Thaksin : I'll Be Back!

[Tony Clifton]

Will he be all teary eyed returning. See photo of Bangkok Post apr. 5,2006 after his "I'm calling it quits" speech.

If he makes it off the plane when it lands. Remember Beigno Aquino returning to manila rom exile in aug 1983. Maybe history will repeat itself.

Please oh please don't shoot the prick and make a martyr of a criminal.

Let him fumble through his web of lies in front of judges, there's just too much to remember. Even foreign journalists get him to stutter and blink quite easily.

[Plus]

More people voted for Abhisit led government than for Samak - check the proportional list vote, the one for the national government.

http://203.150.244.10/reports/eng/

[hammered]

More people voted for Abhisit led government than for Samak - check the proportional list vote, the one for the national government.

http://203.150.244.10/reports/eng/

That is a good thing in that inspte of having all the seats the PPP do not have a clear mandate to carry through all their controversial things. This could be good for the country if they actually recognioze this.

[Insight]

There is hope for Thailand in the future. I can see the younger generations being different from their parents. With different ideas et all. But the change will not be for another 10-20 years or so. Abhisit and Apirak's generation are to small to make a change. The ones coming after then though are larger and will slowly get rid of the dinosaurs.

Waerth

I fully agree with you here. The results are a setback, but the clock is definitely still ticking.

I had Christmas dinner with a Thai friend who has owned a few companies in Bangkok over the years, and has therefore seen a large number of young employees - a lot of them being from the pro-Thaksin countryside areas. When they start working in Bangkok they begin to understand just how corrupt these slimy bast... politians are. My friend said the problem is when they go back to their home towns to try and explain this to their parents they ended up getting scolded by them for thinking they have a "superior" attitude - "Think you can tell me who to vote now you've been living in Bangkok?"

It's an interesting angle on things, and pretty much sums up what you said.

[sriracha john]

I recall Thaksin sent Bush a weepy letter after he went walkies, and Bush ignored it. Occasionally, Bush surprises and does intelligent things.

Bush can read ? ! Shock horror !

[Sparkles]

There is hope for Thailand in the future. I can see the younger generations being different from their parents. With different ideas et all. But the change will not be for another 10-20 years or so. Abhisit and Apirak's generation are to small to make a change. The ones coming after then though are larger and will slowly get rid of the dinosaurs.

Waerth

I fully agree with you here. The results are a setback, but the clock is definitely still ticking.

I had Christmas dinner with a Thai friend who has owned a few companies in Bangkok over the years, and has therefore seen a large number of young employees - a lot of them being from the pro-Thaksin countryside areas. When they start working in Bangkok they begin to understand just how corrupt these slimy bast... politians are. My friend said the problem is when they go back to their home towns to try and explain this to their parents they ended up getting scolded by them for thinking they have a "superior" attitude - "Think you can tell me who to vote now you've been living in Bangkok?"

It's an interesting angle on things, and pretty much sums up what you said.

I have had the same experience with many mature ,educated, students im my classrooms. When there is a choice between an articulate, Democrat leader who we hope is squeaky clean and a Samak/Thaksin team it is quite frightening with the possible consequences.

Education is the key to life and unfortuantly Thailand has yet to recognise that or as I fear keep the masses uneducated and uniformed and slip them a few baht and you can mould them into what ever shape you like..

[steveromagnino]

Just the fact the many people are able to live by being part of OTOP is a major things for poor people around Thailand.

Also, many are saying that PPP bought votes!

I can tell You that not only them!

Saw the way it goes in Sisaket and sure at 100% that it was the same everywhere in North and North East!

I'm curious to see the percentage of Thais that vote for and the percentage of Indians, Chinese and other Nationalities that got the right to vote.

Really curious about that!

Anyways, it's just my opinion!

Opinion in politics never end!

I know a lot of Thais in Bkk and they all voted for the PPP!

And they're all well educated and University graduated.

All this is alledgedly of course....

OTOP was already in place prior to TRT, and is a function of the DEP; OTOP was a way to favour specific villages, to misappropriate parts of the advertising and promotions budget of the DEP (department of export promotion) - let's assume on average around 20% which was the standard level of skim for the early years of TRT (rising to around 40% and higher in later years. OTOP sales levels increased the amount of Thai crafts sold somewhere in the realm of about 5-6% per year after an initial jump of about 10%.....i.e. for all the amount of money spent on politician holidays to New York to investigate potential locations (which would have in itself be a skim), for all the amount of money spent on trade fairs, trips and for all the free produce pocketed by politicians....it has done no better than the royal projects or the various Thai entreprenuers like Naraya who have actually waaaaaaaaaaaaay exceeded the money raised by OTOP.

Since you are knowing Sisaket, which is TRT country, of course you would see the so called benefits; ask someone in the deep south what TRT did for them regarding OTOP - the area got nothing simply because TRT early on wrote off that area as being somewhere they would not be able to 'buy votes' using government money (village fund, 30b healthcare, OTOP are all essentially a subsidy for poor people, and each one replaced a scheme that was actually financially viable but poorly communicated prior to TRT) and tend to favour Isaan and the North where the voters are easily swayed. ANd of course the southerners watched TRT families come in, buy all the land in Phuket, then create a property boom to sell most of the seaside property to foreigners technically illegally - bet your Isaan friends don't know a thing about that - they think Thaksin and TRT is about Thai ruk Thai, not Thai sell out country assets to Farang.

TRT were leaders in market research, and I bet they have researched that the uneducated masses in the north and northeast like the firebrand morons like Chalerm and Samak. The fact is vote buying is part of it, but mostly those people are voting due to the long term vote buying policies of 30b healthcare, price controls, deisel subsidies blah blah blah that TRT did to keep them quiet - they aren't smart enough to vote for longterm education, economic reform etc and sadly none of the parties are smart enough to even offer anything these days other than freebies and shortterm get rich quick schemes.

Typically Indians and Chinese voted for TRT in 2001 and that was for the technocrats like Purachai - the initiatives like TMAC (asset debt restructuring) and hope of a new way. They have swung massively away from TRT since they saw TMAC was simply a way for the TRT guys to buy distressed assets at cheap prices (e.g. PhayaThai hospital now controlled by Thaksin lawyer Noppadol, TPI ripped from the hands of Prachai) and seeing TRT gobble up shares in PTT and then give themselves all the deals possible with mega projects like the airport plus of course the crazy situation of restricting True/DTAC then selling off Shin 96% to the Singaporeans when it suited him. Now most Indians and Chinese, being that they are on average more highly educated and wealthier, are mostly anti PPP. Whether they are pro Democrat is another matter. And of course, most Chinese despise Samak as he has previously been venehemently anti Chinese; almost all Bangkokians also despise Chalerm and his family.

THe major families virtually had to suck up to TRT in the early years, because it was that or get frozen out of every deal. It might not be that way anymore.

If all your friends in Bangkok voted PPP I suspect the type of people you associate with may be very different to the ones I know. I know some, but far from many.

The real problem is there has not been a single party that actually is offering genuine economic and country reform. Because the idiots in Isaan and the north are never going to vote for that. They are too uneducated to know what the country needs.... What a great situation is the position of democracy.

But to say PPP has any sort of a mandate, with less than 50% of the vote is pushing it.

[FroggyQc]

OTOP was already in place prior to TRT

Because the idiots in Isaan and the north are never going to vote for that. They are too uneducated to know what the country needs.... What a great situation is the position of democracy.

I don't know all about the history of Thailand but let you know from Isaan people what they beleive.

Like OTOP, for all that I know, they associate OTOP to Thaksin at 100%.

Never heard about prior parties that contributed for!

I'm not saying your wrong but if the Isaan people beleive in that way, maybe the other parties don't work in the good direction to get the Isaan votes. They should let them see who did what!

To consider Isaan people idiots can be simply reduce to uneducated.

At least, we're in a new chapter again here and will see the result.

And other parties who wish that Isan people vote for them, they just have to work to educate them.

They're never there outside election time.

They should! To teach them the way a country has to go!

[Pepe']

Toxin had one on one face time on at the Crawford ranch on 6.9.03 and 9.19.05 with the burning Bush.

Just Google it...

[plachon]

OTOP was already in place prior to TRT

Because the idiots in Isaan and the north are never going to vote for that. They are too uneducated to know what the country needs.... What a great situation is the position of democracy.

I don't know all about the history of Thailand but let you know from Isaan people what they beleive.

Like OTOP, for all that I know, they associate OTOP to Thaksin at 100%.

Never heard about prior parties that contributed for!

I'm not saying your wrong but if the Isaan people beleive in that way, maybe the other parties don't work in the good direction to get the Isaan votes. They should let them see who did what!

To consider Isaan people idiots can be simply reduce to uneducated.

At least, we're in a new chapter again here and will see the result.

And other parties who wish that Isan people vote for them, they just have to work to educate them.

They're never there outside election time.

They should! To teach them the way a country has to go!

OTOP benefited some people, but only a minority and towards the end of toxin's reign in power, like most of his projects it was starting to creak, groan and in many places collapse. Poorly regulated, set up to benefit too few, subject to cronyism and corruption, forcing people to produce too narrow a range of products, subject to elite capture locally, even importing stuff from China and passing it off as "OTOP" were some of the charges I heard levellled at it.

In the end, it was like so many Toxic ideas, based on crony capitalism and in the end subject to the laws of warped markets - an early demise, although it lasted a bit longer than his "Elite Card" brainwave.

By the way, my wife is from Isaan and on hearing that her regional compatriots had overwhelmingly voted for PPP, she glumly said "kwai". Rather uncharitably I thought.

[Ozziepaul]

I hope he comes back and someone shoots the bastard.

I second that.

Maybe someone could arrange for him to meet Lugovoi for some 'personal protection' and slip him some P210 'sweetener' in his coffee.

Would still be within the parameters of being bloodless...."he just got real sick your honor, must have been the excitement of coming home".

[steveromagnino]

I don't know all about the history of Thailand but let you know from Isaan people what they beleive.

Like OTOP, for all that I know, they associate OTOP to Thaksin at 100%.

Never heard about prior parties that contributed for!

I'm not saying your wrong but if the Isaan people beleive in that way, maybe the other parties don't work in the good direction to get the Isaan votes. They should let them see who did what!

To consider Isaan people idiots can be simply reduce to uneducated.

At least, we're in a new chapter again here and will see the result.

Well, Sisaket is not far from Newin country, and that family has been representing the Isaan area for years - in other words, same MPs, different party. So the faces haven't changed, merely the party in Bangkok.

Prior to Taksin it wasn't called OTOP, so yeah, the one thing he came up with was a name.

My family own large amounts of land in Buriram not far from Sisaket and have been approached as a canvaser for TRT before so yeah, I know exactly how Isaan people think.

They are pretty easy to please; no idea why the other parties are so frigging stupid that they cannot copy a proven TRT formula, but actually do some good.

BTW there have been politicians in the past that have also looked after NE - e.g. Chatichai (govt a complete mess), Kukrit Pramote (genuine assistance and non corrupt) so this is not the first time; just that people from Isaan have the memory span of an ant mostly, rather than an elephant.

[Livinginexile]

When - not "if" - he's back in politics, I will spend an enjoyable hour or two searching the forum for those posts - and posters - who declared unequivocally that he will absolutely never go back into politics.

Just biding my time...

his main priority is one thing only; to ensure his family are not financially wiped out; the only way he could acheive that is either a direct or indirect hand over the judicial process and the media surrounding that. A bonus would be to be able to expand his family's wealth.

This would require actions to disarm the relevant government and independent bodies such as Anti Corruption, the Army, the Police, the Senate, the risk of censure in the house and the media.

The only way to acheive all of these would be to form a majority government large enough to prevent censure, then use a variety of funding to prevent/buy judges and media from blocking him, and then to simultaneously place people of his own choosing in each favoured position. This alone would allow him to ride roughshod over the 1997 Constitution - a necessity because among other things it correctly recognised that deregulation of the telco industry was essential to opening the gateways of communication and the power of the net to the general masses - at a massively lower price.

We've seen it all already - this is the rerun. And it isn't as much fun as watching Season 3 of Family Guy a second time.

Last time it was to prevent deregulation and foreign ownership in media/telcos until he was ready to offload his Shin shares - the massive wealth from selling other assets, property and the one sided FTAs were just bonuses - most of the other wealth such as airport corruption etc were to keep his party members in line. Except for the King Power deal, which was alledgedly probably personal profit. The alleged preferential entry for his kids into Chula and Kaset, the alleged deals for How Come entertainment in obtaining a contract to manage media in the underground trains despite a deal already signed with TRIADS (themselves a family deal from the Chor Gan Chang family empire, a staunch Dems backer), the property deals and lack of transparency - well there were a few feeds at the trough for the Shinwanke_r family along the way, but i digress.

This time around, expect more of the same but most likely via proxy. It is about hiding the deals done in the last 6 years; the dirt is there for sure, and it is merely a question of who and how hard they will go down.

I actually am now hoping that it IS a fractured PPP government but a weak one. There is no way the economy can be saved as it was last time; TRT already has squandered most of the money available; the foreign investment community are wise to TRT/PPP policies and Samak is going to fail unless being a PM is judged on cooking skills. Riding roughshod over the constitution and the judiciary will be a lot harder this time, because he doesn't have 50% of the vote anymore - take a look back in the early 2000 election; he had Bangkok, everywhere except the south and a few isolated places. This time, well he doesn't even have the eastern seaboard - in fact everywhere where money is actually made, he pretty much doesn't have.

I guess buying those votes were too expensive. The more insecure things are, the more likely there will be some big falls. And with each big fall under a Samak fractured coalition, the poor will start to realise how these guys have raped the coffers of Thailand for their own gain. If it is a Dems govt, it will seem like a persecution...it has to be a weak enough coalition though to make sure that Samak can get in, but not strong enough to appoint the judges or shut down other departments.

And with heavyweight bullS**t artists like Chalerm, Samak and Jakapop yet missing the brains of TRT - guys like Somkid - well you have to wonder how long this Talking Heads charade is going to last.

I say Talking Heads for 3 reasons

- Samak is merely a talking head; they all are

- I like the Talking Heads

- Thanks to the morons in the north and NE we are genuinely like the song says 'on a road to nowhere'

Queue the Pendulum Little Creatures DnB remix yo bo bo bo WHO WANZ A REWIND?????? AIOIIIIGHT.

There is always the possibility that a state of emergency will be declared under Samak if things go really badly. Hmmmmm, why does that seems somewhat familiar?

Well, if so maybe the old coot can serve some of his famous pad Thai. Senile goat that he is.

"Morons in the Nth East" huh?

Are you saying the majority of Thai ppl are morons? A peoples party is what is needed here.

Again....the PEOPLE have voted for Thaksin (or a Thaksin friendly government).

TRT did more good for the poor ppl of Thailand than any other previous government.

I say welcome back Thaksin.

I can't wait to see the old scores settled

[yorkman]

"morons in the north and NE "

this sort of comment makes the whole longwinded post worth passing by.

Some are stupid (a small number), some are uneducated but far from stupid (unless you want to sneer down your nose, given their lack of educational opportunities) , and, shock!! there is an educated element in Issan.

[steveromagnino]

"Morons in the Nth East" huh?

Are you saying the majority of Thai ppl are morons? A peoples party is what is needed here.

Again....the PEOPLE have voted for Thaksin (or a Thaksin friendly government).

TRT did more good for the poor ppl of Thailand than any other previous government.

I say welcome back Thaksin.

I can't wait to see the old scores settled

Part of the Thai side of my family is from the Northeast; most of our workers and friends there are uneducated, not that wordly; very hardworking, but they don't have much of a clue what they are voting for - hence - 'morons' for want of a better word, about on par with most of the voters in most countries worldwide.

Through work i have more connections with the inner workings of TRT than most.

Where this myth comes from that Thaksin did all this stuff for the poor comes from I have no idea.

- there was already a healthcare system for poor that was actually economically sustainable prior to Taksin; it just was less widespread, and not well communicated

- giving people cows and 1m baht each village and floor pricing for agricultural products is not sustainable and is merely using govt money to give out freebies; how about spending it on education and genuine long term sustainable value; that's helping the poor!

- the lottery is effectively a tax on the poor; as well as TRT politicians alledgely running the illegal version, they also started running a legal one, with the benefit of having their hands in a legal trough of cash - massive claims of missappropriated funds, and besides which its inception was based on an illegality

- deisel subsidy was short term and again wasted govt coffers on pointless vote grabbing

- the poor of the South of Thailand would massively dispute the 'stuff for the poor' this guy has done

- lying about chicken flu and promoting closed system chicken farming to support their backer CP has screwed over countless chicken farmers

- One sided FTAs with Australia and China have screwed certain crops such as onions and garlic

- no change in police corruption

- war on drugs with no major arrests or clamp down

- profileration of legal easy credit with the poor being the hardest hit by the likes of Easy Buy

- massive landgrabs in the south by TRT politicians at low prices, with subsequent sale of country assets to foreigners

Where is the education; the development of key industries; the TRUE democracy. After all, let's bear in mind that the day after the coup, there was going to be a massive showdown between Newin's mob and the PAD mob, with the likelihood of a state of emergency and no democracy - it was coming down to this either way; only difference was whether it would be a pro or anti Thaksin junta.

The entire TRT empire was set up to acheive mostly business objectives, and to do that requires support of the poor; TRT used govt money to buy the votes rather than their own - smart.

What TRT have not been responsible for, but caught a lucky break included:

- jumps in commodity pricing

- a couple of years anyway of low oil pricing

- China

- USA's economy being relatively strong during that period

- being able to abuse the surplus created by the careful management prior to them getting in power

I totally admire the way in which they market to their electorates, in the same way I admire the efficiency of Amway to build pyramid selling; of cigarette companies to keep growth and of McDs in becoming the world's largest fast food chain. Doesn't mean i agree with what they are doing, but there certainly is an effectiveness in how they get there.

If by old scores settled, you mean that the King Power corruption and airport deals all get swept under the carpet; that the clear corruption of acquiring land and shares of public assets at discounted prices are ignored; that the multiple obvious examples of corruption at the airport and in telco policy are cleared; that the obvious shares purchased for immediate resale by his children are not taxed, in much the same way as he was cleared for obvious asset concealment following the last election....well I think you will get your wish. How this is in any way a positive thing....well to each their own.

At least one, the former Governor of TAT has been caught with their hand in the till. There might be a few more foreign cases to come. One can dream.

Read another longwinded post or not. Doesn't bother me either way. but feel free to advise why you think the country is in good hands when you have 2 trigger happy foot in the mouth most of the time gangsters - Chalerm and Samak - running things.

Edited December 28, 2007 by steveromagnino

[mrtoad]

Read another longwinded post or not. Doesn't bother me either way. but feel free to advise why you think the country is in good hands when you have 2 trigger happy foot in the mouth most of the time gangsters - Chalerm and Samak - running things.

I couldn't agree with you more.

Having Samak and Chalerm running the countyr is a most worry combination indeed. These guys will run roughshod over anyone who they feel is in their way. The sad thing is, that it will probably once again, influence the military to meddle in politics, and as we have seen over the last 16 months, it does the country little good. Until the poor masess are given proper education and not treasted like mushrooms, then the ususal suspects will continue to hold onto power and feather their own nests to the detriment of the majority of the electorate, who fasll to easily for some of the BS policies that are promised but never delivered.

[plachon]

Read another longwinded post or not. Doesn't bother me either way. but feel free to advise why you think the country is in good hands when you have 2 trigger happy foot in the mouth most of the time gangsters - Chalerm and Samak - running things.

I couldn't agree with you more.

Having Samak and Chalerm running the countyr is a most worry combination indeed. These guys will run roughshod over anyone who they feel is in their way. The sad thing is, that it will probably once again, influence the military to meddle in politics, and as we have seen over the last 16 months, it does the country little good. Until the poor masess are given proper education and not treasted like mushrooms, then the ususal suspects will continue to hold onto power and feather their own nests to the detriment of the majority of the electorate, who fasll to easily for some of the BS policies that are promised but never delivered.

Excellent analysis in previous post Steveromagnino, but one thing I felt was missing, which Toxin can be partially credited for is his politicisation of the rural masses to an extent no previous figure or party have managed. Again, it could be argued that it was largely an accidental by-product of his blatant self-aggrandising publicity stunts (like the Atsamat circus) and weekly radio show, or bussing the Isaan adorees down to Muang Thong Thani at the taxpayers expense, etc, etc., but through it all he has planted seeds of political awareness in the average Nakhon Nowhere punter's mind. Still, totally paternalistic and based on modern-day feudalism, but now Somchai na Roi-et knows more than ever that their vote counts and is worth something to someone.

This presents the Democrats with more problems than ever in cracking the Isaan and Northern electorate with anything other than TRT/PPP style wild promises and a purple note for good measure type tactics, when the subtleties (????) of the national political maelstrom are lost on the rural electorate, with the possible exception of taxi drivers who must be quite influential in their own way when they return home to the naa. It also means that until substance wins over form (like offering genuinely low cost education for the masses and not just poor quality paper qualifications and a few high profile carrot scholarships), then the pork barrel, illusionary politics of TRT are likely to hold sway for some time to come. It seems they even fooled half the farang population on TV as well as 80 % of the Isaan population, so they definitely hit a successful formula to be emulated in a psuedo-democracy!!

[steveromagnino]

....one thing I felt was missing, which Toxin can be partially credited for is his politicisation of the rural masses to an extent no previous figure or party have managed. Again, it could be argued that it was largely an accidental by-product of his blatant self-aggrandising publicity stunts (like the Atsamat circus) and weekly radio show, or bussing the Isaan adorees down to Muang Thong Thani at the taxpayers expense, etc, etc., but through it all he has planted seeds of political awareness in the average Nakhon Nowhere punter's mind. Still, totally paternalistic and based on modern-day feudalism, but now Somchai na Roi-et knows more than ever that their vote counts and is worth something to someone.

I admire TRT completely for their westernised style approach to polling and controling key information sources:

- village headmen

- teachers

- universities

- the media

then using quite sophisticated market research to understand what would make people happy, and doing it; this is what lead to the successful and popular (with Thais) social order campaign.

Since the poor don't care about too much (get rid of bad guys, don't sell the country to foreigners, give me money) it wasn't exactly rocket science - universal healthcare, debt forgiveness, 1m baht parties - easy.

Also...initially paying more than ever before to get the regional leaders (the same politicians who had supposedly never helped the poor before were now part of TRT as the various factions which are fairly unchanged pre/post TRT) into TRT), as well as actually paying the villagers and knowing how to control the info flow to them.

in very few countries was there the level of information control that TRT maintained here; most media were too scared to report anything with the threat of the AIS marketing budget held over them. Most journos I know claim press was freer in the coup than during the AIS/TRT era.