Thailand On Edge As Court Rules On Thaksin Billions

[webfact]

Thailand on edge as court rules on Thaksin billions

by Danny Kemp

BANGKOK: -- (AFP) - Thailand's top court will decide Friday whether to seize the more than two-billion-dollar fortune of fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra in a ruling that could unleash fresh political turmoil.

Dubbed "Judgment Day" by local media, the looming verdict has prompted the government to deploy tens of thousands of security forces across the country amid warnings of potential violence by Thaksin's supporters.

Opposition groups have said they will only muster a small crowd on the day to save their fire for major protests in two weeks' time, but a grenade blast in Bangkok at the weekend has ramped up tensions in the capital.

The case centres on proceeds from the sale of Thaksin's telecoms company, but goes to the heart of the rifts that have split Thai society since he was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and forced into exile.

His "Red Shirt" supporters, largely from his stronghold in Thailand's poor north and north-east, loved his populist policies and accuse the current government of being an unelected elite that has hijacked their democratic rights.

The tycoon's opponents in the Bangkok-based circles around the palace, military and bureaucracy accuse Thaksin of being corrupt, dictatorial and of threatening Thailand's widely revered monarchy.

Deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of national security, tried to play down the wider significance of the case, saying it concerned only Thaksin's wealth.

"Thaksin must respect and accept the rule of law as well as other Thai people. It's not possible for the whole Thai nation to respect the law but not Thaksin," he said late Thursday.

Up to 35,000 police and soldiers have been ordered to secure Bangkok and provinces where Thaksin is popular, while guards have been assigned to protect the nine judges dealing with the case, the government says.

"Security forces are deployed in key areas and the security plan will be stepped up during the reading of the verdict," government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said.

"We are confident that all important persons in judicial, executive, and legislative branches are under tight security," he said.

The Red Shirts say they will not demonstrate outside the court on Friday but they will hold mass protests in Bangkok from March 12 which they expect a million people to attend.

The biggest previous protests by the movement have gathered around 100,000.

Police said they expected only a few hundred protesters to gather near the court on Friday and up to 3,000 elsewhere in the capital. Police said around 450 officers would take up positions outside the court after the verdict.

The judges have various options, such as ruling that the government should confiscate all of Thaksin's wealth or that it should take only part of the money, for example the portion he earned after taking power.

Thaksin was ousted after months of protests over the January 2006 sale by his family of nearly 50 percent of shares in his Shin Corp telecoms giant to Singapore's Temasek Holdings.

The funds were frozen by the country's anti-graft commission shortly afterwards on the grounds that Thaksin had became "unusually rich" by abusing his power after becoming prime minister in 2001.

Thaksin is living abroad, with his main base in Dubai, to avoid a jail term imposed in absentia in 2008 for corruption relating to a deal involving land owned by his ex-wife.

Thaksin's lawyers have argued that the frozen assets actually belong to his former partner, their children and other family members and cannot be seized by the government.

Last week police defused a bomb near the Supreme Court and a grenade exploded near government offices, leading the US, British and Australian embassies to warn their citizens to exercise caution in Bangkok.

The Red Shirts have waged a long street campaign against the current administration of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, with riots at an Asian summit and in Bangkok in April 2009 leaving two people dead.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-02-26

Published with written approval from AFP.

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[webfact]

THAKSIN'S D-DAY

Majority of Thais believe in judges, but 1-in-5 doubtful

By The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The majority of people in the greater Bangkok metropolis still have confidence in the judiciary despite negative news about the justice system, a public opinion survey by Assumption University has found.

A total of 53.8 per cent of respondents said they had confidence in the judiciary's independence and immunity from any form of intervention, according to findings by the university's Abac Poll released yesterday.

But another 21 per cent of those surveyed said they had no confidence - while the remaining 25.2 per cent declined to comment on the issue.

When asked if recent rumours of bribes being offered to judges would affect confidence towards the judiciary, 52.9 per cent of the respondents said they did not think there would be any negative impact -compared to 23 per cent who expected some negative impact.

The survey was conducted among 1,106 people aged 18 and over living Bangkok and the surrounding provinces, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of the respondents, 21.2 per cent identified themselves as supporters of the current government, 18.6 per cent as non-supporters, and the remaining 60.2 per cent as neutral.

Among those identifying themselves as neutral, 60.5 per cent said they had full confidence in the Thai justice system and were convinced it was among the best in Southeast Asia , according to poll results. Another 18.1 per cent in this group had no confidence, while the remaining 21.4 per cent gave no comment. Slightly over 61 per cent of the "neutral" group said the public should accept the court verdict on the assets seizure case against ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, while another 20.2 per cent said the ruling should not be accepted.

When asked about the country's outlook, 87.6 per cent of those who said they took no sides saw Thailand's chance of outgrowing others in this region - if Thais had unity and maintained peace. Only 12.4 per cent disagreed.

Noppadon Kannikar, director of the Abac Poll, said that although the majority of those surveyed had confidence in the justice system, the number of people with no confidence was sufficient to cause concern over the country's stability.

-- The Nation 2010-02-26

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[webfact]

Where are Shinawatra kids today?

By The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The three children of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and his ex-wife Khunying Pojaman na Pombejra are not attending the much-awaited reading of the verdict today on their Bt76-billion frozen assets.

None of them is travelling overseas or making any statements after the Supreme Court's verdict has been read out, their publicists say, adding: "They are at a safe house in Bangkok."

The reading of the verdict is expected to begin at 2pm today, once the judges convene at 1.30pm.

Meanwhile, Thaksin will be addressing MPs and Pheu Thai Party members via a phone-link at the party headquarters. Leading figures expected to be there include former premiers Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Somchai Wongsawat - Thaksin's brother-in-law - along with his wife Yaowapa, Thaksin's brother Payap and sister Yingluck.

Thakin's live messages will also be broadcast from 9am on a satellite channel and the website run by his two children.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's whereabouts are being kept confidential due to security concerns.

A war room has been set up at the Democrat Party's headquarters, where the situation will be monitored all day and daily meetings will continue "until the situation is eased". Most Democrats and party MPs are advised not to go to the courtroom, except for former leader Banyat Banthadthan, who is a lawyer. The war room's operations and the Democrat Party's daily meetings will be coordinated with a situation-monitoring committee set up by the government.

Army chief General Anupong Paochinda is on standby at the Army Headquarters, as are commanders of the Navy and the Air Force.

The three core red-shirt leaders - Veera Musigapong, Nattawut Saikua and Jatuporn Promphan - are at the People Channel TV station at a shopping mall on Lat Phrao Road and are expected to make statements after the verdict is read out.

-- The Nation 2010-02-26

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[webfact]

THAKSIN'S ASSETS?

Thaksin and his family's assets sure go a long way

By Budsarakham Sinlapalavan

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- If you have nothing to do while waiting for the court's verdict on ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Bt76 billion in assets, let's play a calculation game to kill the time and dream about what to do with such a large amount of money.

Converting the money into cash, it would be 76 million Bt1,000 banknotes. Let count it first. The most efficient official at a commercial bank can count Bt1 million worth of Bt1,000 banknotes within three minutes, and a counting machine can do it in a minute.

Using both a human and a machine, to make sure the counting is correct, it would take four minutes to count the banknotes for Bt1 million. It would take 304,000 minutes, or 5,066.67 hours, or 211.11 days, or 7.04 months to count the whole Bt76 billion in cash.

In Bt1,000 banknotes, the money's total weight would be 30,400 kilograms, or 30.4 tonnes. By weight, it could be carried by a 10-wheel lorry, but by quantity we may need something as large as a train to load the mountain of banknotes.

The Bt1,000 banknote is 16.2 centimetres long. If 76 million of them were laid end to end in a horizontal line, it would be 12,312 kilometres long. That is almost the same distance from Bangkok to San Francisco, California, 12,755 kilometres away.

Let's pile up the banknotes vertically. The height of Bt1 million worth of Bt1000 banknotes is 12.5 centimetres. Thaksin's assets would be 700 metres higher than the summit point of Mt Everest, which is 8,848 metres above sea level.

At that height, all of the world's tall buildings don't look so tall. The world's tallest - the Burj Khalifa in Dubai - is only 828 metres.

The height of other buildings, such as the Taipei 101 at only 509 metres high and the Shanghai World Financial Centre at 492 metres, would not even qualify compared with the height of Thaksin's money.

Seventy-six million banknotes would cover 88,646.4 square kilometres - or nearly half of the area of the northeastern region of Thailand, or a little bigger than the area of the southern region of the country, which are 168,854 and 70,715 square kilometres, respectively.

Let's think about the money in economic terms. The Bt76 billion - or US$2.3 billion - is bigger than the combined gross domestic products of East Timor and Bhutan, the size of whose economies are $498 million and $1.36 billion, respectively.

If Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva wanted to spend the money to implement his "helicopter money" policy, the 67 million Thais would receive Bt1,134.33 per head, more than half of the Bt2,000 allowance Abhisit allocated to the population when he took power last year.

Well, such an amount is nothing to the rich, so let's give the money to the poor. If the government gave it to all households with an income of only Bt21,135 per annum, a total of 3,595,930 households would benefit from Thaksin's money. However, that might not be a good idea for the government, since the people in these households would have Thaksin in mind forever.

Let's try something else that might really contribute to the economy. What about putting the money into the government's stimulus package? Back to the calculator: Abhisit allocated Bt119 billion for "stimulus package 1", so the Bt76 billion is 63.87 per cent of that package. The government could invest in a lot of projects. The money is really a significant amount for the economy.

-- The Nation 2010-02-26

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[quiksilva]

Any one have any idea on when the ruling is likely to be made?

[george]

Any one have any idea on when the ruling is likely to be made?

It will start around 1.30 - 2.00pm, but will take several hours before the whole verdict it read out.

[slim]

THAKSIN'S D-DAY

Majority of Thais believe in judges, but 1-in-5 doubtful

By The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The majority of people in the greater Bangkok metropolis still have confidence in the judiciary despite negative news about the justice system, a public opinion survey by Assumption University has found.

A total of 53.8 per cent of respondents said they had confidence in the judiciary's independence and immunity from any form of intervention, according to findings by the university's Abac Poll released yesterday.

But another 21 per cent of those surveyed said they had no confidence - while the remaining 25.2 per cent declined to comment on the issue.

When asked if recent rumours of bribes being offered to judges would affect confidence towards the judiciary, 52.9 per cent of the respondents said they did not think there would be any negative impact -compared to 23 per cent who expected some negative impact.

The survey was conducted among 1,106 people aged 18 and over living Bangkok and the surrounding provinces, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of the respondents, 21.2 per cent identified themselves as supporters of the current government, 18.6 per cent as non-supporters, and the remaining 60.2 per cent as neutral.

I'd like to see the results of a poll carried out anywhere 50 miles north of Bangkok.

[gotlost]

When they announce it.

[dillon]

Every single voter has to at some point take responsibility for this mess. And it is a mess. What I do not understand is why people would riot?? - now.

A democratically elected leader has been deposed...then convicted of crimes ,,,fled the country in fear of his life(etc). Fourtunes wre seized, fingers pointed, "democrats" were 'appointed' and everyone is supposedly being held accountable...including ex wife who is either part of this or not and children etc etc.

The court will rule.....thats the law of the land...agree or not we all ahve to accept this or this will never move on.....

Anyone who wants to think that they have been done by the "democratic process" surely must swallow their personal views, accept the ruling and for fks sake move on.

[Loz]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

:D

[Robbie Dye]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

:D

When we see our reserves reduced by 30 percent in the last 2 years we all cry, I agree. The future though is even bleaker as the pundits forecast 31.50 Baht to $ by the end of the year, and the way the lovely quid is performing against the dollar right now I am afraid that we will be looking at THB 45 to the Pound before long. maybe the exit of the labour party in May will help, but a lot of damage as been done. I will get off my political soap box but we are in for a rough ride I think

[mca]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Yeah my options are hang on a while or stick a new set of tyres on my current car.

[moetownblues]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

The baht has already fallen against Australian dollar today and I expect it to drop further in the next week.

[kiwikoppy]

at 08:45 a black mercedes with blinded windows was travelling on the cheangwattana express way, most likely heading to the new ministries office.

The car was surrounded by 5 fortuner and landcruiser military police cars and around 6 motor bikes.

Behind it followed a line of 5 other blinded cars, followed by around 10 press vehicles.

Not sure if it is related, but i presume it is the first judge, finishing his court sentence and travelling to the ministry for protections!

[lucjoker]

Where are Shinawatra kids today?

By The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The three children of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and his ex-wife Khunying Pojaman na Pombejra are not attending the much-awaited reading of the verdict today on their Bt76-billion frozen assets.

None of them is travelling overseas or making any statements after the Supreme Court's verdict has been read out, their publicists say, adding: "They are at a safe house in Bangkok."

The reading of the verdict is expected to begin at 2pm today, once the judges convene at 1.30pm.

Meanwhile, Thaksin will be addressing MPs and Pheu Thai Party members via a phone-link at the party headquarters. Leading figures expected to be there include former premiers Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Somchai Wongsawat - Thaksin's brother-in-law - along with his wife Yaowapa, Thaksin's brother Payap and sister Yingluck.

Thakin's live messages will also be broadcast from 9am on a satellite channel and the website run by his two children.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's whereabouts are being kept confidential due to security concerns.

A war room has been set up at the Democrat Party's headquarters, where the situation will be monitored all day and daily meetings will continue "until the situation is eased". Most Democrats and party MPs are advised not to go to the courtroom, except for former leader Banyat Banthadthan, who is a lawyer. The war room's operations and the Democrat Party's daily meetings will be coordinated with a situation-monitoring committee set up by the government.

Army chief General Anupong Paochinda is on standby at the Army Headquarters, as are commanders of the Navy and the Air Force.

The three core red-shirt leaders - Veera Musigapong, Nattawut Saikua and Jatuporn Promphan - are at the People Channel TV station at a shopping mall on Lat Phrao Road and are expected to make statements after the verdict is read out.

-- The Nation 2010-02-26

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His ex-wife is in a safe house in BKK ????????

What about her jailtime ?

Is it allready forgotten?

I saw her "entre' " on the thai news,she was treated as a queen !

Everyone bowing as slaves (also police and military)

Is this normal?

[VegasVic]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

:D

When we see our reserves reduced by 30 percent in the last 2 years we all cry, I agree. The future though is even bleaker as the pundits forecast 31.50 Baht to $ by the end of the year, and the way the lovely quid is performing against the dollar right now I am afraid that we will be looking at THB 45 to the Pound before long. maybe the exit of the labour party in May will help, but a lot of damage as been done. I will get off my political soap box but we are in for a rough ride I think

The Dollar is nearly at 31.50 vs. the baht right now! The very real danger in holding the Euro or the Pound right now is that it is not out of the relm of possibility that the Euro, Pound and Dollar will all be on par by the end of the year The Yen might be your best bet to hold for your funds offshore for the remainder of this year, the Dollar will be OK but only by default due to the Pound and Euro troubles.

[walterego]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

Yes, What do people think?

This is a massive increase to the Thai economy (given a verdict that takes the whole pie) Do punters think this will make the Baht suddenly rise or drop?

[sharecropper]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

:D

I know. I am stringing out my last money transfer, and do not want to transfer at these levels. It'll be the soup kitchens, begging and 7/11 holdups next for me.

[slim]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

:D

When we see our reserves reduced by 30 percent in the last 2 years we all cry, I agree. The future though is even bleaker as the pundits forecast 31.50 Baht to $ by the end of the year, and the way the lovely quid is performing against the dollar right now I am afraid that we will be looking at THB 45 to the Pound before long. maybe the exit of the labour party in May will help, but a lot of damage as been done. I will get off my political soap box but we are in for a rough ride I think

Somewhat off topic but this is regrettably all too probable. If the polls are to believed and there's no outright majority winner in the forthcoming UK elections the GBP will plummet.

If the BOE announce further quantitative easing and the FED starts to tighten monetary policy the GBP is doomed. We could be at 45 THB/GBP before March is out with little to stop the slide (other than a serious escalation in the current local political climate)

[CockneyGit]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

I'm hoping for the opposite. Heading to UK in March and spending Baht...!!!

[george]

Timeline on Thaksin's Judgement Day - real time updates from The nation

Morning: About three companies of policemen are deployed to guard the Suprme Court compound and surrounding areas.

Red Siam rally site at Sanam Luang sees sparse crowds following last night rally. Organisers ask protesters to reassemble in the afternoon to monitor the verdict.

Security measures stepped up at Parliament, Government House, Si Sao Thewes residence of chief royal adviser General Prem Tinsulannonda, Chan Song La residence of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's family and the stock market.

7.30 am: Nine Supreme Court judges arrive in a bullet-proof car. Tight security at court building,

8.30 am: People's Channel, pro-Thaksin satellite broadcasting, airs a taped Thaksin speech urging his supporters not to assemble at the court building.

Thaksin said he would monitor the live broadcast of the verdict in Dubai and that none of his family members would attend the verdict session.

In his speech and his Twitter message, Thaksin insists on his innocence, arguing he is not a cheater and that his wealth has been honestly earned and not ill-gotten gains.

9.30 am: Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban says the situation is stable. He pledges to safeguard the judges in doing their job. He ensures the public that the government has the contingency plan to deal with any disturbances.

He also allays the concern for a coup, saying he guarantees there will be no military intervention.

-- The Nation 2010-02-26

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[george]

TAN_Network: INN reporting that DAAD radio stations in Chiang Mai are inciting followers to arm themselves.

-- Tan Network 2010-02-26

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[hungryINbangkok]

"Thaksin's lawyers have argued that the frozen assets actually belong to his former partner, their children and other family members and cannot be seized by the government"

I love this argument. Bolivian drug cartels should pay attention....might save millions on laundering bills.

[TAWP]

TAN_Network: INN reporting that DAAD radio stations in Chiang Mai are inciting followers to arm themselves.

-- Tan Network 2010-02-26

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

Now if anyone have doubts if these thugs are peaceful or not...

[BlueSmurf]

Can people in Chiang mai post here if there are any problems as the day unfolds as I'am going there today and would like to avoid any problem areas..Thanks Dave

[BlueSmurf]

TAN_Network: INN reporting that DAAD radio stations in Chiang Mai are inciting followers to arm themselves.

-- Tan Network 2010-02-26

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

Now if anyone have doubts if these thugs are peaceful or not...

Please post any updates ref. problems occurring in Chiang Mai as the day unfolds.I'am on my way over later in the day..Thanks Dave

[SomchaiFuhlang]

"The case centres on proceeds from the sale of Thaksin's telecoms company, but goes to the heart of the rifts that have split Thai society since he was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and forced into exile."

"Thaksin is living abroad, with his main base in Dubai, to avoid a jail term imposed in absentia in 2008 for corruption relating to a deal involving land owned by his ex-wife."

Wow! This article couldn't be more biased if it tried. Let's sift through the crap, shall we?

Firstly, Thaksin wasn't "forced into exile", he refused to return to Thailand to face charges made public as the result of the military coup that deposed him in 2006. That's why Thaksin was tried in absentia.

Secondly, Thaksin is not "living abroad". He is a convicted fugitive and is now and has been on the run.

Thirdly, "Thaksin's telecoms company" wasn't just his to sell. <snip> Of course, Thaksin also circumvented paying taxes for this and other transactions.

I personally feel the Thai court should rule to keep all of the funds as from what I've read over the years, Thaksin had been pilfering money from Thailand since taking office. If the judges cave in, or accepted bribes, and return the ill-gotten gains then Thaksin will just keep financing the Red shirts to continue the hate and discontent and keep Thailand in turmoil.

A side note is that the Red Shirt protestors arrived here in the heart of Isaan last night. Why they came to our small umpher in jungwat Roi Et is surprising. I stay away from all such Red or Yellow shirt rallies, but a "fuhlang" friend who lives near the umpher offices said it was quite noisy and lasted into the wee hours.

OK Thai judges, it's all up to you. Nip this Thaksin problem in the bud!

Edited February 26, 2010 by soundman
Please do not make reference to the Monarchy in political discussion.

[george]

Update:

Members of Shinawatra family will not be attending the verdict reading; only their lawyers will be present at the courthouse today

-- TAN Network 2010-02-26

[SomchaiFuhlang]

"Update:

Members of Shinawatra family will not be attending the verdict reading; only their lawyers will be present at the courthouse today"

I'd be really surprised if they showed their faces at the courtroom. I'm sure some, if not all, of them are complicit in Thaksin's ill-gotten wealth.

[brianb1944]

Am I the only one waiting for the baht to take a whacking great hit against the pound so I can transfer some money at more than 50 bhat to the pound.

Pound and Euro have been tanking since late last year. Lets hope a little "hiccup" is in the wind!

The baht has already fallen against Australian dollar today and I expect it to drop further in the next week.

Every cloud has a silver lining, I am Aussie living in Chiang Mai, income mostly from Oz. Due to the sad state of the pound, I can take my wife to meet my UK rellies at a bargain price.