Ceasefire Crumbles as Shan State Braces for Renewed Conflict

[geovalin]

CJ

 

 

Tensions are flaring once again in northern Shan State after peace talks between Myanmar’s military regime and the Kokang rebel group MNDAA collapsed, raising fears of fresh fighting in the volatile region.

 

The China-brokered negotiations, held in Lashio on 14 August, broke down when the junta refused to recognise MNDAA-held territory as Shan State Special Region 1—an autonomous enclave long claimed by the Kokang people.

 

The MNDAA had earlier agreed to a ceasefire under Chinese pressure, handing back Lashio and neighbouring Hseni in exchange for a halt to airstrikes and formal recognition of its territory. While the regime paused its aerial assaults, other promises remain unfulfilled.

 

The breakdown follows a deadly airstrike in June on Kutkai, which killed six civilians, including a child. The MNDAA accused the junta of breaching the ceasefire and warned that trust had been severely eroded. Its forces remain deployed along key roads, and its administration is reportedly consolidating control in Hseni.

 

Locals now fear renewed conflict, with public anger mounting over China’s silence on civilian casualties. A proposed ceasefire monitoring office in Lashio, suggested by Chinese envoy Deng Xijun, has yet to materialise.

 

Meanwhile, junta Foreign Minister Than Swe met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Yunnan during the Lancang-Mekong summit, where Beijing urged stability and reconciliation. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit later this month, as Myanmar seeks to bolster its diplomatic standing.

 

The MNDAA, formed in 1989 after splitting from the Communist Party of Burma, has long fought for autonomy. Its refusal to become a border guard force under the 2008 Constitution led to years of conflict and displacement. After setbacks in 2015, the group regained ground during Operation 1027, seizing Lashio and expanding its control.

 

With talks in tatters and military manoeuvres intensifying, Shan State faces a precarious future—one shaped by broken promises, strategic ambition, and the enduring struggle for self-rule.

 

 

-2025-08-20