Rubber Prices?

[WHITESAND]

I have a rubber farm that is not set to produce for another 2 years. With the amount of rubber now being grown in Thailand what do you think the future holds for rubber prices. A big fall due or slow increase?

[Mosha]

Well a few things to bear in mind.

Last year I saw a programme on Discovery about rubber and 3 things stuck out. The world cannot grow enough of the stuff (Malaysia's white gold), and the synthetic rubber is nowhere near as good or economical. It only grows well within 15 degrees of the equator.

Rubber has been following the oil prices and even if oil does drop back, it is unlikely to drop below 100 USD/Barrel. Look at the growing economies in China and India. Those middle classes are all going to want cars.

I am in your position with 5 year old trees, and the locals are already saying they want to be the ones tapping the trees. The wife's son in law even saying he'll do the lot alone, but (if my maths are right) at 2000 trees and cutting 2 days and resting one. He says he can do 500 trees a night so I think that is 3 tappers.

[Pakeha]

I wouldn't worry.

Humans are, by nature, consumers. Regardless of which fuels we use we will need tyres... Safe bet I say - safer than investing in oil.

[RueFang]

It's hard to know. Last year rubber prices were as low as 63 baht/kg, now they are around 100 baht/kg just a few months later. With petrol prices steadily increasing, rubber prices will remain high in my opinion. Regardless of the price rising or falling, you'll still make profits from your plantation

[SAP]

In the past about 50% of rubber products were made from synthetics, so as the fuel price goes up the products made from synthetics look back to natural rubber. Hence the rise and fall of rubber and oil going hand in hand.

My honest opinion is that this year and next year will be the last of the glory days for rubber prices. Supply and Demand, Thai factories unfortunaltey know this game oh too well, and hence 5-6 years ago the massive push (and by the government too) to plant rubber. And I believe large area's have also been planted in Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Southern China too. Why did this happen, due to Malaysia and Southern Thailand turning their old plantations into Palm Oil. Also alot of the old plantations were not hybrids, the new hybrids will more than double the yields of the tree's that were planted 30 years ago.

I think the price will come back and sit around 45-60 bt/kg (in about 2 years)........although at this price in a well maintained plantation will still give a nice return.

Its just my opinion.

I also believe in Agriculture and it doesn't matter what crop it is, the best way to counter poor prices is by growing healthy high yielding crops.

SAP

[Maizefarmer]

..... so long as China's economy keeps going like it is (which means something like 2000 plus cars per day are being registered ... which means more and more tyres), you can expect the demand for rubber to continue growing. Yes, I believ rubber is a stable/safe bet for the next decade or so at least.

[jongkolkhoo]

..... so long as China's economy keeps going like it is (which means something like 2000 plus cars per day are being registered ... which means more and more tyres), you can expect the demand for rubber to continue growing. Yes, I believ rubber is a stable/safe bet for the next decade or so at least.

almost all (more than 80%) rubber farm in Malaysia changed to palm oil farm last 10 yrs ago. why? price drop to 25 baht /kg then.

also malaysian learn a lesson from tin mine. america bought huge quantity for tin ore from malaysia many years ago and stock pile the ore. when they have a good amount of stock, americans set the price that they want to buy. So the perception is that , america can and will stock rubber and control the price. when the price was 100 baht /kg the last time, insuzu in thungsong sold 100 pickups in 1 day (on a lucky day).

[tracer]

Well a few things to bear in mind.

Last year I saw a programme on Discovery about rubber and 3 things stuck out. The world cannot grow enough of the stuff (Malaysia's white gold), and the synthetic rubber is nowhere near as good or economical. It only grows well within 15 degrees of the equator.

Rubber has been following the oil prices and even if oil does drop back, it is unlikely to drop below 100 USD/Barrel. Look at the growing economies in China and India. Those middle classes are all going to want cars.

I am in your position with 5 year old trees, and the locals are already saying they want to be the ones tapping the trees. The wife's son in law even saying he'll do the lot alone, but (if my maths are right) at 2000 trees and cutting 2 days and resting one. He says he can do 500 trees a night so I think that is 3 tappers.

I didnt see the discovery channel, but prices have gone up a LOT. It used to be about 10 baht/kilo when it was replanted the last time and now 100 baht...

They need regular cutting not 2 nights and then a day off as it may rain any as well...

Its the wrong way to keep those trees in production... If you want to know have a chat with some grandfathers in the vilage!!! We prefer Burmese Labour. NOT because we pay them less but we seem to loose less rubber (g). Only problem is various things which have to be paid.

Son in law: what is he doing at present?? How old??

[jamescollister]

I wouldn't worry about the price of rubber, but the price of labour. Thailand is a booming, more and more investment as are Cambodia and Vietnam. If you look back 20 years to Malaysia, Singapore you can see the cost of labour increases. Many nations grew rubber until the cost of production removed the profit. Even now fewer and fewer Thais will work as tappers on wages. Most want a percentage and that percentage has grown fron 30% to 60% in some areas. I read recently that some Malaysian plantations are paying 80%. So I quess may hay while the sun shines. JIM

[Maizefarmer]

..... so long as China's economy keeps going like it is (which means something like 2000 plus cars per day are being registered ... which means more and more tyres), you can expect the demand for rubber to continue growing. Yes, I believ rubber is a stable/safe bet for the next decade or so at least.

almost all (more than 80%) rubber farm in Malaysia changed to palm oil farm last 10 yrs ago. why? price drop to 25 baht /kg then.

also malaysian learn a lesson from tin mine. america bought huge quantity for tin ore from malaysia many years ago and stock pile the ore. when they have a good amount of stock, americans set the price that they want to buy. So the perception is that , america can and will stock rubber and control the price. when the price was 100 baht /kg the last time, insuzu in thungsong sold 100 pickups in 1 day (on a lucky day).

Fair comment, but my reply was not a comparitive one (i.e. rubber versus palm oil).

China has since 2002 outstripped the USA for rubber imports and consumption - and while the USA's rubber consumption figures (primarily for tyres) has dropped quite a bit since the "credit crunch" started begining 2007, China's rubber imports and consumption has increased by 37% since 2002 - and is expected to keep increasing at an ever growing rate.

USA has little influence over world rubber/latext prices - China's demand is without doubt the dominating force.

Yes, it has dropped overall in price - but has it dropped so much that you feel it is no longer a safe or stable crop to grow??

[Gonsalviz]

After 15 years, I think, latex trees were cut down due to lower production. As I understand it, at this time, they keep cutting them because you have to wait 7 years or so before you can cut the new ones. Also in the market is the wood. The longer they grow the larger they are and therefore sell for more.

[Maizefarmer]

.... also keep in mind the production life of the tree versus when you start to tap it: of course the earlier one can start tapping the quicker you can start deriving an income from the plantation. However, it can be counter productive: start tapping a tree too young you its overall productive life is reduced. A balance has to be established.

Secondly, the larger the tree is when harvetsed for timber the bigger it will be. But this too can be counter productive in that the older a tree is the more knots the timber will have. How much consideration is given to that in Thailand I don;t know, but I do know that in French West Africa (Gabon), the less knots in the timber the better the price it fetches per cubic meter. I sthat an issue in Thailand? - personally my knowldege of rubber tree timber is somewhat limited, but I do have some of the stuff in an out - building roof, and it has lasted 15 years - with every indication that it has just as long left, if not longer.

[scotbeve]

Well a few things to bear in mind.

Last year I saw a programme on Discovery about rubber and 3 things stuck out. The world cannot grow enough of the stuff (Malaysia's white gold), and the synthetic rubber is nowhere near as good or economical. It only grows well within 15 degrees of the equator.

Rubber has been following the oil prices and even if oil does drop back, it is unlikely to drop below 100 USD/Barrel. Look at the growing economies in China and India. Those middle classes are all going to want cars.

I am in your position with 5 year old trees, and the locals are already saying they want to be the ones tapping the trees. The wife's son in law even saying he'll do the lot alone, but (if my maths are right) at 2000 trees and cutting 2 days and resting one. He says he can do 500 trees a night so I think that is 3 tappers.

A good tapper can do up to 550 trees a night... Inexperienced tappers (first timers after a month) 350 - 400 trees a night.

[jamescollister]

Well a few things to bear in mind.

Last year I saw a programme on Discovery about rubber and 3 things stuck out. The world cannot grow enough of the stuff (Malaysia's white gold), and the synthetic rubber is nowhere near as good or economical. It only grows well within 15 degrees of the equator.

Rubber has been following the oil prices and even if oil does drop back, it is unlikely to drop below 100 USD/Barrel. Look at the growing economies in China and India. Those middle classes are all going to want cars.

I am in your position with 5 year old trees, and the locals are already saying they want to be the ones tapping the trees. The wife's son in law even saying he'll do the lot alone, but (if my maths are right) at 2000 trees and cutting 2 days and resting one. He says he can do 500 trees a night so I think that is 3 tappers.

Since tappers are on a percentage not a wage better to have more than less, it still only costs the owner the same. Plus if the tappers are pushing to do the work they will tap badly. I have tappers who hire day workers out of the share to do the collecting and transport to our factory. Good reliable tappers are hard to find. As with many rural Thais, if they have money in there pocket why work. Jim

A good tapper can do up to 550 trees a night... Inexperienced tappers (first timers after a month) 350 - 400 trees a night.

[thebarron]

Well a few things to bear in mind.

Last year I saw a programme on Discovery about rubber and 3 things stuck out. The world cannot grow enough of the stuff (Malaysia's white gold), and the synthetic rubber is nowhere near as good or economical. It only grows well within 15 degrees of the equator.

Rubber has been following the oil prices and even if oil does drop back, it is unlikely to drop below 100 USD/Barrel. Look at the growing economies in China and India. Those middle classes are all going to want cars.

I am in your position with 5 year old trees, and the locals are already saying they want to be the ones tapping the trees. The wife's son in law even saying he'll do the lot alone, but (if my maths are right) at 2000 trees and cutting 2 days and resting one. He says he can do 500 trees a night so I think that is 3 tappers.

[thebarron]

Hi I have tree plots each with 1200 trees and a family of two can do the cutting with no problems they cut at night and collect in the morning and make the mats and then i go and pick them up and put them in the drying store all works very well

[jamescollister]

Hi I have tree plots each with 1200 trees and a family of two can do the cutting with no problems they cut at night and collect in the morning and make the mats and then i go and pick them up and put them in the drying store all works very well

How many trees a tapper can do in a night and do pancakes is not really relevant, What counts is how much rubber [ money ] you get out of those trees. It makes no difference to the owner if he has one tapper doing 1000 trees or 400, the cut is 40/60 or 50/50.

What does impact on out put is the tapping time, if a tapper has a smaller amount of trees to tap, he can pick the time of night to get the most rubber. If he has large amounts to tap he has to start and finish at set times, which in turn will see trees opened either too early or too late, which will cut down on their out put. Add to that not all tappers are equal, some are fast and good, some are fast and bad. If he has time he can do a better job and not do damage to the trees.

In the end you will know how much rubber you get and how it compares to others out put. Jim