Xi Jinping is not satisfied with winning the trade war

[Andre0720]

On 4/25/2025 at 11:56 AM, LosLobo said:

 

 

Since the Democratic party under Biden was terrified of even attempting trade negotiations and possible conflict, let alone a war, might just bring it in the scope of the topic.

[jas007]

13 hours ago, placeholder said:

In the 60's people were still mocking japan in the same way you are now mocking China, Just like them,, you are living in the past. China has an extremely advanced industrial base which makes lots of intermediate inputs crucial for American manufacturers.

 

Tariffs on Chinese-made machinery drive up costs for U.S. manufacturers
The U.S. economy depends on Chinese tools needed to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories...

Trump claims that his trade policies are necessary to seed a “golden age” of U.S. manufacturing, but trade experts and companies say the broad tariffs may actually complicate bringing back some industries. The U.S. economy not only is reliant on China for finished products like toys and laptops but also depends on Chinese tools to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories.

https://archive.ph/D0vmQ

 

China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War

China’s secret weapon in the trade war is an army of factory robots, powered by artificial intelligence, that have revolutionized manufacturing.

Factories are being automated across China at a breakneck pace. With engineers and electricians tending to fleets of robots, these operations are bringing down the cost of manufacturing while improving quality.

As a result, China’s factories will be able to keep the price of many of its exports lower, giving it an advantage in fighting the trade war and President Trump’s high tariffs.

https://archive.ph/gA65L

 

The United States has trade leverage with China, but not as much as Washington thinks

The United States has diversified its imports away from China for low value-added goods such as bedding, mattresses, and furniture. But diversification is proving far harder for higher value-added goods.

To understand why the incoming Trump administration is going to face a dilemma on how to execute its new tariffs, see our analysis on the top goods the United States is importing from China:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/sinographs/the-united-states-has-trade-leverage-with-china-but-not-as-much-as-washington-thinks/

 

New Study Shows China Leading in Dozens of Critical Technologies

China has surged ahead of America in 37 of 44 categories of critical technologies, a comprehensive new report finds, and in some cases China is approaching a near-dominant position in that technology. American policymakers at all levels need to act quickly upon these findings, as China’s technology gains could fundamentally shift geopolitical power and influence to the authoritarian nation and away from the United States.

The report, published by the respected Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), examined 2.2 million data points for nine strategically important technology categories. China has significant leads in advanced materials and manufacturing, energy, biotechnology, sensors, and certain elements of artificial intelligence (AI), while the United States leads in design and development of advanced microchips, quantum computing, and vaccines. The countries are roughly tied in the defense/space category.

https://americanedgeproject.org/new-study-shows-china-leading-in-dozens-of-critical-technologies/

 

 

China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War

China’s secret weapon in the trade war is an army of factory robots, powered by artificial intelligence, that have revolutionized manufacturing.

Factories are being automated across China at a breakneck pace. With engineers and electricians tending to fleets of robots, these operations are bringing down the cost of manufacturing while improving quality.

As a result, China’s factories will be able to keep the price of many of its exports lower, giving it an advantage in fighting the trade war and President Trump’s high tariffs.

https://archive.ph/gA65L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's all very nice.  But so what?  

 

This discussion is about the political and economic collapse of China.  And, unfortunately for Xi, that may well happen long before any of these technical advantages and other "advantages" make any difference.  Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies.  All are significant, long term, but before "long term" happens, Xi will be finished or will agree to aa deal. China has a big and prosperous middle class. They've done well over the past decades.  And you can bet that they won't sit idly by as their source of income dries up as Chinese factories close down, one by one.  

 

The Chinese manufacturing capacity is huge. Large enough to supply the entire world with capacity to spare.  But even before this tariff war with the US, the Chinese economy was in trouble.  Their real estate market has collapsed.  Mortgage lenders and banks are either on life support or have closed.  Factories were already underutilized and closing. The shutdown COVID had taken its toll.  And now, a tariff war?  LOL

 

We're already seeing some weakening. China has lowered its tariffs on some sectors.  And despite the propaganda, you can bet Chinese negotiators are talking to American negotiators.  Unless you believe in the tooth fairy and other such nonsense, you have to believe that negotiations are ongoing. 

 

Remember, the world will be unable to function without trade between the USA and China.  And so a deal will happen, Sooner, rather than later, in my opinion.  It won't take long. 

[jas007]

14 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Lol. And that’s why Trump has removed the tariffs for about 40% of its imports from China and talking about lowering tariffs for the rest. Look around your own house and see where the stuff you have are made.

 

Boy, are some people dumb.

I'm well aware of where all my "junk" was made.  Everything currently on my desk was made in China, with the exception, perhaps, of the Clorets Mini-Mints, and I'm not even sure about those.  But keep in mind, no one needs to go out and buy a new phone or a new computer today, tomorrow or even this year.  I keep my equipment updated, for sure, but that's a personal choice and I can afford it.  In the US, I have a friend that has been using the same MacBook Air since 2014.  No one needs new stuff on a regular basis. 

 

And so you may think China has n advantage, but they don't. really, over the short to intermediate term.  This situation will unfold quicker than that. 

[sandyf]

On 4/25/2025 at 11:55 AM, Harrisfan said:

More bs. China exports more to the US than the other way.

Doesn't that rely on the response of US consumers?

Continuing to buy products that may no longer be available, and if available,  continuing to buy at a higher price.

 

The "bs" is continually referring to now obsolete historical data.

 

Only the delusional can think that Asian manufacturing can be brought into the US and goods continue to be sold at pre trade war prices. The policy makes everyone a loser.

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, jas007 said:

 It really is that simple.  Without the American consumer, China will fall apart, sooner rather than later. 

The Chinese civilisation has been around for something like 5000 years.

What makes a country that has never been a civilisation think they can bring that to an end.

[jas007]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The Chinese civilisation has been around for something like 5000 years.

What makes a country that has never been a civilisation think they can bring that to an end.

China has been around for thousands of years and I'm sure it will continue to exist for thousands more.  What may fall apart is its current government  Government's come and go all the time, right?  The civilization remains, but with a new government.  

[Tug]

1 hour ago, jas007 said:

China has been around for thousands of years and I'm sure it will continue to exist for thousands more.  What may fall apart is its current government  Government's come and go all the time, right?  The civilization remains, but with a new government.  

I dono XI has a lot of power to quell any serious unrest in my humble opinion I think he’s going to let America stew awhile with empty shelves,that will be like throwing gas on the inflation fire…..thus making trump shall we say more amenable…..elections have consequences it’s time folks flush!twice it’s a big one!!

[jas007]

14 minutes ago, Tug said:

I dono XI has a lot of power to quell any serious unrest in my humble opinion I think he’s going to let America stew awhile with empty shelves,that will be like throwing gas on the inflation fire…..thus making trump shall we say more amenable…..elections have consequences it’s time folks flush!twice it’s a big one!!

We shall see. I only hope Trump doesn't fold too soon. He really doesn't have to, and China is his one big concern.  Nor re-election, certainly.  Just China. 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, jas007 said:

That's all very nice.  But so what?  

 

This discussion is about the political and economic collapse of China.  And, unfortunately for Xi, that may well happen long before any of these technical advantages and other "advantages" make any difference.  Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies.  All are significant, long term, but before "long term" happens, Xi will be finished or will agree to aa deal. China has a big and prosperous middle class. They've done well over the past decades.  And you can bet that they won't sit idly by as their source of income dries up as Chinese factories close down, one by one.  

 

The Chinese manufacturing capacity is huge. Large enough to supply the entire world with capacity to spare.  But even before this tariff war with the US, the Chinese economy was in trouble.  Their real estate market has collapsed.  Mortgage lenders and banks are either on life support or have closed.  Factories were already underutilized and closing. The shutdown COVID had taken its toll.  And now, a tariff war?  LOL

 

We're already seeing some weakening. China has lowered its tariffs on some sectors.  And despite the propaganda, you can bet Chinese negotiators are talking to American negotiators.  Unless you believe in the tooth fairy and other such nonsense, you have to believe that negotiations are ongoing. 

 

Remember, the world will be unable to function without trade between the USA and China.  And so a deal will happen, Sooner, rather than later, in my opinion.  It won't take long. 

 

I think you overlooked this one:

 

Tariffs on Chinese-made machinery drive up costs for U.S. manufacturers
The U.S. economy depends on Chinese tools needed to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories...

Trump claims that his trade policies are necessary to seed a “golden age” of U.S. manufacturing, but trade experts and companies say the broad tariffs may actually complicate bringing back some industries. The U.S. economy not only is reliant on China for finished products like toys and laptops but also depends on Chinese tools to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories.

https://archive.ph/D0vmQ

[Tug]

10 minutes ago, jas007 said:

We shall see. I only hope Trump doesn't fold too soon. He really doesn't have to, and China is his one big concern.  Nor re-election, certainly.  Just China. 

Ahh he’s allready lying about negotiations with China…….i think he’s origami allready lol 😂 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, jas007 said:

That's all very nice.  But so what?  

 

This discussion is about the political and economic collapse of China.  And, unfortunately for Xi, that may well happen long before any of these technical advantages and other "advantages" make any difference.  Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies.  All are significant, long term, but before "long term" happens, Xi will be finished or will agree to aa deal. China has a big and prosperous middle class. They've done well over the past decades.  And you can bet that they won't sit idly by as their source of income dries up as Chinese factories close down, one by one.  

 

The Chinese manufacturing capacity is huge. Large enough to supply the entire world with capacity to spare.  But even before this tariff war with the US, the Chinese economy was in trouble.  Their real estate market has collapsed.  Mortgage lenders and banks are either on life support or have closed.  Factories were already underutilized and closing. The shutdown COVID had taken its toll.  And now, a tariff war?  LOL

 

We're already seeing some weakening. China has lowered its tariffs on some sectors.  And despite the propaganda, you can bet Chinese negotiators are talking to American negotiators.  Unless you believe in the tooth fairy and other such nonsense, you have to believe that negotiations are ongoing. 

 

Remember, the world will be unable to function without trade between the USA and China.  And so a deal will happen, Sooner, rather than later, in my opinion.  It won't take long. 

And there's also this:

America Inc. Slashes Spending as Tariff Uncertainty Swirls

CEOs are pausing travel, delaying construction projects and slowing hiring in response to tariffs and cloudy economic forecasts; a bid to ‘control the controllables’

The unpredictability of President Trump’s stop-start trade offensive is paralyzing companies on just about every front except one—taking an ax to costs. The chemical company Dow is delaying construction of a new plant. Boston Scientific, the medical-device maker, is speeding up efforts to cut discretionary spending including travel.

https://archive.ph/sgRQd

[jas007]

52 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

I think you overlooked this one:

 

Tariffs on Chinese-made machinery drive up costs for U.S. manufacturers
The U.S. economy depends on Chinese tools needed to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories...

Trump claims that his trade policies are necessary to seed a “golden age” of U.S. manufacturing, but trade experts and companies say the broad tariffs may actually complicate bringing back some industries. The U.S. economy not only is reliant on China for finished products like toys and laptops but also depends on Chinese tools to make everything from cars to electronics in American factories.

https://archive.ph/D0vmQ

"Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies. "

 

I didn't miss anything.  

 

Sure, manufacturers may face difficulties, but that's more of a long term complication. And certainly, China isn't the only country manufacturing tools for industry.  In fact, in  the world of high precision CNC machines, they lag behind significantly.  Less than 10% of the high end CNC machines in use in China are actually made in China.  The rest are imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA. 

 

Take a look, sometime, at the typical CNC machine shop operating in the USA. The percentage of CNC machines made in China is relatively low. China is not known for making machines capable of high-end precision machine work.  Such equipment is made in the USA, Switzerland, Japan, and Germany, primarily. Chinese machines are used primarily for low to mid range applications not requiring great accuracy.  As I've said, even in China they primarily use CNC machines imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA for high-end work.  

 

The bottom line:  a trade embargo won't bring US manufacturing to a screeching halt.  Not by a long shot. 

 

 

[jas007]

41 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And there's also this:

America Inc. Slashes Spending as Tariff Uncertainty Swirls

CEOs are pausing travel, delaying construction projects and slowing hiring in response to tariffs and cloudy economic forecasts; a bid to ‘control the controllables’

The unpredictability of President Trump’s stop-start trade offensive is paralyzing companies on just about every front except one—taking an ax to costs. The chemical company Dow is delaying construction of a new plant. Boston Scientific, the medical-device maker, is speeding up efforts to cut discretionary spending including travel.

https://archive.ph/sgRQd

Sure. There will be uncertainty for a while. That's part and parcel of the process. Businesses don't know what to do. Totally understandable. But I think this will all be over long before a halt in spending by some companies causes a fatal problem for the economy.  

 

Take a look at what happened during COVID. They shut everything down for two years or more.  The entire country on lockdown, more or less. The Fed printed money, people spent money, and everyone lived to tell the tale. The Fed can do that again, if necessary.  A stupid thing to do, maybe, but they can do it, for sure.  It'll take a while for the resulting inflation to kick in, and in the meantime, this tariff nonsense will be solved with a deal. 

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, jas007 said:

China has been around for thousands of years and I'm sure it will continue to exist for thousands more.  What may fall apart is its current government  Government's come and go all the time, right?  The civilization remains, but with a new government.  

Everyone knows what government is falling apart.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, jas007 said:

"Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies. "

 

I didn't miss anything.  

 

Sure, manufacturers may face difficulties, but that's more of a long term complication. And certainly, China isn't the only country manufacturing tools for industry.  In fact, in  the world of high precision CNC machines, they lag behind significantly.  Less than 10% of the high end CNC machines in use in China are actually made in China.  The rest are imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA. 

 

Take a look, sometime, at the typical CNC machine shop operating in the USA. The percentage of CNC machines made in China is relatively low. China is not known for making machines capable of high-end precision machine work.  Such equipment is made in the USA, Switzerland, Japan, and Germany, primarily. Chinese machines are used primarily for low to mid range applications not requiring great accuracy.  As I've said, even in China they primarily use CNC machines imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA for high-end work.  

 

The bottom line:  a trade embargo won't bring US manufacturing to a screeching halt.  Not by a long shot. 

 

 

 

In which case - assuming US manufacturers don't have a monopoly on a particular type of CNC machine or component(s) - China will simply substitute European and Japanese-made products for US-made products.

 

In such a scenario, there may be short-term supply issues and an increase in product prices, but I guess that these types of products are not purchased every day, so it shouldn't affect the individual Chinese company too much in the MT/LT. It seems to me that, at an aggregated level, the biggest loser in this scenario is likely to be the US manufacturing as it loses both market share and revenue.

[sandyf]

On 4/25/2025 at 11:55 AM, Harrisfan said:

More bs. China exports more to the US than the other way.

 

Currently, the number of freight vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles is on track to be down by 31 percent for the week ending May 10 compared with the previous year, according to the ship tracking site Port Optimizer.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-china-tradewar-tariffs-empty-shelves-b2739686.html#comments-area

[mrwebb8825]

On 4/24/2025 at 10:12 PM, Harrisfan said:

Typical spin from the media. Career liars and fools.

 

 

Yep, they DO earn their reputations.

 

[Felton Jarvis]

On 4/25/2025 at 10:12 AM, Harrisfan said:

Typical spin from the media. Career liars and fools.

 

 

As an American with a forty-year background in media, your statement is completely insane. We were taught to get both sides of a story and bias was forbidden and could get you fired. I challenge you to PROVE that media has spun ANYTHING to do with this story.

[AndreasHG]

1 hour ago, Felton Jarvis said:

As an American with a forty-year background in media, your statement is completely insane. We were taught to get both sides of a story and bias was forbidden and could get you fired. I challenge you to PROVE that media has spun ANYTHING to do with this story.

 

That was then. In today's America social media feed people with s**t they end up believing.

Harrisfan is a typical product of X Corp. (née Twitter). He and his ilk are products that will cost America dearly, not realizing how brainless, zealot and manipulated they are.

Social media have made mainstream what was once the preserve of sectarian, fanatical, antisocial and marginalized groups: indoctrination.

 

I am proud to say that I still pay for most of the information I read, and have no X account. In exchange for my money I demand to get quality information (starting from having access to "both sides of the story").

[Felton Jarvis]

2 hours ago, AndreasHG said:

 

That was then. In today's America social media feed people with s**t they end up believing.

Harrisfan is a typical product of X Corp. (née Twitter). He and his ilk are products that will cost America dearly, not realizing how brainless, zealot and manipulated they are.

Social media have made mainstream what was once the preserve of sectarian, fanatical, antisocial and marginalized groups: indoctrination.

 

I am proud to say that I still pay for most of the information I read, and have no X account. In exchange for my money I demand to get quality information (starting from having access to "both sides of the story").

Social media and corporate and public media are entirely different entities. Again, I challenge anyone to prove bias on NPR (public) and CNN (corporate). Fox News has done a marvelous hatchet job on MSNBC and CNN. They seem to play it straight down the middle without commentary or bias. If you don't have solid examples, don't even THINK of challenging my contention of fair play by corporate media.  Media was never meant to be a cheering section for politicians.

[Tug]

5 minutes ago, Felton Jarvis said:

Social media and corporate and public media are entirely different entities. Again, I challenge anyone to prove bias on NPR (public) and CNN (corporate). Fox News has done a marvelous hatchet job on MSNBC and CNN. They seem to play it straight down the middle without commentary or bias. If you don't have solid examples, don't even THINK of challenging my contention of fair play by corporate media.  Media was never meant to be a cheering section for politicians.

Have you witnessed/watched any of those trump White House grovel fest/ meetings?to any American no matter what party that should be cause for deep concern.thats not service to the nation…..thats serving a mentally ill demigod.scary stuff!!

[candide]

On 4/28/2025 at 7:49 AM, jas007 said:

"Robots, technical advances, increased costs for American companies. "

 

I didn't miss anything.  

 

Sure, manufacturers may face difficulties, but that's more of a long term complication. And certainly, China isn't the only country manufacturing tools for industry.  In fact, in  the world of high precision CNC machines, they lag behind significantly.  Less than 10% of the high end CNC machines in use in China are actually made in China.  The rest are imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA. 

 

Take a look, sometime, at the typical CNC machine shop operating in the USA. The percentage of CNC machines made in China is relatively low. China is not known for making machines capable of high-end precision machine work.  Such equipment is made in the USA, Switzerland, Japan, and Germany, primarily. Chinese machines are used primarily for low to mid range applications not requiring great accuracy.  As I've said, even in China they primarily use CNC machines imported from Japan, Europe, and the USA for high-end work.  

 

The bottom line:  a trade embargo won't bring US manufacturing to a screeching halt.  Not by a long shot. 

 

 

One of the best brands of CNC machines is Trumpf! 

(No joke)

[johng]

5 minutes ago, Felton Jarvis said:

I challenge anyone to prove bias on NPR (public) and CNN

 

Just a very glaring example

 

[Felton Jarvis]

A difference of opinion on an OPINION program,NOT a newscast. Where is the "glaring" bias?  Your example has no legs or logic.

[jas007]

2 hours ago, AndreasHG said:

I am proud to say that I still pay for most of the information I read, and have no X account. In exchange for my money I demand to get quality information (starting from having access to "both sides of the story").

So, who do you pay for all this "information"?  Do you have a Bloomberg Terminal? 

 

Having access to both sides of the story is great, if you can actually get it.  I wouldn't be so proud, though, of not having an X account.  What are you afraid of?  That you might encounter a little bit of the truth now and then?  

 

X accounts are free.  If you have such an open mind, why not read what people have to say?  Or, if you want, you can only read what people you "follow" have to say.  Pretty simple.  You can both have an X account and insulate yourself from reading anything from anyone who might not agree with you.  

[johng]

7 minutes ago, Felton Jarvis said:

A difference of opinion on an OPINION program,NOT a newscast.

 

Joe Rogan confronted CNN's Dr Sanya Gupta about the lies spread on CNN about him taking "livestock medication"  watch the video and pay attention.

[Felton Jarvis]

4 minutes ago, johng said:

 

Joe Rogan confronted CNN's Dr Sanya Gupta about the lies spread on CNN about him taking "livestock medication"  watch the video and pay attention.

Watched the video, paid rapt attention and STILL noted that this is an OPINION program. When I was in media, we were told to leave our political ideology at the door. I gathered, wrote and presented straight news, NOT opinion or hearsay. Our most frequent problem was getting "no comment" responses from Republicans, who then complained loudly of "bias" when we only gave reactions from the opposing side. Surely you realize that media cannot FORCE newsmakers to comment. We just report, we don't indulge in advocacy. To a Trump supporter, there is only THEIR side of the story, no other.

[johng]

6 minutes ago, Felton Jarvis said:

Watched the video, paid rapt attention and STILL noted that this is an OPINION program.

 

I am talking about the fact that CNN lied about Rogan taking livestock medication

that is not an opinion its a fact   watch the video again if you have not worked that out yet   here he introduces a clip from CNN itself.

 

[MicroB]

On 4/28/2025 at 3:02 AM, jas007 said:

I'm well aware of where all my "junk" was made.  Everything currently on my desk was made in China, with the exception, perhaps, of the Clorets Mini-Mints, and I'm not even sure about those.  But keep in mind, no one needs to go out and buy a new phone or a new computer today, tomorrow or even this year.  I keep my equipment updated, for sure, but that's a personal choice and I can afford it.  In the US, I have a friend that has been using the same MacBook Air since 2014.  No one needs new stuff on a regular basis. 

 

And so you may think China has n advantage, but they don't. really, over the short to intermediate term.  This situation will unfold quicker than that. 

 

In the first quarter of this year, for the first time, China exported more medical instruments to the US, than it imported from the US. Yes, China has been, until recently, a new importer of US medical equipment.

 

Hospitals do need to be buy new stuff. Lots of if, all the time. In manufacturing, the Japanese Just-in-time approach is pretty much universally adopted. US factories have finely tuned supply chains, based on years of trust between companies, where the selection of suppliers is really driven by the needs of the shareholders for a return on their investment. Supply chains cannot be be updated overnight. Ask the Brits about how Brexit worked out, with MINI, Ineos, Honda production. And now Nissan's Sunderland plant is called, by Nissan, no economically viable, largely because of the overnight tariffs that came in during 20-21.

 

Globalisation existed 1870-1913. pax Britannica kept a lid on anything major. John Bull's Britain became an imporrer of Argentinian beef. The decent kids toys were made in Germany. 1914-1945, the world went Protectionist. There was no Pax. Since 1945, the world went back to being globalist, with China and India joining in in the 1970s. Pax Americana kept a lid of anything big. The war in Ukraine is a reminder that all the little conflicts 1945-2020 involving the West were comparatively skirmishes, 20th/21st Century equivalents of taking on the Fuzzy Wuzzies at Omderman. 21st Century war can get a LOT bigger. Now we are all going protectionist again.

 

Imagine being middle aged in 1914, and not knowing then that pretty much your entire life is ruined. Your sons might be off to war, never coming back, your lifelong savings wiped out. Of course you didn't know the future in 1914. All you knew was how good life had been for the last 20-30 years, and be thinking why would anyone want to change that.

[jas007]

10 minutes ago, MicroB said:

 

In the first quarter of this year, for the first time, China exported more medical instruments to the US, than it imported from the US. Yes, China has been, until recently, a new importer of US medical equipment.

 

Hospitals do need to be buy new stuff. Lots of if, all the time. In manufacturing, the Japanese Just-in-time approach is pretty much universally adopted. US factories have finely tuned supply chains, based on years of trust between companies, where the selection of suppliers is really driven by the needs of the shareholders for a return on their investment. Supply chains cannot be be updated overnight. Ask the Brits about how Brexit worked out, with MINI, Ineos, Honda production. And now Nissan's Sunderland plant is called, by Nissan, no economically viable, largely because of the overnight tariffs that came in during 20-21.

 

Globalisation existed 1870-1913. pax Britannica kept a lid on anything major. John Bull's Britain became an imporrer of Argentinian beef. The decent kids toys were made in Germany. 1914-1945, the world went Protectionist. There was no Pax. Since 1945, the world went back to being globalist, with China and India joining in in the 1970s. Pax Americana kept a lid of anything big. The war in Ukraine is a reminder that all the little conflicts 1945-2020 involving the West were comparatively skirmishes, 20th/21st Century equivalents of taking on the Fuzzy Wuzzies at Omderman. 21st Century war can get a LOT bigger. Now we are all going protectionist again.

 

Imagine being middle aged in 1914, and not knowing then that pretty much your entire life is ruined. Your sons might be off to war, never coming back, your lifelong savings wiped out. Of course you didn't know the future in 1914. All you knew was how good life had been for the last 20-30 years, and be thinking why would anyone want to change that.

Not too many people have a crystal ball, and certainly not me.  

 

In understand all about the complexity of supply chains and the difficulties involved in undoing what was assembled over a period of decades.  I guess my main point is that China is on a short fuse.  The propaganda would have us believe otherwise, but I don't think they can outlast the US Fed, and, so long as Trump doesn't reverse course, he's on a winning path.