Photo courtesy of Thai Newsroom

 

The Pheu Thai party, part of Thailand's current opposition bloc, faces a challenging path to becoming the core of a future government. According to a NIDA academic, the Bhumjaithai and People's parties have equal opportunities, at roughly 50:50, to lead a government after the general election anticipated in March. Despite Pheu Thai's recent rally indicating readiness, uncertainties remain over their potential prime minister candidates and the possibility of members leaving for other parties.

 

Historically led by Thaksin Shinawatra, who is now imprisoned, Pheu Thai may struggle against Bhumjaithai, led by Newin Chidchob, and the reformist People's party. The upcoming election is speculated to occur in March, with Thaksin's influence waning as Bhumjaithai gains popularity under current Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Current forecasts suggest Bhumjaithai and People's could win over 100 MP seats each, while Pheu Thai might secure fewer than 100.

 

This potential outcome puts Pheu Thai at a disadvantage for leading a new coalition government. Pheu Thai members from northeastern constituencies, particularly those near the Thai-Cambodian border, might switch affiliations to increase their re-election chances. The Sam Mitr faction, within Pheu Thai, could also jump ship to secure positions in future coalitions, lured by offers of ministerial seats and campaign resources.

 

Several seasoned MPs, such as Kriang Kantinand and Chuwit Pithakpornpallop, are expected to consider departing for better prospects. Historically, "Big House" MPs, their relatives, and allies have managed transitions to maintain political roles, often benefiting from financial resources. The possibility of defection looms large as all lawmakers can switch parties 30 days before election day.

 

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's daughter, has been partly blamed for Pheu Thai's declining popularity in northeastern regions. Her past controversies, including her handling of a border conflict with Cambodia, have been detrimental. As Pheu Thai faces this tumultuous period, expert predictions suggest they might perform poorly in the upcoming elections, potentially losing significant ground to rivals.

 

Key Takeaways

• Pheu Thai faces an uphill battle to form the next government.
• Rival parties Bhumjaithai and People's have equal chances of leading.
• Potential defection of Pheu Thai members could weaken their election bid.

 

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Thai Newsroom 2025-10-10

 

 

48 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's daughter, has been partly blamed for Pheu Thai's declining popularity in northeastern regions. Her past controversies, including her handling of a border conflict with Cambodia, have been detrimental. As Pheu Thai faces this tumultuous period, expert predictions suggest they might perform poorly in the upcoming elections, potentially losing significant ground to rivals.

No need to blame Thaksin for using relatives to run a series of puppet governments then?