Uneasy Calm Between Thai Government And Military

[webfact]

Uneasy calm between govt and military

BANGKOK: -- One side may have overdone it. The other may have overreacted to it. But will Thursday's government-military drama over the GT200 bomb detectors lead to a break-up of the relationship that has been so crucial to maintaining a fragile semblance of political stability?

The answer is "unlikely". Highly informed government sources and observers believe the tension created by the military's emotional and stern press conference in defense of the controversial device was in response to an equally overstated message by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who had all but pronounced the equipment a total waste.

The sources ruled out deterioration of the tension, saying both sides might already be trying behind the scenes to mend fences. Some of the high-ranking government sources criticised the media for overdramatising Thursday's events.

"The media should not have fanned the tension, especially as the country is entering an extremely sensitive period politically," one source said.

It has been hard for the media to avoid such a story, though.

Two days after Abhisit told a news conference that scientific testing had confirmed the ineffectiveness of the GT200, military top brass lined up on television in an eerie show of solidarity, defending the use of the equipment they claimed had saved up to 7,500 lives in the deep South. In response, Abhisit insisted the device was useless.

All eyes were on Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban yesterday, because he has served as a good go-between over the past few years, making the relationship between the ruling Democrat Party and the military "unprecedentedly good".

However, said another source, while Suthep's mediating role might be needed, Abhisit and Army chief Anupong Paochinda were known to have established direct contact, and this might come in handy in situations like this.

Observers said Abhisit might have mishandled the test results by the Science Ministry, as the Army was left out when the prime minister went public to declare the GT200 as a virtually worthless device.

There was a better way to do it without hurting the military's feelings so much, they said.

Yet the military's response was even more stunning.

The television gathering seemed even more dramatic than when the top brass went on air to criticise the Somchai Wongsawat government over the bloody police crackdown on yellow-shirt protesters in October 2008.

However, none of the sources viewed it as a prelude to a breakdown in the relationship - or something worse.

After all, as bitter as it is, the military can hardly accuse the government of playing back-stabbing politics, since the whole GT200 episode started in the UK, which banned export of the devices to Iraq and Afghanistan.

"I see the military's move as an overreaction, but I don't think the gathering was meant to be a serious warning or anything," one source said.

At least for now. Both Abhisit and the military need to do damage control, because their actions may affect each other's responsibility.

Abhisit's declaration that the GT200 was not to be trusted could cast a shadow over cases in the deep South that involved the use of the device.

The military's staunch defence of GT200, on the other hand, must have killed any chance for Thailand to get any compensation or demand money back from the manufacturer.

Such issues can always come back to haunt both parties even if the government and military may have managed to cool down tensions now. But as of today, both sides know this is a bad time to quarrel.

The real test may not come until after next Friday, Judgement Day, when things will likely become more complicated for everyone.

-- The Nation 2010-02-20

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Credo]

I fail to see how the military can defend a device that either:

A) doesn't work

Is so complicated to operate that even scientists can't effectively operate it.

[RickBradford]

B)Is so complicated to operate that even scientists can't effectively operate it.

I believe the reason scientists can't use it is because it is too simple, not too complicated. It's a couple of Captain Universe ray-guns glued together, with a car aerial poking out of the top,

I fail to see how the military can defend a device

Like everything else in Thailand, it's to do with "face" (and perhaps some under-the-table kickbacks).

[Thailand]

Too much tea money involved here and the perps can't admit it so they go on the offensive.

It's seems pretty cut and dried the thing don't work-period.

Perhaps those defending it would like to walk through a minefield with it as their protection, may see a rapid change of attitude.

[Changian]

Observers said Abhisit might have mishandled the test results by the Science Ministry

mishandled = shouldn't made public

[Samuian]

The Question should be:

"Why was this important device not thoroughly tested BEFORE purchase?"

"Who is behind/responsible for the purchase?"

"Why did the UK Government stopped shipping of this device to Iraq and Afghanistan?"

"Who is the Manufacturer?"

"Why this deal isn't simply canceled on the base that it is a mal/non functioning device?"

or was there too much "tea money" involved, which can't be retrieved...?

[Thai at Heart]

All smoke and mirrors.

Forget the British company and trying to sue in British court.

The story will be answered in the books of the importing agent.

Whilst the government would dearly love to go after the manufacturer in the UK, technically the army bought the product from the Thai agent. One of the precise reasons for the annoying 51 to 49% ownership business is it insures that there is usually a Thai company in the string of transactions to be legally accessible should something like this occur. In this case it is a 100% Thai company in the way. Well, the stupid law may come around to bite the army on the backside.

I would suggest that the MD go and take out a pretty serious life insurance policy and hire some protection. I wonder how many kids this guy funds in school in the UK?

Edited February 20, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[animatic]

The Question should be:

"Why was this important device not thoroughly tested BEFORE purchase?"

"Who is behind/responsible for the purchase?"

"Why did the UK Government stopped shipping of this device to Iraq and Afghanistan?"

"Who is the Manufacturer?"

"Why this deal isn't simply canceled on the base that it is a mal/non functioning device?"

or was there too much "tea money" involved, which can't be retrieved...?

This sums it all up well.

Granted several other countries got bit just the same as Thailands army did.

Still the forces abroad are seeming to go for the gullet at the company

and likely will hang high their own testing people for letting such an egregious error pass through.

This army press conference is just to scrape off some egg from their faces

and pass it over to Abhisit for blabbing. Except Abhisit did EXACTLY the right thing.

[landofthefree]

All smoke and mirrors.

Forget the British company and trying to sue in British court.

The story will be answered in the books of the importing agent.

Whilst the government would dearly love to go after the manufacturer in the UK, technically the army bought the product from the Thai agent. One of the precise reasons for the annoying 51 to 49% ownership business is it insures that there is usually a Thai company in the string of transactions to be legally accessible should something like this occur. In this case it is a 100% Thai company in the way. Well, the stupid law may come around to bite the army on the backside.

I would suggest that the MD go and take out a pretty serious life insurance policy and hire some protection. I wonder how many kids this guy funds in school in the UK?

Interesting to see a picture of the real Thai Government (the ones that are wearing Military uniforms) Anyone want to take bets on the date when they will drive tanks back into Bangkok and set up another puppet Government?

[Thai at Heart]

Interesting to see a picture of the real Thai Government (the ones that are wearing Military uniforms) Anyone want to take bets on the date when they will drive tanks back into Bangkok and set up another puppet Government?

I wouldn't be surprised if this story might not become the straw that breaks the camels back. It all depends on whom it implicates. All the efforts under the sun to cover it up will occur, but I have a feeling this story has legs.

[chuang]

No GT200 no money to line the pockets of the generals....simple as that....

[geriatrickid]

Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road.

Ahhh but that can only happen in a children's story n'est ce pas?

If PM Abhisit was in a secure position and the government had authority over the military, this would have been a great opportunity to purge the officer ranks of a great many incompetent males in fancy uniforms. Unfortunately, there will be no inquiry and no court martials. Nor will the Thai agent have to pay up since that would mean some people would have to return the alleged bribes and kickbacks.

Too bad.

[Thai at Heart]

Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road.

Ahhh but that can only happen in a children's story n'est ce pas?

If PM Abhisit was in a secure position and the government had authority over the military, this would have been a great opportunity to purge the officer ranks of a great many incompetent males in fancy uniforms. Unfortunately, there will be no inquiry and no court martials. Nor will the Thai agent have to pay up since that would mean some people would have to return the alleged bribes and kickbacks.

Too bad.

I am not so sure. It depends what they can keep out of the public domain. It may be a little bit like the scanners at the airport. Abhisit has made noises that he wants to sue, he can't very well do nothing now can he.

Either way, I am sure a great many people in the country are shrugging their shoulders and coming to or have come to the conclusion that they are all as bad as each other. If it brings the army down a peg or two, good.

I love how they bring is down to being between the army and the government. In reality, it is the army and their inability to stand up to public scrutiny. They want all the benefits and respect without the necessary "minerals" so to say. In the days of yore when pigeon post and radio was all there was to control they could run amok around the country to their hearts content and feather their nests, safe behind the camp walls with a gun.

Much in the same way that 99.9% of Thai politicians can't stand the sun so they skulk around in the dark, the army can't stand the spotlight either.

Edited February 20, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[AGareth2]

tax earnings are minimal enough without having to waste it

[hammered]

Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road.

Ahhh but that can only happen in a children's story n'est ce pas?

If PM Abhisit was in a secure position and the government had authority over the military, this would have been a great opportunity to purge the officer ranks of a great many incompetent males in fancy uniforms. Unfortunately, there will be no inquiry and no court martials. Nor will the Thai agent have to pay up since that would mean some people would have to return the alleged bribes and kickbacks.

Too bad.

I am not so sure. It depends what they can keep out of the public domain. It may be a little bit like the scanners at the airport. Abhisit has made noises that he wants to sue, he can't very well do nothing now can he.

Either way, I am sure a great many people in the country are shrugging their shoulders and coming to or have come to the conclusion that they are all as bad as each other. If it brings the army down a peg or two, good.

I love how they bring is down to being between the army and the government. In reality, it is the army and their inability to stand up to public scrutiny. They want all the benefits and respect without the necessary "minerals" so to say. In the days of yore when pigeon post and radio was all there was to control they could run amok around the country to their hearts content and feather their nests, safe behind the camp walls with a gun.

Much in the same way that 99.9% of Thai politicians can't stand the sun so they skulk around in the dark, the army can't stand the spotlight either.

Abhisit going up against the army is good to see but it may not do much for his logetivity as PM. The question is can they afford to get rid of him and are his party behind him. Judging by the way he has made his remarks he certainly seems to think he is secure and right now there dont really seem like loads of qualified candidates for PM in the parliament and last time there was a coup people were lining up to say they had no intention of being PM.

[misterjag]

If Thailand had an effective government, heads (with braids on their shoulders) would roll for this cock up. When is Thailand going to rein in its military and put it firmly under the thumb of a civilian administration?

Edited February 20, 2010 by misterjag

[Samuian]

Interesting to see a picture of the real Thai Government (the ones that are wearing Military uniforms) Anyone want to take bets on the date when they will drive tanks back into Bangkok and set up another puppet Government?

I wouldn't be surprised if this story might not become the straw that breaks the camels back. It all depends on whom it implicates. All the efforts under the sun to cover it up will occur, but I have a feeling this story has legs.

Me too, me too!

"Leg's" to come from where or to go somewhere or both?

Maybe some strings are pulled!?

Destabilizing a strong power structure, Prem, Surayud, is it all accidentally circumstantial - I don't think so...!

[tonywebster]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

[Thai at Heart]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

16 out of 20 False Positives or Negatives?

Hardly reassuring in a life and death situation, and bear in mind people have been convicted on the back of this hocus pocus.

[Old Man River]

When is Thailand going to rein in its military and put it firmly under the thumb of a civilian administration?

"Thailand" does not reign in the military. The military reigns in "Thailand." Take a look at the military. You don't see the same last names constantly making it to the top. It is all about loyalty and trust. This makes it very difficult for an outside force to control, let alone outsiders to understand.

[ding]

Losing face, and professional courtesy - lead to a less efficient handling of matters of state.

[tonywebster]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

16 out of 20 False Positives or Negatives?

Hardly reassuring in a life and death situation, and bear in mind people have been convicted on the back of this hocus pocus.

That is not what I asked though, in the test (which can also be flawed) it scored 4 out of 20, I am talking about in the field. Can it be proven that it has missed explosives. As for convictions surely the conviction would come only if explosives were found rather than some machine thinking there was explosives but upon searching there were none.

as for Abhisit, you never slag your boss off, especially in the press, naughty boy

[Thai at Heart]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

16 out of 20 False Positives or Negatives?

Hardly reassuring in a life and death situation, and bear in mind people have been convicted on the back of this hocus pocus.

That is not what I asked though, in the test (which can also be flawed) it scored 4 out of 20, I am talking about in the field. Can it be proven that it has missed explosives. As for convictions surely the conviction would come only if explosives were found rather than some machine thinking there was explosives but upon searching there were none.

as for Abhisit, you never slag your boss off, especially in the press, naughty boy

There are a few pictures on a blog that I posted somewhere in the discussion that show explosions after the machine said there weren't any. There was also stories in the papers a few months ago of a sweep being done and an explosion occurring in a market I believe. There is missing explosives but also claiming explosives to be present when there are any. In a search of a building for example, that is a nice surprise I guess, but when searching people this is very bad particularly when it leads to convictions.

So there are some stories of it having missed some.

If the thing was accurate, why would the world be bothering with xrays and metal detectors in airports. Just hook up a couple at immigration and wait for them to point at people to designate the explosive carriers.

As for a conviction, I think (and I stress think) that there have been some stories of people being arrested on suspicion of handling explosives and a test confirming that they had handled. The other very public one is the case during the riots last year when a poor woman died. The GT 200 confirmed that she hadn't been handling explosives and so she must have been killed by a grenade. How the machine differentiates between explosives in a grenade and other types, the courts will want to hear about now I am sure.

This machine cannot with any accuracy say whether explosives are or are not present. That is it, and as such, I would prefer they issued the army with 11 baht coins, that can be bought from me for 10 baht.

He has been pretty brave in taking on the army. He probably believed that not even they could be so dumb as to continue to support using this stupid thing. As for Porntip, he will probably ask her round for dinner and give her a 20 bowls of soup and get her to test if they are laced with cyanide.

I am incredulous that supposedly intelligent people are continuing to support this nonsense. Abhisit must be wondering what he did to deserve this rubbish. I mean if Anupong stood up and said that white is black and black is white, surely someone with half a brain would state otherwise, or is the country completely made up of sheep and the emperor allowed to walk around naked? The army are making themselves look like plonkers over this, and now the head has dug himself in so deep he can't get out.

If there is one thing in this whole process that is probably correct it is the set up of a double blind test. A physics high school grad can handle that. All the rest of the stuff appears beyond the army or some forensic scientists in Thailand it appears.

Edited February 20, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[Publicus]

Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road.

Ahhh but that can only happen in a children's story n'est ce pas?

If PM Abhisit was in a secure position and the government had authority over the military, this would have been a great opportunity to purge the officer ranks of a great many incompetent males in fancy uniforms. Unfortunately, there will be no inquiry and no court martials. Nor will the Thai agent have to pay up since that would mean some people would have to return the alleged bribes and kickbacks.

Too bad.

I am not so sure. It depends what they can keep out of the public domain. It may be a little bit like the scanners at the airport. Abhisit has made noises that he wants to sue, he can't very well do nothing now can he.

Either way, I am sure a great many people in the country are shrugging their shoulders and coming to or have come to the conclusion that they are all as bad as each other. If it brings the army down a peg or two, good.

I love how they bring is down to being between the army and the government. In reality, it is the army and their inability to stand up to public scrutiny. They want all the benefits and respect without the necessary "minerals" so to say. In the days of yore when pigeon post and radio was all there was to control they could run amok around the country to their hearts content and feather their nests, safe behind the camp walls with a gun.

Much in the same way that 99.9% of Thai politicians can't stand the sun so they skulk around in the dark, the army can't stand the spotlight either.

Abhisit going up against the army is good to see but it may not do much for his logetivity as PM. The question is can they afford to get rid of him and are his party behind him. Judging by the way he has made his remarks he certainly seems to think he is secure and right now there dont really seem like loads of qualified candidates for PM in the parliament and last time there was a coup people were lining up to say they had no intention of being PM.

Abhisit's position has increasingly become stronger over time, which is not to say he's in a strong position, but that he's increased his standing in the government and among the population in general; he's certainly improved Thailand's standing abroad. Abhsit helps himself and his cause by making noises against the army, particularly with the in-between voters, those voters who whose color might be white/blanc.

Abhisit's critics will of course give him no points for speaking against something military, as in this obvious instance. The generals are in no position to slap him down either. That this is a good thing for Abhisit to do is a no-brainer.

[animatic]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

16 out of 20 False Positives or Negatives?

Hardly reassuring in a life and death situation, and bear in mind people have been convicted on the back of this hocus pocus.

That is not what I asked though, in the test (which can also be flawed) it scored 4 out of 20, I am talking about in the field. Can it be proven that it has missed explosives. As for convictions surely the conviction would come only if explosives were found rather than some machine thinking there was explosives but upon searching there were none.

as for Abhisit, you never slag your boss off, especially in the press, naughty boy

Sorry but 4 out of 20 in emperical double blind testing in a controlled environment is pathetic,

and well below the threshold of random guessing. So the idea that it can do better in the field is a non starter,

I would guess the number drops to 1 of 20 or less.

The idea is not to read false positives and then go in an search by hand.

Sorry this is NOT what the box is sold to do. And sorry again distance

is only relevant vs wind direction. Sniffers can only detect why they can smell,

and so it must be in windless proximity or relatively down wind.

A wild wind scatters more than a gentle lilting breeze towards you.

There are a number of real working units, the military even seem to have a few,

but some middle echelon numbnuts decided to float this 'cheaper' one past his boss,

and likely greased many palms, while knowing full well it was a sham, and now his bosses

must be thick faced for letting a subordinate make them look fools.

So for the moment these units will be 'used' more sparingly. ie back burnered while the think fast.

Problem is now they MUST pay what they SHOULD have paid originally, after losing the cash for this scam unit.

As they say in New England:

" Long after the joy of low price wears off, lingers the curse of poor quality."

Edited February 20, 2010 by animatic

[Murgatroyd]

I understand that tests on this device have more or less proved that it is not the magic wand that it was sold as. I believe that this gadget was sold as a multi purpose detection device, and that it comes with a number of "Cards" which can be inserted so as to "tune" it to detect Drugs, Explosives, and a range of other undesirable substances. On analysis these cards turned out to have no electronic components whatsoever... they were exactly that... cards. Thus it seems very unlikely that the machine is capable of detecting the difference between semtex, heroin, cyanide or jelly babies. What is likely is that the wildly inconsistant priceing of these units allowed various individuals to accept "Tokens of esteem" for sanctioning the purchase of the units, and for huge profits to be made by both the sales agents and the manufacturers. I would imagine that it is to these "Sales Agents" that representations will be made for redress. If, as seems inevitable, this situation is going to cause embarrasment and loss of face to high ranking officers, who continue to try to justify the purchase of the units by singing it's praises, then I wouldn't want to be standing in the boots of those who sold it to them.

[Splatter]

I fail to see how the military can defend a device that either:

A) doesn't work

Is so complicated to operate that even scientists can't effectively operate it.

Are you talking about the G200 devices

or

the current Thai political system ?

[Steve2UK]

I fail to see how the military can defend a device that either:

A) doesn't work

Is so complicated to operate that even scientists can't effectively operate it.

Are you talking about the G200 devices

or

the current Thai political system ?

It seems that (at least parts of) the Thai military may themselves be a bit confused as to which GT200 they were/are "staunchly defending"..... Included in the televised presentation was this slide:

It shows the GT200 chip architecture employed in a range of nVidia video graphics cards popular among PC game-players etc (cf. http://techreport.com/articles.x/14934 ). This "snafu" slide is now doing the rounds of the blogosphere - together with a handily annotated excerpt of the televised coverage which features it:

One can assume that the hapless personnel who mistakenly included it in a presentation fronted by Army chief Anupong are now contemplating their future - though it has also been suggested* that its inclusion may have been deliberate and calculated to imply that there is electronic circuitry inside the Army's GT200 (with the assumption that the Thai media wouldn't dream of questioning it). Judging by comments on the Youtube video, the consensus seems to favour cock-up over conspiracy. What do TVF members think?

* http://asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pund...ry-intelligence

[jybkk]

I am confused about this, can anyone categorically state that it missed explosives when being used? as an example has it been pointed at a car that later exploded.

The fact is it has discovered explosives and saved lives, this has been shown to be true.

As the military, you are jumping conclusions:

GT200 did not discover explosives.

Explosive were discovered while using it.

Because of the confirmation bias, the military concluded that the explosives were discovered thanks to the device.

Think about how many devices are used, how many times they are randomly pointing at some cars or people. There's a chance that sometimes it will point at the good one. This is what the military count and remember as "successful" detection.

Add to this the fact that this scam relies on uncontrolled movements from the operator who brings the rod to point towards where he thinks there might be something. Then the chances to find explosives are higher because these operators are experienced men who will probably have a good intuition about who's likely to be a terrorist.

Now remove the GT200 from the hands of the operator, he can now focus on his intuition only and find MANY MORE bombs. That way, he also won't put in prison innocent bystanders randomly pointed at by this scam.

The device detected nothing during the tests.

There was a 25% chance of finding the bombs using no device at all. Using the device, they found... 20%. Less than pure chance.

People concluding that the device detects 1 out of 5 bombs are wrong.

If the test was designed with 10 containers with 1 bomb, then the "findings" would have been 10%... and score would be lower and lower as the number of containers is bigger.

If I told you: go in the test room wearing an amulet, then focus and tell me which of the 4 boxes contain the explosive. Do this 20 times and count how many times you scored right.

There's a very big chance you'll have been right 4 to 6 times, right?

Would you conclude that the amulet has a detection ability of about 20%?

Of course not.

Neither does the GT200

[Thai at Heart]

I fail to see how the military can defend a device that either:

A) doesn't work

Is so complicated to operate that even scientists can't effectively operate it.

Are you talking about the G200 devices

or

the current Thai political system ?

It seems that (at least parts of) the Thai military may themselves be a bit confused as to which GT200 they were/are "staunchly defending"..... Included in the televised presentation was this slide:

It shows the GT200 chip architecture employed in a range of nVidia video graphics cards popular among PC game-players etc (cf. http://techreport.com/articles.x/14934 ). This "snafu" slide is now doing the rounds of the blogosphere - together with a handily annotated excerpt of the televised coverage which features it:

One can assume that the hapless personnel who mistakenly included it in a presentation fronted by Army chief Anupong are now contemplating their future - though it has also been suggested* that its inclusion may have been deliberate and calculated to imply that there is electronic circuitry inside the Army's GT200 (with the assumption that the Thai media wouldn't dream of questioning it). Judging by comments on the Youtube video, the consensus seems to favour cock-up over conspiracy. What do TVF members think?

* http://asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pund...ry-intelligence

If the price had been 10baht a piece, no one would care. The mere fact that they spent 100s of millions on this suggests that it isn't a cock up.