Thaksin and Wife Fail to Board Return Flight

[cloudhopper]

As Thailand is a major center for housing and caring for Great Britain's criminal population, it is only fitting and fair that England should likewise provide housing and care for Dr. Shinawatra.

Too true!

[easybullet3]

its like a badly written weekly Soap on TV. everyone knows in advance they are gonna skip bail and not come back to thailand! everyone knows they pre-arranged this with the thai authorities. everyone knows that the 3 years jail sentence was to give thai people faith in the thai system. everyone kows that 90% of the thais probably believe all this rubbish. and everyone knows that taksin and his wife are laughing at how easy this stunt was to pull off!!

anyway.. every country has its own corruption and I am sure that each of our own countries has many bad stories to its name too.

but thailand seems to have this way of waiving corruption right in-front of its citizens noses and so poorly covers everything up, and everyone knows! unfortunately the government just does what it wants and there is zero democracy in this place.

[Heng]

I'd still say a big som nam nar is in order for the Thaksin "haters."

They are still free (and comfortable) and most of ya'll will still have to line up at Suan Phlu or wherever once a year (or more).

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the golden rule applies everywhere.

But that doesn't make it right.

Of course. He is reaping what he sowed.

As for the anti-gov't/anti Thaksin whingers and their equally fanatic counterparts, by and large, none of them will be better off either way. It's like cheering for a professional sports team or for your country at the Olympics. You're just searching for victory, pride, confidence, etc. vicariously through someone else's experiences. And if 'your team' happens to win, guess what, you don't get to hold the trophy or medal yourself, and no one sends you a cut of the winnings. By the same token, your visa, property ownership, business ownership, etc. issues will be virtually unchanged at the end of the day.

[Prakanong]

...yes I think he has had a british passport for some time,...dual/multi nationality...

I may be wrong but I do not think he has either a ritish passport or British nationality - I have never seen reference to that anywhere but on here.

He may have indefinete leave to remain or such like from investment but I doubt he has a British passport or Nationality (Yet) - they stopped Al Fayed and I bet they would stop Thaksin too

[sriracha john]

The great getaway

Discussions on whether and why Thaksin Shinawatara should go into exile and seek political asylum lasted a month, before a decision was made and plans were finalised. Thaksin Shinawatra's decision to go back into exile overseas followed two meetings with PM Samak in the past month, a highly placed source in the PPP said. The two men discussed ways the PPP could deal with the anti-government sentiment that had intensified since Thaksin's return from his first period of self-exile, the source said. Thaksin had agreed to meet with Samak and discuss the possibility of his leaving the country again after people close to him several times urged him to stay overseas until the political rifts in the country eased. People in Thaksin's close circle pointed out that his presence in Thailand had undesirably painted the PPP-led coalition as a nominee government serving his interests, the source said. This image had been the cause of many of the difficulties the government experienced. It could not push through implementation of its policies, Thaksin was told. Negative rumours about Thaksin were frequently circulated and he could not control the situation. More importantly, the political rifts between pro-and anti-Thaksin people had turned increasingly violent. Because of this people around Thaksin suggested that he leave Thailand and live in exile abroad, said the source. At the two meetings Thaksin discussed his best options with Samak. People close to Thaksin were informed about two weeks in advance that he would not return to Bangkok. Thaksin had employed a team of lawyers in Britain to make an application for political asylum, the source said. It was believed they had already filed the papers. The source said it was expected that Thaksin's absence would lead to an easing of political tensions and that Samak would be in sole control of the

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=129537

[sriracha john]

PM declines to comment on arrest warrant for Thaksin

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej yesterday declined to comment on the issuance of an arrest warrant for former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Potjaman, who failed to attend a court date earlier yesterday. Minister of Justice Somphong Amornwiwat assured that his ministry was not involved in proceedings to do with the case and stated that the Supreme Court will have to contact the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the matter.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education Somchai Wongsawat said that the cancellation of the deposed premier's passport is being considered by relevant agencies and must first have its legality reviewed.

He assured that the Supreme Court's decision did not and will not receive any interference from the government.

- ThaiNews

[LifeConvo]

Hardly a "great getaway" Dont dont have to be too bright to have realised this was setup as an "out" for thuksin from the very start... "you will serve 3 years in jail for your crime.. but hey do you want the weekend off to leave the country and see the olympics? we trust you will come back"

Thais keep faith in their justice system, thuksin and wife get a walk.

It's ironic that the idea was to stop corruption.. and then this happens.

[5tash]

...yes I think he has had a british passport for some time,...dual/multi nationality...

I may be wrong but I do not think he has either a ritish passport or British nationality - I have never seen reference to that anywhere but on here.

He may have indefinete leave to remain or such like from investment but I doubt he has a British passport or Nationality (Yet) - they stopped Al Fayed and I bet they would stop Thaksin too

Yes, I agree, Thailand doesn't allow it's citizens to hold dual citizenship.

[stumonster]

Discussions on whether and why Thaksin Shinawatara should go into exile and seek political asylum lasted a month, before a decision was made and plans were finalised. Thaksin Shinawatra's decision to go back into exile overseas followed two meetings with PM Samak in the past month, a highly placed source in the PPP said.

conspiring to pervert the course of Justice ? The opposition should be having a field day - where are their responses ?

[steffi]

They don't enforce that though do they in so far as Thais in the US have US citizenship and retain it when they return to Thailand no?

...yes I think he has had a british passport for some time,...dual/multi nationality...

I may be wrong but I do not think he has either a ritish passport or British nationality - I have never seen reference to that anywhere but on here.

He may have indefinete leave to remain or such like from investment but I doubt he has a British passport or Nationality (Yet) - they stopped Al Fayed and I bet they would stop Thaksin too

Yes, I agree, Thailand doesn't allow it's citizens to hold dual citizenship.

[Plus]

The total amount of bail seized is 13 mil, I think, some papers mentioned 500,000 US dollars - not a small change.

There's even bigger 60-80 billion baht - 2 billion US dollars, left in the banks that Thaksin can kiss good bye.

Even if the UK grants him an assylum - good luck to him, he can't leave that cold, miserable country ever again. Forget golfing in Bali or shopping in Hong Kong.

Fair enough, I think. That would teach him a lesson no less than Bangkok prisons, and that's the whole point, isn't it - to deter further crimes. Anyone in a similar position would think hard - what is sweet deal and an easy escape for us is not so sweet for someone who's stripped of all his wealth, business, and social standing he spend all his life to build.

He also get occasional glass of water thrown at his face in Thai restaurants there. Double whammy - he can't even eat Thai food in peace anymore.

Even more, I suspect he is largely broke. You can never say it for sure with people like him, but his financial commitments to City are not small, whatever he squirelled away can easily go down that drain. It was mostly borrowed anyway, he bought it when he still had 2 billion in Thailand as his own.

As for the joy of vindication and our trips to Suan Plu - how's that even related? TV is a cyberspace with cyberlives, cyberfoes, cybersorrows and cyberjoy. It rarely connects with our real lives, especially News Clippings. Besides, I don't feel particularly overjoyed with Thaksin's great escape. Should I be? It's just an interesting development, but we had discussed his life in England a year ago already, there's hardly anything new. It was extradition requests in the same Ratchada case, same arrest warrants stuck to the gates of his Moon residence.

What is new is Pojamarn's conviction, and that is a clear case of a tax evasion. It might have an effect on extradition procceedings if she doesn't get assylum right away.

[steffi]

If Samak assisted Thaksin's getaway then isn't that an impeachable offence?

Hardly a "great getaway" Dont dont have to be too bright to have realised this was setup as an "out" for thuksin from the very start... "you will serve 3 years in jail for your crime.. but hey do you want the weekend off to leave the country and see the olympics? we trust you will come back"

Thais keep faith in their justice system, thuksin and wife get a walk.

It's ironic that the idea was to stop corruption.. and then this happens.

[Heng]

They don't enforce that though do they in so far as Thais in the US have US citizenship and retain it when they return to Thailand no?

Yes. And quite the opposite as they actually help with the process. Ask any inter-Thai or foreigner (with luk krung child) who has had to obtain 'legalization' of their child's local Thai birth certificate to present to their "home" country embassy from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs out near Laksi. The MFA knows perfectly well that these requests are to obtain a 2nd and sometimes 3rd citizenship.

[stevehaigh]

They don't enforce that though do they in so far as Thais in the US have US citizenship and retain it when they return to Thailand no?

Yes. And quite the opposite as they actually help with the process. Ask any inter-Thai or foreigner (with luk krung child) who has had to obtain 'legalization' of their child's local Thai birth certificate to present to their "home" country embassy from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs out near Laksi. The MFA knows perfectly well that these requests are to obtain a 2nd and sometimes 3rd citizenship.

my friend has both Thai and US passports and somehow manages to travel on both

[marshbags]

I'd still say a big som nam nar is in order for the Thaksin "haters."

They are still free (and comfortable) and most of ya'll will still have to line up at Suan Phlu or wherever once a year (or more).

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the golden rule applies everywhere.

You reckon do you.

We in general are here by choice, are free to come and go, and can stay in Thailand so long as we qualify to do so.

We can also return to our country of abode as and when we choose to do so, without fear of arrest and jail time.

While we may not be corrupt and as a result rich beyond what is legally achievable, we are comfortable with our chosen lot and that,s a fact.

Your man Thaksin is far more suited to your pathetic " som nam nar " quote.

He is a man ?? who is governed by his ego and greed for power and still more money and comfort to him includes not only the 3 i,ve mentioned, but several others.

All of which he cannot have in his once comfortable Thailand as happened, prior to his self enforced exile, out of fear of what is to come, not only for himself but his family also, all of which, i,d like to add are justly deserved.

He is at last starting to receive what Thai believe is payback for bad things you do in your life, in his case overseeing the murder of innocentsnot only in the EKJ,s but also the ones in the south that included an other infamous murderous situation of Thai inocents who suaght sanctuary and safety in the local temple.

KARMA you will know is far more applicable than your pathetic attempt at being a t*a* and making an offensive and sarcatic remark which is offensive to all members, myself included who have to, line up at Suan Phlu or wherever once a year (or more).

You are in this small statement displaying what you actually think of us all.......

Respect you thought you had for yourself just went out the window.

Your status and money can never buy it back, from most of those who have to LINE UP

I.M. Honest O. of course.

marshbags

Edited August 12, 2008 by marshbags

[Prakanong]

"Even more, I suspect he is largely broke. You can never say it for sure with people like him, but his financial commitments to City are not small, whatever he squirelled away can easily go down that drain. It was mostly borrowed anyway, he bought it when he still had 2 billion in Thailand as his own."

I thought Forbes said his wealth increasec over 100 million USD over the last year - if it did i bet the money is not in Thailand.

Nevertheless - he will have plenty salted away in secure accounts outside Thailand as do all the puu yai in Thailand - you think they trust their own banks?

singapore is a favourite of S E Asian gopdfathers to stash cash - safe and secure ansd hard for countries to get cash back.

[Prakanong]

They don't enforce that though do they in so far as Thais in the US have US citizenship and retain it when they return to Thailand no?

Yes. And quite the opposite as they actually help with the process. Ask any inter-Thai or foreigner (with luk krung child) who has had to obtain 'legalization' of their child's local Thai birth certificate to present to their "home" country embassy from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs out near Laksi. The MFA knows perfectly well that these requests are to obtain a 2nd and sometimes 3rd citizenship.

my friend has both Thai and US passports and somehow manages to travel on both

I know a few with two passports too ie Thai and another

My point is though I do not think he has a British passport - how would he qualify for one so quickly say since 2006?

Its only on TV this has been brought up without any back up.

[mrtoad]

I'd never heard thew one about Thaksin and a British passport until reading this thread. I think that it is highly unlikely, given that Thaksin has not resided in the UK for long enough, and with all the political conotations, I would find it hard to believe that he would have just been issued one. The fact that he is applying for "Political Asylum" suggests clearly that he doesn't have such a passport, although he may want one.

[Plus]

I don't remember particulars of that Forbes report, but it might be related to the value of land and real estate properties in Thailand (and England, too, of course).

Will anyone lend him millions of dollars against those properties? He's a fugitive, remember? And it was Prakhanong's own post in Man City thread with the story how Thaksin had to borrow 2 mil pounds to pay wages on time, and he can't just pop up in Singapore or Switzerland for a withdrawal anymore. Wait until they recall his passport altogether.

He probably has enough to live in comfort, but that is not enough for him, is it? The level of being "broke" is a bit higher for him than for the rest of us, but it hurts just the same. He's got kids, too, he can't provide them with life the richest man in Thailand should.

Will they have to go to work like the rest of us? They can't come back to Thailand either, they are defendants in criminal cases, too - he used them as a human shield.

What a fuc_k up!

This is the end of that particular branch of Shinawatra family tree.

Happy Mother's Day, Khungying Pojamarn. There's a lot to reflect on today for all of us.

[Prakanong]

Not my post in the Man City thread but it does look like the money there is non-existent.

Maybe the Thai assets have increased re Forbes but the UK assets will not have risen by 100 million. I am sure he could sell one of the properties and live a comfortable life most would like but maybe not enough for him.

He will have enough salted away and even if he can not get to Switzerland, singapore there is no need for him to be there physically - how many of us here bank in placeswe have never visited - I have never been to luxembourg.

Maybe not a billionaire in USD terms anymore but I bethe is still wealthy enough to make the Sunday Times Rich List

[younghusband]

There's even bigger 60-80 billion baht - 2 billion US dollars, left in the banks that Thaksin can kiss good bye.

Even if the UK grants him an assylum - good luck to him, he can't leave that cold, miserable country ever again. Forget golfing in Bali or shopping in Hong Kong.

Fair enough, I think. That would teach him a lesson no less than Bangkok prisons, and that's the whole point, isn't it - to deter further crimes. Anyone in a similar position would think hard - what is sweet deal and an easy escape for us is not so sweet for someone who's stripped of all his wealth, business, and social standing he spend all his life to build.

I'm sure there are many here who will agree with your description of England, and indeed that country's dreadful weather has for centuries driven many to warmer climates.And yet.... the perfect English summer when or if it comes makes the countryside at least an earthly paradise.

Returning to Thaksin his problem in England is something which I think you Plus touched on long ago - his complete lack of an interior landscape i.e no intellectual, artistic or cultural interests: just the vulgarity of an arriviste -Louis Vuitton, expensive watches,Armani suits, half baked "management" manuals ( instead of real books)

I'm not sure whether it made sense for him to skip bail.My hunch is that it was worked out as part of a deal.Thaksin in chokey would have been a ticking timebomb whereas exile means the noble matyr act is not possible, opposite really.So farewell Thaksin as Private Eye likes to say in its obituary messages.

I had to stifle a gasp when reading Korn's rather good column in the Bangkok Post today when he mentioned his Dad's bewilderment at the support for a corrupt billionaire.Isn't that really the big question -whether the sophisticated end of the Thai ruling class gets it or not?

Edited August 12, 2008 by younghusband

[george]

Breaking News:

England a 'safe haven' for Thaksin

BANGKOK: -- Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife will be granted political asylum in Britain, political analysts predicted after the ex-premier fled to England on Monday.

Thitinant Pongsuthirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Mr Thaksin and his wife opted for exile because they knew they would lose their court cases here.

He predicted Mr Thaksin and his wife would enjoy their exile in the United Kingdom, which is known to provide asylum to those who can prove they were politically persecuted, could not rely on the justice system in their country and were facing threats to their lives.

Chulalongkorn's Chaiyant Chaiyaporn and Sombat Thamrongthanyawong, the rector of the National Institute of Development Administration, doubted Mr Thaksin would end his role in politics despite living outside Thailand.

"Keep a watch on the coming military reshuffle. If his trusted associates are in power, he may come back," Mr Chaiyant said.

Mr Thaksin could still pull strings through former members of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai, he added.

-- Bangkok Post 2008-08-12

[george]

Government seeking exile for citizen 'unjustified,' says foreign ministry

BANGKOK: -- Foreign Ministry spokesman Tarit Charoongwat on Monday ruled out the possibility of the Thai government moving to seek exile for a citizen, saying it is unjustifiable to do that.

In principle, he said, people, who seek exile in foreign countries, must have sufficient reason to back their claim of being unable to live in their country due to differences of views to the administrative rule or for a security concern.

So, it is unjustified for the Thai government or any governments to seek exile for their citizens because that means they are unable to take care of their nationals properly.

Asked whether the ministry would be informed in case former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra seeks exile in England, he said the matter is up to the discretion of the British Embassy in Thailand.

In accordance with Britain's immigration law implemented by that country's Interior Ministry, officials could not reveal the status of people who go into exile.

"I cannot identify what status Mr. Thaksin is using to live in England. One person can live in a particular country under different status such as businessperson and investors.

"So, the ex-premier can live in England in a status other than being an exile," he said.

Mr. Tarit said the ministry would not act as a coordinator of Mr. Thaksin's exile, adding that what it could do on the matter relies on the court's order.

Asked whether it is necessary for the ministry to seek extradition, he said Thailand and England had a mutual agreement on the matter.

The ministry is ready to liaise with the British government through its embassy in Thailand or the Thai embassy in England if requested by the court and public lawyers, he said.

Regarding news reports that the ministry would seize the diplomatic passports held by Mr. Thaksin and his wife, Mr. Tarit said he had was not yet aware of the matter, but that in principle the court is entitled to revoke or terminate passports of convicted people to prevent them from escaping into other countries.

Mr. Thaksin and his wife diplomatic passports were reinstated when his then legal advisor Noppadon Pattama assumed the position of foreign minister.

-- TNA 2008-08-12

[george]

Analysis: End of an era

Deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's refusal on Monday to return to face four court cases on corruption charges effectively puts an end to his controversial political career, but his legacy may prove harder to kill.

Thaksin and his wife Potjamarn were allowed to travel to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games Friday.

Although they had booked return tickets to Bangkok Sunday evening they never boarded the flight, heading instead for London where Thaksin, a billionaire, owns the Manchester City football club and several properties.

The former first couple had been ordered to appear at the Supreme Court Monday, to start proceedings in an abuse of power case involving Potjamarn's 772-million-baht ($23 million) purchase of a piece of prime real estate on Ratchadaphisek Road at a public auction in 2003 when Thaksin was still prime minister.

The likelihood of Thaksin remaining free after the four court cases pending against him was slim, and the Thai judiciary had already sent him a strong message that he was not untouchable when they sentenced his wife and business partner Potjamarn to jail.

On July 31, in the first major blow to the former first family, the Bangkok Criminal Court sentenced Khunying Potjamarn to three years in jail for avoiding a tax bite amounting to 546 million baht on a share transfer to her stepbrother Bannapot Damapong and her secretary Karnchanapa Honghern in 1997.

The verdict left Thaksin visibly shaken.

"It's understandable he decided not to come back," said Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party that Thaksin led during his dual premierships from 2001 to 2006. "He probably thought it was now or never."

As it has turned out, the judiciary has proved to be Thaksin's downfall.

Thaksin was toppled by a military coup on Sept 19, 2006, on charges of corruption, dividing the nation and undermining democracy and the monarchy.

He stayed abroad in self-exile throughout 2007, while a military-appointed government ruled Thailand, returning only on last Feb 28, after an elected, pro-Thaksin government was in place.

Despite his political connections and efforts to manipulate the court system, the judiciary has plowed ahead with cases against the Shinawatras.

Thaksin, in a statement he issued Monday in London, claimed the court cases against his family were part of a conspiracy by his political enemies to keep him out of politics. If so, they have succeeded, at least in the short term.

"Thaksin's political future is finished," opined political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) at Chulalongkorn University and a Bangkok Post analyst.

Like many Thai academics, Thitinan is in two minds about Thaksin.

While Thitinan opposed Thaksin - the wily and corrupt politician who manipulated Thailand's political system for his own gain and that of his political cronies - he admired the "Thaksin legacy" of using essential populist policies to provide Thailand's rural and urban poor with a better deal and empower them through elections.

"That legacy is in danger of being swept under the carpet," said Thitinan. "Whether Thaksin really changed Thailand or not, we will have to wait and see in the coming months."

One movement that bears watching will be the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a loose coalition of anti-Thaksin forces that have been holding street demonstrations since May, calling for the demise of the current coalition government led by the blatantly pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) that won the December 2007 elections.

With Thaksin now effectively out of the picture, it remains to be seen if the PAD will stop campaigning for the government's downfall and continue to oppose calls for amendments to the military-sponsored 2007 constitution that aim at strengthening the political party system.

There have been indications that the PAD's goals have shifted from being just anti-Thaksin to being anti-democratic, such as calls for a completely appointed Senate, a move that would benefit Thailand's traditional political elite - the bureaucracy, military and old money.

"The theory that all Thailand's political problems occurred because of Thaksin will soon be proved wrong," predicted one former member of the Thai Rak Thai. "The real problem of the divide between political parties and the elite hasn't gone way."

-- DPA 2008-08-12

[younghusband]

Like many Thai academics, Thitinan is in two minds about Thaksin.

While Thitinan opposed Thaksin - the wily and corrupt politician who manipulated Thailand's political system for his own gain and that of his political cronies - he admired the "Thaksin legacy" of using essential populist policies to provide Thailand's rural and urban poor with a better deal and empower them through elections.

"That legacy is in danger of being swept under the carpet," said Thitinan. "Whether Thaksin really changed Thailand or not, we will have to wait and see in the coming months."

One movement that bears watching will be the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a loose coalition of anti-Thaksin forces that have been holding street demonstrations since May, calling for the demise of the current coalition government led by the blatantly pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) that won the December 2007 elections.

With Thaksin now effectively out of the picture, it remains to be seen if the PAD will stop campaigning for the government's downfall and continue to oppose calls for amendments to the military-sponsored 2007 constitution that aim at strengthening the political party system.

There have been indications that the PAD's goals have shifted from being just anti-Thaksin to being anti-democratic, such as calls for a completely appointed Senate, a move that would benefit Thailand's traditional political elite - the bureaucracy, military and old money.

"The theory that all Thailand's political problems occurred because of Thaksin will soon be proved wrong," predicted one former member of the Thai Rak Thai. "The real problem of the divide between political parties and the elite hasn't gone way."

-- DPA 2008-08-12

Thanks George for posting this.Khun Thitnan reflects my position precisely. and I suspect that of the wider world beyond our rather one dimensional discussions.

[grantbkk]

I believe that people that live in exile must stay in the host country unless granted asylum in another country. For our former leader and resident megalomaniac being stuck on an island west of France will seem like prison to him. He will compare himself to Napoleon and his island exile. It is hard for most of us to get our heads around the idea that his is suffering but he really will be. Much of his ill gotten gains are frozen and he has been demoted to millionaire status and will find it hard to get a dinner reservation in London. Island fever will literally drive this former international mover and shaker crazy. Most of the famous and popular English figures, except Sir Elton John, have left the UK for a better life and less taxes. Think of the satisfaction of actually having him pay taxes for the first time in his life. Extreme loss of face for businessmen in Thailand. Now if the English can only wrestle Man City from him...

In my humble opinion, and I got a million of them, we are all better off with him out of the country.

[george]

Thaksin's exile won't bring end to political turmoil: observers

BANGKOK: -- Although former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has fled to live in exile, Thai politics is not likely to stabilise soon, with the focus moving to the government and the People Power Party, political observers said.

A PPP source, who asked not to be named, said the conclusion to this story would not come soon as Thaksin has signalled he will continue to defend himself at the right time.

Chamlong Srimuang, leader of the antigovernment People's Alliance for Democracy, said the group would continue rallying, regardless of whether Thaksin returns or not.

Opposition chief whip Sathit Wongnongtoey, also a Democrat executive, said Thaksin's role in politics, the court's decision and the government's movements from now on would be the main factors in Thai politics.

Thaksin made his choice not to defend himself within the judicial system. However, his staying in Thailand would only cause more confrontation as the PPP attempts to amend the Constitution and opposition from the PAD increases.

Opposition and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Thaksin should have taken a break from politics but his remarks attacking the judicial system could mean he will not leave easily.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science, said the focus in the future would be on whether Samak, as prime minister and PPP leader, would become more powerful and what he would do.

Meanwhile, politics would also focus on whether the Democrats take the opportunity to become the people's alternative and whether rural people would support them.

However, Thitinan said he was worried about the strength of the political party system. If it becomes weak, politics and the government would weaken accordingly.

Thitinan said much would also depend on Thaksin's behaviour. Attacking the judicial system would only add salt to the wounds, he said.

While Samak declined to comment, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said Thaksin's decision had no impact on the party as it did not depend on any particular person. Neither he nor Samak had contacted Thaksin lately.

Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat said the accusation of the PPP being Thaksin's nominee could be cleared now that Thaksin had gone. Thaksin had nothing to do with the PPP even though some MPs felt loyalty to Thaksin.

Meanwhile, PM's Office Minister Choosak Sirinin said Thaksin's decision could bring the PPP more unity.

Political scientist Sukhum Nualsakul said powerholders within the PPP could change, while Samak could take Thaksin's place in controlling the party. The PPP might not be able to survive in case of serious conflicts within the party. However, it would take some time before such changes happen.

Pitch Pongsawat of Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science said the survival of the PPP depended on the party's economic administration.

-- The Nation 2008-08-12

[brahmburgers]

Shame on British authorities if they grant assylum to the Shinawatre family. Their claim for assylum does not remotely fit within the parameters of assylum.

Shame also on the Thai authorities who gave them back diplomatic passports. Indeed, the Shinawatres should have no passports, considering their legal perdicatment. A black mark is also given to whichever authorities allowed them to post bail and skip out of the country - purportedly because there was no risk of fleeing.

[hammered]

Like many Thai academics, Thitinan is in two minds about Thaksin.

While Thitinan opposed Thaksin - the wily and corrupt politician who manipulated Thailand's political system for his own gain and that of his political cronies - he admired the "Thaksin legacy" of using essential populist policies to provide Thailand's rural and urban poor with a better deal and empower them through elections.

"That legacy is in danger of being swept under the carpet," said Thitinan. "Whether Thaksin really changed Thailand or not, we will have to wait and see in the coming months."

One movement that bears watching will be the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a loose coalition of anti-Thaksin forces that have been holding street demonstrations since May, calling for the demise of the current coalition government led by the blatantly pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) that won the December 2007 elections.

With Thaksin now effectively out of the picture, it remains to be seen if the PAD will stop campaigning for the government's downfall and continue to oppose calls for amendments to the military-sponsored 2007 constitution that aim at strengthening the political party system.

There have been indications that the PAD's goals have shifted from being just anti-Thaksin to being anti-democratic, such as calls for a completely appointed Senate, a move that would benefit Thailand's traditional political elite - the bureaucracy, military and old money.

"The theory that all Thailand's political problems occurred because of Thaksin will soon be proved wrong," predicted one former member of the Thai Rak Thai. "The real problem of the divide between political parties and the elite hasn't gone way."

-- DPA 2008-08-12

Thanks George for posting this.Khun Thitnan reflects my position precisely. and I suspect that of the wider world beyond our rather one dimensional discussions.

I think if one looks at who controls the PPP and compares it to who set up the TRT in the first place any pro-poor legacy of Thaksin was lost some time ago. Indeed now with Thaksin away there awaits a PhD thesis by someone of Thaksin, the TRT and the maybe false dawn or possibly lost oppotunity (depending on your theoretical standpoint) of the poor in Thailand. Now if only I had time.......

[Siripon]

Like many Thai academics, Thitinan is in two minds about Thaksin.

While Thitinan opposed Thaksin - the wily and corrupt politician who manipulated Thailand's political system for his own gain and that of his political cronies - he admired the "Thaksin legacy" of using essential populist policies to provide Thailand's rural and urban poor with a better deal and empower them through elections.

"That legacy is in danger of being swept under the carpet," said Thitinan. "Whether Thaksin really changed Thailand or not, we will have to wait and see in the coming months."

One movement that bears watching will be the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a loose coalition of anti-Thaksin forces that have been holding street demonstrations since May, calling for the demise of the current coalition government led by the blatantly pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) that won the December 2007 elections.

With Thaksin now effectively out of the picture, it remains to be seen if the PAD will stop campaigning for the government's downfall and continue to oppose calls for amendments to the military-sponsored 2007 constitution that aim at strengthening the political party system.

There have been indications that the PAD's goals have shifted from being just anti-Thaksin to being anti-democratic, such as calls for a completely appointed Senate, a move that would benefit Thailand's traditional political elite - the bureaucracy, military and old money.

"The theory that all Thailand's political problems occurred because of Thaksin will soon be proved wrong," predicted one former member of the Thai Rak Thai. "The real problem of the divide between political parties and the elite hasn't gone way."

-- DPA 2008-08-12

Thanks George for posting this.Khun Thitnan reflects my position precisely. and I suspect that of the wider world beyond our rather one dimensional discussions.

I can't think of one act by Thaksin that empowered the working class. There were few parties less democratic than TRT where MPs were ordered and treated as employees of Thaksin, as indeed they were.

Real empowerment would have meant focusing on education, decentralisation, areas he ignored.

I don't think it's over, note in his fax he asked his supporters to be patient a little longer. I see his hopes as this:

1. Army reshuffle in his favour

2 Able to shift key members of the independent organisations

3.Able to provoke the PAD into street clashes by constant efforts to change constitution, leading to a coup in his favour- all court cases then declared unlawful.

4.Able to bribe some senior officials in the judicial process- don't think that 2 million baht lunchbox is the end of that.

He won't give up because the man has nothing but an enormous ego to nurture and now the Man City toy has lost its shine.