Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[Gnarpjohan]

I am not happy with the many derogatory comments about people from Isaan at this forum. I think the success of PPP can reflect a rational evaluation of pros and cons of the political parties/power structure in Thailand.

For someone making a living as a rice farmer, voting for the party that implements rice subsidies makes sense. The PPP has campaigned on promises of policies for the poor, cheap healthcare, subsidized loans etc, with some credibility on the ability to deliver from TRT's time in power. Even having a party leader like Samak did evidently not keep voters away.

I think it is wrong to brush off the success of PPP as coming from foolish people selling their vote for 200 baht. The rational thing for the Democrats (or perhaps a new party with less political baggage) would be to learn from the success of PPP and offer a competitive, concrete and credible policy platform.

And no, I have no personal ties to Isaan.

[Jingthing]

Also, if the Dems try to annul the election because of vote buying (apparently one statement like this was made on TV yesterday, possibly just sour grapes)

I think the Election Commission can disqualify specific electees based on specific corruption charges, and this applies to all parties, so I hope you are not suggesting there is anything wrong with that. The jury is literally still out on which party will suffer the most from that. Your limited anectodal example considered, I would bet big money that PPP will be the loser in that race.

I love the smell of red cards in the morning.

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

I think it is wrong to brush off the success of PPP as coming from foolish people selling their vote for 200 baht. The rational thing for the Democrats (or perhaps a new party with less political baggage) would be to learn from the success of PPP and offer a competitive, concrete and credible policy platform.

In other words, all the parties should fall over themselves promising the moon, which none of them can deliver. Reminds me of the US ...

[Gnarpjohan]

I think it is wrong to brush off the success of PPP as coming from foolish people selling their vote for 200 baht. The rational thing for the Democrats (or perhaps a new party with less political baggage) would be to learn from the success of PPP and offer a competitive, concrete and credible policy platform.

In other words, all the parties should fall over themselves promising the moon, which none of them can deliver. Reminds me of the US ...

So you have a problem with credible policy platforms? What do you prefer? A fan of military coups?

TRT delivered rice subsidies, 30-baht healthcare, subsidized loans, which goes to credibility. I don't think just promising the moon impresses voters. A promise and a credible way to deliver wins votes.

[Jingthing]

No, just not a fan of leaders who murder their own people. I am funny that way.

I also think you are sugar coating Thaksin's performance. Didn't he give loans to people who couldn't possibly pay them back, and now they are in severe crippling debt?

And the 30 baht scheme, didn't that fail because the hospitals weren't actually funded to provide the proper care for that piddling amount?

Get real. Thaksin intelligently exploited an easily maleable power base.

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[Gnarpjohan]

No, just not a fan of leaders who murder their own people. I am funny that way.

I also think you are sugar coating Thaksin's performance. Didn't he give loans to people who couldn't possibly pay them back, and now they are severe crippling debt?

Neither am I. No fan of Samak, Thaksin or policies that are populist rather than well-considered.

The point I was making is that there are other reasons for the success of the PPP than the alleged stupidity of people in the north and north-east. Or vote-buying.

[valerian]

In other words, all the parties should fall over themselves promising the moon, which none of them can deliver. Reminds me of the US ...

No, just not a fan of leaders who murder their own people. I am funny that way.

I also think you are sugar coating Thaksin's performance. Didn't he give loans to people who couldn't possibly pay them back, and now they are in severe crippling debt?

And the 30 baht scheme, didn't that fail because the hospitals weren't actually funded to provide the proper care for that piddling amount?

Get real. Thaksin intelligently exploited an easily maleable power base.

You're right! It's much better not to make any promises at all. That'll win all the votes.

Silly ppl not understanding such simple issues.

[Jingthing]

I am not sure if they are mostly stupid or mostly not stupid, but I consider when countries fall for strong man leaders like Marcos, Thaksin, Bush, and Franco, they have done a stupid thing.

It is kind of stupid to believe in promises that are more like fairy tales, but politicians do this in many countries.

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[Gnarpjohan]

Get real. Thaksin intelligently exploited an easily maleable power base.

Funny, the voters seem to be giving his party the vote once again. I guess they never learn. Or could it be that you are misinterpreting the situation?

[Jingthing]

Get real. Thaksin intelligently exploited an easily maleable power base.

Funny, the voters seem to be giving his party the vote once again. I guess they never learn. Or could it be that you are misinterpreting the situation?

I don't pretend to know why they did this, but it seems clear that part of the reason was to punish the coup government, and that impulse is well understandable.

And they want their Thaksin back. If they win their Thaksin back of course they should get their Thaksin back, but you know, it isn't over, there are still red cards to issue, and coaltions to be made. The Chao Isaan may not have won after all. We shall see. If they do win, I will say, congratulations to them and good luck to Thailand.

Edited December 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[valerian]

Get real. Thaksin intelligently exploited an easily maleable power base.

Funny, the voters seem to be giving his party the vote once again. I guess they never learn. Or could it be that you are misinterpreting the situation?

I don't pretend to know why they did this, but it seems clear that part of the reason was to punish the coup government, and that impulse is well understandable.

And they want their Thaksin back. If they win their Thaksin back of course they should get their Thaksin back, but you know, it isn't over, there are still red cards to issue, and coaltions to be made. The Chao Isaan may not have won after all. We shall see. If they do win, I will say, congratulations to them and good luck to Thailand.

Ah.. clever enough to want to punish the coup government but dumb enough to believe in fairy tales?

[Jingthing]

Ah.. clever enough to want to punish the coup government but dumb enough to believe in fairy tales?

I never said they were stupid, so don't peg that one on me. Voting based on your perceived self interest is perfectly normal.

[valerian]

It is kind of stupid to believe in promises that are more like fairy tales, but politicians do this in many countries.

Ah.. clever enough to want to punish the coup government but dumb enough to believe in fairy tales?

I never said they were stupid, so don't peg that one on me. Voting based on your perceived self interest is perfectly normal.

So.. now it's not stupid to believe in fairy tales?

[david96]

I disagree with part of what Plus road, especially his opinion that Thaksin is in the past and the people don't want him anymore.

Because that disregards the circumstances: PPP achieved victory IN SPITE OF having to campaign in the most difficult of circumstances; martial law in most of their support-base areas, severe intimidation and restrictions on campaigning, a military controlled smear campagin funded by public money.. And STILL they were victorious..

I dare say 'congratulations' are in order.

Thaksin certainly garnered a fair few million votes for the PPP. Sure Thaksin's popularity has gone down judging by the PPP and Dems both getting 14 million votes which wouldn't have happened a few years ago. To think Thaksin is a thing of the past is something people will do at their own risk. He is still the man of the moment in Thai politics and I wonder how many anti-thaksin people would actually prefer him to Samak as PM!

Interestingly I haven't seen a comment from Gen. Surayud or Gen. Sonthi yet.

Maybe the horse trading will lead to a 7 party Dem led coalition but that will be a very unstable and short lived government. Better that PPP get to lead for a while. Whatever kind of bizarre stuff went on in the election it is still the voice of the people at this time and they have clearly chosen the PPP. It is also good to see the Dems do better than expected and I agree with Bangkok Pundit on this one that they have something to be proud of especially after the low point of the Banyat led mess only 2 years ago. Maybe in a few more years Thailand will see a two party system evolve especially with all the alternative parties under-performing badly and all of them seeing big hitters lose out. If the warlord/family/interest group parties actually start to disintegrate that can only be a good thing for the country. Certainly this time most voters (28 million of them) chose one of 2 parties identified with a position rather than an opportunistic party just wanting to be in government. While I read of all the doom and gloom I personally think a number of good things have come out of this election that could auger well for Thai democracy in the future even if the short term future looks a bit dodgy.

Peace and here's to hoping no strange incidents occur

I think a 2-party system sucks - just look at the UK and USA. The proportional representation part of the election means other parties will usually get enough support for at least a handful of seats.

Also, if the Dems try to annul the election because of vote buying (apparently one statement like this was made on TV yesterday, possibly just sour grapes) it will blow up in their faces. Here in the boonies it was the Dems who were offering cash. Many took the money and voted PPP anyway. Others feared the election was not so anonymous so just avoided taking the money and voted PPP.

The other voting problem was that many people expected to see candidate names and parties on the ballot sheet, instead were faced with a page of numbers. Many hadn't a clue who to vote for!

Talking to some locals, they all seemed happy. They hadn't figured out that all the other parties could form a gov and leave PPP in the cold. Hope they won't be disappointed.

rych

And in a muti-party system a minority party can hold the balance of power. For the PPP to govern in its own right it must win more than 50% of the seats in the NLA.

[Johpa]

Some good points Farangderthal - but I think you misunderstand Thaksin and those 'personal qualities' that got him (and the country) into the situation it is presently now in.

His avarice - ruthlessness - authoritarianism - was without exception -

In short - he was a greedy and ruthless dictator.

You, like many others posting here, must be relatively new on the Thai political scene. Thaksin's avarice, his ruthlessness, and his greediness were all par for the course and nothing out of the ordinary for Thai politicians. His downfall was that he failed to share his spoils sufficiently with his peers, all of whom are equally greedy, ruthless, and rapacious as the next as demonstrated by the coup.

[lukamar]

I don't pretend to know why they did this, but it seems clear that part of the reason was to punish the coup government, and that impulse is well understandable.

And they want their Thaksin back. If they win their Thaksin back of course they should get their Thaksin back, but you know, it isn't over, there are still red cards to issue, and coaltions to be made. The Chao Isaan may not have won after all. We shall see. If they do win, I will say, congratulations to them and good luck to Thailand.

They could have punished the Junta by a no vote campaign or by voting democrat. They chose PPP in the North and northeast.

Maybe the most interesting outcome would be for the Democrats to form a government and see if they can actually make good on all the stuff they promised.

Democrat platform...

--- It will raise the minimum wage and curb petrol prices but cut oil subsidies implemented by the Thaksin administration and will instead increase dividends PTT pays to shareholders, including the government. (FTW?)

---Instead of village funds, the party will establish a "sufficiency fund" to develop rural Thailand. The fund will finance produce storage and provide long-term loans.

---Free education to high-school level is promised, along with free books and uniforms in 99 days.

I'm not sure if the Demo's can offer that up and if they don't give free education to Issan as promised they could kiss away those poor that voted for them this time. With about 15 million school age kids @ 10,000Bt a year minimum. Do the math it's 150,000,000,000Bt

as a start then throw in Admin costs and indeterminate payouts and bribes and it's closer to double. Hope the Democrats have a way of funding that with a crapped out economy after all the good work done by the Junta...LOL

[meemiathai]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

[lukamar]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

Thaksin will always be involved in politics in some manner or the other even if it's from the sidelines. I come from a family of politicians I grew up among them. It's the way they are it's like it's in their blood, it's their chess game, their drug of choice.

[jumnien]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

Thaksin will always be involved in politics in some manner or the other even if it's from the sidelines. I come from a family of politicians I grew up among them. It's the way they are it's like it's in their blood, it's their chess game, their drug of choice.

That's a scary thought. You mean once the Generals have tasted the blood of political life, they will always return? Another coup inevitable?

[dog412]

Some good points Farangderthal - but I think you misunderstand Thaksin and those 'personal qualities' that got him (and the country) into the situation it is presently now in.

His avarice - ruthlessness - authoritarianism - was without exception -

In short - he was a greedy and ruthless dictator.

You, like many others posting here, must be relatively new on the Thai political scene. Thaksin's avarice, his ruthlessness, and his greediness were all par for the course and nothing out of the ordinary for Thai politicians. His downfall was that he failed to share his spoils sufficiently with his peers, all of whom are equally greedy, ruthless, and rapacious as the next as demonstrated by the coup.

i basically agree with your analogy. the reason for the coup, was, that no entity in Thailand has the ability to prosecute the upper level of power brokers. Thaksin, while in office, should have been notified that charges were being filed against him, and proper legal procedures to follow, including his right to defense against such and all charges. the political branches of government, the judicial branch, was the arm responsible. seems to me the military trumped the civilians, but at the same time i know that civilians control the military. a matter of reduction, i guess.

[lukamar]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

Thaksin will always be involved in politics in some manner or the other even if it's from the sidelines. I come from a family of politicians I grew up among them. It's the way they are it's like it's in their blood, it's their chess game, their drug of choice.

That's a scary thought. You mean once the Generals have tasted the blood of political life, they will always return? Another coup inevitable?

Politicians and Generals don't think that differently. A lot of them do get into politics in Thailand when they retire or their career hits a roadblock. You have to want to be in charge or at least the big fish in the pond to be either.

This is purely my view. If the PPP forms the government makes changes to the constitution or brings back the 97 constitution (that I'd like to see) and makes some needed changes to it and spells out what will happen in the future to the perpetrators if the government is overturned by force from within, with out actually reaping vengeance on the Junta leaders. Something very positive could come out of all this.

The problem has always been that the coup makes have suffered little, most of them have gained great wealth, in the past after coup and coup attempts. If the constitution spelled out that it was treasonable and what the repercussions would be for overthrowing the government and/or the monarchy the next group would think twice. This has been a huge eye opener for the military who should figure out any day now that their days of having coups is over.

The big problem remains. The divide between the South, Bangkok and the North-Northeast.

[ando]

for neither party will do anything to help the less fortunate unless its existence depends upon it. and that day is long in coming in thailand.

I think a lot of people forget that it is not just the rural peasant class who can make the difference in an election, but also the urban poor have considerable voting clout in the cities.

As long as democracy is allowed to proceed in Thailand the only parties to get elected to govern will be those who cater to the needs of the poor as the highest priority. TRT and PPP have figured that one out.

As farming practices become more efficient in the country and industrialization continues in the cities there is a movement of the rural poor to the cities to become the urban poor. The objective of the wealthy ruling class is that in order to maintain a pool of cheap labour (from which the elite enrich themselves),

they must obstruct the democratic process which gives the poor the greatest say in how the country is run. And of course the only way the minority elite ruling class can stifle democracy is through the use of the military.

Thailand is a developing country relative to ours in western society. They are still very much an agrarian society with half the population (the poorest half) still dependent on agriculture for a living. In contrast, most developed countries get by and become richer with only 1 or 2% of the population involved in agriculture. Sure, rice exports earn a lot of foreign revenue for Thailand, but at what cost to the people? Half the population scraping by on 2 to 4,000 baht a month income and living in poverty due to outdated labour intensive farming practices, small scale family farms and utilization of marginal land in some cases.

Australia can produce good quality rice for the same price as Thailand and our farmers are paid a heck of a lot more! About 30 times more in fact.

So the peasant class farmers out there in Issarn are really nothing more than a human resource on hold for the future. And in the meantime they provide a cheap labour pool for the wealthy class. The key to improving the lot of the peasant farmers is to make them more productive. That starts with education that gives them the knowledge to diversify and move into more productive endeavours. But many of the subsistence peasant farmers are barely getting by at a subsistence level now. So they need some kind of a hand up in the from government subsidies in the form of govt loans, free education, health care and even perhaps a rice subsidy for a while.

Having half the population doing very little for the domestic economy is not in Thailand's best interest. People in poverty buy very little domestic product. But as the peasants become wealthier and more productive those benefits flow on to all sectors of the domestic economy. Once the peasants can climb out of the subsistence level hole they are in they will start buying more domestically produced items like clothes, cars, and household items. That's good for everybody and it creates employment which in turn provides jobs for the kids of the peasant farmers. That's the way domestic economies work in all developed countries. You only have to turn the TV on to the US news to see them monitoring domestic consumer spending as a measure of the countries economic health.

But where do you start? Do you simply write half of Thailand's population off as stupid, uneducated fools, good only for cheap labour and unworthy of any assistance to improve their lot in life? Or do you see that half of the population as a valuable human resource which can be educated, assisted and utilized to improve the economic position of the whole country?

Thailand is going ahead, certainly industrially with all the new factories and development in the central region. And Thailand would still go ahead if the peasant farmers were left behind and forgotten by governments. But in the long run it is in the countries best interests to give some assistance and develop strategies to bring the other half of the population up to speed with the rest of the country. It ain't going to happen over night, but you have to start somewhere. Democracy is going to make that change happen. The peasants can now read newspapers, many have access to TV and radio news. They have the numbers electorally to choose a government. Yes the peasants are getting restless and the politicians better listen if they want to gain government.

Alternatively, those with power and control could always call in the military to seize control and maintain the old status Que of a by gone era.

[hammered]

There is a good article in the print Post today about the election by Thitinan. Although I dont agree with his analysis that the government will end up being Dem led, it does highlight potential areas of conflict and the dilemma facing PPP that although they won the most seats they got almost exactly the same number of votes as the Dems limiting their mandate somewhat. Hopefully, this reality will cause the PPP to be more reconcilliatory in their approach to government raher than triggering a revenge that could cause further conflict. However, we will no doubt se fairly soon. Anyway if you have a copy of the Post the article is worht a read.

And a very Merry Christmas to everyone too

Peace

Edited December 25, 2007 by hammered

[John K]

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don’t need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

[ando]

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don’t need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

Put the constitution to the vote under a democratically elected government. Whats so bad about that? Let the people decide.

But of course the military junta wont have the same level of control over the media next time, so bad things could happen if the people with guns and tanks get upset again.

[chownah]

While it is true that PPP and the Democrats got nearly the same amount of votes it should be remembered that this election was strongly tilted in favor of the Democrats because of restrictions put on the TRT and its members which served as a drag on PPP's development. If the PPP forms a gov't and it brings Toxin back it will probably only get more popular at least in the short term.....of course its long term popularity depends on how long it can keep the bulk of voters feeling like they are involved. If the coup had not happened perhaps TRT's glowing image would have worn off by now and people would be moving on to the next political thing....who knows?....it seems that perhaps the coup happened just at the time when Toxins's policies could not be maintained any longer which sort of bailed him out of what might have been imminent failure and effectively turned Toxin into an heroic figure tilting against the anti-democratic military junta. This might have added to Toxin's long term support rather than diminishing it which was the junta's intent.

[chownah]

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don’t need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

Clearly this means that there is a chance that the increased control that the military wrote into the existing constitution which strengthens their role in the gov't might be reduced or eliminated....we should probably all be supporting this effort.

[selftaopath]

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don't need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

Clearly this means that there is a chance that the increased control that the military wrote into the existing constitution which strengthens their role in the gov't might be reduced or eliminated....we should probably all be supporting this effort.

I wonder if the "new govt" in Thailand would be also interesed in this: Foreign buyers snap up 2nd homes in US

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071224/ap_on_...fXPDTWB9zis0NUE

As Thailand is a democracy right?

[ando]

That internal security law has definitely got to go if the country is ever to progress democracy free of military interference.

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

Thaksin is not going back into politics again.

What, you mean he ever left?

Well if you missed it somewhere between today and yesterday the PPP announce they wanted more than a simple majority, they want enough to root up the new constitution. I don't need to tell anyone who has been paying attention what that means.

I would totally support that of course!!!

The constitution that was torn up was referred to as the 'People's Constitution'. There's an excellent wikipedia article on it. This was replaced by something VERY doctored by the military, with the specific aim to cement military influence in Thai politics.

The current constitution is a piece of trash, and changing it is near impossible because that would require a 2/3 majority in the house and ALSO IN THE SENATE, and..... under this constition, half the senate is APPOINTED, not elected.. SO.. . . . That effectively means we might as well stop discussing amending the constitution because it's not going to happen. (Not without a serious fight anyway).

Of course it MUST happen sooner or later if Thailand is to make democratic progress... For now though, I think all parties have said that other things are more urgent than amending the constitution and I think they're right.

And besides, the constitution is a law. Laws in Thailand: Always a workaround.