What Is Next For Thailand? Whos in charge now / is it really over

[Jingthing]

But also worth remembering - the PAD protest has totally failed. The PPP were dissolved by the courts, not the PAD protest, and the fallout of that protest has damaged the country's economy and shamed Thailand and badly damaged its image around the world. Whoever controls the PAD clearly told them to stop now, before the 5th, but after that it's anyone's guess

That isn't entirely true. The PAD protests wanted to stop the ruling party from changing the rules so that the courts could not have dissolved parties. That wasn't a paranoid fear on PAD's part, that was probably going to happen. You could question their tactics about the airport and the government house (I do) but you also need to recognize they did accomplish something.

Edited December 3, 2008 by Jingthing

[onlooker]

Without PAD the PPP would have changed the constitution.

Of course they would change it and probably still will. PAD hasnt doen anything to stop them from doing this. Any sensible govt would change the constitution back to one nearer the 1997 constitution that is regarded as a landmark for Thailand.

Bear in mind the unelected junta changed the constitution themselves after in 2006/07 with gems such as giving themselves amnesty and immunity from prosecution for carrying out the coup. Are you saying that crap like this doesnt need to be removed?

[jdrake72]

What really happened yesterday is a COUP D ETAT...not a military coup, not a revolution, not a white (self-coup) but a JUDICIARY COUP,.

Thaksin has won 3 elections (election,re-election, early election) and his allies one more election.

Did they buy votes ? Of cours they did ! Just ANY OTHER PARTY in Thailand.

PAD was giving 700 baht to people to go and occupy the airport and destroy the Thai economy.

Who is the worse ?

Thaksin a convicted criminal...yes he is....but much much worse criminals have not been convicted by the PUPPET JUDGES,

Samak and Somchai are not the only puppets, anybody else of these guys are puppets of the same elite who has governed Thailand for decades and use to army to safeguard them.

So they decide who is good and who is not, but they are just the worse.

It is not over....it is just beginning...this is the begin...years and years of deteriorating situation will follow....I am so sorry for that but we need to be realistic, we have a very very deep division in Thailand and this division is much deeper anybody can imagine,,,,,

anything can happen, but it is hard to be optimistic....two groups of people want the cake and they don t care the consecuences ,they are committted to do anything to take it....

Edited December 3, 2008 by jdrake72

[MJP]

If you were in charge of a airline and found out that BKK airports might close at any time and leave your planes stranded would you fly into it?

PAD is going to destroy the country to prevent Toxin from destroying it. Really brillant.

Right. Only the most desperate airlines are going to risk it.

Can't see any major carrier, perhaps Thai, flying there until the authorities are firmly in control.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

Actually the courts are a joke just like the rest of the govt. They failed to toss all parties - if they were being truly impartial this would have happened. Any rate - all they did was move the time table back, same sh*te will occur down the road again. In the end they solved nothing. PAD needs to be tossed in jail for insurrection.

Partiality isn't the issue. (BTW - from what I understand, there was irrefutable videotape surveillance evidence of money bribery) Crispin, the Post, and some posters on this board were predicting a judicial coup, which would be in excess of the Constitutional Court's jurisdiction. It didn't happen. Almost any democracy places the function of determining the fairness of elections in the hands of the judiciary. The judiciary is not empowered to resolve the PPP-PAD rift. It is only empowered to rule on the fairness of the election, and craft a penalty for a violation of the election laws. This is exactly what the Constitutional Court did, and the exercise of its powers under the Constitution, by definition, can't be a coup.

[ozinthailand]

So what is next for Thailand?

So the Yellow shirts blockaded the Airport, and has the backing of the Army. Somchai will stand down, but the RED shirts have a majority in Parliament, so te new party will choose more people with Alliances to Thaksin...

Clearly this is not yet resolved. and could end in civil unrest, more blockades, tourism plummeting, thai people losing jobs ! wow the Land of Smles is becoming the Land of Anger, Unrest and Political Instability.

So the Military may step in overthrow the government in dues course, unless the contstitution is changed the majority alliance to ousted Thaksin will remain....

Can anyone see an end in sight ???

[Gravelrash]

they are just plain fanatics from the asylum

They are not from the asylum, they have an agenda to achieve, and will presumably continue to do so. If you want to understand what PAD are actually about I would suggest you search non-Thailand based publications.

[Ulysses G.]

I can not see the PAD and their rich backers being allowed to take away the vote from the poor, no matter how important they may be, but they may be able to keep Thaksin from ever coming back to power.

The poor Red's love and trust Thaksin, but they don't seem to have any other leaders that inspire the same kind of devotion. If he is out of action, the movement might collapse.

His enemies think that he is "worse than Hitler", his devotees think that he can do no wrong. He is richer than God - he truly does not need more money.

I have to wonder if he might have learned a lesson from all this. Much of what he said about helping the downtrodden seemed to make a lot of sense, but many people feel that he was just using them for his own ends.

The thing is, that if he has reformed, the poor could certainly use someone who is truly on their side.

[rainman]

After the 20 billion lawsuit they received today and possibly facing terrorism charges from the police, I doubt they will return for round 2.

[kingwillly]

In Thai:

ผู้สื่อข่าว - หมายความว่าถ้า 8 กับ 9 เขานำเสนอชื่อนายกฯ ที่มาจาก 6 พรรคร่วมฯ ใหม่ พันธมิตรฯ จะชุมนุมอีกครั้ง

นายสนธิ กล่าวว่า แน่นอนครับ

In English:

Reporter: Does this mean that if on 8th or 9th that suggest the name of the PM from one of the 6 coalition parties that you will protest again?

Sonthi L stated definitely.

Not just won't the PAD accept a friend or relative of Thaksin (obviously), but also none of the 6 coalition parties. So to speak, unless the next PM is from the Democrat party or its allies, the PAD will return. Keep your heads down for PAD version 2.0

Source: The Manager

that's good, they are fighting for a greater cause!

its not easy to stay the path, i hope they do.

[dave9988]

PPP was smart to spread all the talk of judicial coup about so that the court could not risk doing it as the PPP would have just said "See we told you"

It is widely reported throughout the international and local news media

so no it was not fear mongering

also tehre is still talks of the court voiding the entire election and creating a do over

basically though everyone is waiting for a new government to get power so they can rewrite the law books to change the system so ppp cant win anymore

otherwise the result will continually be PPP winning and in power

[dave9988]

Without PAD the PPP would have changed the constitution.

Of course they would change it and probably still will. PAD hasnt doen anything to stop them from doing this. Any sensible govt would change the constitution back to one nearer the 1997 constitution that is regarded as a landmark for Thailand.

Bear in mind the unelected junta changed the constitution themselves after in 2006/07 with gems such as giving themselves amnesty and immunity from prosecution for carrying out the coup. Are you saying that crap like this doesnt need to be removed?

someone please tell me why yuo can fault ppp for wanting to change the constitution when the junta did just that?

everyone involved in the military junta needs to be arrested and charged with treason

[dave9988]

After the 20 billion lawsuit they received today and possibly facing terrorism charges from the police, I doubt they will return for round 2.

Dude the lawsuit will not go anywhere!

[dave9988]

eventually there will be a military or judicial coup

bottom line is that the current democratic electoral system will result in PPP winning.

So either the people need to be 're-educated' or the law books need to change!

[Ulysses G.]

they are just plain fanatics from the asylum

They are not from the asylum, they have an agenda to achieve, and will presumably continue to do so. If you want to understand what PAD are actually about I would suggest you search non-Thailand based publications.

They call the PAD "fascists" if that helps.

[gregb]

I've been reflecting on this for the past few days ever since the PAD upped the ante with the airport closure.

A thought experiment. Assume you are as Gary says, "one of those who got pushed out the feed trough." I like that phrase by the way. I'm going to steal it in the future.

You recognize how dangerous a man Thaksin is, and your apprehension is shared by those held in great esteem by society, who will tacitly support you. You also command the loyalties of a large section of the military in the country. What do you do? First, you try a bloodless coup to tilt the situation in your favor and secondarily to get the judiciary set up as another flank.

Your first, direct attempt to unseat Thaksin fails, but you already suspected that was a possibility. Your second attack from the law goes exactly as planned, but somehow the man simply goes into exile and continues to direct his forces from overseas. So, you're gaining tactical victories, but strategically you aren't making any progress.

What do you do now? How do you proceed? It's clear that you need to change the rules somehow. A direct military coup isn't acceptable to the population at the current time, and that is really the only way to change the rules. But could it ever be? How about if the situation became so unbearable, the economy and social fabric so destroyed by political fighting? Would the people then welcome a second coup just to stop the pain, despite the moral hazzards?

And if so, how far would you need to push? Clearly just shutting down the airport for a few days wouldn't be enough. You'd need to seriously punish society until the point they welcomed military control for the order that it restored. And you'd need the military to stay out of the picture until the situation was ripe. Does this mean prolonged sieges? A stranglehold on commerce? Fuel shortages?

Taking the airport just didn't seem a smart move for the PAD. Why would they be so aggressive and risk the support of their base? It seemed like there were other options at the time, and they overstepped the bounds of respectability. But a picture is starting to form in my mind. One that isn't necessarily pretty. Yes, the PAD appears to be losing support, but maybe the PAD is just sacrificing itself for the greater cause. The PAD itself is irrelevant after all. They're just a cog.

As Thaksin has promised, the next coup will be bloody. How hungry does the electorate have to be before that becomes acceptable? I hope I'm being overly pessimistic, but I can see a reason someone would want to make this battle much, much worse. I think we may be just at the beginning of something that has been planned to escalate. If what we just saw was "Hiroshima", the PAD's "Nagasaki" may not be something pleasant for any of us.

I really hope I'm crazy. Does give a new meaning though to the OP's question of "who's in charge?" The answer might turn out to be unexpected.

[MiG16]

ive merged a few threads into this one, and adjusted the title a bit.

can I ask people to continue discussions here, and please do not start new threads talking about the same thing under different thread title?

many thanks for your cooperation

[Nostraforce]

Okay so to summarize some facts in this thread:

- Voting habits in northern villages differ from place to place; some have a influential village head with a clear opinion, in other villages individual motivation is more important

- In the rural north villages are also PAD supporters; what does this tell us? Clearly the PAD <> PPP polarity is too simplistic.

The military tried to break that after the coup by bribing them with lifetime appointments instead of elections, but Thaksin had years to set that network up

-Thaksin has a 'network' to influence village heads. Can the poster clarify how this works?

Edited December 3, 2008 by Nostraforce

[shochu]

the urgency with which this past event occurred had to do with the push to change the constitution which in effect would have been the catalyst for an eventual return of a certain square one.

this square one is backed by some powerful western influence and these forces want him in power, hence much of these friendly media are slanted in such a way.

there are times when a democracy is not beneficial, particularly when a country is maturing, in particular, when the majority of the populace is what we can term not educated beyond the level of developed. as an example, most of you probably do not know that some of the most developed countries in the world are really not democracies, although most believe them to be, such as japan, and another i will not name but is the cause of the financial crisis. they are on the surface for all intense purposes masquerading as democracies, but are really .... well i won't say!

the common misnomer that the poorer regions are not able to vote that is often quoted is not really adequately represented. more accurate is, they are not voting in the best interests of a country, but more in their own interests (try short term gains). however much you may dislike the bangkok clan, they are really the driving force behind much of the development of the the country as a major tourist destination and manufacturing hub. and they have also benefited the most. it is no secret or elusive theory why they are considered elitist - perhaps misrepresented by those that have not benefited as much - but then you get what you put into it. they worked for it thus they have earned it.

a country like LOS needs a strong hand to guide it. and they have a number of wealthy families, like every country in the world without exception, that to a large extent control the ins and outs. (some countries are not ready for full democracy. just look around for examples in everyday life whereby people do not obey the simplest of laws or will readily take advantage of a situation if they believe they will get away with it, or if they think no one is watching). how benevolent they are to change and also how much a working class becomes educated (this being key) will determine how much more equality will prevail over time. is it a wonder that during times of upheaval, the educated class are hunted down and eliminated. i will not get into the details of examples as i do not have the time, but clear examples are available by studying the two example countries i give above.

there is small game ongoing whereby the stakes are up for grabs, as they are in other parts of the world at present. we have entered interesting times as i have repeated said. the one worry i have, is that these small conflicts will lead to a much larger conflict to hide the truth of the damage.

we are all pawns in this game - so either act accordingly or just try to enjoy what you have!

[jdinasia]

Actually the courts are a joke just like the rest of the govt. They failed to toss all parties - if they were being truly impartial this would have happened. Any rate - all they did was move the time table back, same sh*te will occur down the road again. In the end they solved nothing. PAD needs to be tossed in jail for insurrection.

No Brit --

You are getting the basic elements wrong. The courts cannot ban a party that is not forwarded to it for adjudication. Though many parties have had individuals use different forms of vote fraud only the ones that the executives are a part of that fraud go before the courts. Note that there was actual solid evidence presented to the EC on all three parties directly implicating the bosses. The EC then forwarded their recommendations to the court.

Insurrection? If you think that is what they did then please find someone to present those charges to the appropriate people and let the courts decide. They seem to do a fair job in sticking to the letter of the law.

As far as cmsally's case for a judicial coup; well that certainly didn't happen. I think the Constitution Ct could still take action to accomplish something similar though.

[Nostraforce]

they are not voting in the best interests of a country, but more in their own interests (try short term gains)

this is a funny argument, you should see how most people here in the Netherlands, and also in the USA with all it's tax-cut presidents are voting. Educated or non-educated, this is not important. Everywhere in thailand there is access to print media, radio, tv and internet. Also in the small villages, and people who don't have an informed opinion ask family, friends or local guru's.

Surely western-style democracies are not the norm in Asia. Makes sense, as the cherished asian value of 'harmony' conflicts with the institutional disharmony inherent in the western democratic model. It's the decennia of capitalist 'aid' dollars and No.1 American ally in SE Asia status that militarised Thai politics to this day and comitted Thailand to an american-style democracy.

first time i came to Bangkok i was amazed by things like the head of the police office who also runs the nightclub in the same street. Such a thing would be a big scandal here in NL.

[girlx]

this article states that this is basically an intermission and the trouble is not over yet: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081203/ap_on_...olitical_unrest