rates. If banks get low on capital what do they do? Have to raise rates to get more cash liquidity. Whats the effect of that? Good for investors, but BAD for businesses who need loans and consumer spending, real estate etc. THAT will cause deflation and asset prices to go down. Release valve has to come from somewhere...

 

In 1997 the baht hit 55.8. 114% devaluation. It took time and work to dig out from under it. See chart attached. When things pop, they really pop. Now in TH, there are many many many more real estate owners, projects, businesses which use debt to expand, and a bunch of other smartass dumb money moguls which do not make contingency plans for storms. Look below. Did Thailand ever recover from 1997 in baht valuation terms? No. Baht was strong at 24, now it's still down, at 33. It never recovered purchasing power. As of today, baht is down 27.49% from 1997. Imagine... 28 years later and your savings is still down 27.5 %. In dollar terms, for what's that worth.

 

But in terms of GOLD since 1997, baht is down. So in real terms that matter, gold, from 97 you are down 90%. SO-- in real gold terms, Thai's have lost wealth at 3.214% per year since- on average. Thailand is getting poorer by that amount yearly. If they had gold there would be no loss. "cash is trash" as Grant Cardon says.

 

And finally, with these holes burned into many people's and businesses pockets, and profit margins, we are going to see waves of bankruptcies by facade businesses which are thin margin-ed, and run by idiots who have no "economic weatherproofing". in crude terms- called dumb money. Think of some smartass uneducated 24 year old Chinese women or Thai girl who thinks they are amazing business owners when they dont know squat about real economics, business, tariffs, foreign policy, currencies, etc  and cascading effect tidal waves heading for them now. Watch the movie The Big Short and see that even in banking, there is still lots of dumb money amongst "professionals" on Wall Street. Tell me how Jane/Joe Doe with her mid level business in Bangkok, or some 2nd tier business in any Asia city, who does not understand economics is going to weather the storm, rising interest rates, breaking suppliers, defaulting invoices (post credit pay) etc. is going to bail water when holes are popping up all over in supply chains, sales demand and all things considered. Taksin was right recently, 1997 is a tsunami and it's headed for us now.

 

Question is, can you hit the exit before a stampede?

When Thai's decide to sell their second Bangkok condo because "I hab no minnneyyy" 'its do late. real estate will have falling sales prices. It was already falling in 2017. How many more NEW condos hit the market since then? Supply is going higher diluting the older condo units' values already-. Defaults on loans will skyrocket in due time. Think dominos. Even rents will come down. Anyone investing the past 2 years are suckers and have been tricked by the dead cat bounce and are about to get "whipsawed" as they say on Wall Street.

 

Currency swings.

Dont let the dead cat bounce in the Thai Baht now fool you! If there is no amazing deal with Trump for tariffs and Thailand opening their markets FAIR to the US, all bets are off. Baht will go to 36-40 for a warm up set.

Baht is creating a giant triangle, and at the apex it blows up or down. Seeing macro trends and fundamentals here, baht is likely not going to rise against the dollar. What more investments from factories are going to come to Thailand this decade to offshore? Maybe Japanese. But the yen has gone down so much, Jpn's cant do much intl expansion as is so much more expensive for them now to covert yen to other currencies. See attachment. Offshoring to Asia is going to slow. Baht price target for a triangle break out at apex is 42.7/USD, a technical analysis.

 

China is the future dude. The europeans and americans are done. They all broke now with inflation.

 

china is innovating, they make lots of sale of EV byd. Dji brands is top quality.

 

the future is in asia. The west is finished. 
 

they innovate, have good reputable brands and they work hard. 

[Maxbkkcm]

12 hours ago, Jedi888 said:

MOT is pretty clueless in terms of DISPOSABLE income of countries' citizens.

All that hu-rah over bringing in Chinese as some kind of staple of grandeur spenders as good tourists for Thailand is a complete fallacy, for many reasons. I'll prove it.

Chinese are not rich like the facade seems to make people believe in TH or at the MOT. Gross capita is around $12000 a year. Also they are frugal as hell. They dont spend much. Other than true wealthy Chinese. Those are 6% of the population.

In past years, MOT and local business was seething at getting "all those richly Chinese" to come in and spend. Its a paper tiger folks!

Covid busted people left and right, destroyed capital and disposable income and vaxxes killed lots and maimed a bunch more globally. They aint gonna be travellin folks.

 

Chinese tourism to TH.

It's already been in the news the numbers are down. Either post covid cash strapped, Chinese being bitchy about whatever it was they were complaining about regarding TH or blah blah so they they went to Malaysia or some crap... but wait the tariff economic cascade effects to not only China but also to Thailand's factory and export section is JUST GETTING STARTED! That effect has barely started! So NOW-- Chinese in general, Mis YangYang and her tour group gang got no extra cash to travel for fun. There are millions of them off the table. A big vacuum of lost revenue for many areas of the tourism industry, from flights, hotel, transport, shopping, food. I read we are looking at Cn unemployed at 200 million people.

The MOT thinking Chinese are a great goose for tourism are HIGHLY ignorant and just DELUSIONAL.

Now with the US going back to big business and re-shoring... in the next decade it's going to be AMERCIANS who will be doing the travel. Starting learning English Mr. Somchai, and drop your mandarine classes. An economic earthquake just hit and aftershocks are a commin.

 

Cycles of economic downturn. I.e. 1997, 2008-09, 2020-2022, and now we are in an economic war/shakeup. Just when people were getting cocky recently thinking they were making ground and rebounding income after covid, tourists coming in etc. are gonna get smacked in the face now with this. Asia is not done with a beating. 2023-now was the "dead cat bounce".

 

Now the second shoe drops! Tarrifs on china now are causing so much damage and domino effect(already), downline it's going to burn a hole into the Chinas economy to the tune of around 800 billion $ a year. Thats how much money is MISSING from GDP. Waves of sweatshop bankruptcies are coming. Real estate will get the second shoe-drop kick in due time.

This is a must see report on consumer spending in China. You will see the country is a paper dragon and still a commie dump with low consumer spending.

 

Now if you pay close attention, you will see domino like effects which will hit their local econ, travelers, and also Asia as a whole because Asia is coupled allot. TH has lots of factories these days and you bet a huge hole is going to be burned in TH's pockets, which hits: spending, loans, mortgages, car loans, credit, capital, disposal spending, outdoor dining (already happening and we are just getting started with this second shoe to drop!), and as a whole, discretionary TRAVEL, REGIONWIDE. The post covid recovery is in essence a "dead cat bounce" look and feel. What is that? See attached, it's a phenomena which shows up on asset charts. It's a trap. a whipsaw. Economies can be put on charts and formations used to predict the future.

IF YOU ARE EXPOSED TO THE CHINA MARKET IN ANYWAY, BRACE FOR IMPACT... or be the latest dumb money statistic.

If you understand business economics, you will understand the cascade effect.

 

I am watching the Hong Kong real estate market closely. This will be a doozy to watch as it comes apart at the seems as post covid second-shoe drop kick in the a$$ is upon HK.

HK is full of smart ass mainlanders that buy property, keep them empty or rent them out. They think they are so cool and smart moving their capital there through the "real estate laundry" trick. "I so cool! I own property apartment Hong Kong! I so rich! I so statusly man! ha ha!!!"

Now that capital markets are going to get squeezed, business supply down-line chains going to get strained, you bet these smartasses in property are going to have to liquidate to free up cash. Worldwide btw. If capital markets get choked hard, and interest rates rise, oh sh*t, brace yourself. Distressed property sales in Hong Kong now were 40% of sales in Q4 of 2024! Wait, and we are not yet into the beginning of the tariff war bro...

 

HK rent rates are down now to 2016 levels... next stop on the chart for rents? 2008-09 prices!

 

Property smartasses are going to have it handed to them region wide! If tariffs in Cambodia and Viet continue this high, they are in for a big economic wide burned pocket hole too.

 

Then there is a 3rd generation effect on top of the above 1st and 2nd gen/wave effect, the region as a whole will have general economic over all effect downturn. Less money circulating.  A big giant vacuum sound.

 

Banks.

With a huge amount of capital NOT flowing around in Asia, 800Bil is going to go missing a year just from China--- which start at the top of the pyramid which is China factory and exports businesses/sectors, cash and capital is going to go away like low tide.

But wait, there's more folks. If you add in any other Asia countries for which the Trump tariffs will STILL APPLY due to NO DEAL in about 80 days from now, OR, if the TARIFFS ON THOSE NATIONS GO UP MORE, due to their attitude toward Washington, or retaliation (like Cn did), an exasperation effect occurs. Brace for impact! Chinas 800B hole + any other brat in Asia who does not conform will have their tariffs raise or hold the same, now the billions of $ of lost income from those, now have a whole new effect on the entire Asia coupled economy.. we are going to go north of 1 trillion a year is lost cash revenues spanning multiple industries, sectors blah blah, WHICH ALL HAVE THEIR OWN CASCADE EFFECTS INTO THEIR ECONOMIES.

Are you seeing the profound web dominoes now? Who in Asia is going to have tariffs and how much. Then see the total lost revenues, in the trillions of USD, then calculate your low tide from there, then cover yourself from exposure.

 

Boats will sit on the sea floor. That means, banks who have allot of loans, investments and dumb-money moves-- etc. are at risk! If they are over leveraged they can fail. Or they get bailed out with money printing and inflation skyrockets. I'm talking here in TH. The release value has to be something. Will BOT bail out a bunch of dumb ass money- banks?? This concept applies to most export driven countries in Asia. So watch out.

Interest rates. If banks get low on capital what do they do? Have to raise rates to get more cash liquidity. Whats the effect of that? Good for investors, but BAD for businesses who need loans and consumer spending, real estate etc. THAT will cause deflation and asset prices to go down. Release valve has to come from somewhere...

 

In 1997 the baht hit 55.8. 114% devaluation. It took time and work to dig out from under it. See chart attached. When things pop, they really pop. Now in TH, there are many many many more real estate owners, projects, businesses which use debt to expand, and a bunch of other smartass dumb money moguls which do not make contingency plans for storms. Look below. Did Thailand ever recover from 1997 in baht valuation terms? No. Baht was strong at 24, now it's still down, at 33. It never recovered purchasing power. As of today, baht is down 27.49% from 1997. Imagine... 28 years later and your savings is still down 27.5 %. In dollar terms, for what's that worth.

 

But in terms of GOLD since 1997, baht is down. So in real terms that matter, gold, from 97 you are down 90%. SO-- in real gold terms, Thai's have lost wealth at 3.214% per year since- on average. Thailand is getting poorer by that amount yearly. If they had gold there would be no loss. "cash is trash" as Grant Cardon says.

 

And finally, with these holes burned into many people's and businesses pockets, and profit margins, we are going to see waves of bankruptcies by facade businesses which are thin margin-ed, and run by idiots who have no "economic weatherproofing". in crude terms- called dumb money. Think of some smartass uneducated 24 year old Chinese women or Thai girl who thinks they are amazing business owners when they dont know squat about real economics, business, tariffs, foreign policy, currencies, etc  and cascading effect tidal waves heading for them now. Watch the movie The Big Short and see that even in banking, there is still lots of dumb money amongst "professionals" on Wall Street. Tell me how Jane/Joe Doe with her mid level business in Bangkok, or some 2nd tier business in any Asia city, who does not understand economics is going to weather the storm, rising interest rates, breaking suppliers, defaulting invoices (post credit pay) etc. is going to bail water when holes are popping up all over in supply chains, sales demand and all things considered. Taksin was right recently, 1997 is a tsunami and it's headed for us now.

 

Question is, can you hit the exit before a stampede?

When Thai's decide to sell their second Bangkok condo because "I hab no minnneyyy" 'its do late. real estate will have falling sales prices. It was already falling in 2017. How many more NEW condos hit the market since then? Supply is going higher diluting the older condo units' values already-. Defaults on loans will skyrocket in due time. Think dominos. Even rents will come down. Anyone investing the past 2 years are suckers and have been tricked by the dead cat bounce and are about to get "whipsawed" as they say on Wall Street.

 

Currency swings.

Dont let the dead cat bounce in the Thai Baht now fool you! If there is no amazing deal with Trump for tariffs and Thailand opening their markets FAIR to the US, all bets are off. Baht will go to 36-40 for a warm up set.

Baht is creating a giant triangle, and at the apex it blows up or down. Seeing macro trends and fundamentals here, baht is likely not going to rise against the dollar. What more investments from factories are going to come to Thailand this decade to offshore? Maybe Japanese. But the yen has gone down so much, Jpn's cant do much intl expansion as is so much more expensive for them now to covert yen to other currencies. See attachment. Offshoring to Asia is going to slow. Baht price target for a triangle break out at apex is 42.7/USD, a technical analysis.

 

If what you claim is true how do you explain that Asia is booming? New condos, new cars, many own expensive smartphones. They eat out, travel. Everybody said Asia is the future.

 

look at entertainement KPOP is leading. Lisa is a star. 
 

they are leading the trend and the world 

[daveAustin]

4 hours ago, Maxbkkcm said:

China is the future dude. The europeans and americans are done. They all broke now with inflation.

 

china is innovating, they make lots of sale of EV byd. Dji brands is top quality.

 

the future is in asia. The west is finished. 
 

they innovate, have good reputable brands and they work hard. 

😂

Innovate = Copyright 

[BritManToo]

20 hours ago, smedly said:

hate to say it but European tourist aren't that keen either and are in decline, Vietnam Cambodia Philippines are all becoming more popular while Thailand instead of improving is getting worse, from decreasing tourist safety to increasing violent crime it paints a very dim picture, not to mention the poor exchange rates with an over inflated baht. It's not as if Thailand is new to this tourism game, they have been at it for 30+ years - no excuse is there

Thailand make is more difficult for foreign tourists to come.

And are then surprised when less come!

 

When I think back to 2009 when I first came .........

Posted off for a 1 year Non-O, with a cheque for 120GBP (Birmingham consulate), over 50 reason to stay, want to look around Thailand. Passport returned within 5 days.

[proton]

It's been over rated for a long time

[morrobay]

6 hours ago, Maxbkkcm said:

If what you claim is true how do you explain that Asia is booming? New condos, new cars, many own expensive smartphones. They eat out, travel. Everybody said Asia is the future.

 

look at entertainement KPOP is leading. Lisa is a star. 
 

they are leading the trend and the world 

Yes how do you explain this @Jedi888

[morrobay]