It's already getting ugly in China.

[jas007]

51 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

There is no tariff on exports, but Amazon is not the best choice for Thai delivery

For sure.  But sometimes, I can find exactly what I want without having to fool around too much, so I may pay a little extra.  But, as another poster has said, a lot of the stuff is probably made in China, so until this tariff thing is settled, ordering products made in China from the USA Amazon might not be such a good idea.

[GanDoonToonPet]

The Chinese leaders can bluster all they like but the 100 million members of the CCP aren't too happy about losing their biggest customer. Also, don't forget the 'peasants revolt' when Omicron hit China and their strict testing / lockdown regime became unworkable.

[jas007]

19 minutes ago, GanDoonToonPet said:

The Chinese leaders can bluster all they like but the 100 million members of the CCP aren't too happy about losing their biggest customer. Also, don't forget the 'peasants revolt' when Omicron hit China and their strict testing / lockdown regime became unworkable.

Sooner or later, "the people" reach a breaking point.  That seems to be a point many here fail to acknowledge. 

[cjinchiangrai]

2 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Sooner or later, "the people" reach a breaking point.  That seems to be a point many here fail to acknowledge. 

The US will face uprisings well before China.

[jas007]

14 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

The US will face uprisings well before China.

I don't think so. Why would that be the case?

 

Trump's tariffs may well result in more inflation and higher prices, but the Fed can and will print whatever money is necessary to keep the credit markets alive. That's a given. That's policy. Inflation will result, but that effect is not instantaneous.  

 

Will store shelves soon be empty?  Of junk from China, perhaps, but so what?  I think that food will still be available. People can wait to buy new junk.  No one is going to riot because they can't buy new Barbie Dolls or new appliances. 

 

Anyway, the people forecasting trouble don't see trouble happening for six weeks or so.  By then, China will be in big trouble, politically.  

 

So long as Trump stays the course, he wins. 

 

 

 

[cjinchiangrai]

10 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I don't think so. Why would that be the case?

 

Trump's tariffs may well result in more inflation and higher prices, but the Fed can and will print whatever money is necessary to keep the credit markets alive. That's a given. That's policy. Inflation will result, but that effect is not instantaneous.  

 

Will store shelves soon be empty?  Of junk from China, perhaps, but so what?  I think that food will still be available. People can wait to buy new junk.  No one is going to riot because they can't buy new Barbie Dolls or new appliances. 

 

Anyway, the people forecasting trouble don't see trouble happening for six weeks or so.  By then, China will be in big trouble, politically.  

 

So long as Trump stays the course, he wins. 

So you never took an Econ class.

[jas007]

12 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

So you never took an Econ class.

Let me guess.  You think I'm the one that doesn't understand economics?  

 

Why don't you enlighten everyone?  We'll wait. 

[cjinchiangrai]

8 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Let me guess.  You think I'm the one that doesn't understand economics?  

 

Why don't you enlighten everyone?  We'll wait. 

No problem, China has all the manufacturing and plenty of money. The workforce is well educated and generally happy. Losing the US market hurts but it is only 375 million consumers, they still have the other7.5 billion.

 

The US, on the other hand, is being driven into the ground by a sociopathic moron, all to suck up to Putin.

[GanDoonToonPet]

19 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

No problem, China has all the manufacturing and plenty of money. The workforce is well educated and generally happy. Losing the US market hurts but it is only 375 million consumers, they still have the other7.5 billion.

 

The Evergrande property crisis leading to low investment, 17% youth unemployment and a population bomb with a very short fuse...not the best time to lose your best 375 million customers.

[jas007]

42 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

No problem, China has all the manufacturing and plenty of money. The workforce is well educated and generally happy. Losing the US market hurts but it is only 375 million consumers, they still have the other7.5 billion.

 

The US, on the other hand, is being driven into the ground by a sociopathic moron, all to suck up to Putin.

To be sure, China has enough manufacturing capacity to supply Planet Earth with capacity to spare. As for plenty of "money"?  They have a central bank and can print money, as can the US Federal Reserve. Just yesterday they lowered rates and decided to print more. They also have US bonds as part of their reserve, but weaponizing those would be counterproductive. A well educated and generally happy workforce?  Perhaps. I'm afraid, however, that you don't understand the importance of the US market and why its importance isn't strictly a matter of the number of consumers in the USA vs the number of consumers in the world. Things aren't so simple. 

 

In any event, politics and economics are intertwined. They always are. And in this case, the importance of the US dollar as the world reserve currency cannot be emphasized enough.  It's a political weapon and it works. 

 

The stage is set. The actors are Xi and Trump.  One is on shaky political grounds and has little time to spare before the wheels to his economy start falling off.  Without the US market, it all comes to a halt, sooner rather than later. Trump, on the other hand, has the US Federal Reserve backing him up, not necessarily because that's what they want to do, but because it's what they will do to protect the credit markets.  And the Fed can print all the money it wants with much of the resulting inflation exported abroad. One of the benefits of having the world reserve currency.  Is there a limit to that strategy?  Sure, but that limit will not be reached before China has to fold.  

 

Whether or not the US is being "driven into the ground" because Trump wants to "suck up to Putin" is irrelevant to the more immediate outcome. 

 

The upshot:  Trump will get at least some that he wants.  Neither side may be entirely happy, but that's usually how deals work, right?

 

Time will tell.  I think I'm right, but I could be wrong. 

[Sir Dude]

China is in trouble, but mainly internally due to the CCP's decisions, not Trump or Tariffs etc., although they are the icing on the cake. China has started to implode because of the CCP's and Xi's decisions regarding control freakery on everything... and it all started with their disasterous Covid policy, politicizing of busnesses by requiring every company board has a party political Kommissar member to monitor compliance etc.

On top of that Chinese people are being told Moaist stuff like "eat bitterness" and the youth are "lying flat" or "letting it rot" as they believe they have no future... this has all started since Xi took over, was never like this before. 

The rich in china are also fleeing with their money. People think it's the bad orange man, but no, it's not, it's the CCP and it's awful policies... even look at military officers in the PLA etc., they have to spend 40-50% of their time studying complete nonsense like "Xi Jinping thought" and such complete BS instead of military tactics.... all about control at ant cost.

[cjinchiangrai]

We will see, China moves slowly and Trump is in much bigger trouble politically.  Currently, next year looks like a GQP bloodbath.

[ThreeCardMonte]

6 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

A suit is underway in Federal Court claiming that the Trump tariff is unlawful under the IEEPA.

As to what if any attention the Chinese are paying to that, I have never seen any reference.
 

 

One can’t make this shi- up.

A suit by who?

 

Another leftist nut job or organization.

 

First it was the POTUS can’t remove illegal alien terrorist gang bangers.

 

Now he can’t issue tariffs.

 

Another chapter in the lefts LAWFARE 2.0.  1.0 was a failure.

[BangkokReady]

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

How is it 'already getting ugly', when negotiation of any trade deal hasn't even started, per NYT link above

 

Why would negotiations need to be underway for things to be getting ugly?  The OP is saying that things are turning ugly in China, not in any kind of negotiations.

 

Perhaps you should re-read the OP.

[ThreeCardMonte]

6 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Worrying times indeed for China.

 

https://asiatimes.com/2025/05/chinas-economy-on-cusp-of-a-deflationary-death-spiral/#

 

Trump's tariffs have come at a terrible time for our Chinese friends and partners. 

“Trump's tariffs have come at a terrible time for our Chinese friends and partners.”

 

Biden’s friend and partner.

[TedG]

22 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

We will see, China moves slowly and Trump is in much bigger trouble politically.  Currently, next year looks like a GQP bloodbath.

What is GQP?

[jas007]

20 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

We will see, China moves slowly and Trump is in much bigger trouble politically.  Currently, next year looks like a GQP bloodbath.

Traditionally, China may move "slowly," as you say, but right now, they may not have that luxury.  As for Trump and the midterms?  This thing will be over long before the midterms. 

 

Trump's big focus is on China, and he thinks tariffs are the way to go.  I'm not so sure he's going to flip flop quite so soon. 

[ThreeCardMonte]

2 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

The US will face uprisings well before China.

They have already begun by the left.

 

Just look at Tesla.

[jerrymahoney]

10 minutes ago, ThreeCardMonte said:

7 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

A suit is underway in Federal Court claiming that the Trump tariff is unlawful under the IEEPA.

As to what if any attention the Chinese are paying to that, I have never seen any reference.
 

One can’t make this shi- up.

A suit by who?

 

Another leftist nut job or organization.

No -- a suit by a right wing conservative legal firm with connection to Leonard Leo who orchestrated the appointment and confirmation of Trump's 3 Supreme Court appointments first term.

 

Their website comment on the case:

 

 President Trump’s tariffs may be new—no president has ever claimed the power to levy tariffs under IEEPA before—but the executive branch claiming power it doesn’t rightly have isn’t. We’ve been suing to stop it for decades.

[KhunLA]

10 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

 

Why would negotiations need to be underway for things to be getting ugly?  The OP is saying that things are turning ugly in China, not in any kind of negotiations.

 

Perhaps you should re-read the OP.

If you would read my replies, then you'd understand what I stated,  and your reply wouldn't be necessary.

 

Asking a question I already answered.   OP's link doesn't show any 'ugliness' or protests.  How you don't understand, as with most things posted ... falls under 'fake new / op-ed' 

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

How is it 'already getting ugly', when negotiation of any trade deal hasn't even started, per NYT link above 

 

OP's link is nothing  more than Op-ed that states nothing of substance, no real source of info.  I don't see any protest, just people standing around or working.  No dating of even those depictions.

 

[ThreeCardMonte]

I mentioned in other threads China will come to the table.

 

Time and patience.

 

They need us more than we need them.

 

Trump has the upper hand.  He’s playing Three Card Monte with China (no pun intended)

 

They can’t win…lol.

 

Art Of The Deal.

[cjinchiangrai]

14 minutes ago, ThreeCardMonte said:

“Trump's tariffs have come at a terrible time for our Chinese friends and partners.”

 

Biden’s friend and partner.

Bidens friends making red hats and giving Ivanka patents.

[ThreeCardMonte]

9 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

No -- a suit by a right wing conservative legal firm with connection to Leonard Leo who orchestrated the appointment and confirmation of Trump's 3 Supreme Court appointments first term.

 

Their website comment on the case:

 

 President Trump’s tariffs may be new—no president has ever claimed the power to levy tariffs under IEEPA before—but the executive branch claiming power it doesn’t rightly have isn’t. We’ve been suing to stop it for decades.

I’m surprised.

 

I was thinking this is something Liz Cheney would dream up.

 

Strange how this lawsuit was never implemented before under different Presidents.  I suppose LAWFARE wasn’t an issue then under normal circumstances.

 

They claim they’ve been trying to stop it for decades.  Why no success and why do they think it will be different this time. 

[jerrymahoney]

They claim 18 wins of 20 appearances at the Supreme Court last 50 years.

[riclag]

16 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

The Chinese are hiding their books and protests are breaking out across the country. In one place factory workers even threatened to jump off the factories they work at. It seems the notion that Chinese people relish and even embrace economic misery are not how it is. This is happening after how long? Give it a month and see it play out. I can live with out a new toaster that long.

 

 

https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/world-news/protests-erupt-in-china-as-trumps-steep-tariffs-bite-extremely-anxious/

Welcome to the CCP or otherwise known as The Chinese Communist Party. make china great again pre WTO.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_the_World_Trade_Organization

[CallumWK]

9 minutes ago, ThreeCardMonte said:

Strange how this lawsuit was never implemented before under different Presidents.  I suppose LAWFARE wasn’t an issue then under normal circumstances.

 

Strange?

 

There was no reason for a lawsuit under different presidents, since they weren't numb nuts.

[riclag]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

Sooner or later, "the people" reach a breaking point.  That seems to be a point many here fail to acknowledge. 

It has somethin to do with hating orange & liking farm equipment , hammer & sickles .

[cjinchiangrai]

53 minutes ago, ThreeCardMonte said:

They have already begun by the left.

 

Just look at Tesla.

Don't worry, China has plenty of very nice electric cars.

[swissie]

As long as this tariff BS stays in place, future worldwide growth will be stifled. Resulting in a "lost decade", if not worse. Certainly a S&P P/E ratio of 26 will no more be sustainable.

 

"Getting ugly in China"? Under these circumstances it won't be long before things get "ugly" in Europe and the US as well. Worldwide it will get "uglier".

 

Warren Buffet wasn't a buyer recently, he was a seller. A "red flag" was just hoisted.

 

[Cameroni]

8 minutes ago, swissie said:

As long as this tariff BS stays in place, future worldwide growth will be stifled. Resulting in a "lost decade", if not worse. Certainly a S&P P/E ratio of 26 will no more be sustainable.

 

"Getting ugly in China"? Under these circumstances it won't be long before things get "ugly" in Europe and the US as well. Worldwide it will get "uglier".

 

Warren Buffet wasn't a buyer recently, he was a seller. A "red flag" was just hoisted.

 

 

Probably not. Markets are already up as China has cut interest rates to loosen liquidity to aid the Chinese economy and Bessent and Co are to meet with China's top economics offficial in Switzerland.

 

https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/china-cuts-policy-rate-bank-reserve-requirement-ahead-of-us-trade-talks-88862982

 

SP has also said that the US' credit rating is likely to be unaffected by the trade war.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sp-global-sees-credit-rating-breathing-room-trade-war-rivals-us-china-2025-04-29/