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The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us

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  • Popular Post

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and threatening the global economy

In the weeks before the latest attacks, a certain degree of complacency had taken hold in global oil markets. Gulf oil producers were reassured by U.S. officials that retaliatory attacks on their soil, if they were to happen, would likely be limited to U.S. bases, according to Arab Gulf officials. Iran wouldn’t go after their energy infrastructure or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, they were told. After all, the chokepoint had remained open during last June’s Israeli-U.S. 12-day bombing of Iran. 

https://archive.ph/OVvaQ#selection-2163.0-2163.158

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/persian-gulf-oil-squeeze-d9a39190?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

This is bizarre. As even I noted elsewhere, and I'm far from alone in this, that if Iran was faced with an existential threat, it would make sense to go after oil and gas production of its neighbors.. And now that Trump has made it absolutely clear that nothing less than unconditional surrender will do, continuing with this strategy is their only hope.

According to the article you'll see that even if Iran were to surrender today, there will still be long term consequences. Once shut down, oil fields and LNG liquefaction plants can't start producing immediately, It can take weeks to get them going. And oil fields can suffer permanent damage once they're shut in. So their flow will be less on resumption.

And it isn't just oil and gas that's affected. Much of the world's fertilizer is also manufactured in this region. So world agriculture will take a hit as well.

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  • Is that the infamous Trumpian "two weeks"? Does he even have a concept of a plan? As far as I know, the MSM talking heads are not the major players in the crude futures market. It's the market player

  • DJT Says don't be fools: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116196014942465383 Safety and Peace brought to you by u-know-hoo

  • spidermike007
    spidermike007

    I'm a little confused, isn't this the man who from every pulpit that he could find, promised to tackle inflation and bring prices down for the average American? His supporters are mysteriously silent

Posted Images

Inflation will rise for sure.

Transport - means in general all goods - will drive up prices on everything. Electricity prices will soar heavily too in Thailand. Lucky those who have a PV installation. If you are still wondering if you should or shouldn't - now is the moment to start.

"Stupid" examples

  • Aspirin consists of 35% petroleum. (Acetylsalicylic acid -> Benzene)

  • up to 40% of a smartphone is made out of oil

  • tires, candles, polyester (plastics in general) etc.

  • 1 barrel oil = only about 80 plastic cups! Just imagine what is used daily only in Thailand

The listing could go on and on. So be prepared for rising prices.

  • Popular Post

I'm a little confused, isn't this the man who from every pulpit that he could find, promised to tackle inflation and bring prices down for the average American?

His supporters are mysteriously silent in this regard, and I wonder what they're thinking at this point, as they watch the price of gas, oil and other commodities skyrocket, while the value of their retirement funds diminish due to a collapsing stock market.

Was it worth it? Was getting an Ayatollah, who is far younger, and more of a hardliner than his father worth it Don?

If military targets are too hard you go after the energy.

Iran is right to destroy all oil and gas production and transport out.

Trump is going to do the same to Iran's infrastructure.

The 5-mile strip of land known as Kharg Island is home to Iran’s most important oil facility,

an export terminal in the Persian Gulf that handles up to 90 percent of the nation’s (Iran) crude.

Should attack SA pipeline to the red sea too.

  • Author
36 minutes ago, Schoggibueb said:

Inflation will rise for sure.

Transport - means in general all goods - will drive up prices on everything. Electricity prices will soar heavily too in Thailand. Lucky those who have a PV installation. If you are still wondering if you should or shouldn't - now is the moment to start.

"Stupid" examples

  • Aspirin consists of 35% petroleum. (Acetylsalicylic acid -> Benzene)

  • up to 40% of a smartphone is made out of oil

  • tires, candles, polyester (plastics in general) etc.

  • 1 barrel oil = only about 80 plastic cups! Just imagine what is used daily only in Thailand

The listing could go on and on. So be prepared for rising prices.

Just a quibble but shis is false or at best misleading: "1 barrel oil = only about 80 plastic cups"

Most of the petroleum in a barrel of oil goes to produce energy. On average only a small amount goes to make plastic cups. That's the basis of the claim.

I think this is the one that just got deleted, (snaps of shipping lanes) so SoH not completely shut down, though AI stated 94% shut down. Source for screenshot ... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:25.0/zoom:4

Unlike I suspected, posted in different thread, I think, tankers that are operating, aren't all Iranian, and info at link. Also a few more, than when I peeked earlier. Maybe the new leader has called off retaliatory strikes against USA & allies.

image.png

  • Popular Post

The traffic through Hormuz is very close to zero. Stock exchanges are crashing, commodity prices are skyrocketing. Global recession is looming.

Be sure to thank the idiot behind it all!

Only nine commercial ships detected crossing Hormuz Strait since Monday

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260306-only-nine-commercial-ships-detected-crossing-the-hormuz-strait-since-monday

  • Popular Post
10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I think this is the one that just got deleted, (snaps of shipping lanes) so SoH not completely shut down, though AI stated 94% shut down. Source for screenshot ... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:25.0/zoom:4

Unlike I suspected, posted in different thread, I think, tankers that are operating, aren't all Iranian, and info at link. Also a few more, than when I peeked earlier. Maybe the new leader has called off retaliatory strikes against USA & allies.

image.png

I don't know what the point of your post is, other than to confirm that the traffic through Hormuz is approaching zero, and that this is obviously a massive hit to the world economy.

Was that what you wanted to point out?

  • Author
9 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I think this is the one that just got deleted, (snaps of shipping lanes) so SoH not completely shut down, though AI stated 94% shut down. Source for screenshot ... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:25.0/zoom:4

Unlike I suspected, posted in different thread, I think, tankers that are operating, aren't all Iranian, and info at link. Also a few more, than when I peeked earlier. Maybe the new leader has called off retaliatory strikes against USA & allies.

image.png

I went to that website. Here's their latest closeup of the strait of Hormuz:

image.png

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.1/centery:26.0/zoom:8

Looks like almost nothing is going through.

11 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

I went to that website. Here's their latest closeup of the strait of Hormuz:

image.png

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.1/centery:26.0/zoom:8

Looks like almost nothing is going through.

They're probably operating on a skelton crew and the sun is only now just coming up.

Don't know what you all expect to happen in a war zone.

22 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

I don't know what the point of your post is, other than to confirm that the traffic through Hormuz is approaching zero, and that this is obviously a massive hit to the world economy.

Was that what you wanted to point out?

A week or 2 without oil deliveries, isn't a hit to the world economies. Stop reading MSM's doom & gloom.

Only a hit to corporate profits, as they were probably hoping to gouge customers for months to come.

  • Popular Post
25 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

A week or 2 without oil deliveries, isn't a hit to the world economies. Stop reading MSM's doom & gloom.

Only a hit to corporate profits, as they were probably hoping to gouge customers for months to come.

Is that the infamous Trumpian "two weeks"? Does he even have a concept of a plan?

As far as I know, the MSM talking heads are not the major players in the crude futures market. It's the market players who have run up near and longer term crude contracts. Perhaps they know more than Trump about crude pricing.

Trump has no clue how long the Strait will be closed. He doesn't even know what's next in the war he started. Neither does he know how much additional damage Iran might do to other GCC nation's production, such as taking out GOSPs or destroying refineries. A damaged refinery can be put back in service in months; a new refinery takes a decade to build.

Trump is also destroying Iran's production, so that will be production off line for years, affecting prices on the margin.

Iran doesn't need a navy to close the straits. A few mines, or even a Boston Whaler with a few guys carrying RPG7s can set a ULCC ablaze.

Maybe the oil spike lasts a few weeks, but Iran shows no signs of caving or taco-ing, and major crude traders are not seeing this spike as a short term phenomenon..

4 minutes ago, Wingate said:

Trump is also destroying Iran's production, so that will be production off line for years, affecting prices on the margin.

Pretty sure only CN cares about Iran's oil production, as it's suspected (by AI) they buy 90% of it. IMHO (no source required for my opinion)

Google it, if you think screenshot is fake ..

image.png

Here's a little tidbit most ignore, but MSM pushes the opposite, bit fester that doom & gloom headling or 'SoH closed' ...

image.png

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-opec-oil-prices-economic-impact-explained/a-76176495#:~:text=How%20much%20oil%20does%20Iran,revenues%2C%20according%20to%20EIA%20estimates.

  • Author
  • Popular Post
20 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Pretty sure only CN cares about Iran's oil production, as it's suspected (by AI) they buy 90% of it. IMHO (no source required for my opinion)

Google it, if you think screenshot is fake ..

image.png

Here's a little tidbit most ignore, but MSM pushes the opposite, bit fester that doom & gloom headling or 'SoH closed' ...

image.png

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-opec-oil-prices-economic-impact-explained/a-76176495#:~:text=How%20much%20oil%20does%20Iran,revenues%2C%20according%20to%20EIA%20estimates.

The idea that only China would care about the loss of Iranian oil doesn't make sense.

22 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Here's a little tidbit most ignore, but MSM pushes the opposite, bit fester that doom & gloom headling or 'SoH closed' ...

image.png

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-opec-oil-prices-economic-impact-explained/a-76176495#:~:text=How%20much%20oil%20does%20Iran,revenues%2C%20according%20to%20EIA%20estimates.

Are you living in an alternate reality? This article was published on Mar 2. Do you understand that since then the "doom & gloom" is actually now a reality? That Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz.

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

Maybe the new leader has called off retaliatory strikes against USA & allies.

Maybe they have nothing left

The Venezuelans are happy/

Im still waiting for the entire world to flame out because of tarriffs, and Baracks beachfront to wash away from Global Warming. THE SKY IS FALLING

  • Author
1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

They're probably operating on a skelton crew and the sun is only now just coming up.

Don't know what you all expect to happen in a war zone.

What is the relevance of the time of day?

6 hours ago, Schoggibueb said:

1 barrel oil = only about 80 plastic cups! Just imagine what is used daily only in Thailand

Yes that is stupid. How big is a plastic cup.

I barrel is 159 litres (WHY?) so unless the cups are 500ml.................

  • Popular Post
1 hour ago, BLMFem said:

The traffic through Hormuz is very close to zero. Stock exchanges are crashing, commodity prices are skyrocketing. Global recession is looming.

Be sure to thank the idiot behind it all!

Only nine commercial ships detected crossing Hormuz Strait since Monday

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260306-only-nine-commercial-ships-detected-crossing-the-hormuz-strait-since-monday

Stock exchanges are crashing?

4 minutes ago, khaosokman said:

Stock exchanges are crashing?

And whose fault is that

31 minutes ago, scottiejohn said:

And whose fault is that

The same guy who wants a weeker Dollar. Unfortunatly for him, the dollar is rising against all currencies since a week except the Canadian Dollar...

grafik.png

Does anybody have an idea why the CAD is rising against the USD? Because of the oil that they have?

21 minutes ago, Schoggibueb said:

The same guy who wants a weeker Dollar. Unfortunatly for him, the dollar is rising against all currencies since a week except the Canadian Dollar...

grafik.png

Does anybody have an idea why the CAD is rising against the USD? Because of the oil that they have?

How come you are not sure?

@BLMFem

Crashing ... you guys are hilarious.

Don't know about the rest of the world, but I kind of like where the weak $ is going, back up as of late

image.png

S&P 500 doing it's usual average 10% +/- yearly gain

image.png

Dow Jones up also ...

image.png

Commodities Index ...

image.png

Inflation & energy prices ...

image.png

image.png

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

@BLMFem

Crashing ... you guys are hilarious.

Don't know about the rest of the world, but I kind of like where the weak $ is going, back up as of late

image.png

S&P 500 doing it's usual average 10% +/- yearly gain

image.png

Dow Jones up also ...

image.png

Commodities Index ...

image.png

Inflation & energy prices ...

image.png

image.png

Cherry picking much again.

The DOW was over 50K before the war started, and what has the Thai baht exchange rate of the day to do with the value of the USD?

image.png

This is since your hero was inaugurated.

image.png

3 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Cherry picking much again.

The DOW was over 50K before the war started, and what has the Thai baht exchange rate of the day to do with the value of the USD?

image.png

This is since your hero was inaugurated.

image.png

No cherry picking, read what I posted. I live in TH, don't care about the rest of the world. Someone mentioned the weak $$$

Baht moving back up ... as of late ~2% Only care what the USD / TBH is during the 1st week of the month. The average for about the past 19 years, is ฿30 to 35 / $1

image.png

5.66% w00t cheesy

As long as it stays 'average' ... I'm happy. YMMV

Markets, unless a day trader, people hold them long term, and that has an average up ~10% yearly, for as long as I've been alive. Your graph show down 1.12% / 1.28% / 1.15%, since when ? 2 weeks ... yea, markets don't like uncertainty. Are you new at this ???

Your joking right ... 1.28% OMG ... "in the bunker honey, the world is ending" coffee1

23 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Your graph show down 1.12% / 1.28% / 1.15%, since when ? 2 weeks ... yea, markets don't like uncertainty. Are you new at this ???

Your joking right ... 1.28% OMG ... "in the bunker honey, the world is ending" coffee1

Learn to read, and not just deflecting and be ignorant to claim you know it all

The graph showed 1.28%, since already 1.67%. TODAY. I thought you were such a stock market expert, at least that is what you always claim, but you don't know how to read a market stat?

This is just 1 month.

image.png

48 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Cherry picking much again.

The DOW was over 50K before the war started, and what has the Thai baht exchange rate of the day to do with the value of the USD?

image.png

This is since your hero was inaugurated.

image.png

A 1% fall is normal. A crash is 30% or more BLM is an idiot. So many dumb people online.

  • Popular Post
2 minutes ago, khaosokman said:

A 1% fall is normal. A crash is 30% or more BLM is an idiot. So many dumb people online.

It's down almost 7% Susan/harrisfan

5 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Learn to read, and not just deflecting and be ignorant to claim you know it all

The graph showed 1.28%, since already 1.67%. TODAY. I thought you were such a stock market expert, at least that is what you always claim, but you don't know how to read a market stat?

This is just 1 month.

image.png

This is what I saw, and this is what I wrote

image.png

"Your graph show down 1.12% / 1.28% / 1.15%,"

1.67% in one month ... you obviously aren't in the markets, or you'd realize how irrelevant that is. Now who's cherry picking.

Dow & Jones index is not a good representation of the market, only 30 stocks, and they change them up. S & P 500 is much better gauge of things. Personally the 'market' is all BS anyway. But if you are going to use it, do try to understand it.

The market is long term for most people, and a very safe investment ...

image.png

Myself ... Market expert, not sure about that, but I did retire at 45/46 yr old, due to my savvy market investing. Not long term, holding them, but day trading high risk speculative stocks & options.

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