Do You Fear Another Tsunami In Phuket?

[maipenrai2010]

I believe it can happen again. One powerful earthquake is all it takes. Do you feel it could happen in the same places again? Does this affect your decision making?

[SeanMoran]

Five on the Richter scale is apparently on the gentle side, for what little I know of these things, so I voted undecided because I hope that this one was not a warning of more to come. Let's hope that people are ready to move quickly of there's another wave on the way. Hopefully not.

[WOOHOO]

Even though the world is changing dramatically at present, it is still highly unlikely that anything of that magnitude will happen again for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. I think the last one was the biggest event of its kind for something like 40 thousand years. And when it does happen again on a smaller scale, the amount of knowledge gained from the last one will save most of the lives that were lost that time. I don't think anybody will be collecting fish, next time the sea suddenly dissapears!

[keestha]

Researching layers of sand deep underneath the ground in Phangnga and Ranong, scientists concluded that 600 years ago a similar event took place. So it makes more sense to worry about traffic accidents, diseases and human violence.

And Woohoo is right: in 2004 nobody was prepared, but now there is a warning system in place and everybody is aware of the remote possibility, which will save a lot of, if not all lives.

[markg]

Could there be another one in our lifetime ? Yes of course.

Do i 'fear' one ? Nope.

If i see the tide going out at a fast rate at any of the beaches, i will be heading for the high-ground !

[LivinginKata]

Could there be another one in our lifetime ? Yes of course.

Do i 'fear' one ? Nope.

If i see the tide going out at a fast rate at any of the beaches, i will be heading for the high-ground !

I could not have said it better ...

[stevenl]

Could happen here, could happen anywhere.

[ozymandious]

I think it's a once in a life time event, like Krakatoa blowing it's top (1883).

[NamKangMan]

I think it's a once in a life time event, like Krakatoa blowing it's top (1883).

The survey was worded badly. A better survey would have had 2 questions.

1) Do you think another tsunami is possible in Phuket?

2) Do you fear it?

[Ping]

Good point- I agree with the ice man.

[JiveTalker]

No.

[paulchiangmai]

Could happen here, could happen anywhere.

We don't get many in Chiang Mai.

[Bedrockguesthouse]

South-East Asia is due for a period of major earthquakes , similar to the one in 2004 off the west coast of Sumatra that caused the Boxing Day tsunami . Scientists warn that it is highly likely that at least one such earthquake will hit the region within the lifetime of the children living there today. They base their prediction on previous earthquake evidence going back 700 years.

The 2004 tsunami was one of the most devastating natural disasters of modern times, killing more than 225,000 people in 11 countries, and was caused by an earthquake under the seabed that produced waves up to 100ft high which lashed coastlines in the Indian Ocean as far apart as Sri Lanka and Thailand.

Such undersea earthquakes raise coral reefs above sea level, which mark this vertical shift by growing outwards rather than upwards. It is this sudden change in the pattern of coral growth that has allowed the scientists to analyse previous earthquakes in the eastern Indian Ocean extending over many centuries.

google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);Kerry Sieh of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, and colleagues in Indonesia and Singapore analysed the coral growth rings of the region and found a of multiple earthquakes had struck the region about every 200 years for the past 700 years.

The first occurred in the 1300s, the second took place in the late 1500s and the third occurred from 1797 to 1833. They therefore believe that the latest earthquakes, including the one in September 2007, mark the beginning of another active period that could extend into the coming decades.

The study, published in the journal Science, looked at ancient corals around the Mentawai islands off Sumatra, along a 434-milefault line called the Sundra megathrust. The September 2007 earthquake was the first in a series of large failures in the fault line, and the December 2004 quake was a rupture in the same fault further to the west.

Large sections of the fault in this eastern flank of the Indian Ocean have failed in the past eight years in an extraordinary sequence of powerful earthquakes, the scientists said.

"The largest of these failures of the Sundra megathrust, in 2004, caused the most devastating tsunami the world has seen in many generations. One question of great humanitarian and scientific importance is which remaining unruptured sections of the megathrust will fail next," they said.

The Mentawai part of the fault had been dormant since the earthquakes of 1797 and 1833, until it ruptured in the 2007 earthquake. The scientists believe this is the start of another active period that is likely to last for several decades.

"Over the past 700 years, three episodes of emergence lasted variously from a few decades to a little over a century. This past variability precludes a precise empirical forecast of the next great earthquake and tsunami," the scientists said.

[paulfromphuket]

2012 is almost upon us so wo knows, polar inversion/ maybe major sesmic movment, who knows, i am happy to live 3 kms from a beach and if the shit hits the fan again well i'll take my chances.

I would be more worried about the 2nd ice age in the northern hemishepe when the gulf stream shifts. property prices in thailand would see a lift.

[toptuan]

Could there be another one in our lifetime ? Yes of course.

Do i 'fear' one ? Nope.

If i see the tide going out at a fast rate at any of the beaches, i will be heading for the high-ground !

That's assuming it all happens in the day time, and you're not fast alseep in your little beach-side bungalow at 3 a.m. That's what seems to still scare a lot of Thai friends whom I've invited for a beach trip since 2004.

[jlaaway]

Could there be another one in our lifetime ? Yes of course.

Do i 'fear' one ? Nope.

If i see the tide going out at a fast rate at any of the beaches, i will be heading for the high-ground !

That's assuming it all happens in the day time, and you're not fast alseep in your little beach-side bungalow at 3 a.m. That's what seems to still scare a lot of Thai friends whom I've invited for a beach trip since 2004.

Me worried??? No, not really. Primarily cuz I don't live in Phuket, but I have visited a couple of times. I guess if another one happens when I am there (and I die), then it was just my time.

[starkey_rich]

No because part of the garden of the house I live in is the evacuation point for the Rawai area.

A couple of years ago there was a false alarm.The first I knew about it was when about 100 building workers from the Vijett resort next door arrived in my garden.

[golfbum]

In view of the lack of information sent out by the "authorities" during last week's tsunami warning, I thought your readers might like to learn of a reliable, independent, tsunami alarm system which sends SMS messages directly to subscribers' mobile phones.

As a long time Kamala resident, I have subscribed to this system since the 2004 tsunami, and am completely satisfied with the information I receive.

For example, last Wednesday 7 April at around 5.35am, I received 3 tsunami alert SMS messages from the Tsunami-Alarm website just 20 minutes after the quake.

I then logged onto the USGS website where I evaluated the danger myself, and was able to estimate there was no real threat of a significant tsunami in Phuket. I was able to confirm this by following Twitter immediately after receiving the alerts (search for "tsunami") where I was able to see when an "all-clear" message was posted at around 6:15am, long before the "authorities" had informed the public of any threat.

I hope this information helps give Phuket's residents and visitors peace-of-mind, in case of any future tsunami warnings.

[WOOHOO]

That sounds like a great service, especially if it's reliable as you say it is. But for me, to consider something like that I would have to live in Indonesia or somewhere much more prone to problems. The 2004 event was the biggest of it's kind for something like tens of thousands of years. The chances of it happening again are slim to non existent, certainly in my life time, and we are so more knowledgeable now, with just 20 minutes notice everybody could get themselves to safety. It was the not understanding last time that kept everybody to close.

It would only take me being woken up by a false alarm once or twice for me to say enough is enough. Perhaps if I stayed on Phi Phi for any length of time again, I was there for 3 months once, then I would consider it, because there you really are at the mercy of the sea, but not in Phuket. Thanks for the info though, may help somebody sleep better.

[stevenl]

In view of the lack of information sent out by the "authorities" during last week's tsunami warning, I thought your readers might like to learn of a reliable, independent, tsunami alarm system which sends SMS messages directly to subscribers' mobile phones.

As a long time Kamala resident, I have subscribed to this system since the 2004 tsunami, and am completely satisfied with the information I receive.

For example, last Wednesday 7 April at around 5.35am, I received 3 tsunami alert SMS messages from the Tsunami-Alarm website just 20 minutes after the quake.

I then logged onto the USGS website where I evaluated the danger myself, and was able to estimate there was no real threat of a significant tsunami in Phuket. I was able to confirm this by following Twitter immediately after receiving the alerts (search for "tsunami") where I was able to see when an "all-clear" message was posted at around 6:15am, long before the "authorities" had informed the public of any threat.

I hope this information helps give Phuket's residents and visitors peace-of-mind, in case of any future tsunami warnings.

There was no tsunami warning last week, only an alert (meaning: there may come a warning, but not yet).

[WOOHOO]

There was no tsunami warning last week, only an alert (meaning: there may come a warning, but not yet).

In that case it's definately a no. As someone who likes his sleep, being woken up by a warning, warning me that a warning may be on its way, isn't going to work. Somewhere else, but the risk here is way too low for that level of worry.

[petercallen]

Definitely no, but trying to cross a road in phuket on foot is something that does worry me.

[McFarang]

I do not think so but I have moved and purchased a Villa on higher ground (can still see the sea) and have strengthened the Mooring on my boat and pay my Insurance Premiums on Time.

[jpolten]

Could there be another one in our lifetime ? Yes of course.

Do i 'fear' one ? Nope.

If i see the tide going out at a fast rate at any of the beaches, i will be heading for the high-ground !

It could happen again tomorrow,next week,next month or not for a hundred years....

I don't fear another,but knowing they have warning buoys now gives a little peace of mind!(i hope they keep them well maintained)

Just so you know....the tide don't always go out before an event like this!!

[golfbum]

There was no tsunami warning last week, only an alert (meaning: there may come a warning, but not yet).

In that case it's definately a no. As someone who likes his sleep, being woken up by a warning, warning me that a warning may be on its way, isn't going to work. Somewhere else, but the risk here is way too low for that level of worry.

I guess it depends where you live. As someone who definitely lives in a "danger zone" in Kamala (nearly 3m of sea water went though my house in the 2004 tsunami), I like to know the facts if there is a quake out there, not rely on rumors or wait for the "authorities" to let us know. If you recall, it was the "authorities" who decided not to release a tsunami warning to the public in 2004, in case it upset the tourists! The quake last week was a little too small and too far south to be a real threat to Phuket, but I was relieved to know the facts in time to react if necessary.

[crusty]

Even though the world is changing dramatically at present, it is still highly unlikely that anything of that magnitude will happen again for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. I think the last one was the biggest event of its kind for something like 40 thousand years. And when it does happen again on a smaller scale, the amount of knowledge gained from the last one will save most of the lives that were lost that time. I don't think anybody will be collecting fish, next time the sea suddenly dissapears!

Well sorry to disappoint you but in fact it can happen again tomorrow same place. Two years ago an R.N. research ship sent an unmanned sub to the site and found the seabed had subsided some 400m. They concluded it was now more unstable than before and another one could occur next week, next month or next year. Time to move.

(ex R.A.N.)

[WOOHOO]

Well sorry to disappoint you but in fact it can happen again tomorrow same place. Two years ago an R.N. research ship sent an unmanned sub to the site and found the seabed had subsided some 400m. They concluded it was now more unstable than before and another one could occur next week, next month or next year. Time to move.

(ex R.A.N.)

It would be more logical to stop crossing the road for fear of being run over, than it would to move house for fear of a tsunami.

Being more unstable than it was before doesn't mean a great deal on the grand scale of things. It was unstable before, but took probably millions of years to happen right there. Now it's more unstable, maybe it will only take one million years for it to happen again.

The world is changing dramatically, climate being the best example, but you have to have an understanding of probability. To say that it is likely to happen again, on a scale as large as that, any time soon, is simply wrong in my opinion.

[stevenl]

Well sorry to disappoint you but in fact it can happen again tomorrow same place. Two years ago an R.N. research ship sent an unmanned sub to the site and found the seabed had subsided some 400m. They concluded it was now more unstable than before and another one could occur next week, next month or next year. Time to move.

(ex R.A.N.)

So RN (I presume Royal Navy) concluded that within one year there would be another tsunami here? Somehow I seriously doubt that was the conclusion of their research.

[barky]

I absolutely guarantee there WILL be another Tsunami to hit Phuket. You can bank on it. In fact I'll bet you one trillion baht.

Any takers.

Edited April 15, 2010 by barky

[WOOHOO]

Well sorry to disappoint you but in fact it can happen again tomorrow same place. Two years ago an R.N. research ship sent an unmanned sub to the site and found the seabed had subsided some 400m. They concluded it was now more unstable than before and another one could occur next week, next month or next year. Time to move.

(ex R.A.N.)

So RN (I presume Royal Navy) concluded that within one year there would be another tsunami here? Somehow I seriously doubt that was the conclusion of their research.

Actually they did the research two years ago, and concluded it could happen next week, next month, or next year. So a year has already passed since their prediction failed!!

I absolutely guarantee there WILL be another Tsunami to hit Phuket. You can bank on it. In fact I'll bet you one trillion baht.

Any takers.

Means nothing without a time scale. The sun will undoubtedly stop burning and implode one day, but I'm not planning my next holiday around it.