What Is Next For Thailand? Whos in charge now / is it really over

[onlooker]

Govt wont resign

PAD wont leave airport

Police wont intervien for fear of injuring protesters, leading to army to move in.

Army wont make the first move - doesnt want to start a coup.

Only one way out - the courts declare PPP illegal. Govt dissolved. Army then take control of security & give PAD ultimatum to leave airport, PAD do so and go home. New govt installed by army to run country until elections can take place. That has Democrats running the show with smaller parties. (Notice how quiet Dems have been so far.)

In the meantime all PPP politicians banned. Sondhi & co plead guilty to traffic violations or something similar and so cant be accused of getting off scot free.

In 12 months there are new elections, the army, PAD, Dems screw it all up again and a ne version of PPP/TRT takes power. And as for Sondhi . . .he'll be back.

[tijnebijn]

If the red shirts are smart they just walk and occupy the judicial courts ........

[jdinasia]

and this is a coup of any sort ... how? (and needed a thread of its own why?)

[britmaveric]

DEMS are dissolved because of vote buying...

Edited November 30, 2008 by britmaveric

[APMann]

Govt wont resign

PAD wont leave airport

Police wont intervien for fear of injuring protesters, leading to army to move in.

Army wont make the first move - doesnt want to start a coup.

Only one way out - the courts declare PPP illegal. Govt dissolved. Army then take control of security & give PAD ultimatum to leave airport, PAD do so and go home. New govt installed by army to run country until elections can take place. That has Democrats running the show with smaller parties. (Notice how quiet Dems have been so far.)

In the meantime all PPP politicians banned. Sondhi & co plead guilty to traffic violations or something similar and so cant be accused of getting off scot free.

In 12 months there are new elections, the army, PAD, Dems screw it all up again and a ne version of PPP/TRT takes power. And as for Sondhi . . .he'll be back.

Great, succinct and realistic summary - although you must also factor in the threat of even greater disorder tonight (Sunday) as the mobs fill the political vacuum, which may cause something to happen.

Comment deleted as off topic!

Edited November 30, 2008 by APMann

[zorro1]

Agreed this is exactly what will happen short time

[onlooker]

DEMS are dissolved because of vote buying... whistling.gif

Main grounds for dissolving the Dems would be that Abhisit has proved himself to be totally spineless.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

If there is an challenge to the fairness of an election in most democracies, isn't this decided by an independent judiciary? So, how is that a coup?

The issue before the Constitutional Court is whether there was vote buying. If so, then it must determine if the fraud was so pervasive that it affected the fundamental fairness of the election. If it did, the Court must take measures against the offending party, dissolve the government and order new elections.

Maybe some part of the Thai government is still functioning properly?

[APMann]

DEMS are dissolved because of vote buying... whistling.gif

Main grounds for dissolving the Dems would be that Abhisit has proved himself to be totally spineless.

You got that right. I have met him and he is likeable and very bright, and he should know better (he went to Eton and Oxford University - which doesn't mean you are clever, of course, but he has been educated oustide the country and should know how to lead), but in this crisis, he has proven himself to be made of the same spineless incompetent stuff as the rest of them - if not worse. By being such a weak opposition party to Thaksin, the Dems have allowed the political vacuum to come about which has been filled by PAD.

[sassienie]

The Thakinator.

I`LL BE BACK!

[cmsally]

To understand the judicial coup, you need to read here:

ASIA HAND

Judicial coup murmurs in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end.

Full article here: Asia Times-Judicial Coup

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

To understand the judicial coup, you need to read here:

ASIA HAND

Judicial coup murmurs in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end.

Full article here: Asia Times-Judicial Coup

Pure bs and speculation. The article fails to demonstrate how a decision of the Constitutional Court which is within the Court's jurisdiction amounts to a coup. Instead, the article relies on the drivel propagated by the PAD and PPP to claim that the Court could possibly overreach. Yet, the article concedes that the Constitutional Court is conservative. There is absolutely no proof that the Court will step in and try to appoint an interim government. What a load of crap!

Crispin spews out a lot of garbage. Here's where he claimed a U.S. invasion of Mynamar was likely and would be beneficial. Asia Times - The Case for a U.S. Invasion of Mynamar

Edited November 30, 2008 by zaphodbeeblebrox

[old wanderer]

To understand the judicial coup, you need to read here:

ASIA HAND

Judicial coup murmurs in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end.

Full article here: Asia Times-Judicial Coup

Certainly it is the most reasonable outcome. I have written several days ago about this exact Judicial Coup scenario. It is by far the most logical outcome, and allows no one to "win" or loose. All still have a voice in the government.

Certainly some are going to object as they always expected to dominate the entire imbroglio, but that is politics.

I truely hope it works out this way.

[bunnaag]

Govt wont resign

PAD wont leave airport

Police wont intervien for fear of injuring protesters, leading to army to move in.

Army wont make the first move - doesnt want to start a coup.

Only one way out - the courts declare PPP illegal. Govt dissolved. Army then take control of security & give PAD ultimatum to leave airport, PAD do so and go home. New govt installed by army to run country until elections can take place. That has Democrats running the show with smaller parties. (Notice how quiet Dems have been so far.)

In the meantime all PPP politicians banned. Sondhi & co plead guilty to traffic violations or something similar and so cant be accused of getting off scot free.

In 12 months there are new elections, the army, PAD, Dems screw it all up again and a ne version of PPP/TRT takes power. And as for Sondhi . . .he'll be back.

It will happen like that especially if Sondhi is still an unsuccessful businessman.

[Chang_paarp]

To understand the judicial coup, you need to read here:

ASIA HAND

Judicial coup murmurs in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end.

Full article here: Asia Times-Judicial Coup

Interesting article. The current situation should make for interesting viewing for the next week or so. Wish I had a TV to watch.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

To understand the judicial coup, you need to read here:

ASIA HAND

Judicial coup murmurs in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end.

Full article here: Asia Times-Judicial Coup

Pure bs and speculation. The article fails to demonstrate how a decision of the Constitutional Court which is within the Court's jurisdiction amounts to a coup. Instead, the article relies on the drivel propagated by the PAD and PPP to claim that the Court could possibly overreach. Yet, the article concedes that the Constitutional Court is conservative. There is absolutely no proof that the Court will step in and try to appoint an interim government. What a load of crap!

Crispin spews out a lot of garbage. Here's where he claimed a U.S. invasion of Mynamar was likely and would be beneficial. Asia Times - The Case for a U.S. Invasion of Mynamar

So fearmongers: What happened to your so called "judicial coup?"

The Court, as I predicted, acted completely within its jurisdiction. Disband the PPP, bar specific politicians from politics, etc. They didn't even order snap elections, and certainly no talk of an "interim government". Crispin should be ashamed, and so should the Bangkok Post for printing similar crap in yesterday's paper.

Obviously the judiciary is the only properly functioning part of this government.

[britmaveric]

Actually the courts are a joke just like the rest of the govt. They failed to toss all parties - if they were being truly impartial this would have happened. Any rate - all they did was move the time table back, same sh*te will occur down the road again. In the end they solved nothing. PAD needs to be tossed in jail for insurrection.

[girlx]

all they did was move the time table back, same sh*te will occur down the road again

this is why i am surprised the PAD are backing down! they must realize this?

[mittheimp]

all they did was move the time table back, same sh*te will occur down the road again

this is why i am surprised the PAD are backing down! they must realize this?

I think the penny dropped that they were crippling the country. Decision allows a bit of briefing space and the opportunity for some sort of compromise. Don't hold u breath.

[mommysboy]

As I understand it, the PM has been sacked and the ruling parties disbanded, so we don't have a government.

So who is in charge?

Will there be another rehash?

Will there be new elections?

Another draft?

Anybody care to give an overview.

[Jingthing]

As I understand it, the PM has been sacked and the ruling parties disbanded, so we don't have a government.

So who is in charge?

Chaovarat Charnveerakul, the first deputy prime minister, will be caretaker prime minister.

Will there be another rehash?

Expect more trouble if another Thaksin puppet is the new PM. Another Thaksin puppet is very likely. PAD has stated they may CLOSE THE AIRPORT again if the new PM is a Thaksin puppet. Consider this a breather for now.

Will there be new elections?

None planned as yet.

Another draft?

Huh?

Anybody care to give an overview.

It is expected that the three banned parties will reunite under the Puea Thai (For Thais) party, and form a government from surviving members of parliament.

Government chief whip Withaya Buranasiri said a proposal may be made for the House of Representatives to convene a session on Dec 8 to elect a new prime minister.

Bangkok Post

Edited December 2, 2008 by Jingthing

[dave9988]

ผู้สื่อข่าว - หมายความว่าถ้า 8 กับ 9 เขานำเสนอชื่อนายกฯ ที่มาจาก 6 พรรคร่วมฯ ใหม่ พันธมิตรฯ จะชุมนุมอีกครั้ง

นายสนธิ กล่าวว่า แน่นอนครับ

Reporter: Does this mean that if on 8th or 9th that suggest the name of the PM from one of the 6 coalition parties that you will protest again?

Sonthi L stated definitely.

if anyone who was an MP as of yesterday is elected PM or can be traced to Thaskin (99.9% lieklyhood) the protests start up again!

probably not in the airport but who knows...

this thing has to eventually end with a coup silent or military so that they can do away with the current electoral democratic system that keeps electing thaskin... atleast until they can re-educate the rural poor.

[Jingthing]

Here is a clear threat to take the airports AGAIN.

"The next government must sincerely agree to introduce new politics and must not be a puppet regime for Thaksin Shinawatra," said a statement by the PAD.

Otherwise, it continued, the airports may be seized and shut down again.

Bangkok Post

Before people blame for PAD for this, although that is understandable, why not blame Thaksin? Why can't he just leave this be for the best interests of the Thai people, and move on to a beach in the Bahamas or a ranch in the Congo, and let the Thai people have a leader who is NOT a puppet of Thaksin? His current tack of going back into politics, as a convicted fugitive, is not the act of an innocent man who has the best interests of his country in mind. The ex PPP have within their power to select a new PM who is NOT a Thaksin puppet, someone who will reach out to the concerns of PAD and the Thai democrats, for the best interest of their country. So when that does not happen, and it won't, who is to blame exactly?

Edited December 2, 2008 by Jingthing

[rainman]

In Thai:

ผู้สื่อข่าว - หมายความว่าถ้า 8 กับ 9 เขานำเสนอชื่อนายกฯ ที่มาจาก 6 พรรคร่วมฯ ใหม่ พันธมิตรฯ จะชุมนุมอีกครั้ง

นายสนธิ กล่าวว่า แน่นอนครับ

In English:

Reporter: Does this mean that if on 8th or 9th that suggest the name of the PM from one of the 6 coalition parties that you will protest again?

Sonthi L stated definitely.

Not just won't the PAD accept a friend or relative of Thaksin (obviously), but also none of the 6 coalition parties. So to speak, unless the next PM is from the Democrat party or its allies, the PAD will return. Keep your heads down for PAD version 2.0

Source: The Manager

Edited December 2, 2008 by rainman

[londonthai]

they are just plain fanatics from the asylum

[gregb]

The ex PPP have within their power to select a new PM who is NOT a Thaksin puppet, someone who will reach out to the concerns of PAD and the Thai democrats, for the best interest of their country. So when that does not happen, and it won't, who is to blame exactly?

You make the mistake of thinking the PPP represents the interests of the people who elected them. Foolish, foolish man.

While I don't doubt there are one or two of those who accidentally fumbled their way into government on the backs of the PPP last election, anyone in a position of authority in the party is only going to care about themselves, and by extension their fugitive puppet master.

Also don't forget...the PAD has already said they would seize the seaports next. Guess what comes via ship? Food, oil, commodities. You name it. I can see a massive war of attrition coming up. All of it a political proxy war for those who want uncontested control of the government. And we lucky bastards get to starve while our main man Thaksin parties it up in Dubai and Hong Kong.

Chew on that for a while. As unthinkable as it might seem, it wouldn't surprise me for that vision to become reality. Think it was hard to get out of the country without an airport? Try getting out when the country is out of oil. It's a long walk to the border.

[Mossfinn]

atleast until they can re-educate the rural poor.

Hmmm, perhaps systematic sterilisation, while they are at this re-education, hey how about a Final Solution?

Moss

[gregb]

They don't need to reeducate the rural poor. They rural vote is controlled by the village headmasters, who are beholden to the Thaksin regime.

The military tried to break that after the coup by bribing them with lifetime appointments instead of elections, but Thaksin had years to set that network up. You can't knock that down in a few months.

No, the only way to get Thaksin out of the rural villages has nothing to do with education. It will require seizing the government and spending a decade systematically destroying his political machine village headman by village headman.

Anyone who thinks education will change anything is completely missing the point. The rural voters do not vote independently. I've watched my wife's family. Except for a few, they vote as a village block. As long as the headman says that Thaksin is best for the village, most will vote for Thaksin. The money they get isn't even viewed as paying for their vote...just a kind of patronage for helping our man win.

There is no solution to this as long as Thaksin is alive and fighting short of a decade long military takeover or civil war.

[Jingthing]

You make the mistake of thinking the PPP represents the interests of the people who elected them. Foolish, foolish man.

Nope, I know the score already:

So when that does not happen, and it won't, who is to blame exactly?

Edited December 2, 2008 by Jingthing

[JetsetBkk]

...Sonthi L stated definitely...

Unbelievable arrogance.

He should wait until the 5th before assuming he can do any more damage.