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Is the potential reward for the Iran invasion worth it?

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Trump has grossly overestimated the Iran nuclear threat as there are multiple independent agencies that have said their capacity was nearly destroyed last year, as Trump himself stated at the time.

In a desperate bid to win over favor of the American public the Administration has switched stories completely and now it's not about nuclear deterrence but rather about regime change. Since America has not won a war in 81 years, one has to wonder if regime change is possible, and if the US can influence it on any level.

The other aspect of this one has to ponder is whether or not the price that's being paid is worth it. The average person is being harmed by this invasion through increasing prices on gas, oil and many commodities. In addition there's the security aspect. Many are now saying that within a few weeks Iran will exhaust it's supply of drones. So what happens at that point? Will Iran's proxy armies awaken their sleeper cells and start wreaking destruction on New York City and Chicago? Will Iran use its cyber capacity to start harming US economic interests? Will China or Russia decide to get involved by rearming Iran?

There are an infinite number of questions and an infinite number of variables here that Trump nor his very small-minded minions do not seem to have considered. It appears that Trump was caught completely off guard when Iran rained down missiles on Gulf States, dramatically increasing The economic consequences of this invasion.

And now while oil prices are skyrocketing stock prices are tumbling. It's somewhat bewildering to imagine how Trump is going to be able to claim victory for this.

Brent futures spiked 26.1% to $116.08, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 27.6% to $116.03. The jump in oil prices is the largest one day gain since late 1988, according to LSEG data.

The surge comes after major Middle Eastern oil producers, including Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, cut oil production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.

U.S. stock futures also tumbled on higher oil prices, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down over 800 points or 1.75% lower.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.59%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slid 1.6%.

Asia markets tumble as oil nears $120 a barrel; marks largest one day gain in almost 40 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/nikkei-225-hang-seng-index-kospi-crude-wti-brent-oil-futures-iran-war-gulf-hormuz.html?__source=androidappshare

No, you tiny minded imbecile, only billionaires and centi millionaires are willing to weather the storm that you have once again created, through astonishing levels of hubris, arrogance, overestimation of America, overestimation of American military forces, and sheer ignorance and sadism.

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Well, considering that the US has yet to declare with any consistency quite what it sees as the rewards - they seem to change daily if not more frequently, whilst the rest of the world is very aware that their collective economy is being trashed by a war started in order to deflect from increasingly convincing evidence of Trump's past predatory hebophile antics; I would suggest that the answer is no!

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Now someone (the US denies it was them) has attacked an Iranian water desalination plant and Iran’s oil infrastructure.

The Iranian’s have basically intimated that it is now open day on those same facilities in other gulf states.

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I get how this is a tough issue.

On the one hand, no one country should have the right to tell another sovereign nation how they run their matters.

On the other hand, everyone in the world knows those mad dogs in charge of Iran wouldn't hesitate to pull the nuclear trigger, so they should not have such a weapon.

My heart breaks for the Iranian people. I've worked with a few and found them to be some of the sweetest folks I ever met.

1 hour ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I get how this is a tough issue.

On the one hand, no one country should have the right to tell another sovereign nation how they run their matters.

On the other hand, everyone in the world knows those mad dogs in charge of Iran wouldn't hesitate to pull the nuclear trigger, so they should not have such a weapon.

My heart breaks for the Iranian people. I've worked with a few and found them to be some of the sweetest folks I ever met.

In all likelyhood, Iran possesses mustard gas, phosgene, lewisite, VX and Sarin. Quite easy to make, and deploy. Iraq used them, Syrian used them. There is some evidence that towards the end of the Iran-Iraq war, Iran deployed them in a limited manner.

They've had quite sophisticated chemical weapons probably for 30 years. Given Iran's biotech industry, I'd also put biological weapons in the mix as well. The assumption is that the Mullahs, as soon as they got a nuclear weapon, they would use it (against Israel). All of the rockets fired at Israel are packed with conventional explosive, not sarin. Why is that?

Ultimately the desire to possess nuclear weapons is for the same reason as the US, and any other country; to guarantee national survival and sovereignty. When this war is over, and some alternative regime is in place, will that stop them developing or acquiring something? Nope. There is one country on earth that gave up nuclear weapons. That act didn't do Ukraine any favours. If Ukraine still possessed a nuclear arsenal, there is no way Russia would have invaded in 2022., nor in 2014.

“Potential Reward”

AKA. ‘The bird in the bush’ or warm sunlit upland’.

The stuff that never shows up.

The only guarantee is dead bodies.

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4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

58 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

There is one country on earth that gave up nuclear weapons. That act didn't do Ukraine any favours. If Ukraine still possessed a nuclear arsenal, there is no way Russia would have invaded in 2022., nor in 2014.

Not precisely true. South Africa dismantled its five nuclear weapons just before the end of apartheid so they didn't fall into the hands of a Black govt.

AIUI, Ukraine's bombs were manufactured in Russia and deployed in Ukraine. Much as the US keeps nuclear weapons in Turkiye. That's the Middle East. That scares me as it should you. Remember Turkiye has no allegiance as it's not part of the EU.

I'm not so sure if Ukraine kept those weapons when it became an independent state, that the Russian war on Ukraine would have started right then, under a far weaker govt.

Only a nutjob would unleash a nuke. I think Iran will do everything possible to develop a nuke after this little misadventure is over. It was a war with no particular reason, much like all Israel's pre-emptive wars.

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