As Donald Trump shatters the global rules-based order, official institutions (and private investors) are scrambling to buy gold: the share of the asset in central banks’ reserves has doubled in the past decade to more than a quarter, the highest level in almost 30 years...

“We have moved from Pax Americana to global discord, geopolitically. It is the law of the jungle when we see what the US are doing,” says Raphaël Gallardo, the chief economist at the asset manager Carmignac.

“Investors – private and sovereign – believe their strategic reserves are no longer safe in dollar terms, as they can be confiscated overnight.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/16/the-dollar-is-losing-credibility-why-central-banks-are-scrambling-for-gold

16 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

As Donald Trump shatters the global rules-based order, official institutions (and private investors) are scrambling to buy gold: the share of the asset in central banks’ reserves has doubled in the past decade to more than a quarter, the highest level in almost 30 years...

“We have moved from Pax Americana to global discord, geopolitically. It is the law of the jungle when we see what the US are doing,” says Raphaël Gallardo, the chief economist at the asset manager Carmignac.

“Investors – private and sovereign – believe their strategic reserves are no longer safe in dollar terms, as they can be confiscated overnight.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/16/the-dollar-is-losing-credibility-why-central-banks-are-scrambling-for-gold

All true. But Gold can not replace "currencies". The efforts to replace the Dollar with an alternative "currency basket" has made little progress. So, the US$ will remain relevant for quite some time. To be had for a lower price, but that's in the interest of the current administration anyway.

One relatively unimportant French asset manager takes a stab at getting the firm's name in the news. Look at the assets under management. Most are equities and bonds. And here is this guy touting gold. Sure. Usually, when I see asset managers pushing investments, I look at their fee structure. Let's see how the principal owners feel. 😉

18 minutes ago, swissie said:

All true. But Gold can not replace "currencies". The efforts to replace the Dollar with an alternative "currency basket" has made little progress. So, the US$ will remain relevant for quite some time. To be had for a lower price, but that's in the interest of the current administration anyway.

Good point and as it stands at present I don't disagree, but the undeniable instability in US suggests solutions are and indeed must be sought.

Neither the euro, pound nor the yuan alone will replace the US dollar.

However given some of the extraordinary changes pretty swiftly taking place we may very likely see some creative alternative emerge from this mess.

US has historically and brutally suppressed any threat to the power of the petro dollar for example.

BRICS attempt to challenge reliance on US dollar has been thwarted to date but with the turmoil in US and their lessening grip on power, soft or otherwise globally, could see that change.

It'll be interesting to see what transpires.

16 minutes ago, Chutney said:

Good point and as it stands at present I don't disagree, but the undeniable instability in US suggests solutions are and indeed must be sought.

Neither the euro, pound nor the yuan alone will replace the US dollar.

However given some of the extraordinary changes pretty swiftly taking place we may very likely see some creative alternative emerge from this mess.

US has historically and brutally suppressed any threat to the power of the petro dollar for example.

BRICS attempt to challenge reliance on US dollar has been thwarted to date but with the turmoil in US and their lessening grip on power, soft or otherwise globally, could see that change.

It'll be interesting to see what transpires.

Yes indeed, it will be interesting to see what transpires. The only thing that seems certain: It will be a lenghty process. Alone the amount of woldwide dept in form of US$ is mindboggeling.

26 minutes ago, Chutney said:

Good point and as it stands at present I don't disagree, but the undeniable instability in US suggests solutions are and indeed must be sought.

Neither the euro, pound nor the yuan alone will replace the US dollar.

However given some of the extraordinary changes pretty swiftly taking place we may very likely see some creative alternative emerge from this mess.

US has historically and brutally suppressed any threat to the power of the petro dollar for example.

BRICS attempt to challenge reliance on US dollar has been thwarted to date but with the turmoil in US and their lessening grip on power, soft or otherwise globally, could see that change.

It'll be interesting to see what transpires.

I don't think BRICS has been suppressed. Without China BRICS doesn't amount to much. And who's going to trust China? It doesn't let the Yuan float freely and it's subject to capital controls. Xi has demonstrated in the past that he doesn't like or understand free markets.

A number of countries are dumping US Treasury bonds. Since 2022, China alone has shed $350 billion of US debt. America has to offer higher interest rates on long-term bonds due to perceived risk by investors.

I am overweight in physical silver, and precious metal mining shares. Screw dollars.

11 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

I don't think BRICS has been suppressed. Without China BRICS doesn't amount to much. And who's going to trust China? It doesn't let the Yuan float freely and it's subject to capital controls. Xi has demonstrated in the past that he doesn't like or understand free markets.

Are you kidding ? Trump is applying tariffs to the penguins on Heard Island. Xi is aggressively lowering tariffs to all and sundry, in order to pull them into China's orbit.

If anyone has a trust deficit now, it's America.

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

A number of countries are dumping US Treasury bonds. Since 2022, China alone has shed $350 billion of US debt. America has to offer higher interest rates on long-term bonds due to perceived risk by investors.

I am overweight in physical silver, and precious metal mining shares. Screw dollars.

A major point and well observed (and mostly overlooked). Long term US interest rates are being determined by "market forces" and not by the "FED".

19 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

I don't think BRICS has been suppressed. Without China BRICS doesn't amount to much. And who's going to trust China? It doesn't let the Yuan float freely and it's subject to capital controls. Xi has demonstrated in the past that he doesn't like or understand free markets.

We'll see. We do indeed "live in interesting times". As we see western governments opening communications with China and tentative bridge building China may shift position. The quite astonishing rise in Chinese tourists all over will I believe have an effect. Exposure to other cultures always does.

I've noticed a difference in SEA regarding chinese tourists in just 5 years. It used to be they literally bussed around en masse, were oblivious to others and behaved like they were in Disneyland. Now I'm coming across chinese travelling as individuals especially the youth element and are far more friendly and open to interaction.

20 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

A number of countries are dumping US Treasury bonds. Since 2022, China alone has shed $350 billion of US debt. America has to offer higher interest rates on long-term bonds due to perceived risk by investors.

I am overweight in physical silver, and precious metal mining shares. Screw dollars.

Fine. More power to your investments. But at the end of the day, your "commodities" will be valued in form of US$.

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Are you kidding ? Trump is applying tariffs to the penguins on Heard Island. Xi is aggressively lowering tariffs to all and sundry, in order to pull them into China's orbit.

If anyone has a trust deficit now, it's America.

I think it's more of a mixed bag with China. A lot of the tariffs they're lowing are for industrial inputs. And they've also raised some tariffs on some high tech stuff and chemicals. And also on dairy products.

And the economy is still structured to subsidize exports. And the exchange rate is tightly controlled.

1 hour ago, Alan Zweibel said:

And who's going to trust China?

Canada ?

5 minutes ago, blaze master said:

Canada ?

I doubt we're even close to that yet but opening communications is not a bad move. China is best not to be ignored.

6 minutes ago, Chutney said:

I doubt we're even close to that yet but opening communications is not a bad move. China is best not to be ignored.

Maybe check the news. Canada made a trade deal with China yesterday.

Just now, blaze master said:

Maybe check the news. Canada made a trade deal with China yesterday.

A deal with more holes than the roof of a village home in rural Loei. Canada had to drop its tariffs on EVs (50,000) vehicles in return for China considering it might invest in Canada's auto sector, and that it might reduce tariffs on canola in March. There was no agreement to lift the ban on the import of Canadian beef and pork. The Chinese tariffs on peas and seafood will remain for 2026. Canada is subject a damaging trade deficit with China, and this trade deal was an act of desperation by Carney, forced indirectly because of Trump. It's a warning to the USA, that the more the USA pushes Canada, the more it will pivot to China. The agreement will also damage the Canadian auto industry in the short term in hopes that the Chinese will invest, thereby replacing the US dominance. I don't think they will.

And then there is Canada's decision long ago to dispose of all of its gold assets. The Canadian government does not have a strategic gold reserve. This is contrary to all the people who are promoting holding gold.

4 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

A deal with more holes than the roof of a village home in rural Loei. Canada had to drop its tariffs on EVs (50,000) vehicles in return for China considering it might invest in Canada's auto sector, and that it might reduce tariffs on canola in March. There was no agreement to lift the ban on the import of Canadian beef and pork. The Chinese tariffs on peas and seafood will remain for 2026. Canada is subject a damaging trade deficit with China, and this trade deal was an act of desperation by Carney, forced indirectly because of Trump. It's a warning to the USA, that the more the USA pushes Canada, the more it will pivot to China. The agreement will also damage the Canadian auto industry in the short term in hopes that the Chinese will invest, thereby replacing the US dominance. I don't think they will.

And then there is Canada's decision long ago to dispose of all of its gold assets. The Canadian government does not have a strategic gold reserve. This is contrary to all the people who are promoting holding gold.

I dont see much point in China investing in the auto industry in Canada.

A while back China was supposed to be Canada's number one enemy....well according to Carney that is.

8 hours ago, swissie said:

Fine. More power to your investments. But at the end of the day, your "commodities" will be valued in form of US$.

My commodities will be valued in AUD. The exchange rate for AUD has increased by 7.9% against the USD over the last year.

Gold is a psyop, like craptocurrency.

I never advise my clients to buy physical gold. There is the problem of storage for one thing. Thievery is another.

If you want gold xposure just buy an ETF heavily weighted in gold miners.

Never bet against America and the USD.

18 minutes ago, Woke to Sounds said:

Gold is a psyop, like craptocurrency.

I never advise my clients to buy physical gold. There is the problem of storage for one thing. Thievery is another.

If you want gold xposure just buy an ETF heavily weighted in gold miners.

Never bet against America and the USD.

America has 735 km of high speed rail, top commercial speed 240 km/hr. China has more than 45000 km of high speed rail, top speed 350 km/hr.

America has a global trade deficit of about $900 billion. China has a global trade surplus of more than $1 trillion.

I bought physical silver and shares in a rare earth miner when Trump was inaugurated for the second time, because I could see what was coming.

Both have tripled in value. Can you say the same for the clients you are advising?

8 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

A deal with more holes than the roof of a village home in rural Loei. Canada had to drop its tariffs on EVs (50,000) vehicles in return for China considering it might invest in Canada's auto sector, and that it might reduce tariffs on canola in March. There was no agreement to lift the ban on the import of Canadian beef and pork. The Chinese tariffs on peas and seafood will remain for 2026. Canada is subject a damaging trade deficit with China, and this trade deal was an act of desperation by Carney, forced indirectly because of Trump. It's a warning to the USA, that the more the USA pushes Canada, the more it will pivot to China. The agreement will also damage the Canadian auto industry in the short term in hopes that the Chinese will invest, thereby replacing the US dominance. I don't think they will.

And then there is Canada's decision long ago to dispose of all of its gold assets. The Canadian government does not have a strategic gold reserve. This is contrary to all the people who are promoting holding gold.

8 hours ago, blaze master said:

I dont see much point in China investing in the auto industry in Canada.

A while back China was supposed to be Canada's number one enemy....well according to Carney that is.

A couple of years ago people here were betting against Chinese EV's and today they make up a quarter of all new car sales and that's increasing.

I see a problem with Canada allowing Chinese EV's. There is a quota on them and it's under 3% of all new car sales initially increasing to user 4%. The Canadian population are going to love them and pretty soon will be hitting that quota. Citizen demand will force the government to do something and I think we'll see something like what Thailand has done. That will mean factories in Canada and something like import quota increased as long as you commit to build them.

The other thing of note, is Americans will start to see superior EV's on their doorstep and that will pressure the American administration.

I think Carney has been incredibly clever in what he's done. The Canadian auto industry will transition to Chinese EV's & pivot away from American cars, exactly what's happening here with Japanese cars.

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

A couple of years ago people here were betting against Chinese EV's and today they make up a quarter of all new car sales and that's increasing.

I see a problem with Canada allowing Chinese EV's. There is a quota on them and it's under 3% of all new car sales initially increasing to user 4%. The Canadian population are going to love them and pretty soon will be hitting that quota. Citizen demand will force the government to do something and I think we'll see something like what Thailand has done. That will mean factories in Canada and something like import quota increased as long as you commit to build them.

The other thing of note, is Americans will start to see superior EV's on their doorstep and that will pressure the American administration.

I think Carney has been incredibly clever in what he's done. The Canadian auto industry will transition to Chinese EV's & pivot away from American cars, exactly what's happening here with Japanese cars.

Why would China want to deal with all of the garbage that came along with operating in canada? Way too much headache and higher production costs than back in China.

Ontario is in horrible shape and I can't see China ever paying the salaries that will be demanded by the auto workers.

Canada needs to replace the American auto factories. You may be right on the salaries, time will tell.

I do see a pivot from US autos to Chinese EV's.

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

Canada needs to replace the American auto factories. You may be right on the salaries, time will tell.

I do see a pivot from US autos to Chinese EV's.

Chinese EV's have clear advantages in battery technology and operating systems. The number of companies in China manufacturing EV's is 10 times that of America.

However, the elephant in the room is pricing. An EV in China which costs $30,000 is between $45000 and $60,000 in America, for a comparable vehicle.

45 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Chinese EV's have clear advantages in battery technology and operating systems. The number of companies in China manufacturing EV's is 10 times that of America.

However, the elephant in the room is pricing. An EV in China which costs $30,000 is between $45000 and $60,000 in America, for a comparable vehicle.

Have you seen the new tariff's for Canada on Chinese Ev's? They're going to be cheap in Canada

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

A couple of years ago people here were betting against Chinese EV's and today they make up a quarter of all new car sales and that's increasing.

I see a problem with Canada allowing Chinese EV's. There is a quota on them and it's under 3% of all new car sales initially increasing to user 4%. The Canadian population are going to love them and pretty soon will be hitting that quota. Citizen demand will force the government to do something and I think we'll see something like what Thailand has done. That will mean factories in Canada and something like import quota increased as long as you commit to build them.

The other thing of note, is Americans will start to see superior EV's on their doorstep and that will pressure the American administration.

I think Carney has been incredibly clever in what he's done. The Canadian auto industry will transition to Chinese EV's & pivot away from American cars, exactly what's happening here with Japanese cars.

Trump did not have anything negative to say about the Canadian deal, and was understanding of it. This suggests that the USA is going to try for something similar.

I will be surprised if the Canadian market embraces the Chinese EVs. There are cultural obstacles. The 3 biggest Canadian markets for EV are BC, QC and ON. BC isn't particularly pro PRC. Ontario will probably see boycotts and Quebec is tapped out in the EV network. Quebec has a new consumer regulation patterned on European rules that mandates pre-sale disclosure of product repairability (parts, services, info availability) and prohibits planned obsolescence, giving consumers information to fix goods themselves, with specific new legal warranty durations (e.g., 6 years for fridges, 3 for computers) and rules for vehicle repair estimates. I can't see how the Chinese will comply. On top of it, you need a dealer network, and as much as the auto dealers have created regional monopolies with one firm owning dealerships for many brands, it will require investment in the servicing equipment and training of service personnel. That could take a year. And then there are the safety standards. Aside from having similar safety regs as the USA, there are additional requirements for winter use.I don't know if too many Canadians will be running out to buy unproven vehicles that don't have a dealer network in place.

6 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Trump did not have anything negative to say about the Canadian deal, and was understanding of it. This suggests that the USA is going to try for something similar.

I will be surprised if the Canadian market embraces the Chinese EVs. There are cultural obstacles. The 3 biggest Canadian markets for EV are BC, QC and ON. BC isn't particularly pro PRC. Ontario will probably see boycotts and Quebec is tapped out in the EV network. Quebec has a new consumer regulation patterned on European rules that mandates pre-sale disclosure of product repairability (parts, services, info availability) and prohibits planned obsolescence, giving consumers information to fix goods themselves, with specific new legal warranty durations (e.g., 6 years for fridges, 3 for computers) and rules for vehicle repair estimates. I can't see how the Chinese will comply. On top of it, you need a dealer network, and as much as the auto dealers have created regional monopolies with one firm owning dealerships for many brands, it will require investment in the servicing equipment and training of service personnel. That could take a year. And then there are the safety standards. Aside from having similar safety regs as the USA, there are additional requirements for winter use.I don't know if too many Canadians will be running out to buy unproven vehicles that don't have a dealer network in place.

Your argument seems to be that because a car company has to begin somewhere, it can't begin at all. How does the situation in Canada differ from the situation in Europe a few years ago? BYD entered the European passenger car market in 2021 in Norway.

Today it is the 3rd largest EV make in Europe and is growing the fastest. It had triple digit growth in 2025 ranging from 167% to 225% depending on the month.. And this despite the tariff of 27% . Most of Tesla's EVs for sale in the EU are manufactured in Germany so don't have to pay a tariff. Even those that are manufactured in China pay a tariff of only 17.8%

Right now, the chief constraint is that only 49,000 vehicles from China will pay a low tariff. But given the likelihood of strong demand, I'd bet that the big Chinese players will build plants in Canada to avoid paying high tariffs.

Already 3 chinese manufacturers, including Volvo, Polestar, and Tesla are approved as roadworthy in Canada.

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Chinese EV's have clear advantages in battery technology and operating systems. The number of companies in China manufacturing EV's is 10 times that of America.

However, the elephant in the room is pricing. An EV in China which costs $30,000 is between $45000 and $60,000 in America, for a comparable vehicle.

There are plenty of EVs in China that sell for a lot less. than $30,000.

2 hours ago, blaze master said:

Why would China want to deal with all of the garbage that came along with operating in canada? Way too much headache and higher production costs than back in China.

Ontario is in horrible shape and I can't see China ever paying the salaries that will be demanded by the auto workers.

From Gemini AI:

2. How Robotics Drives the Cost Gap

The cost difference isn't just about cheaper labor; it's about how robots are deployed to eliminate waste and speed up the "factory-to-driveway" timeline.

• Vertical Integration & Automation: Companies like BYD manufacture their own batteries and semiconductors using in-house robotics. By removing third-party suppliers, they capture the margin at every step. This integration reduces battery-related manufacturing defects by 40%.

• "Dark Factories": China has aggressively pioneered factories that can run with minimal lighting and heating because they are 100% operated by robots in key areas. For example, Xiaomi’s Beijing Superfactory utilizes over 700 robots for everything from stamping to final quality checks.

• Scale of Installation: In 2024–2025, China installed nearly 300,000 industrial robots—roughly ten times the volume of the United States. This "mass-automation" brings the per-unit cost of robotics down, making it cheaper for a small Chinese factory to automate than for a mid-sized American one.

How many Canadian automotive manufacturers are there?