Pad Warns Govt Of Violence On Coup Anniversary Day

[caf]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

I suppose you mean the Schlieffen-Plan, so called after it's creator, Count Alfred von Schlieffen or, in good German: Generalfeldmarschall Alfred Graf von Schlieffen.

I must say you have quite an imagination, comparing the Schlieffen-Plan, created over a period between 1892 and 1905 and implemented in a much softer version in 1914 when WWI* started, with a "Thaksin-plan" in 2009, if there is any such plan.

Pure speculation and remarkable indeed and I wonder where you find/found any evidence for such a Thaksin-Plan, intending to avoid fighting a two fronts war ?

Where and who are the fronts? ...the present government and the PAD....? And which one is he intending to fight first ?

Steven Spielberg couldn't even have dreamed about it but maybe he is secretly working on his last Indian Jones movie with Thaksin starring as Indiana ?

Bit pedantic today, are'nt we? The poster missed out an "i" in Schlieffen, You missed out the "a" in Indiana

Which is the more serious in your book? An i or an a

On a more serious note: how on earth can you compare WWI, when the Schlieffen-Plan was implemented, with the present situation in Thailand...?

How on earth can you possibly compare a plan in such a horrible war with 70 million (!) military and 15 million killed people, with the political situation in Thailand ?

Were is the present France and Russia in that era but now situated in Thailand ?

Beyond me and really, the absurd theories on this forum never stop amazing me.

LaoPo

[Ricardo]

Interesting that, despite this PAD man's belief that there will be a concerted attempt to take a peaceful-demonstration down the route of violence, there are no calls yet for the PAD to rally and resist it. That would signal an increased potential for violence. He must believe that the government are secure enough to resist any attempted-coup.

Wonder what Thaksin believes, will he again call for civil-war at any cost, to restore his fortunes (political and financial) or will he call upon his supporters to be peaceful in their display of outrage, against a 3-year-old coup which has already been succeeded by a return to elections and two governments of their own persuasion.

Let's hope that this all stays peaceful, and that the 'true democrats' don't believe in coups, as part of their view of democracy !

[LaoPo]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

I suppose you mean the Schlieffen-Plan, so called after it's creator, Count Alfred von Schlieffen or, in good German: Generalfeldmarschall Alfred Graf von Schlieffen.

I must say you have quite an imagination, comparing the Schlieffen-Plan, created over a period between 1892 and 1905 and implemented in a much softer version in 1914 when WWI* started, with a "Thaksin-plan" in 2009, if there is any such plan.

Pure speculation and remarkable indeed and I wonder where you find/found any evidence for such a Thaksin-Plan, intending to avoid fighting a two fronts war ?

Where and who are the fronts? ...the present government and the PAD....? And which one is he intending to fight first ?

Steven Spielberg couldn't even have dreamed about it but maybe he is secretly working on his last Indian Jones movie with Thaksin starring as Indiana ?

On a more serious note: how on earth can you compare WWI, when the Schlieffen-Plan was implemented, with the present situation in Thailand...?

How on earth can you possibly compare a plan in such a horrible war with 70 million (!) military and 15 million killed people, with the political situation in Thailand ?

Were is the present France and Russia in that era but now situated in Thailand ?

Beyond me and really, the absurd theories on this forum never stop amazing me.

LaoPo

MAN OVERBOARD!!!

FYI the reference is not literal so here's a lifejacket. Grab hold of the lifeline so we can pull you back on deck. I'd also be interested to find out whether you actually fell overboard or threw yourself over the side.

Rather, the post has to do with the previous post that presented a possible, if not likely, Sept 19 scenario in which all sides in Thailand are mindlessly arranged either in alliances or in opposition, recklessly at the brink, at which point some single crackling event can loose the dogs of a terrible conflict which produces disastrous results on a scale perhaps unforseen.

It's quite a leap and the work of a hyperactive imagination to try to apply the specific details of the Great European War, to the point of naming countries, to my general and broad allusion to a similar potentially mad situation in the Thailand of the present.

Still, your overdone post can elucidate on the complexities of the present situation in Thailand that my post references so thanks.

WHY were you bringing the Schlieffen-Plan into the discussion in the first place, claiming it would be the equivalent of the Thaksin plan ? THAT's what you said! and, did you really believe members here would know what it was, that old plan of more than 100 years ago ?

And, Mr. Publicus, if you want to bring a certain parallel (IF there is any) into the discussion you could be so kind to provide a link for our fellow members who don't have a clue WHAT that Schlieffen-Plan was and stood for.

Now you blame me for debating YOUR point by screaming MAN OVERBOARD, trying to withdraw the attention from the good Publicus, and telling me that my post is overdone ?

You didn't even answer my questions where you find/found evidence that there is such a (extremely complicated) "Schlieffen"-plan by Thaksin (and his allies); you wrote it was not literally meant but, Mr. Publicus there's NO comparison to be made to the situation in Europe, 100+ years ago and nowadays Thailand.

YOU wrote: "Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan."

WHY you mentioned a more than 100 year old tactical and complicated MILITARY German war manoeuvre, in comparison with the present Thai situation is the RIDDLE OF THE MONTH since the conspiracies of coups, counter-coups and "likely" Sept. 19 scenarios is really laughable and have nothing to do with a military operation plan from Germany.

What a nonsense and absurd!

LaoPo

[animatic]

The coup was then, this is now; try saying a 3 years past coup....

We have; a constitution, and an elected parliament installed for some time now.

And an opposition party that can't own up to it's predecessors breaking the law congenitally.

There is no "3 year old coup", the coup is a past historical anomaly in the Thai history.

PAD would not logically come out to 'prevent' a riot, or oppose the reds in the streets.

They aren't an army or even a militia. They are aspiring to be a political party now,

and unlike PTP they don't seem to want to maintain any street militia presence.

[LaoPo]

Bit pedantic today, are'nt we? The poster missed out an "i" in Schlieffen, You missed out the "a" in Indiana

Which is the more serious in your book? An i or an a

Thank you for correcting my error Caf! Much appreciated!

BTW: is "are'nt" not aren't ?

Pedantic LaoPo

[caf]

Bit pedantic today, are'nt we? The poster missed out an "i" in Schlieffen, You missed out the "a" in Indiana

Which is the more serious in your book? An i or an a

Thank you for correcting my error Caf! Much appreciated!

BTW: is "are'nt" not aren't ?

Pedantic LaoPo

Touche

Mea culpa mea culpa mea maxima culpa

[hammered]

Interesting that, despite this PAD man's belief that there will be a concerted attempt to take a peaceful-demonstration down the route of violence, there are no calls yet for the PAD to rally and resist it. That would signal an increased potential for violence. He must believe that the government are secure enough to resist any attempted-coup.

Wonder what Thaksin believes, will he again call for civil-war at any cost, to restore his fortunes (political and financial) or will he call upon his supporters to be peaceful in their display of outrage, against a 3-year-old coup which has already been succeeded by a return to elections and two governments of their own persuasion.

Let's hope that this all stays peaceful, and that the 'true democrats' don't believe in coups, as part of their view of democracy !

The current round is between government and reds/PTP with the military-blue 3rd force involved too. The PAD are sitting quietly on the sidelines and wont want to be dragged into this now. Whatever happens on Sept 19 they will lilely not get involved or at least not until the outcome is clear. There thing will be over ammendments if government continues as per normal. If there is a coup they will oppose it imho. Yellows sit and watch for now.

[Thailand]

Perhaps PAD are simply saying that we will infiltrate fifth columnists in to the reds protest march to ensure there is violence- would not put that past them based on past performance.

[Ricardo]

Perhaps PAD are simply saying that we will infiltrate fifth columnists in to the reds protest march to ensure there is violence- would not put that past them based on past performance.

That's an interesting and original idea ! Do you have any evidence, I mean absolutely anything at all, for making such an outrageous claim ? Thought not !

[Publicus]

The Guns of August in September.

Different place and a different century but too many similarities even if we're looking at the particulars of Thai internalities.

Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan.

Either way once again the lights go out all over.

I suppose you mean the Schlieffen-Plan, so called after it's creator, Count Alfred von Schlieffen or, in good German: Generalfeldmarschall Alfred Graf von Schlieffen.

I must say you have quite an imagination, comparing the Schlieffen-Plan, created over a period between 1892 and 1905 and implemented in a much softer version in 1914 when WWI* started, with a "Thaksin-plan" in 2009, if there is any such plan.

Pure speculation and remarkable indeed and I wonder where you find/found any evidence for such a Thaksin-Plan, intending to avoid fighting a two fronts war ?

Where and who are the fronts? ...the present government and the PAD....? And which one is he intending to fight first ?

Steven Spielberg couldn't even have dreamed about it but maybe he is secretly working on his last Indian Jones movie with Thaksin starring as Indiana ?

On a more serious note: how on earth can you compare WWI, when the Schlieffen-Plan was implemented, with the present situation in Thailand...?

How on earth can you possibly compare a plan in such a horrible war with 70 million (!) military and 15 million killed people, with the political situation in Thailand ?

Were is the present France and Russia in that era but now situated in Thailand ?

Beyond me and really, the absurd theories on this forum never stop amazing me.

LaoPo

MAN OVERBOARD!!!

FYI the reference is not literal so here's a lifejacket. Grab hold of the lifeline so we can pull you back on deck. I'd also be interested to find out whether you actually fell overboard or threw yourself over the side.

Rather, the post has to do with the previous post that presented a possible, if not likely, Sept 19 scenario in which all sides in Thailand are mindlessly arranged either in alliances or in opposition, recklessly at the brink, at which point some single crackling event can loose the dogs of a terrible conflict which produces disastrous results on a scale perhaps unforseen.

It's quite a leap and the work of a hyperactive imagination to try to apply the specific details of the Great European War, to the point of naming countries, to my general and broad allusion to a similar potentially mad situation in the Thailand of the present.

Still, your overdone post can elucidate on the complexities of the present situation in Thailand that my post references so thanks.

WHY were you bringing the Schlieffen-Plan into the discussion in the first place, claiming it would be the equivalent of the Thaksin plan ? THAT's what you said! and, did you really believe members here would know what it was, that old plan of more than 100 years ago ?

And, Mr. Publicus, if you want to bring a certain parallel (IF there is any) into the discussion you could be so kind to provide a link for our fellow members who don't have a clue WHAT that Schlieffen-Plan was and stood for.

Now you blame me for debating YOUR point by screaming MAN OVERBOARD, trying to withdraw the attention from the good Publicus, and telling me that my post is overdone ?

You didn't even answer my questions where you find/found evidence that there is such a (extremely complicated) "Schlieffen"-plan by Thaksin (and his allies); you wrote it was not literally meant but, Mr. Publicus there's NO comparison to be made to the situation in Europe, 100+ years ago and nowadays Thailand.

YOU wrote: "Unfortunately for all back then the Germans had the Shleffen Plan, the equavelent of which here would be the Thaksin Plan."

WHY you mentioned a more than 100 year old tactical and complicated MILITARY German war manoeuvre, in comparison with the present Thai situation is the RIDDLE OF THE MONTH since the conspiracies of coups, counter-coups and "likely" Sept. 19 scenarios is really laughable and have nothing to do with a military operation plan from Germany.

What a nonsense and absurd!

LaoPo

The Guns of August. I know you know "Guns" and I know you know "August". So let's try it again: "The Guns of August."

It's a non-fiction book. That's b-o-o-k.

Non-fiction means it's about real life--real people, places, things, events. (Try hard, you can do it.)

In this instance it focuses on history. That's h-i-s-t-o-r-y.

Author: Barbara Tuchman. (Nevermind.)

It's about the complex and absurd rows of dominoes that by happenstance and human folly were set in motion to produce the Great War, aka the Great European War, aka World War I, aka The First World War. (Good luck.)

As pointed out by a previous poster, something like that insane process could occur in Thailand on Sept 19th and produce bad results to Thailand.

Also, Schliefen was a bad guy and Thaksin is a bad guy.

Each had a plan that turned out to be disastrously stupid.

That's s-t-u-p-i-d.

More good luck to you and cheers.

[WAERTH]

Also, Schliefen was a bad guy and Thaksin is a bad guy.

Each had a plan that turned out to be disastrously stupid.

That's s-t-u-p-i-d.

More good luck to you and cheers.

Ermmm may I come in on the defense of Alfred Graf von Schlieffen. He was not a bad person. He just happened to have drawn up a plan to try and defeat the French when he was the Chief of the German Imperial General Staff. After von Shlieffen died it was Helmuth von Moltke the Younger whom redrew the plan and actually put it into action in the First World War.

To say that Graf von Schlieffen was a bad guy simply because he served in the German Imperial General Staff is like saying someone is bad because they share the last name with another bad person. You see von Schlieffen only devised the plan on paper, like 1000's of plans have been devised on paper. Like millions of bullets have been produced in the world.

Now whom is the bad person? The one developing the tools (plans/bullets) or the ones actually using those tools!

This history lesson was provided free of charge.

Waerth

[Publicus]

Are you actually as dismissive as you seem to be of it "hardly being an earth shattering prediction" that the reds will "ooohhh use violence" Sept 19th?

It is reasonable and probable that Thaksin very well could be deluded that his stars are in alignment for this date and occasion. Thaksin's deranged verson of Karma.

Reasonable and probable? It is a certainty if the numbers of reds are sufficient. Did they get a reading from Mystic Meg or something? I don't understand why this is a shock to anyone. They were about to march 2 weeks ago but the ISA put that to bed. Now it is the anniversary, and Abhisit is out of the country. Whether they can muster the numbers is the issue.

If the reds get together in Bangkok it will be a certainty that violence will happen. Be it with or without provocation, yellow, blue involvement, just the sheer proximity of that mass of people with armed authorities means that it will happen. Furthermore, don't you realise the political capital that can be gained or lost from all sides by turning this situation into mayhem.

Abhist must appear strong, the reds must make a point, the army can't back down, the police don't want to get involved. All it will take is someone to crack a big fart and it will go off. I would imagine that the lines of police/army will be there and someone will throw one stone and away it goes.

Now whether it entails something akin to the so called "non-violent" yellows who picked up the odd person and beat the crap out of them, threw the odd grenade in so called self defence, ran over the odd copper whilst protecting their fortress or it entails the "violent" version of the reds over Songkran who burnt buses and caused chaos whilst running from the army supposedly firing blanks in the air, no one knows.

I for one would love them to make a peaceful sit in at a new undiscovered place of protest. Government house, Don Muang, Survanabhumi, it's all so last year.

Well stated.

Especially the statements:

"with or without provocation"

and "just the sheer proximity of that mass of people with armed authorities means that it will happen."

Then "All it will take is someone to crack a big fart and it will go off."

Also: "I would imagine that the lines of police/army will be there and someone will throw a stone and away it goes."

These and other statements in the above post bring to mind Barbara Tuchman's excellent and hailed book "The Guns of August" which includes a brilliant account of how the supposedly intelligent European powers stumbled stupidly into World War I (which until the advent of another huge war in Europe that began in 1939 had been known in Europe as the Great War and in the US as the Great European War).

Thailand has been stumbling along for some years now but the stumbling seems only to intensify and become both worse and more dangerous.

[Thailand]

Perhaps PAD are simply saying that we will infiltrate fifth columnists in to the reds protest march to ensure there is violence- would not put that past them based on past performance.

That's an interesting and original idea ! Do you have any evidence, I mean absolutely anything at all, for making such an outrageous claim ? Thought not !

Did I make such a claim or was it simply an observation of something that could happen? - On the basis of your reply I assume you have evidence to the contrary- Thought not.

[Publicus]

Also, Schliefen was a bad guy and Thaksin is a bad guy.

Each had a plan that turned out to be disastrously stupid.

That's s-t-u-p-i-d.

More good luck to you and cheers.

Ermmm may I come in on the defense of Alfred Graf von Schlieffen. He was not a bad person. He just happened to have drawn up a plan to try and defeat the French when he was the Chief of the German Imperial General Staff. After von Shlieffen died it was Helmuth von Moltke the Younger whom redrew the plan and actually put it into action in the First World War.

To say that Graf von Schlieffen was a bad guy simply because he served in the German Imperial General Staff is like saying someone is bad because they share the last name with another bad person. You see von Schlieffen only devised the plan on paper, like 1000's of plans have been devised on paper. Like millions of bullets have been produced in the world.

Now whom is the bad person? The one developing the tools (plans/bullets) or the ones actually using those tools!

This history lesson was provided free of charge.

Waerth

Your charge is that which the market will bear.

Edited September 14, 2009 by Publicus

[animatic]

Anything written by Barbara Tuchman, is likely a topshelf read and historically accurate.

That is not one I have read,, but it goes on the list. Some many words so little time.

I suppose autoring a plan of agression vs another country as nothing but a working way to do it,

is nothing more than school work or preparedness, but puting it into actions is not good.

In ANY CASE, this is about PAD and not A's or I's

and about the likelihood of violence here and now for the localized reasons.

[Ricardo]

Perhaps PAD are simply saying that we will infiltrate fifth columnists in to the reds protest march to ensure there is violence- would not put that past them based on past performance.

That's an interesting and original idea ! Do you have any evidence, I mean absolutely anything at all, for making such an outrageous claim ? Thought not !

Did I make such a claim or was it simply an observation of something that could happen? - On the basis of your reply I assume you have evidence to the contrary- Thought not.

Yes, you did make such a claim, "based on past performance" suggests that the PAD have previously done something like that.

[LaoPo]

Bit pedantic today, are'nt we? The poster missed out an "i" in Schlieffen, You missed out the "a" in Indiana

Which is the more serious in your book? An i or an a

Thank you for correcting my error Caf! Much appreciated!

BTW: is "are'nt" not aren't ?

Pedantic LaoPo

..friends ?

LaoPo

[frodo]

BLACK Suvarnabhumi airport day, back in November 2008, is a HUGE contributing factor in the current unrest. so, NO you can NOT brush away this act of TERRORISM by the YELLOW shirts as irrelevant.

Glad we agree on something.

[mc2]

BLACK Suvarnabhumi airport day, back in November 2008, is a HUGE contributing factor in the current unrest. so, NO you can NOT brush away this act of TERRORISM by the YELLOW shirts as irrelevant.

Glad we agree on something.

quote in context next time, ring bearer.

[Jingthing]

I agree the airport takeover is part of the story, part of the history. However, whenever you mention that, please remember to be sure to mention the outrageous abuses and corruption by criminal fugitive Thaksin that led up to and explain the reasons for that event.

[mc2]

I agree the airport takeover is part of the story, part of the history. However, whenever you mention that, please remember to be sure to mention the outrageous abuses and corruption by criminal fugitive Thaksin that led up to and explain the reasons for that event.

"the reasons for that event" ......

the reasons for the yellow shirt act of terrorism on BLACK Suvarnabhumi was because the yellow shirts could not accept a democratically elected government.

[animatic]

BLACK Suvarnabhumi airport day, back in November 2008, is a HUGE contributing factor in the current unrest. so, NO you can NOT brush away this act of TERRORISM by the YELLOW shirts as irrelevant.

Propaganda 101 again. Try to matriculate soon.

Prop. 102 word games for psychological pointsmanship.

Still trying to turn Black Songkran into Black Airport. Stand it on it's head.

So very Orwellian of you. Double speak lives!

The airport has little to do with this current mess.

The PPP election fraud verdicts had MUCH more to do with it.

They dueling-denouements just happened to coincide.

[Thai at Heart]

I agree the airport takeover is part of the story, part of the history. However, whenever you mention that, please remember to be sure to mention the outrageous abuses and corruption by criminal fugitive Thaksin that led up to and explain the reasons for that event.

Maybe we should provide a potted history of modern Thailand along with every statement. Christ, if we were to juxtapose every statement with every issue that effected it, this would be one looooooooooooooooooooooong chat to converse in.

A bit like sitting down and reading "War and Peace" every day over and over again. Rather apt in fact

Part of the history? One year ago isn't along time. We are still waiting to find out where the Saudi jewels went and that was in 1990.

Where shall we start? Are you sitting comfortably, now I'll begin

Once upon a time, in a place, far far away, one man was born in ............................

Edited September 14, 2009 by Thai at Heart

[Mario2008]

I flame and a few responses to it have been deleted. Keep it civil or the post will be deleted and the meber warned.

Sorry for the replies being deleted. With flames the best thing is to report it.

[Jingthing]

I agree the airport takeover is part of the story, part of the history. However, whenever you mention that, please remember to be sure to mention the outrageous abuses and corruption by criminal fugitive Thaksin that led up to and explain the reasons for that event.

"the reasons for that event" ......

the reasons for the yellow shirt act of terrorism on BLACK Suvarnabhumi was because the yellow shirts could not accept a democratically elected government.

They couldn't accept a democratically (less than really) elected DICTATOR. Was the coup a good thing? No. Was Thaksin a good thing? No. A bunch of bad choices.

Edited September 14, 2009 by Jingthing

[animatic]

What is a nation's quota for bad decisions, before it ceases to exist for logical reasons?

[EffectiveAnger]

I agree the airport takeover is part of the story, part of the history. However, whenever you mention that, please remember to be sure to mention the outrageous abuses and corruption by criminal fugitive Thaksin that led up to and explain the reasons for that event.

"the reasons for that event" ......

the reasons for the yellow shirt act of terrorism on BLACK Suvarnabhumi was because the yellow shirts could not accept a democratically elected government.

That was a joke, right? Like Somchai was democratically elected? Amongst other things, the PAD went there to stop Somchai from landing in Bangkok. He was flying in from an overseas trip. The PAD was successful as the plane had to land elsewhere. They picked Chaing Mai where I believe he stays to this day.

Could the UDD Reds be planning a copycat maneuver of what the PAD did? We shall see! There sure are a lot of scores to settle.

[animatic]

If Suvaravhumi means golden land,

how can it be a black golden land?

Black Gold; is that oil?

Your attempt to parallel black Songkran with the airport just doesn't fly,

because the wording is so illogical.

Is this your own idea of some official thing to always tie PAD to RED riots?

[Yoshitaka]

Pad Warns Govt Of Violence On Coup Anniversary Day

or is it

Pad Warns Govt Of PAD Violence On Coup Anniversary Day in Si-SaKet