INSIGHT - Ukraine stares down the barrel of population collapse - REUTERS

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-stares-down-barrel-population-collapse-2025-12-04/

 

Ukraine's population - 42 million before the full-scale invasion in February 2022 - has already shrunk to below 36 million, including several million in areas captured by Russia, according to the demography institute at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences.
It estimates the figure will drop to 25 million by 2051.
The collapse is gathering pace.
The country has both the highest death rates and lowest birth rates in the world, according to 2024 estimates in the CIA World Factbook: for every birth there are around three deaths.

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Below is a clear, accurate list of all countries 

 

 

You didn't actually read the post when you trotted out that copy/pasted ChatGPT/Claud/Gemini/etc listing, attempting a Trotskyist deflection. You have continually hijacked a thread, which is about Ukraine winning war, rebutting, Soviet-like, every point with a pro-Russian line, smothered in a "but I don't really support Putin" line. Start a new thread perhaps, instead of deflection. I'm sure there will be plenty flocking in there to agree with you. I'm sure you will attempt a 30 minute flounce again.

 

At the time of the Ludendorff Offensive, there were no American troops in Europe, which is why there was a Ludendorff offensive; he needed to break the Western Allies (the bulk  of the troops facing him were British and French) before the facts on the ground changed (the arrival of fresh US troops). 

 

World War One was a global war. They weren't all in France. Nor was Germany alone in that war. There was, for instance, Austro-Hungarians and Turks on various fronts. The Germans/Austro-Hungarians/Turks also had their own colonial troops, used for much the same purpose.

 

There is such thing as a fog of war, which Pete Hegseth thinks is smoke from a burning fiberglass boat. The war is in a stalemate, that much is clear.

 

When using Chat GPT, note the impact of malign actors to alter your perceptions, especially if you don't check for hallucinations, a common occurence with AI (presumably you know what that is, without asking AI what is an AI hallucination). A suitably left wing NGO reported on this months ago;

 

https://thebulletin.org/2025/03/russian-networks-flood-the-internet-with-propaganda-aiming-to-corrupt-ai-chatbots/

 

 

 

 

Good appraisal of Russia's November economic numbers.

Russia scrapes the barrel for low behaviour. Sending kidnapped Ukrainian kids to North Korea now.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-putin-tells-europe-hes-ready-for-war-after-rejecting-ukraine-peace-deal-as-nato-meets-12541713?postid=10642746#liveblog-body

 

 

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-children-abducted-by-russia-reportedly-sent-to-north-korea-us-senators-examine-evidence-13995

 

 

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-eliminates-entire-russian-sabotage-team-plotting-fake-victory-video-near-dobropillia-14018

 

Russia attempting operations to change the perception of the facts on the ground; claiming territorial advances when there are none.

 

This is clearly designed to influence negotiators, but also the many UIs out thhere acting as cheer leaders, intentionally or not, for the Russian cause.

3 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

 

You didn't actually read the post when you trotted out that copy/pasted ChatGPT/Claud/Gemini/etc listing, attempting a Trotskyist deflection. You have continually hijacked a thread, which is about Ukraine winning war, rebutting, Soviet-like, every point with a pro-Russian line, smothered in a "but I don't really support Putin" line. Start a new thread perhaps, instead of deflection. I'm sure there will be plenty flocking in there to agree with you. I'm sure you will attempt a 30 minute flounce again.

 

At the time of the Ludendorff Offensive, there were no American troops in Europe, which is why there was a Ludendorff offensive; he needed to break the Western Allies (the bulk  of the troops facing him were British and French) before the facts on the ground changed (the arrival of fresh US troops). 

 

World War One was a global war. They weren't all in France. Nor was Germany alone in that war. There was, for instance, Austro-Hungarians and Turks on various fronts. The Germans/Austro-Hungarians/Turks also had their own colonial troops, used for much the same purpose.

 

There is such thing as a fog of war, which Pete Hegseth thinks is smoke from a burning fiberglass boat. The war is in a stalemate, that much is clear.

 

When using Chat GPT, note the impact of malign actors to alter your perceptions, especially if you don't check for hallucinations, a common occurence with AI (presumably you know what that is, without asking AI what is an AI hallucination). A suitably left wing NGO reported on this months ago;

 

https://thebulletin.org/2025/03/russian-networks-flood-the-internet-with-propaganda-aiming-to-corrupt-ai-chatbots/

 

 

 

Your historical narrative is well-informed and engaging; however, my central point concerned the decisive imbalance of forces. The Allies held a roughly 2:1 advantage in overall combat power and in a protracted war of attrition, such mass typically proves decisive.

 

Now, consider a scenario where Russia is operating on a full total-war footing, with its entire military-industrial complex fully mobilized and efficiently directed. This effort is underpinned by the steely financial management of Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, who has insulated the economy from the worst shocks of sanctions. Furthermore, replace the previous defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, with a figure like  Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov a seasoned industrialist with deep ties to the military-industrial complex and you introduce a level of logistical and production competence previously lacking. Pit this revitalized and recalibrated machine against a depleted Ukraine, grappling with severe shortages in both manpower and critical matériel, and you have the makings of a perfect storm.

 

These are the factual realities as I assess them. Dismissing this analysis with accusations of “AI smears” is a diversion. This discussion is about whether Ukraine is winning the war. The evidence, drawn from mainstream and authoritative sources, indicates it is not. If your concern is the moderation of discourse, I suggest you apply to become a moderator there was a call for volunteers recently. Given your vigilance, I am certain you would receive a fair hearing.

 

Oh and I thought you were ignoring me and had me blocked - apprently not. 

 

 

Well I am no expert in international powers or history.  But I'd like to opine on this long running discussion.  Yes if this was a WWII win or die situation Russia has an enormous advantage over Ukraine.  And would grind it down in the end.  Thing is, some here are forgetting the human aspects.  

 

Russia prior to this adventure experienced a decent standard of living and security for it's people not unlike that of the west.  Now, they are seeing their sons come home in a box and actual luxury spending gone.  Plus imports of many every day items blocked in response to this war.  Can Russia win in the end?  Certainly.  Question is will they?

 

This is somewhat similar to the USA in the late 60s facing N Vietnam.  Militarily the US never experienced any significant losses.  On the battlefield easy W.   But the shock of boys coming home dead shocked the American people.  Discontent arose and in the end the USA lost the conflict based on home front division.

 

And for the Russia fans yes I agree there isn't a real direct connection because Russia is a totalitarian government without real opposition.  I just wonder how many casualties can they accept before they have one?  USA lost about 60,000 soldiers in the Vietnam war with a total population of 200,000,000.  Russia has lost by some estimates 800,000 with a total population of 144,000,000.  That is significant.  

 

Just food for thought.

 

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, jimmybcool said:

Well I am no expert in international powers or history.  But I'd like to opine on this long running discussion.  Yes if this was a WWII win or die situation Russia has an enormous advantage over Ukraine.  And would grind it down in the end.  Thing is, some here are forgetting the human aspects.  

 

Russia prior to this adventure experienced a decent standard of living and security for it's people not unlike that of the west.  Now, they are seeing their sons come home in a box and actual luxury spending gone.  Plus imports of many every day items blocked in response to this war.  Can Russia win in the end?  Certainly.  Question is will they?

 

This is somewhat similar to the USA in the late 60s facing N Vietnam.  Militarily the US never experienced any significant losses.  On the battlefield easy W.   But the shock of boys coming home dead shocked the American people.  Discontent arose and in the end the USA lost the conflict based on home front division.

 

And for the Russia fans yes I agree there isn't a real direct connection because Russia is a totalitarian government without real opposition.  I just wonder how many casualties can they accept before they have one?  USA lost about 60,000 soldiers in the Vietnam war with a total population of 200,000,000.  Russia has lost by some estimates 800,000 with a total population of 144,000,000.  That is significant.  

 

Just food for thought.

 

 

 

 

Jimmy some of the sanest take I've seen on here - quiet reflection and the wisdom of age rather than the rage of age which some folks here in this dying forum seem to have their default setting. More please !

16 minutes ago, jimmybcool said:

Well I am no expert in international powers or history.  But I'd like to opine on this long running discussion.  Yes if this was a WWII win or die situation Russia has an enormous advantage over Ukraine.  And would grind it down in the end.  Thing is, some here are forgetting the human aspects.  

 

Russia prior to this adventure experienced a decent standard of living and security for it's people not unlike that of the west.  Now, they are seeing their sons come home in a box and actual luxury spending gone.  Plus imports of many every day items blocked in response to this war.  Can Russia win in the end?  Certainly.  Question is will they?

 

This is somewhat similar to the USA in the late 60s facing N Vietnam.  Militarily the US never experienced any significant losses.  On the battlefield easy W.   But the shock of boys coming home dead shocked the American people.  Discontent arose and in the end the USA lost the conflict based on home front division.

 

And for the Russia fans yes I agree there isn't a real direct connection because Russia is a totalitarian government without real opposition.  I just wonder how many casualties can they accept before they have one?  USA lost about 60,000 soldiers in the Vietnam war with a total population of 200,000,000.  Russia has lost by some estimates 800,000 with a total population of 144,000,000.  That is significant.  

 

Just food for thought.

 

 

 

 

Plus the Ukrainians are fighting for their lives, their families and their homes, in short their sovereignty.

What are the Russians fighting for? 

Money. It's an incentive but cannot match the motivation of the Ukrainians.

STOCKHOLM, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Sweden will phase out development aid to five countries in coming years and use the money to increase support for Ukraine, the government said on Friday.

 

The Nordic country plans to phase out aid to Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mozambique, Liberia and Bolivia, Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa said.

 

"Ukraine is Sweden's most important foreign policy and aid policy priority a-5nd therefore the government is going to increase aid to Ukraine to at least 10 billion crowns ($1.06 billion) in 2026," Dousa said.

 

Sweden to cut development aid to five countries, divert money to Ukraine

 

 

This is utterly damning, implying forcefully that the corruption goes to the very top. Now they tell us. The leadership of the state has been enriching themselves with Western money whilst poor Ukrainians many forced into combat face horrible conditions on the front line.

 

Slava corruption.

 

It's not just that officials "were enriching themselves"Zelensky's administration actively sabotaged the oversight systems designed to prevent this. They stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty, rewrote company charters, and fired whistleblowers

The article shows European donors knew and tolerated this: "European leaders have privately criticized but reluctantly tolerated Ukrainian corruption for years"

 

Maidan betrayed by those who professed to be different, cheered on by Western governments and fellow travelers, leading to the destruction of that state. Shame on you.

 

We are being groomed for the collapse of Ukraine as a viable state by the western MSM  and the blame game has begun. 

 

Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester
Ukrainian leaders blame independent advisers for failing to prevent graft. A Times investigation found that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s own administration removed guardrails.

 

https://archive.ph/F0W92#selection-513.0-517.177

 

To protect their money, the United States and European nations insisted on oversight. They required Ukraine to allow groups of outside experts, known as supervisory boards, to monitor spending, appoint executives and prevent corruption.
Over the past four years, a New York Times investigation found, the Ukrainian government systematically sabotaged that oversight, allowing graft to flourish.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around.

Russia says Ukrainian attack caused fire at Azov Sea port of Temryuk

 

MOSCOW, Dec 5 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at Russia's Azov Sea port of Temryuk, the local emergencies centre said on Friday.

 

Temryuk handles liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), oil products and petrochemicals, as well as grain and other bulk food commodities.

 

Russia says Ukrainian attack caused fire at Azov Sea port of Temryuk | Reuters

 

 

 

 

No wonder Jamie Dimon and Blackrock are circling like vultures on the corpse. 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This is utterly damning, implying forcefully that the corruption goes to the very top. Now they tell us. The leadership of the state has been enriching themselves with Western money whilst poor Ukrainians many forced into combat face horrible conditions on the front line.

 

Slava corruption.

 

It's not just that officials "were enriching themselves"Zelensky's administration actively sabotaged the oversight systems designed to prevent this. They stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty, rewrote company charters, and fired whistleblowers

The article shows European donors knew and tolerated this: "European leaders have privately criticized but reluctantly tolerated Ukrainian corruption for years"

 

Maidan betrayed by those who professed to be different, cheered on by Western governments and fellow travelers, leading to the destruction of that state. Shame on you.

 

We are being groomed for the collapse of Ukraine as a viable state by the western MSM  and the blame game has begun. 

 

Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester
Ukrainian leaders blame independent advisers for failing to prevent graft. A Times investigation found that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s own administration removed guardrails.

 

https://archive.ph/F0W92#selection-513.0-517.177

 

To protect their money, the United States and European nations insisted on oversight. They required Ukraine to allow groups of outside experts, known as supervisory boards, to monitor spending, appoint executives and prevent corruption.
Over the past four years, a New York Times investigation found, the Ukrainian government systematically sabotaged that oversight, allowing graft to flourish.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around.

My Assessment

 

The reporting appears factually grounded with multiple sources, but the timing is clearly political. Western powers tolerated this for years while pouring in billions, then suddenly the NYT - often seen as reflecting establishment views - publishes a damning exposé.

 

This could indeed reflect:

    US policy shift under incoming Trump administration wanting to reduce Ukraine commitments
    Preparation of public opinion for a negotiated settlement involving territorial concessions
    Scapegoating Ukrainian leadership for what may be seen as a failed Western policy

 

Whether US intelligence "wanted this out there" specifically - I can't prove that, but the geopolitical timing around peace negotiations and the Trump transition makes it highly plausible this represents a coordinated messaging shift rather than purely independent journalism.

 

The phrase some are using - "being groomed for the collapse" - captures something real: when the narrative suddenly shifts from "heroic resistance" to "systemic corruption," it signals policymakers are preparing to change course.

 

'They' want Zelinskiy out. Classic US playbook when you're no longer useful you're disposable. Same goes for countries. There are no rules at that level of the game just ever changing postions like the weather or the wind. 

Another flock of fresh Flamingos

 

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukrainian-forces-receive-batch-of-flamingo-1764969826.html

Russian budget cut to the bone to fund Putin;s Rusiich (mis)adventure

 

https://theins.press/en/economics/287443

 

Tax up, Education/ Healthcare down.

Base Details - Siegfried Sassoon. 

If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath
I'd live with scarlet Majors at the Base,
And speed glum heroes up the line to death.
You'd see me with my puffy petulant face,
Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel,
Reading the Roll of Honour. "Poor young chap,"
I'd say — "I used to know his father well;
Yes, we've lost heavily in this last scrap."
And when the war is done and youth stone dead,
I'd toddle safely home and die — in bed.

https://gwaramedia.com/en/ukraine-destroys-russian-su-24-tactical-bomber-in-occupied-crimea-intelligence-agency-says/

 

Ukrainian special forces operating in Russian occupied Ukraine took out a SU-24, an ld  but effective aircraft.

Ukfraine FA fined by UEFA for banners erected by fans at World Cup qualifiers. Probably worth it.

 

https://unn.ua/en/news/uefa-fined-the-ukrainian-football-association-for-an-anti-russian-banner-displayed-by-fans

 

 

Ukrainian drone damage to the Russian Security Office in Grozny.

 

 

https://tass.com/emergencies/2054633

7 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Ukrainian drone damage to the Russian Security Office in Grozny.

 

 

https://tass.com/emergencies/2054633

You do know that TASS isn't an approved source here - don't you ?

More civil war vibes says me to no one. There's hardly anybody here and most who are have me on ignore but I post in hope that the truth will leak out to just one more mind open for reflection not closed, probably in vain. 

 

https://archive.ph/IvE6F

 

 Anastasia Piliavsky -  Ukraine's war on the Russian language is a mistake -THE SPECTATOR 

 

A recent survey of Kyiv schools found that 66 per cent of students said they spoke Russian in class and 82 per cent used it during breaks. Russophone cartoons dominate children’s viewing. Ukrainian-language and Russian-language news draw similar audiences, and even the most nationalist outlets maintain Russophone editions.

The plainest proof is on the front. In trench videos Russian is heard at least as much as Ukrainian, spoken by the most unambiguous patriots – Ukrainians fighting and dying for their country. For them, Russian is not ‘the occupier’s tongue’; it is simply their language.

For the just give the invaders a slice of Ukraine and there will be peace crowd

 

 

On 12/5/2025 at 2:12 PM, jimmybcool said:

Well I am no expert in international powers or history.  But I'd like to opine on this long running discussion.  Yes if this was a WWII win or die situation Russia has an enormous advantage over Ukraine.  And would grind it down in the end.  Thing is, some here are forgetting the human aspects.  

 

Russia prior to this adventure experienced a decent standard of living and security for it's people not unlike that of the west.  Now, they are seeing their sons come home in a box and actual luxury spending gone.  Plus imports of many every day items blocked in response to this war.  Can Russia win in the end?  Certainly.  Question is will they?

 

This is somewhat similar to the USA in the late 60s facing N Vietnam.  Militarily the US never experienced any significant losses.  On the battlefield easy W.   But the shock of boys coming home dead shocked the American people.  Discontent arose and in the end the USA lost the conflict based on home front division.

 

And for the Russia fans yes I agree there isn't a real direct connection because Russia is a totalitarian government without real opposition.  I just wonder how many casualties can they accept before they have one?  USA lost about 60,000 soldiers in the Vietnam war with a total population of 200,000,000.  Russia has lost by some estimates 800,000 with a total population of 144,000,000.  That is significant.  

 

Just food for thought.

 

 

 

 

 

The USSR lost 15,000 conscript soldiers in Afghanistan. The Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia (CSMR) was formed for soldier's mums to highlight the brutal nature of Soviet army service. They made public dedovshchina, or hazing. They helped make the war unpopular, and forced Gorbachov to pull out. The Soviets were as prone to public opinion  as the Americans.

 

Its different now. The USSR has gone. The USSR was made up of many different nationalities, with a certain amount egalatarianism. Thats all gone, and Putin is probably genuinely unhappy its gone. But the former Soviet republics don't want to go back.

 

The modern Russian Federation is not the same. Its deeply racist. There is no sense that the non-Slavic minorities get a seat at the high table. Life in Moscow and St Petersberg is very comfortable, with a high standard of living. But get out into the sticks, where the non-Slavs live, and its grim. They are not benefiting from the revenues from oil and mineral sales.

 

Russian law prohibits the use of conscript soldiers on the front line. So all those troops fighting are volunteers, "professional troops". That's altered the public's attitudes toward casulaties, compared to Afghanistan. 

 

Here's where Russian racism comes into it. Contract troops get a cash bonus, and this incentivises poor non-Slav Russians to join, so they are disproportionately dying:

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russias-ethnic-minorities-disproportionately-conscripted-to-fight-the-war-in-ukraine

 

The CSMR these days represents these soldiers, and were initially supportive, because the money was benefiting their communities. But now they have started to turn against Putin. Some Russians believe the government is taking advantage of the war to practice some ethnic cleansing. Russian society has three tiers; at the top are the Slavs and non-Slav European Russians (eg Russians of German descent). In the middle are Asian minorities from the 'Stans and Siberia, a mixture of Christians and Buddhists. A the bottom is the dashiki; criminals and Russian muslims. The non-European Russians have no say. The Chechens have their own private army, often procuring their own non-Russian kit (eg Chinese equipment). Moscow, since the Chechen war, pays Kadyrov vast sums not to kick off. In return, Kadyrov offers up fearsome looking troops. They have all the kit, and are known to be brutal. But they also earned the reputation of being TikTik warriors, posing for videos in their gucci kit, and staged assaults against no one in particular.

 

As long as the Kremlin can keep paying these groups off, they will keep providing a steadstream of cannon fodder. But the money is drying up, with the sign on bonuses much reduced and increasingly the provincial governments are footing the bill.

 

There is growing opposition among minorities. Putin has labeled 172 ethnic and minority rights groups as terrorists.

 

One of the leading non-Muslim minorities are the Buryats. SOme background:

 

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russias-indigenous-communities-and-war-ukraine

 

If the money dries up, there are problems. Reportedly, the heavy losses are demanding a heavy replacement rate. Putin could easily fix this by changing the law to allow conscripts. But he hasn't; Russians will be bothered about lads forced to fight and die, as opposed to lads fighting for money.

 

If it came to full on conscription, both sides have enough men, and some, to slug it out. Both sides, for the same reasons, have not extended conscription. Even during WW2, the UK had high desertion rates during the period when it was struggling, As prospects improved, the desertion rate fell.

 

At the start of WW1, jingoism on both sides was hgh, with high public support for the war. Britain went to war with professional soldiers, When it was forced to switch to conscripts, public disquiet increased. The experience meant that in WW2, the government employed units to monitor public opinion and morale.

 

If Russia "wins", what have they actually one. A ruined Donbass. The local economy is in tatters. Ukraine might well accept that they cannot, at this stage, enforce a Russian pullout. Ultimately that might be something for a future Ukrainian government. They can though ensure that Russian occupation remains de facto, and doesn't become de jure. Once the occupation is internationally recognised, then money will pour in to rebuild the place. If it doesn't, then the place becomes a millstone for Moscow. it will be Moscow footing the bill, taking money away from programmes for other Russians, such as healthcare or education. That's might be why Putin has been shipping out Ukrainians to the 'Stans (these are Ukrainians who support in), and providing providing loans for Russian colonists to move in.

 

https://cepa.org/article/behind-the-lines-ethnic-cleansing-by-home-loan/

 

So Russia is providing mortgages to people moving in.  Compared to 2011, 80% of the population of the Donbass has gone, to be refugees in Ukraine or in Russia. So who's property are young Russians taking out mortgages on? Are abandoned properties really abandoned?

 

The European Commission expects Germany, France, and Italy to become the main guarantors of a €210 billion emergency loan for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets, Politico reports.

According to European Commission documents, the guarantees of the countries are calculated based on gross national income, so Germany, France, and Italy are expected to take on the main burden of providing the emergency loan to Ukraine.

 

Germany is to take on the largest share, about €51.3 billion. France, in turn, will have to provide €34 billion, and Italy will have to provide €25.1 billion. Such commitments will allow the European Commission to secure the support of all member states and obtain the approval of Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to issue the loan, intended to support Ukraine's economy in 2026–2027.

 

The EC documents also stipulate that EU countries must individually provide billions of euros to guarantee the €210 billion loan.

 

EU prepares €210bn support package for Ukraine as key states take on bulk of guarantees