Thailand Braces For Explosive Thaksin Verdict

[webfact]

Thailand braces for explosive Thaksin verdict - Focus

by Claire Truscott

BANGKOK: -- (AFP) - Thailand has stepped up security and is braced for fresh turmoil this week as the country's top court decides the fate of fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's 2.2-billion-dollar fortune.

The government has deployed thousands of troops and assigned guards to Supreme Court judges while embassies have issued travel warnings due to fears of a violent backlash if the tycoon's funds are seized on Friday.

Thaksin's supporters, known as Red Shirts for their signature garb, have vowed to demonstrate after the verdict, expecting that he will lose at least some of the assets frozen after he was deposed in a 2006 coup.

They have insisted any action will be non-violent.

"We will wait and see what the court says, but any injustice will bring about a phenomenon," Red Shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan told AFP, adding that the government "underestimates the Red Shirts".

The current Thaksin-hating administration has done little to quell fears of trouble, analysts say, instead stoking anxieties by casting the Red Shirts as a dangerous force in a bid to take the focus off the fragile governing coalition.

At least 20,000 extra security personnel have been deployed across Bangkok and pro-Thaksin regions, including around the homes of judges, politicians and government and commercial institutions.

Last week a bomb was defused near the Supreme Court and a grenade exploded at government offices, prompting the United States, Britain and Australia to warn people visiting Bangkok to exercise caution.

The government has announced it will cede control of security to the army and even declare an emergency if necessary, but says it hopes to control the situation.

"We hope that the security measures that we have put in place can handle the instability or incidents that can cause violence," government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn told AFP.

"If the security measures are employed accordingly we should not have any trouble."

Thailand has been beset by political turbulence since the 2006 coup.

Thaksin's "Yellow Shirt" opponents -- a disparate collection of royalist and military elites -- forced the closure of Bangkok's airports in late 2008 after months of sometimes violent rallies.

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

They have numbered no more than 30,000 at protests this year but 100,000 turned out last April, when they forced a major Asian summit to shut down and rioting broke out in Bangkok.

The threat they pose could, however, have been overblown for political gain, said Michael Montesano, an expert on Thai politics at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"The fact that they need to put in place these measures today is a reminder of how little progress the Abhisit government has made since coming to power in changing the political landscape," he said. "I think a lot of it's propaganda."

Eton and Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is seen as an elitist among the Red Shirts, who remain a key electoral force.

Talk of an imminent coup is relentless in Thailand, where there have been 18 coups and attempted coups in the 64-year reign of King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

But analysts say Abhisit, who came to power in 2008, will hang on as long as he maintains the wavering support of the country's top brass.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-02-21

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[givenall]

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

If truly the RED shirt wanted to have Thaksin back as so called a good prime minster, then why they care about the verdict. The verdict is nothing to do with Mr. T. political ambitions , only his pocket book. I think Most of the supporter also know this that is why the number of RED shirt demonstrator has shrunk to almost nothing

[katasyd]

Just see if the rest of the Thaksin clan fly out of Thailand this week.

Always a good indicator for things to come.

[KKvampire]

Theres gonna be fireworks if as it seems likely the court rules against thaksin, which many millions believe,(i lived in Isaan) is a political court and continuing the persecution of their great leader

[Thailand]

"The current Thaksin-hating administration has done little to quell fears of trouble, analysts say, instead stoking anxieties by casting the Red Shirts as a dangerous force in a bid to take the focus off the fragile governing coalition."

Now that is where a lot of the problems have come from. The current gov has kept the Thaksin legend well and truly on the boil.

Will he lose his money, sure he will and I am sure his supporters expect that outcome, nothing to protest about if he gets it back.

Shooting oneself in the foot is a well respected Thailand tradition I don't see it changing now.

It's better than any soap opera you might see here or abroad. Unfortunately just continually gives a very poor impression to those overseas. Nothing new.

[Gary A]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

[Valentine]

The headline alone is enough to stir up trouble.

[antony77]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

Thaksin made his first pile of money by selling computers to the Police. Since he was a high ranking police officer. Is that not a conflict of interest? Was the tender for computers transparent?

[Miami Bob]

It's just one group of corrupt thugs trying to wrestle the money away from another group of corrupt thugs. A fight over the money. So what's new in this country or any other for that matter.

[Gonzo the Face]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

For the sake of discussion, lets accept what you say above. If Thaksin is found guilty and the majority of funds seized are surrendered to the stat, consider the following.

As we have also read, a guilty verdict in the above will, in all probability. result in additional criminal charges being placed against Mr. Thaksin.

Then I would submit that the balance of Thakssin's funds now frozen, and not surrendered to the state by the possible upcoming Friday verdict, should be frozen to pay damages, in a new guilty verdict, which may be forthcoming , on the possible new criminal charges .

[ThienTu]

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

If truly the RED shirt wanted to have Thaksin back as so called a good prime minster, then why they care about the verdict. The verdict is nothing to do with Mr. T. political ambitions , only his pocket book. I think Most of the supporter also know this that is why the number of RED shirt demonstrator has shrunk to almost nothing

Red and Yellow when mixed together make Orange. Can you buy Orange shirts in Thailand.

[rixalex]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

Is it right for the state to return any sum of money to a convicted criminal who remains on the run?

Surely, if any money is to be returned, a condition of that should be him coming back to face justice.

[geriatrickid]

The headline alone is enough to stir up trouble.

Agreed. Maybe if the rags stopped beating the drums of confrontation and looked for stories with a positive side to them, cooler heads would prevail. The way the press makes it out people are just itching for a brawl and judging from the comments of my friends, they genuinely wish for peace.

[TonyH]

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

If truly the RED shirt wanted to have Thaksin back as so called a good prime minster, then why they care about the verdict. The verdict is nothing to do with Mr. T. political ambitions , only his pocket book. I think Most of the supporter also know this that is why the number of RED shirt demonstrator has shrunk to almost nothing

Because the red shits are being paid millions of baht per week. The "cash" has been smuggled in over the border without fail for many many months. if his money is confiscated, Thaksin will have to pull back on the purse strings and rely on the moneys that are not included in the return of state monies. There wont be much to splash around anymore.

[Gary A]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

Thaksin made his first pile of money by selling computers to the Police. Since he was a high ranking police officer. Is that not a conflict of interest? Was the tender for computers transparent?

If that were the case, his opponents would have certainly used that to block his appointment. If the money trail were followed the same for all the current politicians they would ALL be in jail.

[rixalex]

The headline alone is enough to stir up trouble.

Agreed. Maybe if the rags stopped beating the drums of confrontation and looked for stories with a positive side to them, cooler heads would prevail. The way the press makes it out people are just itching for a brawl and judging from the comments of my friends, they genuinely wish for peace.

Yeah i also have to agree with that.

If the press is generally as anti-Thaksin as we are led to believe, i don't get why they give him and his cause so much publicity.

Guess it sells, and as always with the print, that's the bottom line.

[foxyhooper]

Seize the moment,right now he is a ant crawling around in circle dreading the final stamp and twist.I suggest take all the money (don't arm the enemy) cancel his nationality.Its as good as it gets without a bullet.<deleted> him and his prostitute misguided halfwits.Time to move on

[h90]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

Thaksin made his first pile of money by selling computers to the Police. Since he was a high ranking police officer. Is that not a conflict of interest? Was the tender for computers transparent?

If that were the case, his opponents would have certainly used that to block his appointment. If the money trail were followed the same for all the current politicians they would ALL be in jail.

And the mobile phone license he bought from Suchinda (I think). And before it was already found that he hide share, but the court told it was just a "honest mistake".....

[Insight]

The headline alone is enough to stir up trouble.

Agreed. Maybe if the rags stopped beating the drums of confrontation and looked for stories with a positive side to them, cooler heads would prevail. The way the press makes it out people are just itching for a brawl and judging from the comments of my friends, they genuinely wish for peace.

Yeah i also have to agree with that.

If the press is generally as anti-Thaksin as we are led to believe, i don't get why they give him and his cause so much publicity.

Guess it sells, and as always with the print, that's the bottom line.

Also agree. Unless any real trouble happens, which - knock on wood - is looking less likely now than two weeks ago IMHO, the only day this verdict should really receive any attention is the actual day of the verdict.

I notice the Beeb has (had the sense to) avoid any coverage of the build up so far. Can only speculate why...

[Sir_Sanuk]

yet another inflammatory headline that is completely out of touch.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

If truly the RED shirt wanted to have Thaksin back as so called a good prime minster, then why they care about the verdict. The verdict is nothing to do with Mr. T. political ambitions , only his pocket book.

Good question, and one that I can answer: They feel that the charges are politically motivated, and that the courts are not impartial so that there's effectively no justice to be had from the Thai legal system. While the verdict is about Thaksin's assets, they perceive the primary motivation to be the weakening their side of the political spectrum.

(I'm assuming this was actually a question you wanted answered. I went by the presence of the word 'why'. There are enough Red leaning English language publications out there that will provide a broader understanding of the issues, as perceived by the Red side.)

Edited February 21, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[bkksteviejai]

The headline alone is enough to stir up trouble.

Agreed. Maybe if the rags stopped beating the drums of confrontation and looked for stories with a positive side to them, cooler heads would prevail. The way the press makes it out people are just itching for a brawl and judging from the comments of my friends, they genuinely wish for peace.

Yeah i also have to agree with that.

If the press is generally as anti-Thaksin as we are led to believe, i don't get why they give him and his cause so much publicity.

Guess it sells, and as always with the print, that's the bottom line.

Also agree. Unless any real trouble happens, which - knock on wood - is looking less likely now than two weeks ago IMHO, the only day this verdict should really receive any attention is the actual day of the verdict.

I notice the Beeb has (had the sense to) avoid any coverage of the build up so far. Can only speculate why...

The whereabouts of John Terry's c@ck?............square face aint news for that lot.

[moskito]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

when I remember correctly he stated around 68000 (sixtyeightthousand) in 2000

His wife and kids, even the household staff got a little bit more on their accounts

Anyway, Thaksin is still loved by the most Isaan people and doesnt matter what he did to somebody else, at least he did SOMETHING to this poor

people up north. We should not underestimate that, even if WE know better what and why he did it.

For me personally its the same if Thaksin or Abhisit rules the country, I cant remember anything Abhisit did so far what makes MY or the Thaipeoples life better....whats the difference for you my fellow TV members?

[tooninthai]

Now the Red Shirts, mainly from the rural north and northeast, want to see the return of Thaksin, who is living abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption.

If truly the RED shirt wanted to have Thaksin back as so called a good prime minster, then why they care about the verdict. The verdict is nothing to do with Mr. T. political ambitions , only his pocket book. I think Most of the supporter also know this that is why the number of RED shirt demonstrator has shrunk to almost nothing

In one demonstration yesterday there were approx 3,000 red shirts and no violence. That was in a medium size provincial town (a city to a Thai). There were also yellow shirts in attendance on the fringes. As I was around and about, I saw many many others wearing red shirts too on that day. These people were working and unable to get to the demo, but seemed to be showing support by wearing the red shirts on that day.

If you really think the red shirts are dwindling, you really need to look again imho.

[tooninthai]

If the verdict is a fair one, I doubt there will be any problems. No way could the government keep it all. Thaksin had to submit financial statements before being named prime minister. That much should be returned plus a reasonable return on the original amount.

when I remember correctly he stated around 68000 (sixtyeightthousand) in 2000

His wife and kids, even the household staff got a little bit more on their accounts

Anyway, Thaksin is still loved by the most Isaan people and doesnt matter what he did to somebody else, at least he did SOMETHING to this poor

people up north. We should not underestimate that, even if WE know better what and why he did it.

For me personally its the same if Thaksin or Abhisit rules the country, I cant remember anything Abhisit did so far what makes MY or the Thaipeoples life better....whats the difference for you my fellow TV members?

One thing the Thaksin government did that many may not know about was give 'loans' to people to be able to educate themselves and in one case it does impact on many of us who ever need to visit a hospital.

For example he gave loans to poorer students to attend medical school to learn how to become nursing assistants and for those same people to be able, in the future, to go on to become nurses. A 6 month course at med training school was 40,000 Baht. The Thaksin government loaned the students the money and the students paid the loan back when they started work.

Before that, they had little or no chance of improving themselves.

I know of this because the g/f used to run a medical training school and over the years many thousands of people attended, trained and passed through the school. Most of those will remember it was due to Thaksin that they now work in hospitals.

I am sure there are more instances of examples like this that we never hear about.

[hhgz]

"I know of this because the g/f..."

Who is "the" g/f? Do you mean YOUR g/f? The house, the car, the cat, the g/f...just another possession.

[ballpoint]

One thing the Thaksin government did that many may not know about was give 'loans' to people to be able to educate themselves and in one case it does impact on many of us who ever need to visit a hospital.

For example he gave loans to poorer students to attend medical school to learn how to become nursing assistants and for those same people to be able, in the future, to go on to become nurses. A 6 month course at med training school was 40,000 Baht. The Thaksin government loaned the students the money and the students paid the loan back when they started work.

Before that, they had little or no chance of improving themselves.

I know of this because the g/f used to run a medical training school and over the years many thousands of people attended, trained and passed through the school. Most of those will remember it was due to Thaksin that they now work in hospitals.

I am sure there are more instances of examples like this that we never hear about.

And so what? What's this got to do with the current trial over whether he abused his position of authority to make money? Are you trying to say that because someone may have done something good he should be exonerated of any crimes he also did? Hardly a glowing model of democracy, which holds that no person is above the law.

[Berek]

Please Mr. Army General protect the airport this time. I'm due to fly in for a holiday in the beginning of March and would not like to loose my paid for holidays....

[manarak]

"I know of this because the g/f..."

Who is "the" g/f? Do you mean YOUR g/f? The house, the car, the cat, the g/f...just another possession.

what an inane post hhgz...

[landofthefree]

"The current Thaksin-hating administration has done little to quell fears of trouble, analysts say, instead stoking anxieties by casting the Red Shirts as a dangerous force in a bid to take the focus off the fragile governing coalition."

Now that is where a lot of the problems have come from. The current gov has kept the Thaksin legend well and truly on the boil.

Will he lose his money, sure he will and I am sure his supporters expect that outcome, nothing to protest about if he gets it back.

Shooting oneself in the foot is a well respected Thailand tradition I don't see it changing now.

It's better than any soap opera you might see here or abroad. Unfortunately just continually gives a very poor impression to those overseas. Nothing new.

When the court has taken all of Thaksins money and there are no demonstrations no public order issues and nothing happening just what are the Nation and Bangkok post going to have to report about?