The Doom And Gloom Is Laughable

[siamamerican]

It seems most posters are older than myself. Why all the dire economic forecasts? You don't have to be too long at the tooth to have experienced numerous downturns more severe than the current one.

We are roughly six months into this bear market and predictions of a US free-fall and a global depression are popping up all over this forum. Have the doom and gloomers suddenly forgotten all the money they made in the markets the last few years. Investing would be child's play if the markets continually climbed.

It could be that the doom and gloomers got into the markets at the top when THERE WAS SO MUCH MONEY TO BE MADE. Now they are probably out of the markets and won't re-enter until the next peak.

If you can't handle market fluctuations, invest in fixed income assets. Nothing wrong with this and most likely you will be better off financially.

[PeaceBlondie]

Good point, siamamerican. You have better S&P500 records than I have, including dividends. I have had my 401(k) in an S&P500 fund since 1989. How well have I done since then?

[Pib]

Good post...the gloom and doom is "way over done," except maybe for certain real estate investors in California and Florida who tried to get rich quick and those folks heavily invested in financial stocks. I'm expecting by early 2009 people will be looking back at early thru mid 2008 as a great time to buy stocks at once or twice in a decade lows...and then smiling as these stock/mutual fund buys turn into nice profits.

[siamamerican]

Good point, siamamerican. You have better S&P500 records than I have, including dividends. I have had my 401(k) in an S&P500 fund since 1989. How well have I done since then?

Hey, you remember that debate from last year. I wish that I had money in 1989 - still in college. My guess is that your money has more than tripled to quadrupled with dividends reinvested. You were wise enough to ride through the bad times.

[siamamerican]

Good post...the gloom and doom is "way over done," except maybe for certain real estate investors in California and Florida who tried to get rich quick and those folks heavily invested in financial stocks. I'm expecting by early 2009 people will be looking back at early thru mid 2008 as a great time to buy stocks at once or twice in a decade lows...and then smiling as these stock/mutual fund buys turn into nice profits.

Live in N. California and to top it off, I'm in the mortgage business. What a ride it was and still is. I was telling an employee the other day that I enjoy work more than I did during the good times. The joy of the new challenges more than compensate for the additional stress.

I get to experience first hand the market timers that jumped on the real estate bandwagon too late. Usually the first ones that send the keys to the lenders ( jingle mail ).

[PeaceBlondie]

"Jingle mail," envelopes with jingling keys - that is funny. My friend Mike was one of the first townhome owners in Houston to walk into the mortgage office around 1984, trying to arrange a late partial payment, such as two months of overdue months when four were due. The idiot manager explained that under Texas state mortgage law, they could only accept all overdue payments, in full, plus the current month. Mike said, "Let me explain Texas poker. You are now holding a handful of house keys. Goodby, we do not care one bit if it ruins our credit rating." Mike later bought a house and mortgage, and it took the mortgage company about two years to unload his house.

But when it was all said and done, very few homes in Houston were repossessed. Percentagewise, less than 3%, I will bet. This subprime mortgage market should not have caused 2% of all existing residential mortgages to default.

However, the real estate busts in Boston and Texas did prove that real estate values go down as well as up.

Back to Thailand. I doubt this bubble will affect more than 0.00421% of all Thais. Which is 2,652 Thais, according to my Myanmarese calculator.

[Naam]

i agree that the "doom and gloom talk" is overdone but the latest developments are worrying. what surprises me in this thread is the assumption/equation "markets = economy", whether it's stock markets or real estate. the fact remains that if the Greatest Nation on Earth™ goes into a real recession (the jury is still out) then the rest of the world's economies will suffer too. the latter perhaps not to the extent of the old saying "if the U.S. sneezes then...."

[Naam]

Back to Thailand. I doubt this bubble will affect more than 0.00421% of all Thais. Which is 2,652 Thais, according to my Myanmarese calculator.

this result is correct PB. checked it with my old spread"shit" (version from 1992)

[midas]

It seems most posters are older than myself. Why all the dire economic forecasts? You don't have to be too long at the tooth to have experienced numerous downturns more severe than the current one.

We are roughly six months into this bear market and predictions of a US free-fall and a global depression are popping up all over this forum. Have the doom and gloomers suddenly forgotten all the money they made in the markets the last few years. Investing would be child's play if the markets continually climbed.

It could be that the doom and gloomers got into the markets at the top when THERE WAS SO MUCH MONEY TO BE MADE. Now they are probably out of the markets and won't re-enter until the next peak.

If you can't handle market fluctuations, invest in fixed income assets. Nothing wrong with this and most likely you will be better off financially.

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

[bartender100]

Tell it to the one person every 12 minutes who have to hand back their house keys in the Uk that there is no doom and gloom>

[siamamerican]

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

Hmmm, are we referring to the same Clyde that authored "Trading Places" in 1989? The US doom and gloomers loved that one and if they jumped on the Japan bandwagon, they lost most of what they invested.

Thanks for helping make my case.

I'm a big proponent of reading and researching, but in the end have the guts to make your own choice. If you make the right one, you reap the benefits and visa versa. Just like the authors of books choose to make money spinning economic predictions that the public has an appetite for. I wonder how a book titled "Average Economies Performance in the Near-Term" would sell.

[siamamerican]

Tell it to the one person every 12 minutes who have to hand back their house keys in the Uk that there is no doom and gloom>

While I'm at it I could also send my condolences to all the people who invested in technology stocks in 2000; those that lost money in the US recessions in 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973 and let's not forget those still alive that lost money in the Great Depression.

If you're intellectually challenged or just unlucky to invest in an asset at its peak, then there is no means to avoid losses. You are going to have to wait a long time for a world without financial pain, but wouldn’t that be like a football game without a winner. I kind of like the order of things in today’s world better.

Edited March 23, 2008 by siamamerican

[LaoPo]

Live in N. California and to top it off, I'm in the mortgage business. What a ride it was and still is. I was telling an employee the other day that I enjoy work more than I did during the good times. The joy of the new challenges more than compensate for the additional stress.

I get to experience first hand the market timers that jumped on the real estate bandwagon too late. Usually the first ones that send the keys to the lenders ( jingle mail ).

You're a brave man.

Let's talk in another 6 to 12 months as I'm curious to your experiences by that time. It will be interesting times, especially in the American/Californian Mortgage Industry.

Let's see if the 'Doom & Gloom' is still laughable...or not.

LaoPo

Edited March 23, 2008 by LaoPo

[midas]

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

Hmmm, are we referring to the same Clyde that authored "Trading Places" in 1989? The US doom and gloomers loved that one and if they jumped on the Japan bandwagon, they lost most of what they invested.

Thanks for helping make my case.

I'm a big proponent of reading and researching, but in the end have the guts to make your own choice. If you make the right one, you reap the benefits and visa versa. Just like the authors of books choose to make money spinning economic predictions that the public has an appetite for. I wonder how a book titled "Average Economies Performance in the Near-Term" would sell.

I didnt read Trading Places but I can only say most of what he wrote in his latest book seems

to be happening right now and makes sense to me. You go ahead though and make your own choice

[siamamerican]

Live in N. California and to top it off, I'm in the mortgage business. What a ride it was and still is. I was telling an employee the other day that I enjoy work more than I did during the good times. The joy of the new challenges more than compensate for the additional stress.

I get to experience first hand the market timers that jumped on the real estate bandwagon too late. Usually the first ones that send the keys to the lenders ( jingle mail ).

You're a brave man.

Let's talk in another 6 to 12 months as I'm curious to your experiences by that time. It will be interesting times, especially in the American/Californian Mortgage Industry.

Let's see if the 'Doom & Gloom' is still laughable...or not.

LaoPo

The housing market in California is far from laughable. Many of my employees have already lost their houses. Don't understand how one region or investment (real estate ) justifies all the doom and gloom. Many people lost there homes in the mid 80s and the economy recovered. The economy will recover this time also. It's is laughable how some think bubbles are meant to burst and when they do, they come apart at the seams.

[siamamerican]

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

Hmmm, are we referring to the same Clyde that authored "Trading Places" in 1989? The US doom and gloomers loved that one and if they jumped on the Japan bandwagon, they lost most of what they invested.

Thanks for helping make my case.

I'm a big proponent of reading and researching, but in the end have the guts to make your own choice. If you make the right one, you reap the benefits and visa versa. Just like the authors of books choose to make money spinning economic predictions that the public has an appetite for. I wonder how a book titled "Average Economies Performance in the Near-Term" would sell.

I didnt read Trading Places but I can only say most of what he wrote in his latest book seems

to be happening right now and makes sense to me. You go ahead though and make your own choice

You would have said the same thing after reading his book in 1989. A few years later, you would have been wondering where his head was at when he wrote it. All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

[midas]

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

Hmmm, are we referring to the same Clyde that authored "Trading Places" in 1989? The US doom and gloomers loved that one and if they jumped on the Japan bandwagon, they lost most of what they invested.

Thanks for helping make my case.

I'm a big proponent of reading and researching, but in the end have the guts to make your own choice. If you make the right one, you reap the benefits and visa versa. Just like the authors of books choose to make money spinning economic predictions that the public has an appetite for. I wonder how a book titled "Average Economies Performance in the Near-Term" would sell.

I didnt read Trading Places but I can only say most of what he wrote in his latest book seems

to be happening right now and makes sense to me. You go ahead though and make your own choice

You would have said the same thing after reading his book in 1989. A few years later, you would have been wondering where his head was at when he wrote it. All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

just as you said about my posting earlier, you are now making my case for me

To say that America's long-term problems can only be attributed to a recession is naive to say the least.

If you take off your rose tinted glasses for one moment just may be you will able to see

the serious socio economic problems which USA is facing. A lousy education system,

no competitive advantage anymore in any particular fields, a crumbling infrastructure,

do you know how many black people are now in prison in the U.S. ? I could go on on

[Mighty Mouse]

All markets run in cycles. Whether they be equity markets, housing markets, precious metal markets, biotech markets.....

In Australia for example, our house prices double every ten years. An investor who can identify the highs and lows of each cycle and who get the timing right, can make a killing by investing in that particular market. The timing being the important part.

I, for one, hope that the doom sayers get this one right. I'd love to see the DOW crash. If it does it will drag most, if not all, other world markets down with it.

That will create a huge buying opportunity for those investors who are cashed up waiting to buy oversold blue chip stocks....but again, the timing must be spot on.

[PeaceBlondie]

midas accuses us of having on rose-tinted glasses, and mentions "the serious socio economic problems which USA is facing. A lousy education system, no competitive advantage anymore in any particular fields, a crumbling infrastructure.." and here I am in T-H-A-I-L-A-N-D. Hah! Yes, my native country has serious economic and social problems, but it really makes me laugh in comparison.

[Naam]

All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

i don't believe in gloom and doom but your optimism is not warranted and any arguments pointing to history are not valid. there is always a first time when things turn out different. history does not necessarily always repeat itself.

[Jingthing]

just as you said about my posting earlier, you are now making my case for me laugh.gif

To say that America's long-term problems can only be attributed to a recession is naive to say the least.

If you take off your rose tinted glasses for one moment just may be you will able to see

the serious socio economic problems which USA is facing. A lousy education system,

no competitive advantage anymore in any particular fields, a crumbling infrastructure,

do you know how many black people are now in prison in the U.S. ? I could go on on

Well, I would agree the USA has some serious fundamental problems, but you exaggerate a bit. The US education system is mixed; hardly the best overall in the world, and at the lower ages, quality is often dependent on class, but still "producing" plenty of future skilled workers. The other strength is cultural. America still values innovation and independent critical thinking in its education culture and this will no doubt pay continuing dividends for the US economy. Also, brain drained people from all over the world still come to the US to work in great numbers.

The current competitive advantage we have is a weak currency and a relatively stable political system. Crumbling infrastructure? Sure, but at least we have an infrastructure to crumble. A shocking percentage of people in prison? Absolutely, and a sign of a fascist country. But economically, that isn't all bad, as many of the prisons now are privatized profit centers (disgusting as that is) and the public ones are a source of decent paying jobs.

[Naam]

In Australia for example, our house prices double every ten years.

correction! should read "have doubled every ten years." i stand of course corrected if you can look into the future

[midas]

midas accuses us of having on rose-tinted glasses, and mentions "the serious socio economic problems which USA is facing. A lousy education system, no competitive advantage anymore in any particular fields, a crumbling infrastructure.." and here I am in T-H-A-I-L-A-N-D. Hah! Yes, my native country has serious economic and social problems, but it really makes me laugh in comparison.

PeaceBlondie I can see how you can interpret it that way

But the USA once the great world leader is perched high up there and just like

in Europe it's going to be a bitter pill when people have to reduce their living standards

eventually.

In Thailand they have never been at such lofty heights with their living standards

and they get a lot more enjoyment out of little things.

[siamamerican]

Please read this book and it may answer some of your questions. You can get it from Amazon

Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East - by Clyde Prestowitz

( Ex-Reagan administration trade official Prestowitz follows up his critique of U.S. unilateralist foreign

policy in Rogue Nation with this perceptive diagnosis of the nation's economic decline under globalization.)

Hmmm, are we referring to the same Clyde that authored "Trading Places" in 1989? The US doom and gloomers loved that one and if they jumped on the Japan bandwagon, they lost most of what they invested.

Thanks for helping make my case.

I'm a big proponent of reading and researching, but in the end have the guts to make your own choice. If you make the right one, you reap the benefits and visa versa. Just like the authors of books choose to make money spinning economic predictions that the public has an appetite for. I wonder how a book titled "Average Economies Performance in the Near-Term" would sell.

I didnt read Trading Places but I can only say most of what he wrote in his latest book seems

to be happening right now and makes sense to me. You go ahead though and make your own choice

You would have said the same thing after reading his book in 1989. A few years later, you would have been wondering where his head was at when he wrote it. All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

just as you said about my posting earlier, you are now making my case for me

To say that America's long-term problems can only be attributed to a recession is naive to say the least.

If you take off your rose tinted glasses for one moment just may be you will able to see

the serious socio economic problems which USA is facing. A lousy education system,

no competitive advantage anymore in any particular fields, a crumbling infrastructure,

do you know how many black people are now in prison in the U.S. ? I could go on on

Oh please don't stop. Your post is so informative. Stop putting words in my mouth. I never stated the US had long-term problems. Funny, I think you confused myself for yourself. The silly things people do when they get excited.

Last time I checked we had one of the best educational systems around. All those students in college from other countries aren't there for a cheap education.

[siamamerican]

All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

i don't believe in gloom and doom but your optimism is not warranted and any arguments pointing to history are not valid. there is always a first time when things turn out different. history does not necessarily always repeat itself.

True, but I don't remember stating that it always did. Many of my daily activities are influenced by past experiences in my life and others. If something worked for somebody else in the past why reinvent the wheel. History doesn't always repeat itself, but you would be wrong to ignore it.

[misterman21]

The usual suspects refusing to aknowledge the facts! I dont believe they have rose tinted glasses more like tunnel vision. Its all about confidence but their confidence is insignificant on the scale of things.

[Naam]

All will mostlikely be fine with the US and world economies. Hey, we might have a recession, but haven't we had those before?

i don't believe in gloom and doom but your optimism is not warranted and any arguments pointing to history are not valid. there is always a first time when things turn out different. history does not necessarily always repeat itself.

True, but I don't remember stating that it always did. Many of my daily activities are influenced by past experiences in my life and others. If something worked for somebody else in the past why reinvent the wheel. History doesn't always repeat itself, but you would be wrong to ignore it.

some of my friends ignored the present situation which surfaced early summer last year. they made fun of me because i sold quite a bunch of my investments at a loss of 5 and up to 15% whereas they preferred to "ride it out" because history proves "what goes down will go up again". fact is that except for a few ones i could buy back today the positions i sold at 20-30% lower prices and thus increasing my income. i am not prepared to ignore anything but instead of looking back at the water under the bridge i am trying hard to look forward. the latter means i am still looking forward, expect the situation still to deteriorate whilst sitting on a quite comfortable cushion of cash.

[siamamerican]

The usual suspects refusing to aknowledge the facts! I dont believe they have rose tinted glasses more like tunnel vision. Its all about confidence but their confidence is insignificant on the scale of things.

Ok, sanity check please. Can this post be removed. It is much worse than provanity.

"Its all about confidence but their confidence is insignificant on the scale of things".

Please tell - what does that have to do with anything discussed or better yet, what are you trying to say. On second thought, for the love of god, please refrain from explaining.

How old are you?

Edited March 24, 2008 by siamamerican

[misterman21]

Sorry you find my remarks so diificult to comprehend - put it down to tunnel vision!

[Jingthing]

For what it is worth, I think the US stock market is bottoming out and within a year will be up 10-15 percent. The housing market will stagnate much longer. There are some troubling things that have happened that are really not normal, but the US fed has proven they will do just about anything to prevent a meltdown.

Edited March 24, 2008 by Jingthing