Thailand's 'red Shirts' Gear Up For Decisive Week

[webfact]

Thailand's 'Red Shirts' gear up for decisive week

by Danny Kemp

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Supporters of Thailand's fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra started trying to build momentum Sunday for a mass rally next week that could decide the fate of their anti-government movement.

The so-called "Red Shirts" say they expect hundreds of thousands of people to gather in the capital Bangkok on March 14, just over two weeks after a court seized 1.4 billion dollars of the deposed tycoon's fortune.

Organisers are holding a series of meetings beginning Sunday to motivate protesters across the country, most of them from the rural poor, who resent what they see as an elitist and undemocratic government in Bangkok.

"I would like to urge those who love democracy, justice, equality, and those who think that I have been bullied without mercy and humanity, to join the rally," Thaksin wrote on Saturday on Twitter.

The rally promises to be the biggest since last April, when up to 100,000 Reds protested against current prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, followed by riots which left two people dead and derailed a major Asian summit.

The Reds have held a string of protests since another court decision removed Thaksin's allies from government and brought Abhisit to power in December 2008, after a blockade of Bangkok's airports by rival, royalist "Yellow Shirts".

Thaksin was toppled in a military coup in 2006 and is living in exile, mainly in Dubai, to avoid a two-year jail sentence for graft imposed in absentia. He has vowed to fight the confiscation of his wealth.

The country remains deeply divided between the largely Thaksin-loving Reds and the Yellows, who view Thaksin as corrupt.

On Sunday, provincial Red Shirt leaders were set to meet the rank-and-file in Rayong, a major industrial hub near Bangkok, with other meetings throughout the week in central, northern and western Thailand, organisers said.

"Our aim is to topple the government, to force them to make a choice between suppressing us and stepping down," senior Red Shirt leader Jaran Ditsatapichai told reporters earlier this week.

But the number of supporters they actually draw to Bangkok will be crucial in deciding whether the Reds have any chance of pushing out the government before Thailand's next elections, due in December 2011.

Paul Chambers, an expert on Thailand at Germany's Heidelberg University, said the demonstration and its ability to match last year's turn-out will be a "crucial event to prove whether their cause will persevere."

"Whether these numbers reach higher than 100,000 will be a good measure of their continuing political potential," Chambers added.

The Red Shirts said earlier this week that they expected anywhere between 400,000 and 600,000, with many coming from Thaksin's stronghold in the northeast in thousands of buses and pick-up trucks.

The government is deploying extra troops and police, set up checkpoints around the country to look for weapons and says it may impose harsh security laws if the protests become violent.

"Yet a violent outcome will only breathe new life into a Red Shirt movement looking to expand," said Chambers.

Their success will also depend on building support among Bangkok's traditionally pro-Yellow Shirt middle class, and in the ranks of Thailand's powerful army, which so far has backed Abhisit.

Abhisit himself has said he will push ahead with a trip to Australia from March 13 to 17.

"The Reds don't have big mobilisation power in Bangkok. They don't have the resources," said Arnaud Leveau of the Research Institute on Contemporary South-East Asia.

"They will have to put in place a huge logistical operation to get people in from the provinces and feed them when they are in Bangkok," he added.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-03-07

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[wasabi]

Maybe they should just go home?

[johncitizen]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

[scorecard]

Maybe they should just go home?

Just wondering how much money they will get from thaksin to support this protest.

One possibility is that if this protest is a fizzer, then will that in fact pretty much be the end of protests?

If that's in fact true, then maybe thaksin (who has been quite vocal in the last few days to try to muster up a big protest) would need to provide a very big budget.

Edited March 7, 2010 by scorecard

[Jingthing]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

Already making excuses for a failed event, huh?

[johncitizen]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

Already making excuses for a failed event, huh?

More like praying for a peaceful outcome. The bigger the crowd, the less the government will be willing to launch a violent crackdown. Those of you who don't want blood in the streets should be hoping for a big turnout as well.

[hammered]

See the rice farmers have said that they will rally after the red one and not at the same time

[animatic]

A big crowd just means more areas to be securely covered and

more areas for agitators to harass a stretched out security force,

from behind a wall of women and monks and instigate a scene.

If the instigation is missed and only the confrontation after it's started

then it could be spun to look worse for security.

The smaller the crowd the LESS stress for the security forces,

and less obvious power to the red moves. And concurrently

the greater likelihood that press cameras will see instigation

and confrontation if that happens and compare the two for the world to see.

Then we more likely see who is causing the problem and how much,

and how composedly the security is dealing with the provocations.

Noting the red numbers keep dropping even in THEIR fevered pronouncements:

Seems many people are seeing this violent potential as likely scenario

and as such decide to opt out of the red game plan. Better a long life with

all body parts intact, than to limp for decades with a war story about

going up against the gov. back in the day.

[frodo]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

Already making excuses for a failed event, huh?

More like praying for a peaceful outcome. The bigger the crowd, the less the government will be willing to launch a violent crackdown. Those of you who don't want blood in the streets should be hoping for a big turnout as well.

Much like the violent crackdown a year ago by the government during "Black Songkran" which saw the death of two innocent people by the red shirts? The only violence committed thus far has been the UDD/Red Shirts, or whatever names they go by.

Keep it small. If the reds once again become violent and begin attacking innocent landowners or mosques, the situation can be handled by much better from the government without violence. Force, yes, violence, no.

[animatic]

Force, yes, violence, no.

No other choice if things go bad, security led violence plays into their plans.

Edited March 7, 2010 by animatic

[gotlost]

When is the last time that we did not have a DECISIVE WEEK in the media?

[hammered]

The hub of decisive weeks

[Siripon]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

Absolute nonsense, Thai TV stations carry regional reports every night, major newpapers have branches and printing houses in the north and Issan, nearly every red rally is reported, including the Chaiyapum blockade of Newin's Buriram football team and the small rally at Ya Mo statue in Korat.

Edited March 7, 2010 by Siripon

[Ricardo]

When is the last time that we did not have a DECISIVE WEEK in the media?

It's a bit hard to decide, isn't it ?!

[hammered]

The problem is that in order to get any attention from the Thai press at all, the Reds need to gather in Bangkok, which is out of the price range of the majority of the UDD's current supporters. Thus, they need to waste a lot of valuable funds on paying for the movement of all these people. If the Thai media were to guarantee as much attention to a rally in Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen I reckon they'd have no problem reaching the million mark. This time, however, I'm not so sure...

Absolute nonsense, Thai TV stations carry regional reports every night, major newpapers have branches and printing houses in the north and Issan, nearly every red rally is reported, including the Chaiyapum blockade of Newin's Buriram football team and the small rally at Ya Mo statue in Korat.

But to know that you have to watch Thai TV

[webfact]

UPDATE

Thailand's 'Red Shirts' kick off decisive week

by Danny Kemp

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Around 3,000 supporters of Thailand's fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra demonstrated on Sunday a week ahead of a crucial mass anti-government protest.

The so-called "Red Shirts" say they expect hundreds of thousands of people, mostly the rural poor, to gather in Bangkok on March 14 -- just over two weeks after a court seized 1.4 billion dollars of the deposed tycoon's fortune.

In an attempt to motivate protesters, who resent what they see as an elitist and undemocratic government, Red Shirt leaders have planned meetings throughout the week in central, northern and western Thailand.

On Sunday senior members of the movement met the rank-and-file in Rayong, a major industrial hub near Bangkok, where police said 3,000 Reds had gathered peacefully by 9:00 pm (1400 GMT) and were expected to disperse at midnight.

Around 1,300 provincial security staff were overseeing the gathering.

Next weekend's rally promises to be the biggest since last April, when up to 100,000 Reds protested against current prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, and ensuing riots left two people dead and derailed a major Asian summit.

The Reds have held a string of protests since another court decision removed Thaksin's allies from government and brought Abhisit to power in December 2008, after a blockade of Bangkok's airports by rival, royalist "Yellow Shirts".

Thaksin was toppled in a coup in 2006 and is living in exile, mainly in Dubai, to avoid a two-year jail sentence for graft imposed in absentia. He has vowed to fight the confiscation of his wealth.

"I would like to urge those who love democracy, justice, equality, and those who think that I have been bullied without mercy and humanity, to join the rally," Thaksin wrote on Saturday on Twitter.

The country remains deeply divided between the largely Thaksin-loving Reds and the Yellows, who view Thaksin as corrupt and are backed by the Bangkok-based elites of the palace, military and bureaucracy.

Around 200 mainly taxi-driving Reds besieged a Bangkok police station late Saturday after the arrest of Phornwat Thongthanaboon, a Thaksin supporter accused of posting a YouTube video warning of violence after the court ruling.

Police also said Sunday they had arrested a 23-year-old male student linked to the Reds, in connection with one of two grenade explosions directed at branches of the country's biggest bank on the day after the verdict.

Abhisit, who plans to push ahead with a trip to Australia from March 13 to 17, told local media that intelligence reports indicated the possibility of a sabotage next weekend, although organisers say the rallies will be peaceful.

"Our aim is to topple the government, to force them to make a choice between suppressing us and stepping down," Red Shirt leader Jaran Ditsatapichai told reporters earlier this week.

But the number of supporters they actually draw to Bangkok will be crucial in deciding whether the Reds have any chance of pushing out the government before Thailand's next elections, due in December 2011.

Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert at Germany's Heidelberg University, said the demonstration and its ability to match last year's turn-out will be a "crucial event to prove whether their cause will persevere."

"Whether these numbers reach higher than 100,000 will be a good measure of their continuing political potential," Chambers added.

The Red Shirts said earlier this week that they expected anywhere between 400,000 and 600,000, with many coming from Thaksin's stronghold in the northeast in thousands of buses and pick-up trucks.

The Reds' success will also depend on building support among Bangkok's traditionally pro-Yellow Shirt middle class, and in the ranks of Thailand's powerful army, which so far has backed Abhisit.

The government is deploying extra troops and police, setting up checkpoints around the country to look for weapons and says it may impose harsh security laws if the protests become violent.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-03-08

Published with written approval from AFP.

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