Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[thai_narak]

i hope you are right but the exact opposite has been seen for both PPP/TRT leaders (Samak/Thaksin) on October 6, 1976 massacre (Samak) and the on October 25, 2004 takbai massacre (Thaksin) in the south.

You no what, forging history like that makes me mad.

Firs of all, ALL massacres were purpotrated by the military, the same military that so many hear were so delighted to see in government for the past year.

Secondly, Tak Bai is not a massacre in the same vein as the 1976 and 1992 massacres of unarmed people protesting for democracy.

The difference is, and it saddens me to have to point this out, that in 1976 and 1992 the military ACTIVELY SHOT TO KILL at unarmed protesters.

Tak Bai on the other hand was a <deleted>-up by the military, the same military alright, but at least it was a tragic accident in the way people died after being improperly transported in too few trucks. The resources weren't there to handle the detainees.

Furthermore, and this saddens me even more to have to point this out, in 1976 and 1992 the backdrop was peaceful protests to try to bring democracy to Thailand. In the South, the backdrop is monks, women and children being slaughtered by Muslim extremist thugs.

Thank you.

i agree with your insights but the point is, focusing on the 2 men in the lead, they should have done better ways to deal with the situation. yes, the military, they are the same everywhere in the world as they are the operating arms of the government in charge and they are in the front lines, some abusive, they make mistakes but they can be punished big time.

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

Tak Bai on the other hand was a <deleted>-up by the military, the same military alright, but at least it was a tragic accident in the way people died after being improperly transported in too few trucks. The resources weren't there to handle the detainees.

Tragic accident???? Did you see the footage?

Yes I did. There was a huge gang of armed protesters + extemists trying to overrun a police station. The policemen in there bravely defended themselves, and shot a couple extremists in the process. Really, just look up the newspaper articles on the event. In fact congratulations are due to the way they struck a blow to the insurgency.

That doesn't excuse the mistakes that were made in handling the detainees... Though you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of Thais who shed tears about it.. In fact I think it's amazing how restraint the military has been.. The people have been begging for more action in the light of school kids and monks being beheaded and massacred. It's a nasty situation down there.

That's like saying that thousands of jews who died being cramped into German railway carts met with a tragic accident.

Please.

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

i agree with your insights but the point is, focusing on the 2 men in the lead, they should have done better ways to deal with the situation. yes, the military, they are the same everywhere in the world as they are the operating arms of the government in charge and they are in the front lines, some abusive, they make mistakes but they can be punished big time.

Yes, that's fair enough. And to be honest, I think politicians (yes, Thaksin, or whoever was in charge of the Deep South at the time) should have taken responsibility. Of course in a Thai setting that's wishful thinking, but I do agree that the people who messed it up should have been held to account. Of course this is Thailand.. life is cheap.

[hammered]

i hope you are right but the exact opposite has been seen for both PPP/TRT leaders (Samak/Thaksin) on October 6, 1976 massacre (Samak) and the on October 25, 2004 takbai massacre (Thaksin) in the south.

You no what, forging history like that makes me mad.

Firs of all, ALL massacres were purpotrated by the military, the same military that so many hear were so delighted to see in government for the past year.

Secondly, Tak Bai is not a massacre in the same vein as the 1976 and 1992 massacres of unarmed people protesting for democracy.

The difference is, and it saddens me to have to point this out, that in 1976 and 1992 the military ACTIVELY SHOT TO KILL at unarmed protesters.

Tak Bai on the other hand was a <deleted>-up by the military, the same military alright, but at least it was a tragic accident in the way people died after being improperly transported in too few trucks. The resources weren't there to handle the detainees.

Furthermore, and this saddens me even more to have to point this out, in 1976 and 1992 the backdrop was peaceful protests to try to bring democracy to Thailand. In the South, the backdrop is monks, women and children being slaughtered by Muslim extremist thugs.

Thank you.

The likely next PM was a big supporter to say the least of the 76 and 92 "incidents'. Thailand has come a long way! In 1976 it wasnt only shooting but attaching people by ropes to the back of jeeps and driving around plus a fair few gang rapes not to mention hangings, and a lot of it was committed by village militia groups. All cheerled by.........

Tak Bai is viewed by a diverse array of international groups as a human rights abuse rather than accident.

Anyway we are getting well off subject unless anyone wants to discuss the role of likely cabinety members in the previous slaughters, which is something the Thai press are complelty unwilling to do and something that maybe shouldnt be done on this board.

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

I said:

>>I think there's some potential to woo urban and almost-urban folks in many districts where they're currently not achieving anything.

Plus said:

> The poster apparently has no clue about Democrat traditional support base.

You simply didn't read properly. OF COURSE a lot of support is in urban areas, like Bangkok. That's not the point. I was saying, they don't achieve much in MANY OTHER urban areas in the North and North East. Khorat, Udon, Chiang Mai, they're becoming huge urban centers, and I think they can make gains there. That's all. Just read the text and join the discussion, don't bicker and call other people clueless. I think it's quite clear from my posts that I DO have a clue, you simply don't agree with me. Now when you read something that you think is wrong, the respectful thing is ask for clarification, not call people clueless. Please, I think we can all get along fine without the need personal attacks.

Edited December 27, 2007 by HobbsTheFerociousTiger

[hammered]

I said:

>>I think there's some potential to woo urban and almost-urban folks in many districts where they're currently not achieving anything.

Plus said:

> The poster apparently has no clue about Democrat traditional support base.

You simply didn't read properly. OF COURSE a lot of support is in urban areas, like Bangkok. That's not the point. I was saying, they don't achieve much in MANY OTHER urban areas in the North and North East. Khorat, Udon, Chiang Mai, they're becoming huge urban centers, and I think they can make gains there. That's all. Just read the text and join the discussion, don't bicker and call other people clueless. I think it's quite clear from my posts that I DO have a clue, you simply don't agree with me. Now when you read something that you think is wrong, the respectful thing is ask for clarification, not call people clueless. Please, I think we can all get along fine without the need personal attacks.

Your arguement of Dem gains in urban areas and developed provinces seems to be held out in the current election where they have moved solidly into some central provinces they used to have no MPs in. A good example is Chonburi where the 2 years ago TRT had all the MPs. This time the Chonburi influential group ran as Chart Thai sensing a certain anti-Thaksin feeling particulalry in the newer Chonburi residents. The Democrats swept the province taking all the seats. Over time and as other provices become more developed and urbanised the Dems do seem to as you say stand to gain. Right now the South, Bangkok and the central and eastern regions close to Bangkok are good areas for the Dems while the Isaan, North and upper central areas are good for PPP. This does seem to indicate that developed areas favour Dems and underdeveloped favour PPP/TRT as ageneralization of course.

The example of Chonburi is interesting because the new residents that Dems have targetted hailed roiginally from the North and North East and moved to Chonburi with their technical qualiifcations or even degrees in the past decade or two to find quite well paying jobs providing them with the ability to relocate into the many cheaper housing copmplexes that have been going up.

One thing is for sure. Thailand is going through a lot of change right now and it will continue into the near future. These changes will for sure result in clashes betwen different visions on where the country is headed. Lets just hope they remain relatively peaceful.

[Abrak]

I really think it is naive of the Democrats to pat themselves on the back and claim that the popular vote showed a swing in their favour. The fact remains that the Government not only banned the TRT's best politicians but it also ran the political machinery in a blatantly biased pro-democrats way. In addition the PPP had a leader that was - under all rational thinking - unelectable. It is hardly surprising they made headway.

The fact they made so little headway is very disappointing. And they really need to take a long hard look at themselves, how they recruit MPs, what they need to do to get elected in the north and north east, if they ever want to form a government in this country. If they cant win an election, with the whole thing blatantly rigged in their favour, there is not much hope for them.

They really need to get their act together.

[John K]

Just in case anyone did not notice, the level of anxiety is quickly returning to pre coup levels. The speculations that are already surrounding the PPP activities and their involvement with Thaksin, looks very familiar to news clippings of early and mid 2006.

One of the worst thing is the self serving campaign promises Samak make early on look to have been the honest truth. I don’t think they will get around to taking care of the people until they have reset the clock to before the coup.

[hammered]

I really think it is naive of the Democrats to pat themselves on the back and claim that the popular vote showed a swing in their favour. The fact remains that the Government not only banned the TRT's best politicians but it also ran the political machinery in a blatantly biased pro-democrats way. In addition the PPP had a leader that was - under all rational thinking - unelectable. It is hardly surprising they made headway.

The fact they made so little headway is very disappointing. And they really need to take a long hard look at themselves, how they recruit MPs, what they need to do to get elected in the north and north east, if they ever want to form a government in this country. If they cant win an election, with the whole thing blatantly rigged in their favour, there is not much hope for them.

They really need to get their act together.

Im not saying they should pat themselves on their back. The reality is they received a vote as big as that of PPP, and that shows a huge divide in the country. PPP need to realise this when they assume power if conflict is to be avoided. The country is divided regionally now and more divided than it was say 1-2 years ago. What can be done to heal this rift?

[Old Man River]

AFAIK PPP made no campaign comments about FBA. they were and are Thai centric. However, looking at likely members of the team, I'd not expect a more liberal FBA view to be pre-eminent.

It should be noted that the FBA was not amended because the junta pulled it after the NLA wanted to add even more stringent conditions. Since the NLA will become the senate it would be open to a tougher version, if PPP were so minded.

Regards

/edit add NLA point//

While I agree on the senate issues as they exist now, it could be changed (again).

I don't think the PPP will remain as they currently appear. The TRT government under Thaksin wasn't Thai centric anymore than usual. Money and power was what mattered. All the issues of privatizations, Singapore, FBA, Retail Act, and capital controls were championed at different times first by the PAD and then the junta. The TRT was open for business and economic and military alliances were being sought.

Now that the people in the country have made their choice, once amnesty is given and Thaksin's issues are squared away, many of the Thai centric economic stumbling blocks put in place over the past year should be reversed.

Note, the Democrats would have removed these stumbling blocks as well and managed the economy with much more fiscal discipline, but thanks to the people in the northeast, that won't happen.

[blaze]

I really think it is naive of the Democrats to pat themselves on the back and claim that the popular vote showed a swing in their favour. The fact remains that the Government not only banned the TRT's best politicians but it also ran the political machinery in a blatantly biased pro-democrats way. In addition the PPP had a leader that was - under all rational thinking - unelectable. It is hardly surprising they made headway.

The fact they made so little headway is very disappointing. And they really need to take a long hard look at themselves, how they recruit MPs, what they need to do to get elected in the north and north east, if they ever want to form a government in this country. If they cant win an election, with the whole thing blatantly rigged in their favour, there is not much hope for them.

They really need to get their act together.

Im not saying they should pat themselves on their back. The reality is they received a vote as big as that of PPP, and that shows a huge divide in the country. PPP need to realise this when they assume power if conflict is to be avoided. The country is divided regionally now and more divided than it was say 1-2 years ago. What can be done to heal this rift?

Which is more dangerous to national unity- economic divide or regional- I think regional (though of course there are often economic dimensions)- Canada- Belgium- Czechoslovakia- Yugoslavia- etc etc.

And because, unlike economic divides, regional divides tend to be irrational- sentimental in a way- they are much more difficult to heal- they have a way of taking on a life of their own.

Is that really a possiblity in Thailand- a disintigration of the country? I don't know- a horrifying thought. I wish I knew more about the attitudes in the South right now- it's funny- years ago- there was much more animosity to Bangkok in the South than there was in the N and NE- or at least I thought so anyway- meaning that while it might be easy to say the divide is based on political parties - but in fact political affiliations may only reflect a very small part of a more complex bunch of cracks.

[Siripon]

The rural attachment to Thaksin is based on 2 things in my view. Firstly, TRT were the first party to offer a comprehensive list of policies to help the poor as a platform\manifesto.

Secondly, they actually implemented it.

That produced a lot of loyalty.

I don't believe Thaksin gave a hoot about the poor, he simply wanted their numbers to try to turn Thailand into an authoritarian state and unlike Ando I haven't seen much benefit from his policies. For example in my hometown, Ban Pai, Khon Kaen province, the maximum people could borrow from the village fund was 10,000 baht repayable within 6 months- unless you had good connections. The 30 baht hospital fee for all diseases mainly meant only paracetomal for treatment, Ando mentions a relative borrowing to buy a small rice mill, well the Agricultural bank has been lending for years, one of my neighbours bought a rice thresher 6 wheel vehicle via a bank loan years ago.

But perception is all and post coup Issanites were told that General Prem was behind the coup and the Democrats were involved too, so they could hardly expect the rural Issan vote this time.

Suthep gave up canvassing in Issan, some say senior southern Democrats don't want to share any power within the party with possible outsiders, ie Issanites, but Aphisit is from Bangkok not the South and the Dem's share of the proportional vote was truly impressive. My point being, under Aphisit the Democrats have a great chance to make inroads into Issan if they find local politicians of calibre. Remember both Thaksin and Samak refused to debate with him.

It's not going to be an easy road for the PPP over the next few months, apart from the economy, attempts to dissolve the AEc and quash the ban on the 111 TRT executives could well spark unrest and the PPP will be blamed for interfering in the judicial process.

Thaksin has to think carefully, if he comes back there's the court cases, does he really believe he's innocent? If so he'll have to go through the lengthy legal process, all the time mindful of his personal security. If he doesn't come back the Issanites will lose faith in him and I don't think the unattractive faces of Samak and Chalerm as Interior Minister will be enough to comfort them. Everyone knows what his son did.

I reckon Thaksin's main worry is holding onto his assets, for this he will use his usual 2 pronged approach, the carrot and the stick. The carrot will be to arrange a private deal with various parties, authorities, whereby swearing off any political role and probably remaining in exile for a considerable time in exchange for a return of his assets. The stick will be to go all out for revenge, cancel the AEC, and attempt to drop the cases awaiting him by fair means or foul.

But this will entail considerable risk including personal safety, and I believe that, although he's a risk taker, Thaksin is at heart a coward.

[Plus]

I don't know the urban results in these elections, but last April all the "muang" districts voted "no", even in Isan. Urbanites is not Democrat's weakness, it's their main support base.

TRT/PPP on the other hand were puushed not only out of the cities, but also out of much of the country. Effectively now they are confined to the North and North East, and it's certainly not Democrat's fault that PPP has become so geographically isolated.

Democrats doubled their votes since 2005, that's a great achievement, they've also got eighty seats outside the South and lost many more by a slim margin, it appears.

They are on the right course, not a time to pat themselves, but congratulations are in order.

The only party campaigning for national division is PPP. It's the only party that focused on one particular segment of society and blamed everybody else for that segments problems. According to PPP everybody - Democrats, Bangkokians, elite, generals - they are all out to swindle poor Isanesewho need to be protected by Thaksin and no one else. They'll eventually pay for that strategy, their future is doomed if they don't come out of Isan heartland.

[John K]

PPP: CNS revenge not on the agenda

(BangkokPost.com) – Deputy leader of the People Power party (PPP) has quashed rumours that it plans to seek revenge on the Council for National Security (CNS) if it is able to form a new coalition government.

General Ruengrote Mahaslanol said the party’s three main objectives right now are to solve the country’s economic problems, to maintain national security and to form a strong government.

“We have yet to decide who will be appointed to which ministry,” he said. “Let me also stress that in the event that the PPP gets to lead the new coalition government, getting even with the CNS will not be on the government’s agenda. We have already discussed this with Mr Thaksin Shinawatra and we all agree that the PPP’s main policy has always been to encourage national reconciliation.”

more: http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=124722

I guess they want everyone to be absolutely sure Thaksin is running the PPP and in violation of the EC and tribunal ruling. I don’t know if this is arrogance or just total stupidity to say this implying Thaksin is running things. Also not to forget if Thaksin says no revenge it means revenge.

Edited December 27, 2007 by John K

[thai_narak]

I don't know the urban results in these elections, but last April all the "muang" districts voted "no", even in Isan. Urbanites is not Democrat's weakness, it's their main support base.

TRT/PPP on the other hand were puushed not only out of the cities, but also out of much of the country. Effectively now they are confined to the North and North East, and it's certainly not Democrat's fault that PPP has become so geographically isolated.

Democrats doubled their votes since 2005, that's a great achievement, they've also got eighty seats outside the South and lost many more by a slim margin, it appears.

They are on the right course, not a time to pat themselves, but congratulations are in order.

The only party campaigning for national division is PPP. It's the only party that focused on one particular segment of society and blamed everybody else for that segments problems. According to PPP everybody - Democrats, Bangkokians, elite, generals - they are all out to swindle poor Isanesewho need to be protected by Thaksin and no one else. They'll eventually pay for that strategy, their future is doomed if they don't come out of Isan heartland.

i would certainly agree on this.

[sriracha john]

Thaksin will face arrest

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be arrested if he returns home from self-imposed exile as planned, even if his victorious allies form a government following last weekend's general election, officials said Thursday.

Thaksin and members of his family face an array of corruption-related charges from the former leader's six years in office. He was overthrown in a bloodless coup last year.

"The court and police had already issued arrest warrants on him so once he arrives back to Thailand the authorities concerned are duty-bound by law to arrest him," Samphan Sarathana, a senior official in the Office of the Attorney General told The Associated Press.

"The case is gone too far for a reversal," he said.

Samphan, a Director-General in the office, said the results of the election, won by the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party or PPP, had no bearing on the legal cases against the former prime minister.

Thaksin said in Hong Kong Tuesday that he is exploring options about a comeback to Thailand between mid-February and April.

He vowed to stay out of direct politics but said he was prepared to serve as adviser to the PPP.

The PPP won 233 of 480 seats in the lower house of Parliament in the Dec. 23 vote, while its top rival, the Democrat Party, won 165.

The PPP says it has already gathered enough support from smaller parties to form a coalition, but analysts say that horse-trading continues and that it is too early to declare the pro-Thaksin grouping as Thailand's next government.

An arrest warrant was issued for Thaksin in August after he failed to appear in court in a case involving conflict of interest in a land deal while he was in power. His wife Pojamarn is accused of illegally buying real estate from a government agency effectively controlled by her husband.

The government that succeeded Thaksin launched several investigations into his alleged corruption and have frozen millions of dollars of his family's assets. Other cases against him and family members are pending.

- Associated Press

[sriracha john]

Tak Bai on the other hand was a <deleted>-up by the military, the same military alright, but at least it was a tragic accident in the way people died after being improperly transported in too few trucks. The resources weren't there to handle the detainees.

Tragic accident???? Did you see the footage?

Yes I did. There was a huge gang of armed protesters + extemists trying to overrun a police station. The policemen in there bravely defended themselves, and shot a couple extremists in the process. Really, just look up the newspaper articles on the event. In fact congratulations are due to the way they struck a blow to the insurgency.

That doesn't excuse the mistakes that were made in handling the detainees... Though you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of Thais who shed tears about it.. In fact I think it's amazing how restraint the military has been.. The people have been begging for more action in the light of school kids and monks being beheaded and massacred. It's a nasty situation down there.

That's like saying that thousands of jews who died being cramped into German railway carts met with a tragic accident.

Please.

Revising history?....

Thankfully, there's lots and lots of factual recordings of the event.

Tak Bai Incident

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Tak Bai incident is an event that occurred on October 25, 2004 in Tak Bai, Thailand, which resulted in at least 85 deaths.

Six local men were arrested. A demonstration was organized to demand their release and the police called in army reinforcements. After some demonstrators threw rocks and attempted to storm the police station, security forces used tear gas and gunfire in response.

Hundreds of local people, mostly young men, were arrested. They had their shirts taken off, bound with their hands tied behind their backs, and made to lie face down on the ground. Video footage shows soldiers kicking and beating those already bound and helplessly lying on the ground.

Later that afternoon, those arrested were thrown by soldiers into trucks to be taken to an army camp in the next province of Pattani. The prisoners were stacked five or six deep in the trucks, and by the time the trucks reached their destination three hours later, many had suffocated to death.

Reports claim that 7 died as a result of gunshot wounds. The rest are believed to have died either from suffocation or beatings.

This incident sparked widespread protests across Thailand. VCDs were made by Muslim groups showing footage of the events as well as some speeches. These VCDs were circulated among Muslims in Thailand. The government said that it was illegal to own copies of the VCDs and said it could prosecute anybody who has a copy.

Shortly after the incident, PM Thaksin Shinawatra's first response defended the army's actions and said the men died

"because they were already weak from fasting during the month of Ramadan."

[blaze]

Tak Bai on the other hand was a <deleted>-up by the military, the same military alright, but at least it was a tragic accident in the way people died after being improperly transported in too few trucks. The resources weren't there to handle the detainees.

Tragic accident???? Did you see the footage?

Yes I did. There was a huge gang of armed protesters + extemists trying to overrun a police station. The policemen in there bravely defended themselves, and shot a couple extremists in the process. Really, just look up the newspaper articles on the event. In fact congratulations are due to the way they struck a blow to the insurgency.

That doesn't excuse the mistakes that were made in handling the detainees... Though you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of Thais who shed tears about it.. In fact I think it's amazing how restraint the military has been.. The people have been begging for more action in the light of school kids and monks being beheaded and massacred. It's a nasty situation down there.

That's like saying that thousands of jews who died being cramped into German railway carts met with a tragic accident.

Please.

Revising history?....

Thankfully, there's lots and lots of factual recordings of the event.

Tak Bai Incident

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Tak Bai incident is an event that occurred on October 25, 2004 in Tak Bai, Thailand, which resulted in at least 85 deaths.

Six local men were arrested. A demonstration was organized to demand their release and the police called in army reinforcements. After some demonstrators threw rocks and attempted to storm the police station, security forces used tear gas and gunfire in response.

Hundreds of local people, mostly young men, were arrested. They had their shirts taken off, bound with their hands tied behind their backs, and made to lie face down on the ground. Video footage shows soldiers kicking and beating those already bound and helplessly lying on the ground.

Later that afternoon, those arrested were thrown by soldiers into trucks to be taken to an army camp in the next province of Pattani. The prisoners were stacked five or six deep in the trucks, and by the time the trucks reached their destination three hours later, many had suffocated to death.

Reports claim that 7 died as a result of gunshot wounds. The rest are believed to have died either from suffocation or beatings.

This incident sparked widespread protests across Thailand. VCDs were made by Muslim groups showing footage of the events as well as some speeches. These VCDs were circulated among Muslims in Thailand. The government said that it was illegal to own copies of the VCDs and said it could prosecute anybody who has a copy.

Shortly after the incident, PM Thaksin Shinawatra's first response defended the army's actions and said the men died

"because they were already weak from fasting during the month of Ramadan."

and now that the army has had, for one year, the opportunity to go after those responsible, without political interference- still no justice.

[jumnien]

Supporting the military coup on account of the military killings at Tak Bai is a bit odd at best.

[sriracha john]

I hold Bush responsible for the Iraqi Debacle... it is no different.

I've held Thaksin responsible ever since it occured and years before any coup.

Prosecute all that were connected with Tak Bai, starting at top and working down.

I agree with you, Blaze, in that has been a shortcoming of the current government's time in office.

Edited December 27, 2007 by sriracha john

[Abrak]

The whole situation is one big mess and I reckon it will take at least 10 years to sort it all out.

I dont think anyone likes the current situation. Not the military. Certainly not the Democrats. I even think Thaksin wished to rid himself of the dinosaurs of Thai politics and now here he is at there beck and call.

Even Samak - happy that he has won - must be wondering how long he can hold it together before Bangkok takes to the streets....

I fear that Thailand will slip further into the economic backwaters....

[Jingthing]

This cult of Toxin, this nostalgia for Toxin, this mythology of the wonders of Toxinomics is not good for Thailand.

I just had a radical thought about how this all might be put to bed, because this country really needs to wake up and smell the coffee and realize they are slipping fast behind their regional competitors. How about if PM Samak, the perceived Toxin puppet, invites Toxin home, throws a party cooking him one of his famous feasts, and then under his government puts him into jail on a long sentence. You see the beauty of it, only a Toxin puppet could do that without it enraging the Isaan masses.

Edited December 27, 2007 by Jingthing

[HobbsTheFerociousTiger]

I don't know the urban results in these elections, but last April all the 'muang' districts voted 'no', even in Isan. Urbanites is not Democrat's weakness, it's their main support base.

Agreed. So I wondered if they can extend that into the larger area around those cities. As all those cities are growing real fast, the standard of living and education level increases a lot also in the surrounding districts where I think the democrats can make more gains.

Of course I don't really fancy a Samak government. I do respect election results above all else.

[John K]

Exiled Thai premier faces hurdles if he attempts to return

Bangkok - Ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra faces arrest and a prickly military if he returns, officials said Thursday.

The caretaker defence minister, Gen Boonrawd Somtas, said that although the military - which overthrew Thaksin in September 2006 - was currently keeping a back seat role, another coup could not be ruled out.

"(A coup) is like a natural disaster, we cannot assure that it will not happen again," he told the Thai News Agency. Thailand is on "the path to democracy" so that the military would "abide by the rules."

But the general warned, "If anything happens to the nation, people will have to accept the consequences of their decisions."

Several other corruption cases stemming from investigations started by the military are pending.

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

When the founder of the country's biggest telecommunications empire stormed to power with a landslide victory in 2001 even his critics were impressed by his dynamism and grandiose promises.

Yet he acquired in power a reputation as a vindictive and arrogant leader who has made many enemies in the capital, for all his popularity with the rural poor who were grateful for his populist handouts.

Thai commentators have been quick to point out that Sunday's victory in the polls by a party closely aligned with Thaksin was not the walkover his opponents had feared.

The People Power Party (PPP) failed to win an outright majority but won 233 seats out of 480. This means the party will have to form a coalition with traditionally fickle smaller parties. The rival Democrat Party polled 165 seats.

Thaksin, speaking on Christmas Day in Hong Kong, said that he was aiming to return from exile within three or four months - presumably calculating that his victorious proxy party will have acquired enough power to neutralize the legal and political hurdles erected by the junta.

This may not be easy, such are the powers arrayed against him. His proxy prime minister is a hot-headed right-wing demagogue, Samak Sundaravej, who is widely despised in Bangkok for a failed turn as governor of the capital.

Many likely members of the cabinet have tainted political careers. With Thaksin at a distance, they will be even more of a liability than usual at a time when economic and security problems have been mounting.

Although the defence minister was unapologetic about the junta's overthrow of Thaksin's elected government, he said the PPP was quite eligible to form the next government.

However, he added that "it has yet to be seen if the PPP follows its policy as promised to the people."//dpa

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/12/27...es_30060466.php

Hints of the storm ahead, and this one is not from global warming.

[John K]

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

I don’t wish to comment on this paragraph however simply call attention to it. This is the second time in just a few days a similar comment was made and it is also the very first time I have seen anything like it.

[Journalist]

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

I don't wish to comment on this paragraph however simply call attention to it. This is the second time in just a few days a similar comment was made and it is also the very first time I have seen anything like it.

This comment was made by whom, a general in charge of a division, or some member of Thaivisa blowing off?

[John K]

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

I don't wish to comment on this paragraph however simply call attention to it. This is the second time in just a few days a similar comment was made and it is also the very first time I have seen anything like it.

This comment was made by whom, a general in charge of a division, or some member of Thaivisa blowing off?

It is quoted from the post above it about the 4th or 5th paragraph.

[blaze]

Exiled Thai premier faces hurdles if he attempts to return

Bangkok - Ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra faces arrest and a prickly military if he returns, officials said Thursday.

The caretaker defence minister, Gen Boonrawd Somtas, said that although the military - which overthrew Thaksin in September 2006 - was currently keeping a back seat role, another coup could not be ruled out.

"(A coup) is like a natural disaster, we cannot assure that it will not happen again," he told the Thai News Agency. Thailand is on "the path to democracy" so that the military would "abide by the rules."

But the general warned, "If anything happens to the nation, people will have to accept the consequences of their decisions."

Several other corruption cases stemming from investigations started by the military are pending.

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

When the founder of the country's biggest telecommunications empire stormed to power with a landslide victory in 2001 even his critics were impressed by his dynamism and grandiose promises.

Yet he acquired in power a reputation as a vindictive and arrogant leader who has made many enemies in the capital, for all his popularity with the rural poor who were grateful for his populist handouts.

Thai commentators have been quick to point out that Sunday's victory in the polls by a party closely aligned with Thaksin was not the walkover his opponents had feared.

The People Power Party (PPP) failed to win an outright majority but won 233 seats out of 480. This means the party will have to form a coalition with traditionally fickle smaller parties. The rival Democrat Party polled 165 seats.

Thaksin, speaking on Christmas Day in Hong Kong, said that he was aiming to return from exile within three or four months - presumably calculating that his victorious proxy party will have acquired enough power to neutralize the legal and political hurdles erected by the junta.

This may not be easy, such are the powers arrayed against him. His proxy prime minister is a hot-headed right-wing demagogue, Samak Sundaravej, who is widely despised in Bangkok for a failed turn as governor of the capital.

Many likely members of the cabinet have tainted political careers. With Thaksin at a distance, they will be even more of a liability than usual at a time when economic and security problems have been mounting.

Although the defence minister was unapologetic about the junta's overthrow of Thaksin's elected government, he said the PPP was quite eligible to form the next government.

However, he added that "it has yet to be seen if the PPP follows its policy as promised to the people."//dpa

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/12/27...es_30060466.php

Hints of the storm ahead, and this one is not from global warming.

So a coup is like a national disaster? And so I suppose is child molestation- serial murdering and drug dealing to kids. What a disgustingly cowardly attitude. Until someone in this country takes a stand against military involvement in politics (not to mention the civil service and the economy) it's just more of the same- and that's not going to happen as long as Thais regard the military as a kind of divine presence subject only to its own whims.

[sriracha john]

These signals are reminders that large sections of the military, Bangkok, the palace and the media loath Thaksin for his alleged hubris, greed and impulse to control every facet of government.

I don't wish to comment on this paragraph however simply call attention to it. This is the second time in just a few days a similar comment was made and it is also the very first time I have seen anything like it.

This comment was made by whom, a general in charge of a division, or some member of Thaivisa blowing off?

Ironically, the comment was made by a

that works for

Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Headquarters

Mittelweg 38

20148 Hamburg

Germany

DPA is one of the world’s leading international news agencies supplying news on a global basis and entirely from its own sources.

[Richard W]

5. Democracy is highly overrated.

It's a good way of removing leaders. It beats relying on insurrection.