Science Three Years to the Brink: Climate Scientists Warn of Imminent 1.5C Breach

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Three Years to the Brink: Climate Scientists Warn of Imminent 1.5C Breach

 

The planet is just three years away from surpassing the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold if carbon dioxide emissions remain at current levels, according to a dire new warning issued by more than 60 of the world’s top climate scientists. Their latest study, the most comprehensive update yet on the trajectory of global warming, signals that without swift and severe cuts to emissions, the world will overshoot its most important climate target.

 

In 2015, nearly 200 nations signed the landmark Paris Agreement, pledging to limit global temperature increases to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in hopes of staving off the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. However, a continued reliance on fossil fuels and widespread deforestation have pushed that target dangerously close to being breached.

 

"Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said Professor Piers Forster, lead author of the study and director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." He added that these shifts are no surprise. "These changes have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions."

 

At the start of 2020, climate scientists estimated humanity had around 500 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left to emit to retain a 50% chance of staying within the 1.5C limit. But by early 2025, this “carbon budget” will have shrunk dramatically to just 130 billion tonnes, according to the new findings. With current emissions averaging 40 billion tonnes per year, that budget would be depleted in roughly three years, potentially locking the planet into breaching the Paris threshold.

 

Although this would not immediately result in a global temperature rise of 1.5C, the trajectory suggests that threshold will likely be passed around the year 2030. While 2024 saw the first-ever 12-month period where average global air temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, this alone does not constitute a formal breach of the Paris Agreement. However, researchers found that last year’s temperature—1.36C above historical norms—was overwhelmingly driven by human-caused emissions.

 

The planet is currently warming at a pace of about 0.27C per decade—an unprecedented rate in Earth’s geological history. While some propose removing carbon from the atmosphere as a potential solution after breaching 1.5C, experts caution that such technologies remain largely theoretical and may not fully reverse the warming.

 

"For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London.

 

One of the most striking findings of the study is the acceleration in the Earth’s “energy imbalance”—the rate at which the planet is absorbing more energy than it emits. Dr. Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office and University of Bristol explained, "That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short time frame.

 

This energy is manifesting in multiple ways—warming land and air, melting glaciers, and, most significantly, heating oceans. Approximately 90% of the excess heat is absorbed by the seas, contributing not only to marine disruption but also rising sea levels. The pace of sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, further endangering coastal populations around the world.

 

Despite the grim projections, there is a faint glimmer of hope. The rate of emissions growth appears to be slowing, partly due to the expansion of cleaner technologies. Scientists stress that now is the time for urgent action.

 

"Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Professor Rogelj. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire."

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from BBC  2025-06-21

 

 

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