Economy Thai Baht's Rise in Jeopardy Amid Political Uncertainty

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

The Thai baht's recent four-month rally faces challenges as political turmoil threatens to impact the nation's economy. According to Christoper Wong, a senior FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, the baht may trade at 32.30 per US dollar by year-end and into early 2026. This suggests only a modest 0.7% increase from its current level following a 5% surge in the past months.

 

Wong highlights several factors that could hinder further appreciation, including slower tourism, subdued domestic demand, political upheaval, and tariff uncertainty. "Compared to other Asian currencies, the baht may continue to struggle," Wong noted on Friday.

 

Concerns have intensified following the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leading to fears of delays in the national budget and economic stimulus. This situation might push the central bank to implement deeper interest rate cuts to support growth, which has already been sluggish.

 

While most Asian currencies have gained ground against the dollar due to US economic challenges, the baht's relationship with gold prices—a traditional support—has weakened. This shift suggests domestic issues are becoming more significant to investors.

 

Wong, recognised as the top-ranked baht forecaster in recent months, attributes this status to accuracy in prediction metrics. Despite not visiting Thailand for client-related activities, his insights continue to guide investor expectations.

 

Uncertainty around tariffs and political stability leads investors to adopt a cautious stance. "There's too much unpredictability to take decisive positions," Wong emphasised, suggesting a wait-and-see approach might dominate the market in the coming months.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-07-07

 

 

[ozz1]

We all know it's far too high it will effect exports and tourism big time if something isn't done about it and with the US imposing high tarrifs it's going to get worse

[Sir Dude]

Good, I hope this manipulated nonsense comes unstuck, and the US and others are right to consider Thailand as a currency manipulator... just ridiculous how strong it is.

[connda]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai baht's recent four-month rally faces challenges as political turmoil threatens to impact the nation's economy.

I rising THB isn't a good thing as it makes exports more expensive.

[sidjameson]

What rising bath?

Barely unchanged against the USD over 5 years. Weaker against the £. 

[TheAppletons]

9 hours ago, sidjameson said:

What rising bath?

Barely unchanged against the USD over 5 years. Weaker against the £. 

 

  Try reading beyond the headline, like even the first 1/2 sentence:

 

  "The Thai baht's recent four-month rally ......"

[Jurg]

10 hours ago, sidjameson said:

What rising bath?

Barely unchanged against the USD over 5 years. Weaker against the £. 

Look at the exchange rates over the past 10 years against the AUD!!

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, ozz1 said:

We all know it's far too high it will effect exports and tourism big time if something isn't done about it and with the US imposing high tarrifs it's going to get worse

Thailand still playing the old game, but now it's back firing.

[johnc925]

Manipulation getting too difficult to keep up? Hopefully BoT changes will resolve this once and for all!! 

[hongthai]

down 10.68% in one year and down 6.8 % in 3 months to US$

[BerndD]

12 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Good, I hope this manipulated nonsense comes unstuck, and the US and others are right to consider Thailand as a currency manipulator... just ridiculous how strong it is.

The bigger manipulator is the ORANGE, only Jerome H. Powell is still standing in its way.

[Aussie999]

30 minutes ago, Jurg said:

Look at the exchange rates over the past 10 years against the AUD!!

About 10 years ago it was close to 30 baht to the Australian dollar, today it is closer to 20 baht... Another nail in the coffin for tourists 

[Zakhar]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

File photo for reference only

 

The Thai baht's recent four-month rally faces challenges as political turmoil threatens to impact the nation's economy. According to Christoper Wong, a senior FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, the baht may trade at 32.30 per US dollar (approximately 35.98 Thai Baht) by year-end and into early 2026. This suggests only a modest 0.7% increase from its current level following a 5% surge in the past months.

 

Wong highlights several factors that could hinder further appreciation, including slower tourism, subdued domestic demand, political upheaval, and tariff uncertainty. "Compared to other Asian currencies, the baht may continue to struggle," Wong noted on Friday.

 

Concerns have intensified following the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leading to fears of delays in the national budget and economic stimulus. This situation might push the central bank to implement deeper interest rate cuts to support growth, which has already been sluggish.

 

While most Asian currencies have gained ground against the dollar due to US economic challenges, the baht's relationship with gold prices—a traditional support—has weakened. This shift suggests domestic issues are becoming more significant to investors.

 

Wong, recognised as the top-ranked baht forecaster in recent months, attributes this status to accuracy in prediction metrics. Despite not visiting Thailand for client-related activities, his insights continue to guide investor expectations.

 

Uncertainty around tariffs and political stability leads investors to adopt a cautious stance. "There's too much unpredictability to take decisive positions," Wong emphasised, suggesting a wait-and-see approach might dominate the market in the coming months.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-07-07

 

 

Here is table some data from 2015 thru Jun. If you look at the last 4 years, THB is climbing up.  However, it is somewhat manipulated and it should trade around 35 THB  against 1 USD as an average

Year	High (THB/USD)	Low (THB/USD)	Average (THB/USD)
2015	36.087	32.346	34.248
2016	36.193	34.298	35.297
2017	35.297	32.614	33.940
2018	33.714	31.183	32.310
2019	32.153	29.747	31.046
2020	32.311	29.723	31.295
2021	34.026	29.806	31.980
2022	38.234	31.406	35.078
2023	37.162	33.706	34.924
2024	37.237	33.996	34.090
2025	34.8991	32.3446	33.5024 (Jan–Jun)

[jwl53]

Been to high for far to long

On of the main reasons tourists are staying away, they can get much the same for far less in other S.E. Asian countries, get the baht down to 50 baht and more to the pound tourists will flood back

[Tailwagsdog]

35 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

About 10 years ago it was close to 30 baht to the Australian dollar, today it is closer to 20 baht... Another nail in the coffin for tourists 

The baht doesn't trade against the AUD, only against the US & Euro. 10 yrs ago the AUD was massively high even higher against the US $ becos of the massive trade surplus Australia had with Communist China.

[alanrchase]

The typical moaning about Thailand manipulating its currency without acknowledging that the USD has dropped about 10% against a basket of currencies over the last few months. Maybe it is the US that is manipulating its currency?

[Aussie999]

3 minutes ago, Tailwagsdog said:

The baht doesn't trade against the AUD, only against the US & Euro. 10 yrs ago the AUD was massively high even higher against the US $ becos of the massive trade surplus Australia had with Communist China.

Geez mate, haven't you heard of exchange rates, and next time just read what I replied to...bloody hell.

[G Rex]

45 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

About 10 years ago it was close to 30 baht to the Australian dollar, today it is closer to 20 baht... Another nail in the coffin for tourists 

 

Things change!   12-14 years ago the Aussie was up to $1.12US , now only just over half that..

The AUD is a small player in financial markets.

 

[Aussie999]

6 minutes ago, G Rex said:

 

Things change!   12-14 years ago the Aussie was up to $1.12US , now only just over half that..

The AUD is a small player in financial markets.

 

I agree, but my comment is in regards to it's affect on tourism, high baht low tourism

[factual monk]

Last Nail in coffin @ Tourism 

[JustinTyme]

Hey world, we increased our prices almost 11% last year with a "Stronger Baht", but can't figure out why our economy is sputtering, our stock market is one of the world's worst performers, and now with Trump is about to add another "X" percent to our exports, we are not sure we should weaken the currency to kick start the economy. No worries, as long as the Hi-So mafia who run the country can buy foreign goods, investments, and pay those tuitions in foreign countries ... let's just keep the baht artificially strong, and party like its 1999.

 

[kingstonkid]

14 hours ago, ozz1 said:

We all know it's far too high it will effect exports and tourism big time if something isn't done about it and with the US imposing high tarrifs it's going to get worse

 

Forget about Tarrifs, the other problem is for those of us who are retired, transferring in money gets tighter.

 

Last year 3k cdn got over 72k baht  now it is just brely above 65k

 

 

That really sucks

 

Also I agree that it is going to affect exports butnot sure about  tourism we are still pretty cheap compared to other Asian countries and have a lot to offer.

 

The governemnt has to get solid and actually start doing things.

 

Would love to see the Budget bill get defeated in August.

 

[kingstonkid]

3 minutes ago, factual monk said:

Last Nail in coffin @ Tourism 

 

 

They still have tourism BUT the challenge is really how many Aus US UK families or pensioners can afford to come here on holiday or permanently

 

There really is nothing to attract people except the temples and beaches.

 

 

 

[klauskunkel]

17 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

According to Christoper Wong the baht may trade at 32.30 per US dollar (approximately 35.98 Thai Baht)

Apparently Wong thinks that 32.30 Thai Baht is the same as 35.98 Thai Baht. 

Or the reporter got it wong...

[factual monk]

13 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

 

 

They still have tourism BUT the challenge is really how many Aus US UK families or pensioners can afford to come here on holiday or permanently

 

There really is nothing to attract people except the temples and beaches.

 

 

 

Very true... i agree... i come to stay Thailand for long stays... 3 months n exit .. return 3 months n exit... but now I am planning to move Vietnam... atleast it's a bit cheaper than Th

[kingstonkid]

6 minutes ago, factual monk said:

Very true... i agree... i come to stay Thailand for long stays... 3 months n exit .. return 3 months n exit... but now I am planning to move Vietnam... atleast it's a bit cheaper than Th

 

what is life like there is it worth investigating as a retirement location?

[david555]

BTW ... after being 2 years out of Thailand after a 14 year stay , i see now many changes ..... example with Kasikorn bank , as they removed many ATM , and also to my surprise i could not deposit on my account cash 100 euro bill brand new ,they directed me to TT exchange ...🤔

 

while Thai law say foreign money brought in cash must be changed to baht on account into 6 month ......No KK exchange booths anymore  ???

[kingstonkid]

7 minutes ago, david555 said:

BTW ... after being 2 years out of Thailand after a 14 year stay , i see now many changes ..... example with Kasikorn bank , as they removed many ATM , and also to my surprise i could not deposit on my account cash 100 euro bill brand new ,they directed me to TT exchange ...🤔

 

while Thai law say foreign money brought in cash must be changed to baht on account into 6 month ......No KK exchange booths anymore  ???

 

No what they want is for you to go to the bank to do it

[david555]

6 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

 

No what they want is for you to go to the bank to do it

It was on my KK bank on beach rd.

No other problems , my new Debet card is now up to 2032 valid ....

And the sum was below the import limit , but anyway high ....

 

Also face recognizing entry (now also for foreigners ) was done smooth and friendly ...

[JustinTyme]

38 minutes ago, klauskunkel said:

Apparently Wong thinks that 32.30 Thai Baht is the same as 35.98 Thai Baht. 

Or the reporter got it wong...

Yeah, at that point I just was like another word salad that basically says, "The baht could go up, the baht could go down, too early to say" ... why did they publish these "predictions??? "  And the sentence you highlighted, what does that even MEAN???