How Likely Do You Think Another Coup Is ?

[Ricardo]

The elephant in the room, which many posters don't really wish to discuss, is that there may be another coup, before or as a result of the outcome of the forthcoming election.

How likely do TV-members currently believe this is ?

[Mobi]

If PPP get enough seats, with their coalition partners, to form a government then it is very likely.

However, it would seem that an alternative strategy may be for the EC to ban the party (post election) due to electoral fraud, rule breaking etc.

But if this were to happen there may be such unrest in the country that a coup may still be 'necessary' to maintain good order.

If the Democrats and partners form the next government, then they will be allowed to govern, within the remit of the military masters.

[PhilHarries]

Agree with Mobi, the generals cannot allow any opportunity for Thaksin to return with any form of powerbase and a chance to get even. The only hope is that HM's wishes for unity are heeded and some form of compromise solution is worked out. Another likely scenario is that they will declare the election null and void due to electoral irregularities and proceed with another caretaker government. This risks a showdown on the international scene unless the EU monitors agree that the election result is fraudulent.

Whatever, we hope for a peaceful solution.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Very unlikely. I see the results of the election to be a Democrat led coalition.

[chanchao]

Well.. If a coup depends on if the election results in the military-favoured (some might say puppets) to be elected, then what's the value of an election anyway.. It's just a facade in that case, with no matter who gets elected always needing to check back with certain influential figures.

So I didn't vote.. Also, the country is already run by a military junta, so it wouldn't even require another coup, just stepping up the crackdown on democratic forces / the people.

[canuckamuck]

I put unlikely simply because 1 month is a very small time frame. I don't even know if power changes hands as quickly as that. If the question would have simply been will there be another coup? Then I would have said absolutley. If within a year I would have said 50/50.

Edited December 11, 2007 by canuckamuck

[Manchester]

I think the EC will end up banning the PPP.

[Ricardo]

I chose the time-frame because I thought that, if anything was going to kick off because of the election-result, it would be fairly soon afterwards.

Whatever, we hope for a peaceful solution.

Amen to that !

[phutoie2]

I think the EC will end up banning the PPP.

I read the Bangkok Post or the website - 2bangkok.com for some insight into the politics of Thailand.

An article in todays BP states that the PPP is in the lead and once again the voting in Isaan is the key.

If the PPP win the military is unlikely to hand over power.

Interesting times ahead.

Its non-stop canvassing (trucks with the speakers/billboards) in our town.

[macleod101]

its a j/k. i seriously don't think there will be a coup in the next month or two, but to say never again, could not be so..

[dr_Pat_Pong]

its a j/k. i seriously don't think there will be a coup in the next month or two, but to say never again, could not be so..

Agreed.

[torrenova]

It depends upon PPP (aka TRT). If they win, the military will have to regain control and how long will it be before the military can let the people have a vote ? Until Taksin is dead perhaps.

[amphur]

No coup because the power will stay with the military.

The military will do everything to disolve the PPP so they can never form a goverment.

No fair election is possible at this moment.

PPP (Thai Rak Thai) will win majority whenever there is a an election because of their great support in the Esan and North.

The will of the people is not followed.

Whether you like it or not, agree or disagree: the people want PPP (TRT).

[dr_Pat_Pong]

I think the EC will end up banning the PPP.

It is now time for speed.

[SpacemanSpliff]

My feeling is that even among the highest up factions there may not be enough consensus to commit another coup, especially not before the end of January, which makes answering this poll a lot easier: Very unlikely.

Don't forget, the result is not a bad one for the rulers.. Divide & Conquer, and everything is divided up neatly, which HUGE power to the small parties who can command just about anything they dare ask for, thus guaranteeing that no single party becomes too powerful.

All that is needed is to lean on either the small parties to side with the Dems, or in case that somehow fails, lean on the PPP to make any return by Thaksin a very low key event to avoid too much loss of face, 'or else'.

Overall I'm fairly optimistic, I mean relative to the worst case scenario that really nobody has appetite for.

[Travel2003]

Voted unlikely.

At least for the next months (or a year).

The Army men have proberly already told the guys in PPP to behave, or they will step in again.

Just as the Turkish army does with their government.

In addition, the armed forces received a lot of international heat after the coup, since it was a democratic elected (corrupt or not) government they kicked out.

Of course, one might say that they would not care about that since it is an internal matter.

But in todays world, it is easier to push a country out in the cold, since more and more countries want to be part of the modern world.

In the long run, Thailand's military establishment will be looked upon more and more as a "banana republic army", which will create bad publisity for any "western" forces that cooperate with them.

Thailand's armed forces have always tried to become a modern force. They will fall further behind if they continue the way they have.

[chicowoodduck]

No coup because the power will stay with the military.

The military will do everything to disolve the PPP so they can never form a goverment.

No fair election is possible at this moment.

PPP (Thai Rak Thai) will win majority whenever there is a an election because of their great support in the Esan and North.

The will of the people is not followed.

Whether you like it or not, agree or disagree: the people want PPP (TRT).

As long as the military are in control is will be status quo.....aka stuck in neutral and not going anywhere...in the political sense.

[Spee]

No coup because the power will stay with the military.

The military will do everything to disolve the PPP so they can never form a goverment.

No fair election is possible at this moment.

PPP (Thai Rak Thai) will win majority whenever there is a an election because of their great support in the Esan and North.

The will of the people is not followed.

Whether you like it or not, agree or disagree: the people want PPP (TRT).

As long as the military are in control is will be status quo.....aka stuck in neutral and not going anywhere...in the political sense.

I agree. The military has too much power and control. Until it is willing to cede that power and control to the executive, and the executive is ready to serve all of the people fairly, then it could happen again. I give it no better than a coin flip, 50/50. My biggest fear is that if it happens again, then there may be a further swing toward martial law on a broader scale.

[Ricardo]

So, we've reached the end of January, no coup but a PPP-led government installed with no reaction from the military, against the expectations of almost everybody that voted ! Is'nt it nice to be proven wrong ? !

Let's hope that it continues.

Meanwhile, if anybody thinks that another poll might be interesting, on the likelihood of a coup over the next 6 months, over-to-you to start it off !

[Edonista]

I have just voted "no chance at all"...but I guess too easy to vote now

[yorkman]

.

Edited January 31, 2008 by yorkman

[suegha]

I Voted very unlikely, this however, may be wishful thinking. Maybe an other option should have been 'Have not got a clue'! I think it's impossible to predict Thai politics!

[lopburi3]

Thread closed at OP request.