A Dummy's Guide For...

[Gaccha]

In order to maximise your democratic involvement in possible future events I have set out a guide of things to watch out for in any possible coup attempt. If you can, fill in the answers to the questions and post them on the site as the coup unfolds. Just print out this page and fill in the questions as you wander around the capital and watch your TV set. (you have a higher chance of completing the questions if you stay at home) Enjoy!

Predicting coup

• When has army issued assurances that the military would not seize power? (times/place)
  

• Any contradictory statements by different members of military/police? (times/place)
  

• Unsupportive middle-ranking army officers reassigned by the army high command? (times/place)
  

• Reports of military movements near Bangkok? (when/who?)
  

• Military explanation for these movements (e.g. scheduled exercise, any evidence for this?)
  
  

Predicting trigger for coup

• Times when PM is out of country?
  

• Times when the auspicious number 9 is common.
  

Exact moments of coup

• Royal Thai Army Special Forces units start to move from Lopburi province to Bangkok (when?)
  

• Any audience with Head of State (what reason given).
  

• Arrival of first units in Bangkok (probably Special Forces).
  

• Army-owned television broadcaster Channel 5 cease scheduled programming (when?)
  

• Military arrests Deputy Prime Minister in charge of national security, Defence Minister, Police Chiefs (when?)
  

• National radio, terrestrial TV, cable TV and some satellite broadcasters taken off air shortly after.
  

• Declaration of a state of emergency (by who? Counter-coup attempt? middle-ranking officer !?)
  

• Head of Public Relations for Army-owned television station Channel 5 makes the first announcements. (what? who?)
  

• Foreign news channels, such as BBC World, CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg Television taken off air?
  

• The Army declared martial law nationwide?
  

• Army ordering all soldiers to report to their barracks and banned troop movements unauthorised by the central command?
  

• Television footage showing troops in armored personnel carriers and on the streets of Bangkok? (what time? Which units?)
  

• Many soldiers and military vehicles wearing strips of yellow cloth ?
  

• Government offices and banks to be closed ? (until when?)
  

• Leader of the coup to meet Head of State (who? when?)
  

• Fighting within army, police? (gunfire? public contradictory addresses?)
  

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[Gaccha]

• Reports of military movements near Bangkok? (when/who?)
  

• Military explanation for these movements (e.g. scheduled exercise, any evidence for this?)
  
  

• Royal Thai Army Special Forces units start to move from Lopburi province to Bangkok (when?)
  

• Arrival of first units in Bangkok (probably Special Forces).
  

• Army-owned television broadcaster Channel 5 cease scheduled programming (when?)
  

Although it looks like I seemed flippant, I am very interested in 'watching' the coup in 'real-time' via the internet. Can any forum members who live near army bases keep us informed.

The First Army, which is located the closest to Bangkok, is most likely to start the coup. It takes around 2 hours for its first units to reach the key installations in Bangkok. We know this by looking at the timeline of the first coup.

So, as a starting question, does anyone live across the road from the Special Forces base in Lopburi?

The Commander of the First Army is clearly pro-coup as he has undermined his boss on record by speaking up the possibility of a coup even without the the support of the Army Commander.

Okay, please call in your geographic positions.

[dave9988]

very good post thank you

[Gaccha]

very good post thank you

The movement of the top elements of the government to Chiang Mai creates a new dynamic. It now makes it impossible for the First Army to initiate the coup as taking only Bangkok is no longer enough.

Presumably the coup will be sometime next week so lets start to call in our positions near military bases.

The Third Army is in charge of Chiang Mai and is headquartered in Phitsanulok. Is anyone living there? If anyone see any vehicles come out of these building then write on the fourm...

In the meantime, you can always watch Thai army TV: http://www.tv5.co.th/newss/military.php