Picture courtesy of Bangkokpost

Thailand’s tourism confidence index declined year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, signalling a slower-than-expected recovery for the sector as flooding, regional tensions and currency strength weighed on travel demand. The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) said the dip reflected continued fragility despite an improvement from the previous quarter.

According to the TCT, the tourism confidence index stood at 72 in the final quarter of 2025, down from 75 a year earlier, though higher than the 66 recorded in the third quarter. The survey, conducted among 740 tourism operators between 10 November and 10 December, showed confidence remained well below the pre-pandemic benchmark of 100.

The council’s president, Chai Arunanondchai, said 2025 had been a challenging year overall, even though conditions improved during the high season. Measures such as the domestic co-payment scheme and a calendar of events were unable to fully counteract negative pressures affecting travel.

One major setback was severe flooding in Hat Yai in November, which disrupted travel and significantly affected the Malaysian market. In December, the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia further undermined foreign tourist confidence, according to the TCT.

Currency movements also played a role, with the baht strengthening against the US dollar and other currencies. Mr Chai said this prompted some travellers to choose alternative destinations, while competition from Japan and Vietnam continued to intensify.

Regionally, all parts of Thailand except the central and western regions recorded a year-on-year fall in tourism confidence during the quarter. By business type, entertainment businesses posted the lowest confidence index at 60, while restaurants achieved the highest at 78.

Tourism operators reported revenues recovering to only 50% of pre-pandemic levels. Employment rebounded to 81% of pre-Covid levels, down from 87% in the third quarter, as operators limited new hiring and investment.

Hotels and accommodation nationwide recorded an average occupancy rate of 55%, with the southern region performing best at 66%. In terms of spending, Thai tourists spent an average of 3,906 baht per trip, staying 2.4 nights, while foreign visitors spent 51,286 baht per person with an average stay of 10.7 nights.

For the first quarter of 2026, the TCT forecasts the tourism confidence index will rise to 80, with international arrivals reaching 9.3 million. Growth is expected to be driven mainly by European visitors and travel linked to the Chinese New Year.

Bangkokpost reported that the council warned of ongoing risks including PM2.5 air pollution, geopolitical disputes, China’s sluggish economy and rising service and travel costs. It projects 34 million foreign arrivals in 2026, below the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s target of 36.7 million.

Key Takeaways

• Thailand’s tourism confidence index fell to 72 in Q4 2025, down year-on-year but improving from the previous quarter.

• Flooding, border tensions and a strong baht continued to dampen travel demand and operator confidence.

• The TCT expects a modest recovery in early 2026 but sees significant risks remaining.

  

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkokpost 2026-01-29

 

 

And suddenly the THB is weakening now, but the damage is done....And still Thailand doesn't see the importance of foreign tourists. Average spending of THai tourists is 1500 THB a day and foreign tourists 4.700 a day. So Thailand need more foreigners so why don't they treat them as criminals instead of guests? Why make the country so expensive sometimes even more than European destinations, and with the border clashes, and the upcoming elections THailand is not inviting tourists..

Yes they have only got themselves to blame baht, overpricing, visa issues and vietnam being proactive

Ironically their open border policy has had the opposite effect - as disastrous set of trash visitors is making the place less desirable.

Soft policing , that is seemingly only obsessed with Helmet fines, isn't helping serve justice to violent criminals

Vietnam is taking many visitors.

Not only flooding and the strong baht what about the way they have treated many tourists this winter, I would think that will influence many to try other destinations.

The strong baht is first,second & third reason for Thailand's tourist decline. How on earth do you maintain the Baht rate so high for ppl from developed advanced economies like UK. Recently as low as 41. Thailand is not an advanced economy but a strongly emerging and developing one. When Brits were buying up Thai property before and in early 2010s baht £ rate was circa 55.

Another thing a high baht surely must damage Thai exports? ( of course Tourism here is a form of exports like UK earns millions of £££ on fees from richer foreign students).

I guess rich Thai owners get more revenue from high priced exports but also can purchase foreign assets at lower prices.

and this was before the cranes started falling...

Yes, Thailand tourism had disappointing and tough year 2025.

Quite strange that in mid-Jan and late-Jan 2026, Pattaya appeared surprisingly busy, even year-end holiday vacationers had already left and returned home by then.

55% - 65% occupancy during high season? What's wrong with that picture? (sarcasm)

This is how the TCT/TAT come up with the tourist visitor numbers they publish.

On 1/30/2026 at 8:25 AM, peter48 said:

When Brits were buying up Thai property before and in early 2010s baht £ rate was circa 55.

I remember the rate at 70 to the pound in 2005.

19 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

I remember the rate at 70 to the pound in 2005.

It was 70 when I bought the house in November 2006